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Chris Foster

Chris Foster
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  • It's Time For Apple To Buy BlackBerry [View article]
    Didn't even read the article, the title was enough... I'm still laughing because this will never happen.

    Alpha crazy, Rimm $50-70 a share... lol that would be 45 times free cash flow. Dominant force worth trillions. lmao. I have a suggestion, liquidate all your holdings and go all in on Rimm, take out a second mortgage, and cash in your parents life insurance, in fact kill one of them just so you have more liquid cash and buy RIMM. 500% return it's worth it!!!

    Don't forget changing your name and your stock ticker doesn't mean that you are a new company with none of the old problems. If they put together two rolling quarters of revenue growth and profit, not slowing of revenue decline and lower losses, I'd be a bull. But this company in this status in this market, represents a whole hell of a lot of downside risk. That's just my opinion, but gamble if you like.

    *** I have no positions in this company at this time, however I do plan to short it based on price and timing opportunity ***
    Mar 7, 2013. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The New Fruit In Town [View article]
    Spoken like a true person that hasn't even touched a Z10.

    The more objective thing would be to realize that the mobile landscape for power users has been leveled so much of the past 18months. None of the "high-end" phones run circles around another in the same class. Its coming down to user preference and functionality.

    I'll say good luck to Rimm, but lets be honest they are in a punch-bug driving up Mt. Everest.

    ***disclosure short RIMM through put spreads in client accounts.
    Feb 13, 2013. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The New Fruit In Town [View article]
    LOL started a new company of the 30th??? Changing your name and marketing strategy for 2 new devices doesn't constitute starting a new company. But if you want to look at like that ok, how many entrepreneurs a year start a business and close it within 2 years? A LOT. Why... lack of sales and market penetration and here's the key... PROFITABILITY.

    Rimm is worth more $5 but definitely not worth $14, not at there current and increasing burn rates. Put together a few good consecutive qtrs and definitely I would go long, but the risk here is too high. Not only do the phones have to sell now, they need to continue to sell. Not only do they have to turnover their enterprise clients, but they have to win back the consumer. All hard things to do when nearly every "technical review" (not some person who hasn't even touched one telling you how good it is) has rated the phones as being bleh. Not bad, but most likely not good enough to wow people back into the berry house. Not to mention the late release of the phone really limits their sales potential overall. Had these came out in December they could have sold millions on impulse buys. Now with those consumers touting S3s, Lumias, and I5s... There is only so much of the pie to go around...
    Feb 13, 2013. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The New Fruit In Town [View article]
    Sad thing is when it comes to value you have to consider today's value vs tomorrow's value. You may think RIMM is a bargain here, but you would you think the same thing in 2yrs, when/if the new phones fail to RE-GAIN consumer adoption, and RIMM is forced to layoff (creating restructure charges), and close production factories (more charges)? RIMM may have a patent portfolio that is worth quite a bit to somebody, so it's definitely not going to 0. But without consumer adoption of their products there is no way this stock will ever stay in the teens.

    ***disclosure short RIMM through put spreads in client accounts.
    Feb 13, 2013. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Z10 Takes BlackBerry Higher [View article]
    LOL looking back yea that part was off, I didn't quite mean it like that it sounded. No offense to any Canadians :)
    Feb 6, 2013. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Z10 Takes BlackBerry Higher [View article]
    LOLOLOL Love the comments... So bullish on a product that isn't even available. Rimm can do a 100% turnover of all of their enterprise customers and still not do the numbers that SSNLF and AAPL are doing. Key thing for them is to attract "CONSUMER" customers, which good luck with the amount of app support in IOS and Android, on top of that for the past few years that is what they are used to having migrated from Rimm. Tack on product launch delays, now possibly missing the 1st qtr all together after missing the holiday season. Factor in the Lumia, Droid, Galaxy, & I-phone sales on 2yr contracts... how many consumers you think are left to buy high-end smartphones???

    Wouldn't be long this stock for anything in the world at this point. They would have to prove themselves 2 rolling qtrs to get me interested. It's better to buy at $20 on its way to $30 then to buy at $16 on it's way to $10, because this is a stock you can't really avg down on, if BB10 fails... Rimm becomes a patent story and you are not going to get anywhere near this valuation.

    Aside from all that, lets not forget they are still bleeding cash, R&D costs are on the rise, there is obviously some sort of issues with the devices and/or hardware for the multiple delays, enterprise sales are not going to happen as fast as everyone thinks due to testing and security implementation, and finally in regards to "Selling out" "Greatest demand" "Record back orders" and "Best Canada launch ever". Look at the numbers people, most stores got 5-10 units and had sell thru times of 2-3 days, backorders at most stores are no more than 30 units, and how many people live in Canada with 4G service???

    Bottom line if you're long, use a stop loss or simply buy/sell call spreads. I see a ton more downside risks than upside potential at this point in time. Just my two cents for everyone.

    ***Disclosure I am long put spreads on BBRY thru client accounts.
    Feb 6, 2013. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday's First Public Quarter Shows Bullish Case For Investors [View article]
    LOL LOL LOL, I was going to comment in-depth but I the comments before me were good enough. I've been short, in and out, not continuously since the week after it's IPO. WDAY is worth more the $5, I'll give it that much, but buying it here is just plain stupid in my professional opinion. Revenue growth is good for traders, but your headline was "Workday's First Public Quarter Shows Bullish Case For Investors". Investors buy "EARNINGS GROWTH", which if you've done your due diligence, in their SEC filing for the IPO, they stated that they do not see positive earnings within the foreseeable future. Mix high R&D cost, high cost of acquiring a customer, key adds to customer list take time to cultivate relationships (their own admission on the conference call, so don't expect to see big names every quarter), limited market dealing with large cap companies, and lastly I did my own fact finding... the software isn't all that great or user friendly. WDAY is definitely not worth $50, but is worth more than $5;albeit not much more. I'd cover 15-20% above IPO price. Bulls make money, bears make money hogs get slaughtered.

    ***DISCLOSURE*** I am short WDAY stock, short DEC puts, short JAN calls thru client accounts.
    Dec 4, 2012. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Stocks Look Ready To Run [View article]
    Soon I'll write an article "Coal stocks look ready to run... into the ground." Ok with that out of the way, I'll give you this you have merits in your writing, but what you totally overlook or give little credence too in your paradigm shift statement, is that the shift is taking place and in fact is accelerated by government regulation.

    Fact: coal's number one use in energy production, but we have seen the last coal fire plant built here in the US (barring any major catastrophe that dictates otherwise) You can make the case for Europe still building them, but even then let's be honest you have the largest energy consumer cycling off this abundant source. Can the EMs pick up the lost demand... possibly, but to speculate on the long-term energy policies of politically volatile countries is just not great risk/reward.

    NG Fact: Yes recoveries have come in lower than estimated, but the reserves have come in higher. Recoveries are based on current methods in use, remember technology evolves, and one of the biggest fluctuating costs in the fracking procedure is the chemical gwar, which several companies have already begun testing gwar synthetics and alternatives. NG is not going to stay in the $3 range forever. It may be stuck in the $2.75 (let's see how winter pans out) to $4 for all of next year, but NG will eventually be exported IMO, to counties that pay 3-4times per BTU than we do. Also using NG as a transportation fuel is catching on in most major cities. Look for your local busses to say CNG somewhere on the side. All go on a limb and say every (maybe one or two haven't but the big ones are definitely on board) major car manufacturer with substantial US sales have announced NG dual fuel engines that go on sale in the next couple years (Ford F-250 is slated for 2013).

    What's missing from the grand equation in the NG "ponzi scheme (LOL)" is national NG infrastructure for consumers. All in all I think to call fracking a ponzi scheme is gross mischaracterization, coal is definitely not a good investment on any plane in my opinion, but hey I could be wrong. Either way the risk is high and the reward... not really favorable.

    The mega rich guys buying coal... lol, you never know their true motives till the boat has sailed. I would look deeper into their 13Fs, share size, purchase frequency, sector holdings, etc, etc. Taking a position doesn't mean you're making a play on the company or sector.

    ***Disclosure*** I am not long or short any coal or NG stock at this time, am long energy service companies thru client accounts.
    Dec 4, 2012. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. Poses An Imminent Danger To Shareholders [View article]
    Just posted a comment on ANR and coal in another article, but I'll add something here.

    I don't think it's an attack article, but just an objective opinion based on certain trends and facts. Which I'll agree are sometimes not the best way to make investment decisions, but GMI does have some notes to draw concern.

    Reading between the lines of the recent tender offer here's what I see.

    Swapping convertibles for longer dated and significantly higher interest notes, means for whatever reason they we would rather have a larger debt burden at a higher rate than having those converts out there. To me I think it means one of 3 things. Either ANR anticipates a liquidity crunch soon and want to get the most favorable terms now, 9.75% (not favorable at all in this interest rate environment) and those were the only way to retire a series gain more cash and maintain their already negative watched junk rating, or they wanted to call them to prevent excess dilution in a spinoff or divesture/sell scenario, or lastly an unavoidable near term (within 12-18mos) restructuring. Draw your own conclusions on the merits of a trade verse an investment, long or short, but the news to me I don't think is in anyway encouraging to the longterm prospects of the company.

    Disclosure: Short ANR thru client accounts (at a much higher price), short weekly puts on ANR also.
    Nov 2, 2012. 02:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: Weak Met Coal Demand Could Impact Results [View article]
    Oh and a follow on to my comment something I forgot to mention. In the short term any loosening of EPA regulations on coal plants, which is essentially the more immediate death blow to the industry, will cause a short cover and speculation rally, but the overall direction at this point is similar to inefficient green energy technologies... past the point of no return and will eventually end in some form of restructuring.
    Nov 2, 2012. 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: Weak Met Coal Demand Could Impact Results [View article]
    Just a comment on ANR and the coal industry as a whole. Not necessarily saying one should be short ANR, full disclosure I am short thru client accounts, but being short the coal index etf (KOL) would be a better focus for this type of article. I am not short KOL but will be after the elections. ANR is a very large company with many moving parts and the ability to reduce costs and exposure through multiple avenues. But one thing to be true in my honest opinion, we have seen the last coal plant built here in the US. Also China is no seeking alternatives to power generation away from coal, mainly do to the fact their population is more away of environmental impacts and polution than ever before.

    The global demand for thermic coal has not only peaked, but is in a one way downtrend in my opinion. In the short and medium terms ANR, ACI, BTU, and the whole bunch can see push rallies and short market plunges that will headline based in nature only. But the overall direction of supply/demand is in downward spiral and nothing I would advise anyone to buy into for anything more than a short term headline rally trade. I.E. SOLAR. Only difference is, this is an industry that doesn't admit that they are dead and/or dying, but the facts are the facts. There is no such thing as clean coal, natural gas prices even doubled, (US prices specifically), from here will not change the course of the what will be the ultimate end of the industry.

    In closing be wary of individual stocks in this space, the index etf carries a significantly less amount of risk while providing essentially an equal, over time not immediately as an individual stock, reward.

    Happy trading everyone.

    Disclosure: Short ANR, no position in KOL, ACI, or BTU and no intentions to do so in the next 3 trading days.
    Nov 2, 2012. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin: Do Not Let The Dividend Yield Blind You [View article]
    Another reason for the "heightened" valuation is anticipation of future sales. You forget Lockheed does business with 75 different governments, sells to all of Nato, which aside from us here the U.S. and maybe a few countries in Europe, has aging fleets in need of electronics upgrades and may increase F-35 orders. Another spot of potential future sales is possible iminant wars, Turkey/Syria & Iran/Israel. Both allied airforces main fighter jets are made by LMT. Just something to consider when trying to pin a price point on a company that brokeout to a 4yr high before the overall indices did. Btw the technicals on LMT are solid as well, all that said I doubt the dividend is what is pushing it up.
    Oct 19, 2012. 01:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Lawsuit Could Send Document Security Systems' Share Price Soaring [View article]
    LOL, Facebook 400% increase in bottom line earnings in the next 5yrs... Maybe you should write an article on reasons to buy FB!

    On DSS, you may want to do some deeper looking into the company, there is a reason why the firms took the case on a contingency, and looking at the financials I highly doubt it's because of the "merits" of their pattent suit.
    Oct 9, 2012. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin: Profitability Analysis [View article]
    To add to your comment. 2007 was the height or near the height of the Iraq war, during times of war seeing how that is the business they are in, it's not uncommon to see defense companies have out of norm high ratios. Basically during times of war there is less R&D of new products(unless a specific combat related event takes place (I.E. humvee armor & V-shape hulls of the MRAP)), with the labor focus shifting more to the production side of IADPs (In action defense products).

    A comment to the author, a 5yr comparitive analysis is almost always appropriate for most companies, but not with defense companies and especially not starting with a year of heightened defense spending and then leading into years where 2 wars were/are winding down. While your article placed no real specific recommendation, ask yourself, do you think global defense spending will increase or decrease over the next 10yrs? Lockheed servicing defense needs of 74 governments (source, I would say its safe to say you can buy this stock and sleep well at night. If Washington does something stupid and it drops, it would be temporary I think, and I would buy more. Defense companies are more for investing than trading.

    Disclaimer: I own LMT through client accounts.
    Sep 7, 2012. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment