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  • There's More To Consider Than Just The Fed [View article]
    Well, as full-time trader since 2008 (pre-Lehman collapse), my own opinion of Bernanke is a sort-of Clark Kent wannabe. I doubt we would have got hit by another Great Depression anyway, there were enough smart traders around pre-Lehman collapse, but Bernanke appointed himself to protect the sheep with no trading skills. This is only personal opinion as a trained trader who has done enough research to understand something about markets over the last 100 years or so.

    What I believe is now happenening is that Great Uncle Ben realises that he has created a Frankenstein monster stampede, including sheep, bulls, pigs, and fund managers, all running full-tilt against natural market forces. And Great Uncle Ben created this monster, so IF it does go wrong, only one man is to blame, namely Great Uncle Ben. If the monster goes wrong, Bernanke will not be able to control the stampede, and the bears are watching with hungry eyes.
    May 25, 2013. 02:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Physical Gold Vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect [View article]
    I was in the thick of things the day gold crashed. I was already expecting it after reading the Cyprus central bank news. My own technical research led me to believe that support would be around $1526 (check a weekly chart of gold), Goldman Sachs mentioned $1530 if memory serves me correctly. Cut a long story short, I went long at 1526 and closed out at 1535 about 15 minutes later.

    Since then two important things have happened, the flash crash on the Dow and S&P caused by the fake tweet that the White House had been bombed (I had no open positions when it happened, but missed the opportunity to trade the V-bottom because I wasn't watching the screen at the time), and secondly the news that central banks are buying equities.

    As a short term and intraday trader using high leverage I have adopted this strategy over the last week or so: go long "A" e.g. gold and short "B" e.g. gold miners, where there is some fundamental or technical correlation between A and B. Or short one index, long another index, where the one index is obviously stronger than the other. In this way the trader is protected from flash crashes caused by anything, from robot traders to news releases.

    This is not the first time that I have used this strategy, and like everything else, it can go wrong on occasion, so the trader must have a "mental" stoploss in mind. The real stops on the platform that I trade on are so far out of the way that half my trading account is on margin, but my real stops have never been hit, ever.

    Call it "pair trading" or arbitrage trading or whatever, but this last week I made around 8% on my account.

    Back to gold, central banks had something to do with the gold crash and something to do with the rise in most global equity indices. Silver has crashed (more than once), gold crashed and I am pretty sure the equity indices will crash good and solid (not a flash crash lasting a few minutes). The only thing that I cannot tell you is when.
    Apr 27, 2013. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am A Trader: Six Stages To Trading Success [View instapost]
    good article, Jay. Another important factor to successful trading is mental alertness. I have noticed when computer algos are driving price, and when they are not. I would call myself a sniper, which is difficult when trading 20/24 hours a day. to watch a computer screen for hours on end and to make profit in 2 or 3 minutes takes determination.
    Mar 9, 2013. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The Danger Lurking After A Fiscal Cliff Deal Is Reached [View article]
    Good article. What I see watching multiple markets is money coming off the table after good runs. Profits are being banked ... but banked where ... no currencies are safe, neither is gold. Some sideline bets are being taken on risky stocks and high yielding risky currencies, but my guess is that these bets are at least partially hedged as we run into S&P and numerous futures expiry dates on 20 December. 'Fiscal cliff' and 'euro crisis' both add to this action. My bet would be to go long VIX at 14.00, if it gets there.
    Dec 6, 2012. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Electronic Cigarettes A Genuine Threat To Big Tobacco? [View article]
    As a long-time cigarette smoker, the closest I have got to an e-cigarette is a dinner guest who brought one along as a "joke", I thought at the time. No smoke, so what's burning? And then I remember an old friend who went onto nicotine stick-on patches in an effort to quit the real thing. She told me that the patches were costing her more than real cigarettes, but were better for her health, which sounded crazy to me. I am also a trader of equities, derivatives, indices, and occasionally forex, living in South Africa. BATS (listed as BTI on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange) has more than doubled in price (in rand or ZAR terms) since May 2010. I recall profiting from a short term trade in BTI, but bailed out far too early. In fact if I had bought and held, or even built a long position, I would have made a great investment. BTI is one of the strongest equities listed on the JSE, with a P/E ratio of around 21, not high when compared with another similar out-performing stock on the JSE, SABMiller (SAB) which has a P/E of around 26. BTI has actually made a higher return on investment than SAB since May 2010 to date. Let me say here that the South African government is making extremely loud (and louder) noises against smoking and alcohol, much in line with other first world governments, and that the existing legislation against illegal smoking and drinking is enforced. This brings in the bogey man of taxes collected on tobacco and alcohol. Much of this "sin tax" must be channelled into national health expenditure. for sure. Let me leave these closing comments:

    (1) when trading intraday, or making fast trading decisions, I believe cigarettes calm my nerves and give me better judgement.
    (2) tobacco is obviously a commodity, as is wheat, soy beans, gold, and silver, but an internet search has provided me with no information on where or how to trade tobacco.
    Dec 2, 2012. 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
    Brilliant piece, I think that we are getting closer to the truth. As an active trader, I was researching zero bound or ZIRP, until realising that my independent line of thinking is nothing new. Forget about famous economists and central bankers. The simple truth is that cash is nothing but "monopoly money" won by the monopoly game winner, when "monopoly" was more popular than poker as a weekend social game. Thinks: I hold all the money and a 'get out of jail free' card. Sorry neighbours, I own all your properties, utilities, and streets. "You are paying guards to to protect your cash".
    Nov 24, 2012. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy This Stock Before Gold Goes Higher [View article]
    and can anyone tell me why S&P downgraded credit rating in this stock? would be very interested to know, as it was mentioned in company results. thank you.
    Nov 8, 2012. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Federal Reserve Delivers 50% Higher Stock Market 'Pavlovian Premium' [View article]
    Need more evidence?
    Jul 28, 2012. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment