TheHague

High Exposure to Equities? Be Careful Out There

Your # just got deleted from my book!


On Nov 01 08:16 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> drt ) If someone mentions the word “decoupling” to you, turn around
> and walk away, delete their number from your Blackberries and I-Phones,
> delink from their Facebook page, and block their Tweets and e-mails.
> Knowing this individual will be seriously injurious to your wealth.
> When the stock market rolls over, don’t expect to be able to hide
> anywhere, except in cash. The way all assets classes simultaneously
> piled into the “down” elevator at exactly the same time last week
> is proof of how highly correlated markets are these days. The causes
> are mega hedge funds with newly tightened risk controls and itchy
> trigger fingers, vast quantities of stock electro shocked by computer
> algorithms, and too recent memories of the bloodletting earlier this
> year. I have always viewed diversification as a great way to lose
> more money in varied places with more exotic sounding names. Remember
> the old saw that when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches
> cold? Now when the US says “katchoo”, the everyone else catches the
> H1N1 virus, AIDS, and the bubonic plague. The US has become on the
> canary in the coal mine that warns of deadlier global contagions.
> There is really only one trade these days. Is the world getting better,
> or not? Only the volatility will vary across instruments and countries.
> As much as I love China (FXI) and commodities for the long haul,
> when the US markets drop, I expect them to plummet twice as fast.

High Exposure to Equities? Be Careful Out There

I must say that since I have been trading this is the most hysterical I have seen from the bears! Rush must be writing this article incognito hoping that Armageddon happens just so he can be right and the rest of the world gets trashed! Rush says after the end of time! "Oh well too bad they did not listen to me! If they had we would be in better shape!" Then he turns to his producer and says "lets run another add"! My question is why run another ad? No one will have any money to buy your sponsors products because you were correct! Remember? Idiots, quit poisoning the world with your spew! Try being productive in a positive way instead of trying to be "First" with the EOW predictions! If you say a lie long enough and loud enough eventually it will become truth! Hitler loved that idea!

Try speaking something positive instead of the negative all the time! Just maybe it will have a good effect instead of the negative one you all seem to want!

I guess it is more important to be right instead of helpful!

Here's to good trading! Watch your own back and you will be fine!

Readers Pick the Top 20 5-Year Horizon Stocks

WMT? Nice try! I just sold my shares that I bought in March! I can now buy into them cheaper than they were when I bought them! I gave up! Their last Div. was not that great! I tried to believe, but some thing is not right there! I don't know what it is but it ain't cool!

My two cents? JNJ or PG!

Nominal vs. Real Gains

I have been reading and listening to the hand wringing with regards to the decline of the dollar. Yet every time the dollar drops my stocks such as PG JNJ GLD TS etc go up! I hate to say this but I almost look forward to the drop in value of the dollar! My wealth improves! All of these companies have a strong international presence. It seems to me my time would be better spent protecting my wealth by purchasing stocks that are integrated into the world economy so that there is a hedge for weakness in the dollar!

Why Choose Low Yield over High Yield Stocks?

I own CMO right now. Primarily because of its payout! Its share price appreciation has been good to this point as well. 16% appreciation for its share price plus a .56 dividend this coming quarter! However, I can see what this type of REIT is and that is a short play. I prefer JNJ, XOM, PG, etc. However, I agree with YoYoMama in that one has to be very careful in this market. It is unstable at best and the threat of a severe drop similar to March 09 and Nov 08 lingers. Watch your own back! Depend on your own wits and strategy! When the Pooh hits the fan you will be the only one around and then what happens? You get left with worthless stocks and an empty promise of a dividend that may or may not come! The only marriage I want is to my Bride of 32 years!

Thank you for your article. I read every post. You always give me things to think about and a solid perspective!

5 Tobacco Stocks that Should Thrive Despite Legislation

I am a former smoker. My breaking the habit was formed quickly and was very difficult to stop! Some times I find it difficult to invest in tobacco entities. However, whether I do or don't is not going to change the fact that smoking has been around since man first discovered he liked to puff on things and is not going to stop just because of our anti smoking fixation! The way I view it MexCom has it right! This is the perfect play for exposure to foreign investment and at the same time supporting an American industry that is the best in the world!

Gold Grabs Headlines as Silver and Platinum Shine

It always depends on when you bought. For me I was upside down 15% until this most recent surge that began on July 13th! Since then I went form being 16% down to a peak of +21% until the pull back the past two days! I bought silver and and miners for a hedge and it has worked beautifully! I love the miners! For the most part I have read and found that miners do better than the physical stuff! However, in the name of diversification one should never trust just one or two companies to make you better. Spread it out that way you cover yourself in case of disaster for one of your stocks! My example is UNCO. Cheap, but for a reason. It is a long play for sure! UNCO has tanked since I bought and does not appear to be some thing I can count on! However, NGD, PZG and SLV all have produced nicely and have covered UNCO. That still may come through if given enough time!

Long: NGD, SLV, PZG, UNCO.

Want to Own Silver? Forget About SLV

I have heard that both SLV and GLD have inventory accountability issues! It is just a matter of what you prefer. My "paper" SLV is up 20%!

I also have problems about owning the physical metal. Number 1: How to secure it. Number 2: if the system tanks and money is worthless then how would I safely redeem the physical metal? I mean if this scenario did occur presumably there would anarchy! When it became known I own the metals I think I would become a target! I buy and diversify with miners and other metal related stocks. I am up 40% with one miner and 20% with another. I am also down considerably with a small penny stock miner that I hope has a future. I guess that is why I diversify isn't it?

My point is that I think the industry that brings the precious metal to us does better than the physical stuff. I began trading in February 09! I bought SLV to hedge against inflation. At the end of the day it has worked as I hoped. However, if I knew then what I know now I believe I would have bought miners too! Better late than never. I still would have SLV because I like the volume it trades at which lends some liquidity to my funds in time of need!

In closing I have heard the "bullets, toilet paper and cigarettes" would be more valuable than almost anything should the system fail and anarchy ensue! My guess is all of those would be easy to secure and draw little attention from thieves. At least, that is, until Armageddon occurred and they discovered you had it. Then I would have the same worries as if I owned Gold! (smile)

Long: SLV, NGD, PZG, UNCO


On Sep 17 08:17 AM john1940 wrote:

> Is gold the same? I've used CEF because I thought they held bullion
> in the same amount as their stock issued. Now I wonder about GLD.
> Have to do more work.

Silver Trending Towards Backwardation Again

B__L S__T!

On Gold, Silver and Krugman's Misinformed Self-Congratulations

Bob 123
I have felt all along that there were no "good" choices when it came to the economic crisis! I have asked my anti bail out friends the same question's you are posing. They have the same answer's the posters in this column have. Which, to me, are not viable in that it is easy to sit here and spout idealist anti government intervention rhetoric, but the reality is that no one truly knows what would have happened with out the bail out! My guess it would be some where much further south of where we are now!

My thought has always been this. Why not calculate how much debt me and my family of four are in for the rest of our lives due to the bail out. Then divide that figure by four after accounting for life expectancy and write each of us a check. That would be done in lieu of giving the money to the thieves and idiots that catapulted us into this mess in the first place!

My over riding sense is that would have done more to stimulate this economy in real and measurable ways than giving the money to the banks and others who pissed it away on bonus's and lavish spending!

We, I mean all citizens, would have spent that money! Old habits die hard! That would have sent shock waves through the business communities! There would have been in a jump in business! Jobs would have been saved. I know we would have saved a chunk of the money too. That would help the banks as well.

Sadly all we did was give the stimulus to those who stole from us in the first place! Now I and my family have to pay for this! My daughters and their children will be paying for this forever!

Bad choices were all we were faced with! I agree with you. I would not want to find out if the "theory" of "let em fail" would work! I for one don't believe it would! Maybe we will still be able to put that theory to the test down the road when the commercial real estate s__t hits the fan!

For now the catastrophe has been averted! Lets hope the stimulus works! God help us if it does not!


On Aug 11 03:17 PM Bob 123 wrote:

> I respect and understand that, but what was the choice? Let the
> world financial markets collapse? Chaos and anarchy?
> What do you think would've happened if there was no bail-out?
> This could've made bread lines and soup kitchens of the thirties
> look like a church picnic.
> As one pundit put it, paraphrasing from memory : "These guys drove
> the economy into the ditch and are now bitching about the cost of
> the tow truck".

Three Thoughts on the Silver Market

Thanks for your honesty. I try to follow the truth. I like those seekers who having made an error can say I was wrong! You, my friend, have earned a listener!

SLV: Is It Solvent?

Some think Miners and other support industries are better than the actual stuff they mine! I read that they out perform gold/silver multiple times over! Still have to do DD though. The whole industry of precious metals is pretty volatile and your stomach had better be made of cast iron! I recently bought NGD and they have done well for me! PZG was another purchase but is sort of going side ways at the moment! There are alternatives to the rocks just keep looking! I still don't believe SLV is a bad way to go. I would have to view other evidence before dumping it! I just got back to profitability with it after a pretty long down stretch! Then I read these articles! I would have blown a gasket three weeks ago if I had read them. Now I am trying to be level headed and not do anything rash! You should too! Good Luck!


On Aug 05 03:42 PM mark joseph wrote:

> Every seems to agree that owning Silver is the way to go, yet most
> on this board say get out of SLV. What good is all this if no
> one talks about alternatives. The author of this piece wants to
> tell everyone there is a fire in the theater, then fall short of
> telling us where the exits are. What good is that.
>
> Please feel free to talk about what the "better ways of buying silver'
> are. Without that second a half of the puzzle, this tends to read
> more like an enticement for one of these get rich quick newsletters
> that we get that leave us short of answers unless we pony up for
> the info.

SLV: Is It Solvent?

After all is said and done how do any of us truly know that the company's, bonds, mutual funds and ETF's etc that we invest in every day are what they say they are? We all know individual's "fudge" their taxes every year to hide good and bad number's! Why wouldn't company's do the same thing? That being said we still invest and trade with out hesitation! Now, because of a couple of well written article's show up questioning SLV and GLD books we want to put them in jail! What a farce! Just sell the damn stocks and put the money in the ground! The only place anything is truly your own is your pocket! Out side of that we all live on fantasy. I might add we live pretty good on it!

I own SLV and I plan on buying more tomorrow first thing when the market opens. If it goes down I will buy more! Why, because news could break on JNJ just like it did for PG today and the price could fall through the floor! So why sell something that has made me money to this point for some thing that bad news could wreck in a heart beat!

One more thing and then I will quit! Monday I bought a company that appeared to be a solid dividend payer and pretty solid over all. Their share price had just dropped to a place that I felt good about so I bought! While I was pressing the buy key news broke about how this company had been down graded and one should not buy at all or if you owned then sell! Damn! I lost almost 20% of my money before I could not take any more. Today the shares dropped another 4%! The point in this was the "analyst" had been investigated and fined for corrupt practices on other deals! Why were we listening to him any way! He probably had shorts on the company and needed to make some money!

So you see none of this stuff we do is a sure thing! My guess the whole system is corrupted in some way! Keep your money or keep investing knowing that it is all a mirage! Try not to be greedy and take your money from the middle! The top is pretty hard to find and you will be constantly frustrated by it pursuit!

Thanks

Genco Shipping: Coming Out of Hibernation

I decided I needed a shipping company in portfolio! I also wanted a dividend! I really wanted a big dividend! (I like D's) I chose Capital Product Partners CPLP! I put my money down yesterday 08/03/09 and watched the share price go through the floor! I have lost about 15% of my money in a little over 24 hours! OUCH! It would have been nice if I had noticed the "downgrade" that had been published 'after' the trade! Oh well, you win some. You lose some! I guess now is the time to stand on the quote Buffet (I think it was Jimmy!) Anyway, the quote goes "You have not lost anything until you sell". True, but when will this price bottom? That is what makes this activity of investing so much fun, all the uncertainty! Then the resulting depression if you lose or the high when you hit a winner!

Silver ETFs: Inaccurate Inventory Records

There are so many ways to get ripped off when investing that it makes my head swim! Sure you can take the physical stuff! Then I have to lie awake nights wondering when I will be robbed! Worse yet wondering if I got the proper purity so it would be worth something other than a door stop! I could buy silver from Perth Mint. I am sure they are reputable, but what keeps them from fabricating quantities and quality! The list of possible ways to defraud me just goes on and on! I just buy SLV and hope things are going to be fine! After all isn't that what we do every day any way! No guarantees mon!