Palmer SixtyFour

Palmer SixtyFour
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  • Benchmarking: Are You Good Or Just Lucky?  [View article]
    What commodity index would you use as a benchmark? There are several, and market cap doesn't really apply, so they are weighted differently. Greenhaven CCI is an equal weighted index, and there are the standard Dow Jones-UBS, GSCI, Rogers, CRB, etc.

    Excellent article, BTW. I spent months learning about the various indexes, providers, and ETFs. Wish I had a summary like this to start with.
    Sep 15, 2011. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the SEC Should Look at Levered ETFs  [View article]
    If you're okay with ETNs there are DTYS and DLBS, which take bearish positions on 10- and 30-year treasury futures. The underlying contracts roll over every 3 months, so these are better for long term. I think they're good for hedging a fixed income portfolio against interest rate fluctuations.

    They're more complex, however, so make sure you understand how they work.
    May 1, 2011. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wake Up and Smell the Inflation  [View article]
    Yesterday the market bear
    Saw inflation that's not there
    It wasn't there again today
    Why won't it just go away
    Feb 15, 2011. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield  [View article]
    You can look at Robert Shiller's data for the S&P 500, and you'll see that dividend yields were generally higher than the 10-year going all the way back to 1871, up until about 1960.
    Aug 18, 2010. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • George Rahal: Contango Has No Effect on Commodity Returns  [View article]
    I can answer the second part of your post. There are some commodity ETFs and ETNs that do invest in longer dated contracts as the article suggests. For oil and natural gas there are the USL and UNL ETFs, which spread their holdings over the next 12 months. So effectively, they roll over 1/12 of their holdings from the front month to a one year contract, once a month, which reduces the amount of trading as Rahal recommends.

    There are also the Powershares ETFs and ETNs, which use a flexible rollover strategy that purchases up to one year contracts during contango, but rolls over to the near month during backwardation.

    These do seem to outperform their competitors, but I think there's a lot of room for improvement, and most commodity ETPs simply track the front month based indexes.
    Apr 4, 2010. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Random Is Microsoft's Random Browser Choice Screen in Europe?  [View article]
    Usually first and last are considered to be the most desirable positions in a list (primacy and recency effects). Look up 'serial position effect' in wikipedia.

    I have no idea if their numbers are valid, but tens of thousands of trials should give less than 1% standard error, which seems okay.
    Feb 23, 2010. 09:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment