bigbaboon57

BLS Employment Numbers Don't Add Up

Yes, very convenient how these "improved" numbers come just in time to help out Bernanke. If 1you think this is amazing, just wait until we approach the 2010 mideterm elections. Obama will be pulling out all the stops to fudge the data to show how the economy is suddenly zooming.

Job Creation: There's a Solution at Hand

These benefits were paid for over their working life by the recipients. They were supposed to be held in trust by the government. Your suggestion is just more socialism. Take from those who already pay or have paid taxes, but continue to give to those who pay little or no taxes.

I have a better solution no one talks about: cut federal government spending across the board (especially entitlements to those who pay or have never paid income and payroll taxes), freeing up money for the private sector to create real, productive jobs. I'd start by eliminating the Federal Education dept altogether which the federal gov has no business being in. I'd cut the military by eliminating most of the bases we maintain around the world (those countries should pay for and provide their own defense).

We’ve Survived Worse Markets (and Economies) Before – the 1970s

Things are much worse now than in the '70s. The problem than was all monetary and tax policy, once these were fixed (under Reagan), the economy quickly improved. Today, debt is much worse and the the productive portion of the economy (private sector manufacturing) is much smaller on a percentage basis. And, of course, the government is in the hands of Socialists now, versus when we had a free enterprise Reagan then to help us, so we are still moving in the wrong direction now. There will be no quick recovery this time, even once or if we start moving in the right direction.

Hyperinflationary Depression Must Be Avoided

Obama is not a "good guy with good intentions". His entire focus has been just one thing .. growing the size of the federal government. He has a profound dislike for the private sector, and like all left wing politicians, wants more people dependent on the federal government, for such people will never vote to cut the size of the government they are reliant upon. That is, they will always be safe Democratic votes.

More Weakness, More Volatility

Just to make it clear, I did not vote Republican last election. McCain was Obama-lite, not enough difference to matter. I only would have voted Republican in the last election if Ron Paul had actually been the nominee (no chance with the mainstream media in charge). I voted for the Constitution party ... look into it.

More Weakness, More Volatility

Yes, I was saying the same about Bush. Bush was a horrible spender, didn't veto a single spending bill, and larded it on with a prescription drug benefit we couldn't (and can't) afford. He entered us into foreign wars and borrowed money from China to pay for it ... I don't mind the wars, but we should have TAKEN Iraqi oil to pay for liberating THEIR country. Having said that about Bush, he was an amateur spender next to Obama and the Democratic congress ... they have literally quadrupled the deficit from Bush's worst level.

More Weakness, More Volatility

Thed Fed doesn't control long rates, and they will go up. But the Fed does control short term rates and can print an infinite amount of money, which they will do to finance the out of control federal spending. The Democrats love more federal spending and more people dependent on the federal government ... those are all locked in
Democratic voters who will never vote against yet more federal spending. None of this is constitutional (see the 10th amendment) but then the constitution has bee ignored for decades.

More Weakness, More Volatility

The can't increase rates and the socialists in power are still increasing debt which would explode further with any increase in rates. All roads lead to money printing and hyperinflation. The stock market will "go up", but not in real terms. We are in the early stages of an inflationary depression, entirely engineered by socialist and anti-manufacturing forces within the US government over decades.

More Weakness, More Volatility

The Fed can

After 2008, Are We Due for an Up Year?

We ALREADY have a hugely up year.

We aren't going back to the highs of 2008, the fundamentals are much worse now. Yet we aren't that far from those highs ALREADY.

The risk now is to the downside. My guess is that a crash will happen very suddenly, blamed on some black swan event (maybe bomb Iran, maybe dollar crash, ...)

Markets: Reversion to the Mean or a Really Mean Reversion?

I agree with the article EXCEPT for the comment regarding the weak dollar. The weakening dollar is the ONLY reason that stocks are going up (and can continue going up so long as the dollar continues to be debased). Of course, stocks are only going up in current dollar terms, not in real terms.

Momentum Investing: Do So at Your Own Peril

IBD100 performance is actually even worse than you suggest. Remember, if a stock falls off a cliff, IBD simply removes it from their index list, and the hit is not counted against their index. Too bad an individual investor can't simply remove a big loss from his results so simply. So IBD has it's place, but one needs to be careful using it and wary of the claims.

Why Obama's Economic Policies Are Failing

Bush was no conservative, but Obama is literally many times worse (as measured by the deficit he is running up). The root of the problem is excessive government spending and the hollowing out of our manufacturing sector. No other country is as open to being merely the consumer of other's manufactured goods, no other country would allow their good jobs to be shifted as we have. The tax system in this country (with the horrible cap and trade just an extension of already bad policies) vs. other countries explains the hanicap manufacturer's suffer under. It also doesn't help that we've been effectively paying the defense budget of the entire Western World for the last 60 years, keeping sea lanes protected for free and spending trillions supporting the defense of other countries, again for free to them.

True Unemployment Numbers

Of course, government intentionally under-reports unemployment, both for political reasons and to keep their payouts down. Same reason they under-report inflation. Look for the under-reporting to continue and become even more extreme and the true numbers become worse.

Creating Debt to Reduce Debt Doesn't Work

Why are you "disappointed" in Obama? Don't you get it? His goal was never to stimulate the economy, it was and is to create more dependence upon the federal government. The more people that either directly work for the government, receive government transfer payments, or have jobs in the "private sector" that are tied to the federal government (e.g. education, healthcare), the larger is the Democratic voting base. Those that depend upon the federal government for sustenance are never going to vote for smaller government.