Alex Strashny, Ph.D.'s  Instablog

 Peaceful Gains Core ETF
Financial advisory newsletters
with consistently high long-term returns
November 22, 2009
Update frequency: weekly

(For recommended allocations, see below.)

Dear subscribers,

As you know, we publish two newsletters — this newsletter, which follows exchange-traded funds, and a newsletter that follows the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), the retirement plan for federal employees. The performance of our TSP letter is independently verified by a company called TimerTrac.

However, until last week, our ETF letter was not tracked by TimerTrac because it followed too many funds. We have now modified our ETF newsletter to make its performance verifiable by them. This means that, from now on, the newsletter will follow 20 specific funds. These funds were chosen by us. In choosing them, we made sure that they cover different countries, sectors, and asset types. Stay tuned for more details .

To clarify that this newsletter now follows a fixed group of core exchange-traded funds, we are beginning to refer to it as "Core ETF".

Allocations
Conservative

• EWO (iShares MSCI Austria Investable Market): 100%

Balanced

• EWO (iShares MSCI Austria Investable Market): 100%

Commentary: Austria
Happy Thanksgiving!

Though stocks have slid slightly over the past week, the trend in stocks is still up. We are recommending a fund that follows Austrian stocks, since, in our estimation, it has the best uptrend.

Our method
We pick the mix of investments that maximizes the expected return while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk.

Performance
We have been writing our TSP newsletter for about a year. As of mid-October, its Balanced allocation had a one year return of 17.70% with a maximum drawdown of 4.01%. Read more about it.

Support Peaceful Gains
There are many things you can do to support Peaceful Gains:

• Keep up with the latest developments. Subscribe to our RSS feed.
• Let us know how we can improve our website or our newsletters.
• Let others know about how helpful our newsletters have been for you. Please recommend our newsletters to your friends and coworkers. Tell the world about us by linking to us, either from your website, in forums, or on social media sites.
• Send us a testimonial telling us what our newsletters have done for you and your investments.
• Have you made money by following our newsletters? Please donate to show your support and help keep the newsletters going.

Not sure which allocation to follow?
We offer just two allocations — Conservative and Balanced. You pick the allocation thats right for you. The only difference between our two allocations is that the maximum allowable risk is lower for the Conservative allocation. In other words, the Conservative allocation is safer. On the other hand, the Balanced allocation has a higher expected return.

At Peaceful Gains, we strive to create the best financial advisory newsletters possible. Please contact us at alex@peacefulgains.com with any comments or suggestions.

Thanks,
Peaceful Gains
http://peacefulgains.com/Home/

---

Peaceful Gains, LLC is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.

Copyright © 2009 Peaceful Gains, LLC. All rights reserved. By using our website (peacefulgains.com) or our newsletters, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use.

 Peaceful Gains Core ETF
Financial advisory newsletters
with consistently high long-term returns
November 15, 2009
Update frequency: weekly

(For recommended allocations, see below.)

Dear subscribers,

As you know, we publish two newsletters — this newsletter, which follows exchange-traded funds, and a newsletter that follows the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), the retirement plan for federal employees. The performance of our TSP letter is independently verified by a company called TimerTrac.

However, our ETF letter has not been verified by them. The reason for this is that our ETF newsletter could potentially recommend any of the approximately 1,500 funds available in the United States. TimerTrac could not verify the performance of a strategy with so many potential recommendations.

We are currently working with TimerTrac on modifying our ETF newsletter to make its performance verifiable by them. In all likelihood, this means that, from now on, the newsletter will follow 20 specific funds. These funds were chosen by us. In choosing them, we made sure that they cover different countries, sectors, and asset types. Stay tuned for more details once we have confirmed that TimerTrac is indeed verifying this newsletter, hopefully next week.

To clarify that this newsletter now follows a fixed group of core exchange-traded funds, we are beginning to refer to it as "Core ETF".

Allocations
Conservative

• EWM (iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund): 100%

Balanced

• EWM (iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund): 100%

Commentary: Malaysia
Happy International Day for Tolerance and World Hello Day!

Stocks have continued to climb at a solid pace. For example, during the past couple of weeks, we've made about 6% in VEA, which follows stocks from Europe and the Pacific region. We are now switching into another foreign stock fund, which also looks very strong.

Our method
We pick the mix of investments that maximizes the expected return while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk.

Performance
We have been writing our TSP newsletter for about a year. As of mid-October, its Balanced allocation had a one year return of 17.70% with a maximum drawdown of 4.01%. Read more about it.

Support Peaceful Gains
There are many things you can do to support Peaceful Gains:

• Keep up with the latest developments. Subscribe to our RSS feed.
• Let us know how we can improve our website or our newsletters.
• Let others know about how helpful our newsletters have been for you. Please recommend our newsletters to your friends and coworkers. Tell the world about us by linking to us, either from your website, in forums, or on social media sites.
• Send us a testimonial telling us what our newsletters have done for you and your investments.
• Have you made money by following our newsletters? Please donate to show your support and help keep the newsletters going.

Not sure which allocation to follow?
We offer just two allocations — Conservative and Balanced. You pick the allocation thats right for you. The only difference between our two allocations is that the maximum allowable risk is lower for the Conservative allocation. In other words, the Conservative allocation is safer. On the other hand, the Balanced allocation has a higher expected return.

At Peaceful Gains, we strive to create the best financial advisory newsletters possible. Please contact us at alex@peacefulgains.com with any comments or suggestions.

Thanks,
Peaceful Gains
http://peacefulgains.com/Home/

---

Peaceful Gains, LLC is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.

Copyright © 2009 Peaceful Gains, LLC. All rights reserved. By using our website (peacefulgains.com) or our newsletters, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use.

Peaceful Gains ETF
Financial advisory newsletters
with consistently high long-term returns
November 8, 2009
Update frequency: weekly

Allocations
Conservative

• XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund): 79%
• XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF): 21%

Balanced

• VEA (Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF): 100%

Commentary: Europe Pacific
Happy Veterans Day!

The funds that we recommended last week, including a fund that follows stocks from Europe and the Pacific region, have all made money over the past week. We are continuing to recommend them as they still have potential for growth.

Our method
We pick the mix of investments that maximizes the expected return while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk.

Performance
We have been writing our TSP newsletter for about a year. As of mid-October, its Balanced allocation had a one year return of 17.70% with a maximum drawdown of 4.01%. Read more about it.

 Peaceful Gains ETF
Financial advisory newsletters
with consistently high long-term returns
November 1, 2009
Update frequency: weekly

Allocations
Conservative

• XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund): 79%
• XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF): 21%

Balanced

• VEA (Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF): 100%

Commentary: Europe Pacific
Happy World Vegan Day!

Though stocks have been declining in the latter half of October, we believe that they still have a good potential for gain. In our Balanced allocation, we are recommending a fund that follows stocks from Europe and the Pacific region. Incidentally, in our TSP newsletter, we are recommending a similar fund. In the Conservative allocation, we are recommending stocks as well, though, in our estimation, they have a lower risk.

Our method
We pick the mix of investments that maximizes the expected return while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk.

Performance
We have been writing our TSP newsletter for about a year. As of mid-October, its Balanced allocation had a one year return of 17.70% with a maximum drawdown of 4.01%. Read more about it.

Peaceful Gains ETF
Financial advisory newsletters
with consistently high long-term returns
October 25, 2009
Update frequency: weekly

Allocations
Conservative

• Cash: 100%

Balanced

• HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund): 75%
• EWW (iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index Fund): 25%

Commentary: Bonds and Mexico (4)
Happy Halloween!

Both of the funds that we've recommended three weeks ago, a bond fund and a Mexican stock fund, have done well. We see more potential growth for them and are therefore continuing to recommend them this week.

Our method
We pick the mix of investments that maximizes the expected return while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk.

Performance
We have been writing our TSP newsletter for about a year. In the past year, its Balanced allocation had a return of 17.70% with a maximum drawdown of 4.01%. Read more about it.

 Peaceful Gains ETF
Financial advisory newsletters
with consistently high long-term returns
October 18, 2009
Update frequency: weekly

(For recommended allocations, see below.)

Dear subscribers,

It has been a year since we have launched our our company, and with it, our TSP newsletter. That newsletter follows the Thrift Savings Plan, the retirement plan for federal employees and the military. So let's take a look at how that newsletter has performed over the past year. Note that what I am discussing here is real, verifiable performance starting on October 15, 2008, the day that the first issue of our TSP newsletter came out. I myself am following the Balanced recommendations in my own TSP account. You are welcome to verify for yourself that the performance that I am describing is accurate.

Over the past year, out Conservative allocation had a return of 7.90%; our Balanced allocation had a return of 17.70%. While these are very healthy returns, it is important to remember that return is not the only measure of performance. Another important performance measure, which we take into account as part of our investment methodology, is risk. One common measure of realized risk is called maximum drawdown (MDD). MDD is the largest drop in equity, measured as a percent. Low MDD implies low risk. MDD for both of our allocations over the past year was just 4.01%.

The fact that the "buy and hold" approach to investing can be very dangerous has recently been brought back to public consciousness. MDD for the C Fund, which tracks the famous S&P 500 stock index, has reached 55.22% earlier this year! MDD's for the other two stock funds within the TSP are even higher — 57.43% for the S Fund ("Extended Market") and 60.89% for the I Fund ("Europe Pacific"). Despite the media reporting a recovery, as I am writing this, the three stock funds are still down about 25% to 30% off of their peaks. In my opinion, such huge drawdowns are not acceptable.

It is always important to have a solid investment strategy, especially in risky times like these. I believe that we have such a strategy. Ours is a scientific approach developed by a Ph.D. statistician. We consider not just the return but the risk as well. Our method adjusts to changing market conditions, is fully automated, and tells you exactly what to do. If you find our newsletters helpful, please help us spread the word by telling your friends and coworkers about it. Also, write about us on various blogs and online forums.

Thank you! Now, on to this week's allocations...

Allocations
Conservative

• Cash: 100%

Balanced

• HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund): 75%
• EWW (iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index Fund): 25%

Commentary: Bonds and Mexico (3)
Happy birthday to Peaceful Gains (and to myself)!

Both of the funds that we've recommended two weeks ago, a bond fund and a Mexican stock fund, have done well. We see more potential growth for them and are therefore continuing to recommend them this week.

Our method
We pick the mix of investments that maximizes the expected return while not exceeding a fixed maximum risk.