Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bakermre's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Deflation And Recession: Yes Or No? [View article]
    I am a Canadian, agree to similar signs here. We must remember that Brad is writing from a USA perspective. Most markets are grossly, secretly, manipulated. Flight capital continues to flood into the US markets as anxiety over Europe, Japan and China rapidly mounts. There are gluts in several commodities as demand declines and increasing production, particularly in oil, & gas, depresses energy markets and services. For USA based markets these dynamics have depressed interest rates and raised the world value of the US $ against all other currencies. Cheap energy always works its way through the greater economy, depressing prices if currencies like the US $ go up. The question is for how long? The recent early morning raid on gold prices, dumping a huge number of contracts when all of the world's markets, like COMEX, were asleep can mean only one thing: price manipulation to force down precious metal prices. Who benefits short term? US banks seeking to cover their short positions and the Chinese who never export any gold produced at home and surreptitiously import large quantities. These manipulators act in secret, deny all allegations and cover up their actions. When recessions in Canada, China, Europe and Japan reach fever pitch later in 2015, their effects will hit USA exports hard, raising import prices at the same time, eventually dragging America into recession in late 2015, or early 2016. Watch Brad's ratios and government bond interest rates, the keys to these trends.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold renews slide, hits lowest price since 2010 [View news story]
    America is a land of impatience: 30 second sound bites, 12 hour twitter cycles, 15 minutes of fame then oblivion, like the mists of morning before sunrise. China knows how to plan, organize, activate and wait; like the long march to victory, 1920's until 1949. By contrast, Yankee quick-fixes will sink us all! The gold, silver, platinum and palladium sell off to capitulation must first occur, before the recovery. Nobody has the patience to prepare for this eventuality. Come it shall, probably in the 4th Quarter or early in 2016. Wait and watch; watch and pray: Be Patient!
    Jul 26, 2015. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cameco: Down But Not Out [View article]
    The short term alternative to coal is natural gas. Uranium is the long term, high capital cost final solution to pollution of all kinds. It will take decades, but it will grow. Timing is everything in Uranium. Watch the spot price trends for clues on where the demand curve is heading. Until that turns firmly up, Cameco and all the miners will languish. Time is the whole story; and few have any patience to wait.
    Jul 26, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp Inc. Is Not A Buy According To Our 2-Factor Model [View article]
    Some people speculate on Gold, some hold it as insurance. Gold is like an old masters painting; you should hold it for a lifetime and hand it down to your heirs.
    Goldcorp is more convenient to hold than either coin or art, with less risk of theft or fire. Unlike bullion, coins or paintings, Goldcorp pays a dividend and is well managed. It has a long life, with excellent properties and growing reserves of low cost ore to mine. Like life insurance, it is unwise to buy and sell these assets as the market values wax and wane. Greedy, fearful speculators usually get burned or stung in the process, howling bitterly like a barefoot cowboy stepping on a rattle snake in his boot. Beware stomping on snakes without adequate cover! They can bounce back up to bite you in your unprotected derri'ere !
    Jul 26, 2015. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: Where Is The Silver Lining? [View article]
    Michael_Michael: If you believe this, all you need to do is buy December 2015 SLW Puts at the current market price (CAD $17) as your strike. Should SLW continue to fall in price, as does silver bullion, you'll do quite well. If you own 100 or more SLW shares, to finance your trade,sell covered call options for December 2015. As an example, assuming you own 1000 shares of SLW on the TSX, the income from 10 covered call contracts more or less will equal the purchase price cost of your 10 Put option contracts. Watch your 3 positions very carefully each day. Set limits. When/if SLW reaches $19 it is probably a good idea to close out these contracts, and keep your more valuable SLW shares to compensate the option losses. Otherwise, sit tight and watch your overall gains grow, offsetting the loss in SLW share price you forecast. Meanwhile, collect the dividends on the 1000 shares of SLW you own to partially cover your costs of these trades. Low risk for good profit possibilities, assuming you really believe what you are saying today. I don't believe SLW will drop much more now. I'd prefer to buy December or March $17 call contracts and enjoy a 10% to 20% gain if SLW returns to $19 by expiration dates.
    Jul 26, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Capitulation Time? [View article]
    Keep your eye on Palladium. It is an industrial metal, produced in Russia and evidently they are in deficit with falling production. Nobody wants to do business with Russia anyway, so the thesis that Russia will flood markets with Palladium is a non-starter. Palladium can be substituted for Platinum in auto catalysts at half the cost; so as car production goes up, down or side-wise so goes Palladium. The current swoon in Pd prices is insane in these circumstances. That must be the canary in the coal mine; when Palladium swings up, sharply, gold and platinum must follow. Same for silver. When is the only remaining question. The entire precious metals market is out of whack, big time! A blow-up in Sept.-Nov. most likely.
    Jul 18, 2015. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold renews slide, hits lowest price since 2010 [View news story]
    In a world of rigged markets and political posturing in the oil patch, how can any thoughtful investor claim that natural market forces of supply and demand for gold and silver are somehow immune to these cross winds? There is plenty of evidence of huge short positions in gold and silver bullion held by 4 major banks. The whole structure is meta stable, like the Greek foreign debt, it is sustainable until it isn't. This whole structure is due to blow up, along with $900 Trillion in Credit default swaps and similar derivatives. The truth is we are playing a 21st century game of tulip mania and it will go on until we all awaken to the reality of universal insolvency. China is now holding huge resources of gold, probably 30,000 tonnes and quietly waiting until that day. Not an ounce of Gold has left China for many years, despite their annual production of about 1,000 tonnes! Why do you suppose that is going on? When they start to sell gold, at whatever price, you will know the game is truly up! The Chinese are very patient, never foolish.
    Jul 17, 2015. 11:43 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: Where Is The Silver Lining? [View article]
    I bought SLW from the beginning and have added to it since, with my considerable position, my average cost is now CAD 4.3635. Were I foolish enough to panic and sell, the overzealous, greedy Canadian Tax man would hit me with a fat capital gains tax. (I am Canadian). No thanks! I know Randy Smallwood and Ian Telfer; these are decent, serious guys, who have exercised a brilliant strategy. Surely they had excellent tax accountants/lawyers as advisors doing due diligence to carefully design their company on a sound model. Same model as Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold; also well managed, serious firms. Canada is getting desperate for tax money and is going after its most successful miners, risking to drive them out of Canada on all their foreign mines and company bases; just like Apple and other big multi-nationals were forced out of the USA by stupid tax policies: short term gain, (maybe?) long term folly, after a bitter legal war, over many years. Take courage, stick with SLW and do not panic. This shall pass!
    Jul 17, 2015. 12:30 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enbridge Is The Best Pipelines Play [View article]
    I have held ENF for some time and am very satisfied. The dividend is fair and the stock price has grown quite steadily. My only concern is the recent State of Michigan restrictions on ENB/ENF oil shipments in pipelines under the Mackinac region (Lake Michigan/Huron confluence). This is difficult to figure into cost/return calculations. The past pipeline rupture along the Kalamazoo River was a serious long term issue, holding back free development of ENB and ENF projects. Thus some caution is warranted.
    Jul 14, 2015. 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will China Pull Back Up SLV? [View article]
    J P Morgan and 3 other bullion banks have sold hundreds of thousands of silver purchase contracts short over recent years. Their short positions, collectively, represent potential purchases of silver bullion, estimated to equal or exceed about 3 years of annual mine supply. Where will the silver come from when/if these contracts are "called-in" to be settled with physical silver? We must recognize that the silver market, like so many other commodity and financial (derivatives and credit default swaps) instrument markets, have been grotesquely manipulated and distorted. In a rigged world of rigged markets nobody can get a true sense of the valid price of such metals. Depressed prices for precious metals, like silver, have tended to drive demand for the metal higher, while frustrating and impoverishing miners, reducing supply far below apparent total demand. When this situation blows up, prices will go haywire. Beware!
    Jul 13, 2015. 09:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp Is Serious About Deleveraging [View article]
    The (ever rigged) price of gold is the whole story here. Until this fraud ends, GG is still the best long term buy or hold in this miners' slow-death camp. Suffer for another 2 years and collect 3.6% reasonably secure dividends; then comes the moment of truth. By then most competitors will be dead, World gold production down 10 to 20% and demand still the same as today. This cannot go on for ever!
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stansberry's Matt Badiali Shares His Guide To Avoiding Pitfalls In The Climb To Resource Investing Heights [View article]
    I have (tried to) follow Matt Badialli and his boss, Porter Stansberry for many years. Matt is my idea of the perfect investment letter adviser running on fumes, hype, double-talk and a tremendous outbursts of super-nova level B.S. promotions. Typical was Interoil (IOC). Even Dr. Kent Moors couldn't out B. S. Matt on this story. From $65 to $88 then $37 we followed the hype. After it died down; Moors said (August 1, 2014) to sell at $65 and then on 12/1/14 buy back in at $59.26. As of today it is about $50.50. Badialli seems to leap from one promotion to another, with only one constant: "I am amazing; just watch me!" Run for the exits, say I.
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp Inc.: What If We Have Not Reached The Bottom Yet? [View article]
    Holding Goldcorp shares is like a full-life insurance policy that pays regular dividends. Only a fool buys and sells his/her life insurance policy whimsically every other day or month. Until the criminal manipulation (i.e. "financial engineering") of all things money: [interest rates, LIBOR, Derivatives, QE, Greek Bail-outs; Japanese Yen printing; Chinese Gold Bullion hoarding; huge paper gold contract shorts by bullion banks, (like JPM); massive bank fines without indictments of CEO's and officers/directors responsible; the "suicide epidemic" of many bank officers], gets thoroughly exposed and adjudicated this "crap-shoot" of an industry will send us all false gold price signals. There is little, if any, transparency in current financial markets, only the footprints in the shifting snow of cover-ups and quasi-fraud, slight of hand, style management, which is the financial engineering world Goldcorp must negotiate. Underneath it all is this conundrum: is Goldcorp, given a true price discovery and real value scenario, a solid business? My answer is yes; it is among the very best in a tormented Gold mining industry. So my conclusion is: hold for better times/days, they shall surely come if we are willing to be patient. Just like life insurance it shall eventually pay off handsomely. Until then watch the cash-flow and collect decent dividends.
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cameco: Down But Not Out [View article]
    When considering Cameco and Uranium, we MUST look long, long term. This market is like a huge tortoise, ready to move massively, yet slowly, over the next 5 to 7 years. Cigar Lake has flooded twice and is in a geologically vulnerable region; so getting it into stable, long term production has to be a risky speculation. I prefer alternatives, as for example Fission Uranium Company $1.02 (FCU-TSX), as a more likely, and certainly less risky, short term speculation. 12 mo. target is $1.30 (Raymond James). I rode the Cameco boom from 2002 upward into 2007, very successfully, gaining over 700%. Later Cigar Lake flooded, before Japan's 2011 tsunami. I got out in early 2007 at about $44 and am I glad I did! Buyer beware, this opportunity could erupt again, but for now it has gone quiet until, most likely, sometime after 2020. Watch the spot market price of Uranium, if that starts to bubble, over $50, then it will be time to buy in; but not before, is my advice. That is exactly how I played it last time and that was key to my success.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The Chinese Stock Market Crash Affect Apple? [View article]
    The Chinese stock market debacle is symptomatic of over-inflated expectations fostered by years of 7 to 10% annual GDP growth. It is time to take a breather, even suffer a broad 35 to 50% correction in market growth in China. First to decline in China will be excess goods luxury demand, fueled by easy money made during the bubble growth phase, now largely over. Gold plated Apple watch demand should cool considerably as a first step. Apple overall should see a slow down in their Chinese growth curve; 70+%/year is unsustainable; 20% more likely over the next 12 to 18 months; so factor these in. No catastrophe; yet slower/lower expectations. A price correction over the next 90 days to the $110 to $100 range for APPL shares would be an excellent buying opportunity worth watch-listing until 4th quarter 2015. World markets are very unstable, unpredictable with down side market risk increasing in the 3rd quarter. Caution; caution is in order!
    Jul 8, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment