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Ghutchin

Ghutchin
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  • Petrobank - A Value Unlocking Spin-Off I'm Eagerly Anticipating [View article]
    Devon Shire, Can you comment on Bruce Lingle's question about Petrobakken dividend continuing at a similar rate? Currently, Petrobakken has a dividend that equates to $0.24 per quarter but only pays out $0.09 per quarter in cash.
    What will the Petrobank share distribution do to Petrobakken's cash flow, as I will assume that all or most of the new Petrobakken shareholders will want the dividend. It could me less capex, lower dividend or more debt, or has their production gotten to the point where they can afford the cash dividend? Their FFO was about $0.62 per quarter so their is lots of money there but they turn around and invest many times their FFO into (growth) capex. Will they choose to slow their growth or borrow more or monetize some assets?
    Nov 13 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's CEO Once Again Shows Poor Judgment [View article]
    If that's the case, give us back our $75M. If his loans are personal, than why are board members using shareholders money to bail him out? if his loans are personal, why is he using CHK bankers for his personal loans? If the bankers said, 'No' to Aubrey's personal loans, how long do you think they would be CHK bankers? The board should have policies in place to prevent this potential conflict of interest. We are not talking about a $500,000 mortgage here. Your shareholdings in CHK are clouding your judgements. The board and A.M. think about themselves first, then shareholders.
    May 8 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's CEO Once Again Shows Poor Judgment [View article]
    Here is the last paragraph from todays Reuters article on CHK.
    "Months later, McClendon became one of the highest paid CEOs in America for the year, receiving a total compensation package worth $112 million. The payout included a one-time cash bonus of $75 million to help him meet requirements for paying the costs of his personal stakes in Chesapeake-owned wells."

    Question:
    How is that $112M or at least the $75M portion of his compensation not shareholders money? Where did it come from ? Explain to us how, that when Aubrey screws up personally and when CHK is 'not on the line for his personal debts', how did shareholders end up forking over $75-112M? You are fooling yourself thinking that CHK isn't Aubrey's personal piggy bank with a bunch of 'yes man' board members.
    May 2 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's CEO Once Again Shows Poor Judgment [View article]
    If CHK has no responsibility on the loans (directly) and this deal can in no way harm CHK shareholders, than in the past when Aubrey had huge margin calls, he personally collapsed the share price of CHK and shareholders lost billions, than why did the Board turn around and give him more than $100M in compensation and also buy his $12M maps off of him? Shareholders paid him the $100M in comp. Shareholders paid him the $12M for his maps. Who do you think made all those decisions? Shareholders? No. Board members with Chairman Aubrey. You have your head in the sand if you think CHK shareholders won't be left holding the bag, again, if Aubrey loses money on the FWPP. Maybe no direct exposure but the same went for using his shares as collateral to buy CHK stock. Shareholders paid the price, financially in cash and in a lower share price. Your share ownership is clouding your judgement. It happens to all of us.
    May 2 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's CEO Once Again Shows Poor Judgment [View article]
    If Aubrey is right, he makes $1B. If he is wrong, shareholders will eventually be left holding the bag? I wonder how much Aubrey's maps will be worth at that time? $1B?
    Apr 18 06:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast's Revenue Projections: Doubtful the Sell-Side Is Right [View article]
    I do not believe you are accurately analyzing Medifast. I am on the other side of your short and wanted to refute your arguments.

    1/ Medifast is not a Fad diet. You compare Medifast to Nutrisystem and Atkin's and say that Medifast's Retail operations are similar to Nutrisystems. With all due respect, no they are not. Medifast has a Direct Sales division that markets and sells their products Online and over the Telephone called Medifast Direct (MD). MD represents 25% of sales in 2010. Medifast's primary distribution method is multi level marketing program called Take Shape For Life (TSFL). That segment represents 65% of sales. Comparing sales at Nutrisystem who exclusively uses direct marketing and direct sales (Online and Telephone) to Medifast Direct AND Medifast's Multi Level Marketing (TSFL) isn't comparable, IMO. You could have a $500M MLM business that most of the population has never, ever heard of, such as Pre-Paid Legal. Profitable, dividends, takeover target, etc. Two completely different consumer response and growth profiles and factors that affect sales. Fad's are very relevant for Direct sales companies but only 25% of Medifast's sales are of a Direct response while almost 100% of Nutrisystem's are. Medifast's Direct marketing efforts seem to be working. In 2009 they only grew 3% and then in 2010 they grew by 35%, so the momentum doesn't seem to be decelerating there. That is 25% of their business and growing fast but so are all parts of MED's business.

    2/ 2008 and early 2009 was a terrible time in the economy and therefore YOY growth coming out of those periods can look stunning if you take them out of context. Medifast's rebound out of 2008 and early 2009 was ...stunning and your chart shows that well. I think we can all remember that after we got through the summer of 2009, things were starting to 'unthaw' and people we opening their wallets again. By the end of 2010 and early 2011 the economy was normalizing and the comparables from 12 months earlier were not nearly as easy to 'hit the cover off the ball'. Therefore, what you are showing is expected and happened at nearly every good company. Your fundamental analysis flaw. In your chart, did you really not align NTRI growth pattern using the exact same time line as MED's? Did you really arbitrarily use one period in time for NTRI and a completely different period in time for MED and then plotted your data on the same chart to support your thesis? (at least you disclosed that fact, so thank you for being honest). Did you refer to the purpose of what you did was for 'clarity'? At the same time, did you tell the reader that 90% of MED's business 'most closely resembles' NTRI's business and is therefore comparable, which is NOT true (only 25% of MED's business is sold similarly to NTRI's business)? Summary : If you adjust the numbers enough, you can get them to say anything you want too, which is exactly what you did, IMO.

    3/ Lastly, I wanted to share with the readers the following numbers and let them decide for themselves if your method holds water. Here are the quarterly sales showing YOY growth for another company which saw their sales decelerate. Q1 +35.21%, Q2 +44.23%, Q3 +38.9%, Q4 +27.4%, Q1 +23.96%, and Q2 +20%. The early quarters numbers were not as impressive as MED's but they were impressive by most measures yet they are certainly starting to see their growth decelerate, going all the way from 44% growth to just 20%. Based on your argument for MED, the shareholders of the above company will eventually be disappointed and sell their shares (causing the share price to decline) when growth continues to decelerate as is shown by the recent data and a reasonable investor should consider shorting the stock. Of course, that person would have shorted AAPL in early 2010 and that didn't turn out too well either.

    Difference of opinions makes a market.
    Jun 10 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast's Revenue Projections: Doubtful the Sell-Side Is Right [View article]
    Dear mr. Wolf, is the above article representative of your main thesis of your short position?
    Jun 8 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast's Revenue Projections: Doubtful the Sell-Side Is Right [View article]
    To comment only about the fad diets that you compare Medifast too, I would suggest that Medifast is not defined as a fad diet. I doubt that if you asked 10 friends what Medifast was, few if any would tell you they sold low calorie meal replacement products. They also don't make unrealistic claims, or have some extremely unusual gimmicks (grapefruit diet, low carbs, etc). Just low calorie food. If your numbers show slowing growth, I would not be inclined to conclude the cause to be the public getting tired of the products or public perception falling due to negative media reports.
    Jun 7 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Open Memo to Medifast Chief Executive and CFO Michael S. McDevitt [View instapost]
    Any new comments on Medifast given the recent accounting restatements which seemed to be reasonable (but still an error) and their very earnings release from yesterday (May 9, 2011) that the market seemed to approve of.

    Are you still supporting Minkow even after being convicted AGAIN? Why would a company's CEO openly debate a multiple convicted felon and fraudster?

    It looks like Medifast has done and is doing the right thing, just as Fairfax Financial has done, which is let the numbers speak for themselves.
    May 10 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puda Coal Chairman's $12 Buyout Offer: The Most Doubtful LBO of All Time [View article]
    Obviously no shareholders wanted or expected the chairman and founder of the company to do something that initially seems to at least lack disclosure, and at the most commit fraud. You have to admit, many things just don't add up, especially that Ming would destroy his value in Puda holdings of $100m or so for a $37m cheque. Even a fraudster isn't that stupid. I think it is possible that we are all, including you and GEO are missing several pieces to this puzzle. It is simply too premature to draw definitive conclusions. We are just guessing.

    If you are very confident in GEO's analysis, than you should all just let your short ride out the storm and cover at $0. Let's all just wait for the facts and stop making crap up.
    May 5 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puda Coal Chairman's $12 Buyout Offer: The Most Doubtful LBO of All Time [View article]
    Where are the assets that were acquired with the $530m? Won't those assets generate considerable earnings? Isn't it hard to speculate on their 2012 earnings without knowing where the $530m went?
    May 3 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ark Restaurants Corp: An Enviable Economic Moat [View article]
    How do you feel about the new SEC filing regarding his salary advance and loan to his former spouse?
    Dec 13 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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