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redduke

redduke
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  • The Complete Guide To Understand Santander's Convulsion [View article]
    This is the best and a sober review of SAN. You can never trust the bankers!
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan prepares record budget [View news story]
    Will Japan reach primary budget surplus by 2020? If so, Yen's future is not all gloom and doom.
    Jan 11, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World Going Private: A Perfect Ending [View article]
    Tender the offer? The formal offer has not been provided yet!

    It is going to take many months to get the final deal done. I think shareholders should wait for a quarter to see the progress of its mobile games. The mobile games hold good promises. The stock has some upside left. Otherwise, why bother to go private? In the meantime, shareholders will be entitled another dividend opportunity.
    Jan 4, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is China On The Map Exactly? [View article]
    Rule of thumb #1
    Do not use a journalist report as a investment guide.
    Rule of thumb #2
    Always follow the money flows.
    Rule of thumb #3
    There are always two sides to a debate. They may both be right except for the differences in timing. Only a good investor works hard to figure out the timing.
    Jan 4, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung In Crisis Mode, Huawei Copies Xiaomi [View article]
    Cycle of life in cell phone business!
    Dec 29, 2014. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Of The Best: The Most Popular Thoughts From 2014 [View article]
    I have to think about Alan Greenspan's statement for a long time. The world now is really a dangerous place!
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not Natural [View article]
    Do not short JGB. Japanese central bank owns the bond market!
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Halliburton's Fourth Quarter To Take A Bite And Not Really From Cheap Oil [View article]
    Let me quote Canada's The Globe and Mail (Nov. 28, 2014)"In mid-September, more than a month before Goldman Sachs rocked markets with its prediction that oil prices would fall to $70 a barrel, Mr. Xie told a conference in Kuwait that he expected oil prices to nosedive to $60. The audience laughed. Now, he’s being invited back to speak again." Mr. Xie based his forecast on one simple fact: China slows down. The marginal demand of oil of last decade or so is disappearing.

    "King" dollar also depresses the oil prices. King dollar is a result of policy divergence among world central banks. In my view, king dollar may induce a recession in US eventually. If FED decides to do QE again, oil price may jump again. Will FED do QE again?
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Halliburton's Fourth Quarter To Take A Bite And Not Really From Cheap Oil [View article]
    The key to all these speculations: how long will the oil price stay at $60? Andy Xie on CNBC this morning with Ms Quick predicted 5 years. Ms Quick laughed at him. In my view, Andy Xie is very unconventional and surprisingly good. If he is right, HAL will does down to $20s and SLB to $60s. It is not time to pull my trigger.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Be Fooled By IBM Cloud Contract Announcements [View article]
    What is new out there that IBM can do? I see it boring at best.
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Biggest Asymmetric Trade Just Got Bigger [View article]
    For now, at least for a few more months, Chinese market is in a strong bull mode. Based on the record trading volume, I see the foreign money flows in as opposed pulling out. I disagree with your thesis.
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - Investigating Earnings Predictability [View article]
    I concur.
    Nov 30, 2014. 12:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Is Gilead Taking The Lead? - A Bullish Fundamental & Algorithmic Perspective [View article]
    True. Under-owned by hedge funds. Hedge funds are crowded into AGN buy out games.
    Nov 28, 2014. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Is Gilead Taking The Lead? - A Bullish Fundamental & Algorithmic Perspective [View article]
    1. Worry about AbbVie competition
    2. Worry about EPS peaking
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Irrationality: The Santander Case [View article]
    SAN is a global operator, with strongholds in South Am and UK besides Spain. So it depends the health of global economy. The global economy is not particularly healthy. South Am economy slows down considerably due to its reliance on commodities. Unfortunately SAN's presence in North Am is relatively small, even in comparison with BBVA. SC, just spun off from SAN, is suspect of sub-prime dirty laundries. SAN has some serious liabilities.

    I hold a large position in SAN for income. But I think it is a range-bound stock for years to come. I do trade it around a core holding.
    Nov 25, 2014. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
222 Comments
158 Likes