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sethmcs

sethmcs
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  • FDA presses Reynolds American and Imperial Tobacco over marketing [View news story]
    Prove "natural" or "additive-free" are lower risk? Why? Both phrases are common English.
    Aug 27, 2015. 02:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks Suffer, Takes Bigger Global Share [View article]
    Strong dollar?
    Aug 27, 2015. 12:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Is Forming A Solid Bottom [View article]
    The problem with oil recovery is the contango effect of the futures. You can buy oil today and sell it in the future for a profit as long as you can store it. Contango encourages inventory building which makes the process longer and more painful.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Next For China? [View article]
    What is needed is a shock and awe stimulus package. Maybe a trillion dollars worth to turn the ship around. Either that or in the words of George W Bush, "this sucker is going down."
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Momentum And Day Trading Have Taken Over The Stock [View article]
    One accounting point. ACI will realized a huge gain on swapping the debt.
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, The Government Is Not Lying To You About Oil [View article]
    There are two kinds of demand for oil. Physical demand by refiners who actually take delivery and financial demand by speculators who profit from price movements. For years we have been brainwashed to believe that there should be a risk premium on every barrel of oil sold. That premium usually $15 to $20 bucks was dependent on things like a pipeline in Nigeria gets blown up or violence in the middle east etc. Now for the first time in a long time that risk premium has went negative. Instead of pricing in supply disruptions the market is discounting supplies once disruptions are removed. Negative price premium will last as long as supply is taken for granted. The North Sea discovery in the early 80s comes to mind as a time of negative price premiums.
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Announces Early Results of its Tender Offer for its 3.95% Senior Notes due 2018 and Increases Maximum Amount [View article]
    $50mm+ plus profit to fall to the bottom line. Buy back bonds is more profitable than selling ore. Good move CLF.
    Aug 14, 2015. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Yuan Depreciates Further: What Is The Endgame? [View article]
    I think the IMF is leading China into a trap. They are bending over backwards to get into the special drawing rights basket yet they are opening themselves to foreign manipulation by Wall Street, London and Frankfurt. How did the dollar become the primary reserve currency? Run absurd trade deficits buying mainly oil over a long period of time paying for it in dollars. Then insist that the dollars be invested in US Treasuries. Gotta spend a lot to win friends and influence others. China is structured to be a trade surplus economy. Unless they go on a buying binge, how will the yuan find itself on the balance sheet of foreign reserve banks?
    Aug 14, 2015. 01:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: This 5% Yielder Is On Sale, And Here's Why You Should Care [View article]
    When catching falling knives it is best to scale into positions over time. I expect the oil downturn to last up to three years. COP has strong support in the $50 price level. Next support is around $42 but the ultimate bear price would be $36. The way I am playing it would be: bought 200@ $49.69. 300@ $42 and 500 @ $36. 1,000 being a full position.
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. investigates Plains All American in California oil spill [View news story]
    Funny EPA accidentally spills a million gallons of mine drainage into a Colorado river. Does not immediately notify those that are effected and claims it will clean up itself. If a private company did that there would be criminal charges being filed in addition to stiff financial penalties. Methinks the clean up (by the rules the EPA would impose on others) should be paid by the EPA. Better yet, fly the whole Washington based staff to Colorado to clean orange iron deposits off of rocks with toothbrushes.
    Aug 8, 2015. 09:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Wage Growth Isn't As Bad As It Appears [View article]
    Medical benefits eating up all of the gains.....
    Aug 5, 2015. 09:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The U.S. Rate Conundrum [View article]
    The tantrum may not happen in the US but certainly will in the Emerging Markets.
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: More Thoughts On The Company's Recent Results [View article]
    No comment on the tender offer 2018 bonds at $.55 on the dollar? That deal could drop $40 - $80 on the bottom line. Or how about the fact S&P upgraded CLF from CCC to B. More debt reduction might lead to more upgrades.
    Aug 2, 2015. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sign That Better Times For Oil Are Right Around The Corner [View article]
    Perception is always more important than reality. Natural gas inventories spent the last year below the five year averages (until recently) and the price went nowhere. The same can be expected with oil until there is a significant increase in demand via China. Commodity busts that are supply driven last longer than busts that are demand driven. Waiting for demand to catch up to supply can take longer. My guess three bad years for oil prices. Nevertheless I am accumulating oil share and will do so for the duration of the down turn.
    Aug 1, 2015. 10:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural posts bigger than expected Q2 loss but sees H2 improvement [View news story]
    http://tinyurl.com/cm8...
    Jul 29, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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