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  • Exiting A Short VIX Trade [View article]
    This is a useful and thoughtful article. For me the key is to have a clear plan before entering any trade with signals when to get out clearly in mind. You'll never get in at the top and out at the very bottom. I try to plan for a two stage approach; for example buy 2 PUT contracts with 30 to 60 day expiration periods and aim to sell at least one when a profit target, say 10% to 20% is reached; holding the balance for the next step down. If you can realize a move like from $2 to $1 on half your units, you have already broken even for sure, protecting your capital. If the trade goes against you, don't hang on too long; bite the bullet and exit promptly, accept the fact that in only 7 or 8 trades out of 10 you will gain; so keep losses small.
    Oct 13, 2015. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Sends Warning To Stock Bears [View article]
    This is a valuable and very interesting insight; unique to me! In actual practice, for me, it has worked! Back in the 2008 - 2009 recession panic period, which covered the fourth quarter of 2008 and first 10 weeks of 2009, the market volatility indices hit extreme highs. Gold and silver bullion prices fell sharply, but not as fast or as far as lumber! By early January 2009, it seems a bottom was evident. I bought the most representative Gold and Silver shares: GoldCorp (G.TSX) and Silver Wheaton (SLW.TSX) then, at respectively CAD16.78 and CAD 4.11. In the 3rd Quarter of 2011, when high volatility had begun to decline and the lumber/gold ratio was at its highest; that was the time to sell some (or most) of the G and SLW positions. G hit $55.30 on Sept. 8, 2011 and SLW at $40.83 on 9/21/2011 (US$ and CAD were approx. $1.01 = CAD 1.00). The problem seems to be a lag of about a quarter in this analysis; so it is a blunt forecasting instrument, but it helps reveal trends. It needs more study!
    Oct 12, 2015. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Am Managing My AT&T Holding [View article]
    I see the best strategy is to hold onto shares as they trade in the $31 to $36 range, sell covered calls on a quarterly basis and roll them over. If you fear the shares might be called away, close the position and move another 90 days out with a new covered call at a higher strike, keeping your net money invested in calls at a modest level. In most cases yield is more than the cost to repurchase them before expiration dates. Assign dividends to a DRIP and watch your overall wealth grow. If you sell covered calls at modest premiums (avoid being too greedy!) most of the time you'll get to keep the premium at expiration. Take these proceeds, as they mount up, to buy more shares and/or buy PUTS if you expect market price declines. Be a good shepherd, watch over your T flock.
    Oct 6, 2015. 09:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corporation Forced To Grow Inorganically [View article]
    I sold POT short on the TSX on Sept. 22 for just under $30 and closed out the trade on September 29 for around $27 CAD, or about $22.62 short and $20.11 cover in US funds, for a net gain in one week of US $2.50 per share. Today, Friday, Oct. 2, POT closed at $26.97 on the TSX or little changed at US $ 20.45 equivalent, the difference being mostly due to a CAD/US$ appreciation of 1.9%. I say this, not to gloat, but only to observe that the volatility of these shares, right now, seems to offer more rewards to an attentive trader than the longer term buyer/investor, seeking dividend income. Since early March these shares very steadily declined 38.6%, from CAD $44 to about $27 close today on the TSX, with few up-ticks. While there is some support at $26, I'd hold off until they get closer to $24 on the TSX = U.S. $18 and the K+S situation clarifies as well. Mosaic is in a similar steep decline as has FMC; this market is not very bullish.
    Only a brave contrarian would dare plunge into these issues right now!
    Oct 2, 2015. 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ten-year Treasury yield threatens 2% after latest weak data [View news story]
    Looks like Harry Dent and Larry Edelson are on to something. Here comes 2008 deja vu all over again!
    Oct 1, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Sold 13 Million iPhones On Launch Weekend - That Should Frighten Investors [View article]
    MB seems stuck on pro-Android arguments in this vein: (Compare Android to VW in the auto market; VW is the #1 leader, so it is storming ahead in 2016). What all the MB analyses lack is a grasp of the fundamentals: Apple is a fashion statement that NEEDS an annual update! It is a superb consumer-focused product that is integrated with the entire back-up line of Apple products, MAC's, etc. Apple is like Mercedes, Porsche or BMW; it simply competes at a different level, on another plane, untouched by 90% of Android buyers. Apple always appeals to those in the know; the 10% ahead of the pack, with products a year ahead of the others, most of the time. Now-a-days I'm short VW and long Porsche. How about you, MB?
    Oct 1, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now That's My Cup Of 'T' [View article]
    Our family has held these shares for decades, although the 1983 break-up of the old AT&T certainly slowed down T growth. Despite that, today the company is stronger and more progressive than ever. Keep on buying it and compounding its dividends into more shares = a lifetime of growing wealth!
    Sep 29, 2015. 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T declares $0.47 dividend [View news story]
    Nothing but happy smiles in an otherwise sour market!
    Sep 25, 2015. 03:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cameco Is An Opportunity At Its 52-Week Low [View article]
    Timing is everything in this market! We just do not know how long it will take before all the new demands start to accumulate and push volumes up. Most probably there will not be any significant change before late 2016 or early 2017.
    Most prices/volumes have already been fixed by contracts, so that changes in spot price will have only limited short term effect. I do not expect much of a "boom" could materialize before 2017 and shall invest cautiously over the next 18 months.
    Sep 25, 2015. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: That Was Fast [View article]
    Well written Mr. Davis. I have held SLW since it was founded, know Randy Smallwood and trust his management. The Government of Canada is playing with dynamite here. If they persist, just like Apple, SLW will move their H.Q. abroad and Canada will get very little more; lose much over time. After the October 19, 2015 election, we may get more clarity. If the present Conservative Government is returned they may soften their stand. If the opposition wins, nobody knows. Both opposition parties are tax and spend Liberal or Socialist minded, so not so favourable to SLW. This back-tax lien was and is a big stupid, bureaucratic mistake. I hope SLW can win this fight in court, but it will cost something extra for sure.
    Sep 25, 2015. 11:50 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell, BHP, GE to advise governments on climate change [View news story]
    I applaud the entry of everyone who wants to transparently debate this issue. Let all sides contribute; perhaps we shall all learn something new. Too many proponents of "Climate Change sole cause is human activity" hate any such idea. The dogma of that synthesis is now a secular religion, never to be debated.
    One should examine much more carefully who is financing the Climate Change and Global Warming hysteria industry. Some, like David Suzuki, have admitted they receive funding from sources in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, both OPEC members. Seems strange, until you discover that Suzuki is leading a howling pack of activists to shut down the Canadian Oil Sands, Keystone XL pipeline and similar Canadian gas and oil export projects. Canadian gas and oil are not welcome in Canada nor its intended customers in the USA, Asia and Europe. Yet I rarely hear one tiny peep of protest when it comes to the alternative suppliers, like those OPEC bastions of liberty and democracy, Saudi Arabia, The Gulf States, and Venezuela. Hmmmm!!?? Let the games begin, like the US Open, for all!
    Sep 24, 2015. 01:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.24 dividend [View news story]
    The drift to an economy led by fundamentally flawed, disingenuous people, at every level, is the greatest threat in our generation. The antidote is complete public exposure of their ruinous behavior. CEO's, sick with diseased egos, must be “outed” and removed when their broken trust is exposed as a deliberate management strategy. Such an enterprise is in peril of disintegration and ultimate failure. Whether a cop on the beat or a CEO ensconced in a suite atop a 60 story tower; today all are on live candid camera 24/7! Volkswagen’s CEO is a perfect example. VW collapse or bankruptcy is now possible. NYMT is headed in the same basic direction. CEO Steve Mumma deserves no mercy. Get off his ship of fools before it goes down with you and Captain Mumma aboard!
    Sep 23, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Pacific Came To Montreal: Here's What They Said [View article]
    Where is Hunter Harrison in all of this? Is he still ailing?
    Sep 18, 2015. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper prices on watch after Chile quake [View news story]
    Better to watch the copper producers stock price, for now. Watch Southern Copper (SCCO) as a bell-weather.
    Sep 17, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Game Over? [View article]
    The best crooks are brazen, up front and never wrong! Their idea of fiduciary responsibility is entirely to themselves. Sociopaths with a narcissistic heart. When I hear a self-proclaimed "Business Leader" declare some company they own can be taken into bankruptcy, as it is legally part of the capitalist system and "I did nothing illegal"; I must agree. Legal, yes; immoral yes as well. (True leaders fight to make whole everyone damaged by a bankruptcy or corporate bust and never rest until the settlement compensates, fairly, ALL parties who are damaged). So, I NEVER put a dime into any enterprise led by such a person as GE. You just don't book into a hotel run by a self-confirmed arsonist! Not even a 5 star, world famous hotel. NEVER take a cruise on a ship where the captain gloats that he likes to see how close to the reefs and rocks he can steer the ship and yet miss.
    Sep 17, 2015. 11:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment