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Ireland's Demographics Point to a Strong Consumer Cycle Through 2021
It seems that Beacon Asset Managers are really clutching at straws here, having found "the One" statistic of demographics that might compare well with other countries.
So lets all go out and buy some Ireland funds!!!
Never forget the talent of Irelands great literary figures! In this case fiction!
Sadly, the truth is Ireland is in for a decade or more of economic paralysis.
This comes after years of a boom based mostly on a construction bubble which was patronized by Government ministers who liked sharing the same bed or racecourse (so to speak) as the property developers.
From corrupt land re-zoning in 70's and 80's, to turning Irelands residential housing stock into an investment vehicle with excessive tax breaks for developers and investors, which created a feeding frenzy of speculation in 90's and 2000's, and uncontrolled and sometimes corrupt lending practices by the banks as the regulators slept at the wheel.
The morally corrupt Irish government has failed nearly completely to consolidate any gains made during the Celtic Tiger years.
Also, no mention of Irelands zombie banks, massive out-of-control government current account deficit, small illiquid and cozy stockmarket which is run like a fraternity, unemployment hitting 15%, and a new wave of residential mortgage defaults, personal loans and credit card defaults that will begin to happen shortly.
Contrary to this article consumer spending will be in the doldrums for a decade as the Irish sort out their negative equity, government spending, NAMA the bad bank etc..
and what will happen when Interest rate cycle returns in 2011, 2012 at latest?????
What will rising interest rates do to disposable income???
With no ability to devalue the accumulated debt true currency devaluation as Ireland is tied to Euro, the future in certainly not bright.
For anybody reading this article , who has the risk appetite for an ireland fund then I would suggest for smaller risk there lies much greater rewards in some of the asian funds, vietnam, south korea and of course china.
By the way, I love Ireland ,but not as a place to invest my money, I have transferred most of my money out of Ireland and out of dollar investments.
I believe Irelands Story will become a classic case study in Business schools throughout the world in how poor management, poor governance, a cosy form capitalism and lack of principles and morals in a complicit and shameless professional class, and a compromised media can result in the destruction of a countries economy for decades.
Oct 8 04:48 PM
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