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  • Peregrine Semiconductor: Heed Management's Warnings Of Further Market Share Loss [View article]
    Hi Stephen,
    Many companies will have issues as this business moves from commoditized chips to custom modules. Skyworks CEO has repeatedly said that the supplier list for smartphones and IoE is coming down to just one or two contenders in many applications and the solutions are custom and exclusive. I can't say I had a good understanding of that dynamic until I saw Aldredge's slide presentation at the Oppenheimer conference. I wasn't there at the conference! Don't get me wrong! Mongo but pawn in game of life. The presentation is there for all to see (even a peon like me) via a link on Skyworks website. He explains very well why margins are going up. The business has become so complex that companies can't just sell chips anymore. They have to sell whole custom solutions to win the socket. Thus it's no longer commoditized. In fact it is my (probably worthless) opinion that a lot of pricing power in the business is shifting to the suppliers of smartphone components and away from the manufacturers of finished products. Explained very well by Aldredge in his presentation so I won't go into it.
    Something happened with Skyworks right when they made that earnings pre-announcement. Their revenue growth rate virtually doubled! Unbelievable. And not even in one of their historically stronger quarters! Usually Qtr 4 and 1 (fiscal) are the best. Anyway… I sound like a salesmen or huckster which I am not. I am long Skyworks and just trying to share with my fellow small individual investor buddies what I think is a great opportunity. It's not just about smartphones anymore. I'm not as familiar with Triquint or Avago. When I did my analysis I thoughts Skyworks was outgrowing them. When you mention Avago is growing revenue 90% are you including what they gained from the LSI acquisition.
    By the way Stephen thank you so much for all your articles over the years. They are wonderful. I was saddened to see that you are mostly PRO only now and you have written almost exclusively about banks. But that is your business and I wish you all the luck in the world. I enjoyed your many articles on retailers and tech companies. You've made some great contributions to this website. Thank you for that.
    Aug 20 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Gilead: Sentiment Is Too Positive Ahead Of Q2 Earnings [View instapost]
    Hi Charles,
    Thanks again for sharing your thoughts. I'm curious why you think it will go sub $80. Looks to me that there is resistance turned into support at $85 or so. Plus with trailing earnings up another $1.50 or more I would think it won't go through that support.
    Do you think it will go to $80 as a result of a general market selloff? Or technicals?
    I am a bull on GILD and I am long options. I am not blindly holding long though. I want to trade in and out. They way to go this earnings report was to sell puts and calls.
    GILD should see significant up and down moves as it is a cult stock that is significantly undervalued (by conventional valuation measures) that also is suffering from government intervention. A good stock for traders I think.
    I would lean towards adding calls if it hits the $85 area and wonder why you think it goes below $80.
    Thanks
    Jul 27 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Gilead: Sentiment Is Too Positive Ahead Of Q2 Earnings [View instapost]
    Yes. Everything you say is true. The more I think about it the two main factors holding the price down will not be resolved by earnings this quarter (no matter how good they are). I see potential government intervention in pricing and potential competition as the two main things depressing the price and they will still be unknowns after the earnings release. You have inspired me to be somewhat less long going into earnings although I still wouldn't be short.
    Jul 22 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Gilead: Sentiment Is Too Positive Ahead Of Q2 Earnings [View instapost]
    Charles
    Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I agree with you that when everybody is on the same side of the boat it's a good bet to get on the other side.
    But if we say hypothetically the great majority of investors do believe the analysts then how could the stock be priced in the mid 80's. If the company does earn near $8 this year as predicted and the market as a whole believed that story then the stock would not sell at the price it does. An 11 forward PE for that kind of growth? And over a 6% short interest? No way. There are still a lot of doubters or the stock would be $150 right now.
    You could be right and the stock could sell off. But I don't think everyone is a believer.
    Jul 21 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Down On Merck-Idenix Deal, But Little To Fear [View article]
    Why that price?
    Jun 9 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Down On Merck-Idenix Deal, But Little To Fear [View article]
    I wonder if we make it to the next support at $76.50 or so. Also that's the 50SMA. Just saying. I'd like to add some calls also but not sure if right here is the spot. Heavy volume today but I wonder if it's the final whoosh of this scare.
    Jun 9 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus On Skyworks Solutions [View article]
    Thank you for the response.

    The thing that is really interesting about Skyworks this quarter is that the guidance is that they will be just about doubling revenue growth rate. They have been growing year over year at about 12% but this quarter guidance is in the 20's. Also if you read or listen to the conference calls you find that gross margins rise very nicely as volume rises. That would explain the guidance for a 35% increase in earnings. Now with a lot of companies you might think guidance/schmidance but Skyworks usually beats. Just barely. Which is what you want. Their guidance has been spot on for quite a while now.
    But then we have the issue that the Naz is selling off a bit. That's why I like the LEAPS. Gives a guy a little time.
    One concern is the differences between SAW and BAW filters. I read a bit about it but don't grasp it. Any engineers reading this? BAW seem to be gaining in popularity.
    One other concern is how much stock the executives are getting. aAnyone know a site that has exact details of executive compensation plans?
    May 7 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus On Skyworks Solutions [View article]
    Do you think the Panasonic deal was factored into guidance?
    May 4 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyworks Solutions: Earnings Preview [View article]
    I read the articles.
    Do you know why the quote says SWKS has a 22 PE? You say it's 12.3. The article above also says SWKS PE is 22.19.
    Just comparing that 12.3 PE to TQNT, RFMD, BRCM, SNDK, QCOM or even INTC it seems low. SWKS is in the top echelon in growth but at the bottom in PE.
    And it seems like the marginal buyer can't quite make up their mind. That's the beauty of the market isn't it? The marginal buyer changes their mind frequently about what a stock is worth.
    This quarter will be interesting. Should be fun on Tuesday. I think they will beat on the top line and beat on the bottom line by a couple cents.
    I'm not taking into consideration the introduction of a dividend, the inclusion in the S and P 500 or the stock buyback or the increase in cash.
    Apr 18 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyworks Solutions: Earnings Preview [View article]
    User7809591
    Just curious. If SWKS beats 59 cents by a penny or two they will have about 25% earnings growth. Why do you think 9 is an appropriate PE for a 25% grower?
    Apr 17 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Encouraging Reasons Why This Stock Is A Superb Buy [View article]
    Surprise! Now we are getting a dividend.
    Mar 3 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Encouraging Reasons Why This Stock Is A Superb Buy [View article]
    Yes. I understand that. What I don't understand is "When is the mid-term?"
    I guess they probably want it to be nebulous. "Someday we will probably make $3 a share" tells us nothing.
    It's not the $3 earnings that confuses me. Nor the difference between earnings and cash. It is "what the heck does mid-term mean?"
    And I guess the answer is that it is intentionally nebulous.
    Thanks for taking the time to respond gamezaj. I appreciate it. But I don't think my question can be answered.
    Feb 27 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missing This Stock Means Missing A Lucrative Investment [View article]
    Hi Rob,
    I'd like to do some research on that. Where are you getting numbers from? Directly from financial statements? Or are there websites dedicated to the impact of executive stock compensation?Although I would say that even at $1.93 in earnings (and earnings growth averaging 34% since 2009) the stock is not expensive.
    Thanks
    Feb 26 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Encouraging Reasons Why This Stock Is A Superb Buy [View article]
    Yeah! Everybody short it! That would be awesome.
    Feb 20 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Encouraging Reasons Why This Stock Is A Superb Buy [View article]
    I still don't get it. Mid term means different things depending on context.
    But I do realize that $3 divided by 4 quarters is 75 cents.

    No worries though. I called investor relations today and left a message. I'll let you know if they reply.
    Feb 20 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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