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bakermre

bakermre
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  • China: The Elephant Sitting On Apple's Pie [View article]
    Wow! This sounds like running in place, share-price wise, to me. Question is for how long? I suspect until well into 2016, perhaps for a whole year or more.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Egypt Field Is Real, Cheniere Is Toast [View article]
    Russia is the hidden tiger to watch! It seems to be in their interests to keep the middle-east pot of turmoil boiling. Iran for openers, who support ISIS style elements, are at war with the Kurds, give Hezbollah as much support as they can, etc. Now we are seeing USA, thanks to Senator Barbara Mikulski, approving the Iran nuclear settlement and a huge flood of more wealth pouring back into Iran, soon. What could be more destabilizing for Egypt and Europe, let alone Israel? That, dear Dana, is what I don't get. Lately Obama and the Russians seem poised to plant their flags on arctic sea-beds, harming Canadian hegemony. Why do Americans and Russians collaborate in so many ways? As a Canadian, I see our "best of friends" in Washington stab us in the back, time after time! They blame us for "poor relations" with the Obama administration, while Democratic strategists interfere in our domestic politics. They openly support Canadian opposition parties in their drive to defeat our present government's re-election. We are the true north, strong, democratic and free, who are being damaged more than any other ally of the USA. They oppose our friendship with Israel, our help to defend Ukraine and our strong stance against Russian and Iranian tyranny. Why?
    Sep 3, 2015. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On IBM's Pension Liabilities [View article]
    Debt, pension liabilities and derivatives for financial engineering. Stock buybacks to prop-up residual stock prices for the remaining owners, largely bloating executives wealth, with their big option opportunities or holdings. These are the hidden dragons and crouching tigers ready to pounce upon hapless IBM investors in the next 5 years. Is it any wonder that the IBM share price has steadily fallen and continues to decline as corporate revenues stagnate? Alas, time and the tides of rapid change are leaving this once proud big blue whale beached, with few channels of escape. Downsize, sell off aged assets and reach out to take the BlackBerry challenge, the days are numbered! Survival mode is fast arriving.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    I find both sides of this debate very helpful and instructive. For those who support the case for a further substantial market decline, (even collapse) ahead, see Larry Edelson's reports via the Weiss group website:
    http://money and markets.com

    One element that is consistently ignored, or overlooked, is the precarious state of a mountain of derivatives, which exceeds every bubble definition from former times. Claims on physical/hard assets like gold, silver and commodities or mine reserves, are astronomical, often 100:1 or more. Low interest rates, coupled with broken or repealed regulatory frameworks, since 1999, have led to a plague of financial engineering. Hundreds of $trillions in derivatives cannot be cleared from the markets in an orderly way. There has been no transparent analysis of how the process for an orderly derivative deflation can occur without devastating market valuations impact. Defaults and bankruptcies lie ahead as a result. That's the bubble nobody knows or understands and it shall surely burst. We just don't know WHEN!! Be aware and be prepared. The market canary is the VIX; when it rises above 40 and vacillates toward 60 or 80, we'll know the explosion is near.
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:12 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Has Given You A Gift: Ford [View article]
    People buy houses, cars, appliances and other capital items in cycles; even our human life runs in cycles over 7 to 40 year segments. Stock markets are quite cyclical; we are close to the average 7 year cycle of a rising market overall. Ford has been a great investment for those who recognized this investment reality and bought it in March 2009. Are you convinced it will go higher in 2015? Then buy some December calls at $13 or $14. If you hold Ford shares today, write covered calls on your position as the current cycle plays out. If you are convinced it will go lower, buy some PUTS at the low estimate, say $8 to $9 for early 2016 or later. Buy and hold in isolation on cyclical stocks just does not work; you have to watch your position every day and adapt to the changing times; eternal vigilance is the price of financial freedom!
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp Analysts' Consensus Price Target Doesn't Seduce Value Investors [View article]
    Gold is unlike any other commodity. It is really a store of value for the long term. Holdings of coin and bullion are best. Some gold is used for jewelry and/or for dental and other limited applications in commerce. The problem of fiat currencies, is that they are eventually over produced by panic ridden governments, in lieu of higher taxes on the populace. They become an easy way to raise hidden taxes by inflation and debasement of government bonded debt. The bias, over time, is always toward excess fiat money creation. What is different since 1971, especially in the past 13 years, is the emergence of a huge volume of financially engineered derivatives; unknown in prior centuries. All the calculations in this article cannot come to grips with this essential, hidden, factor; so it is ignored. Gold and other precious metals, including well established miners with adequate ore reserves, must be held as insurance against the eventual tsunami of derivative collapse and fiat currency inflation. These are uncharted waters. You buy insurance on house, cars, health and life events in hopes it will never be claimed except upon death, accidents or catastrophes. Insurance has to be an essential part of any intelligent, long term asset allocation plan. Physical Gold/precious metals, jewelry and works of art should be included, beyond mere paper-backed assets. Mining shares, directly owned, not in a brokerage account, are a "paper-asset" exception. When all else fails, 5,000 years of history shows these kinds of holdings survive.
    Aug 25, 2015. 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Invest As Fear Is Thrown Into The Market [View article]
    An excellent article. Few may read it, fewer still heed it; yet it is full of valuable insights, particularly today. I have been following this strategy as outlined here for some time; today is the day it has paid off, big time.
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation And Recession: Yes Or No? [View article]
    I am a Canadian, agree to similar signs here. We must remember that Brad is writing from a USA perspective. Most markets are grossly, secretly, manipulated. Flight capital continues to flood into the US markets as anxiety over Europe, Japan and China rapidly mounts. There are gluts in several commodities as demand declines and increasing production, particularly in oil, & gas, depresses energy markets and services. For USA based markets these dynamics have depressed interest rates and raised the world value of the US $ against all other currencies. Cheap energy always works its way through the greater economy, depressing prices if currencies like the US $ go up. The question is for how long? The recent early morning raid on gold prices, dumping a huge number of contracts when all of the world's markets, like COMEX, were asleep can mean only one thing: price manipulation to force down precious metal prices. Who benefits short term? US banks seeking to cover their short positions and the Chinese who never export any gold produced at home and surreptitiously import large quantities. These manipulators act in secret, deny all allegations and cover up their actions. When recessions in Canada, China, Europe and Japan reach fever pitch later in 2015, their effects will hit USA exports hard, raising import prices at the same time, eventually dragging America into recession in late 2015, or early 2016. Watch Brad's ratios and government bond interest rates, the keys to these trends.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold renews slide, hits lowest price since 2010 [View news story]
    America is a land of impatience: 30 second sound bites, 12 hour twitter cycles, 15 minutes of fame then oblivion, like the mists of morning before sunrise. China knows how to plan, organize, activate and wait; like the long march to victory, 1920's until 1949. By contrast, Yankee quick-fixes will sink us all! The gold, silver, platinum and palladium sell off to capitulation must first occur, before the recovery. Nobody has the patience to prepare for this eventuality. Come it shall, probably in the 4th Quarter or early in 2016. Wait and watch; watch and pray: Be Patient!
    Jul 26, 2015. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cameco: Down But Not Out [View article]
    The short term alternative to coal is natural gas. Uranium is the long term, high capital cost final solution to pollution of all kinds. It will take decades, but it will grow. Timing is everything in Uranium. Watch the spot price trends for clues on where the demand curve is heading. Until that turns firmly up, Cameco and all the miners will languish. Time is the whole story; and few have any patience to wait.
    Jul 26, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp Inc. Is Not A Buy According To Our 2-Factor Model [View article]
    Some people speculate on Gold, some hold it as insurance. Gold is like an old masters painting; you should hold it for a lifetime and hand it down to your heirs.
    Goldcorp is more convenient to hold than either coin or art, with less risk of theft or fire. Unlike bullion, coins or paintings, Goldcorp pays a dividend and is well managed. It has a long life, with excellent properties and growing reserves of low cost ore to mine. Like life insurance, it is unwise to buy and sell these assets as the market values wax and wane. Greedy, fearful speculators usually get burned or stung in the process, howling bitterly like a barefoot cowboy stepping on a rattle snake in his boot. Beware stomping on snakes without adequate cover! They can bounce back up to bite you in your unprotected derri'ere !
    Jul 26, 2015. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Capitulation Time? [View article]
    Keep your eye on Palladium. It is an industrial metal, produced in Russia and evidently they are in deficit with falling production. Nobody wants to do business with Russia anyway, so the thesis that Russia will flood markets with Palladium is a non-starter. Palladium can be substituted for Platinum in auto catalysts at half the cost; so as car production goes up, down or side-wise so goes Palladium. The current swoon in Pd prices is insane in these circumstances. That must be the canary in the coal mine; when Palladium swings up, sharply, gold and platinum must follow. Same for silver. When is the only remaining question. The entire precious metals market is out of whack, big time! A blow-up in Sept.-Nov. most likely.
    Jul 18, 2015. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold renews slide, hits lowest price since 2010 [View news story]
    In a world of rigged markets and political posturing in the oil patch, how can any thoughtful investor claim that natural market forces of supply and demand for gold and silver are somehow immune to these cross winds? There is plenty of evidence of huge short positions in gold and silver bullion held by 4 major banks. The whole structure is meta stable, like the Greek foreign debt, it is sustainable until it isn't. This whole structure is due to blow up, along with $900 Trillion in Credit default swaps and similar derivatives. The truth is we are playing a 21st century game of tulip mania and it will go on until we all awaken to the reality of universal insolvency. China is now holding huge resources of gold, probably 30,000 tonnes and quietly waiting until that day. Not an ounce of Gold has left China for many years, despite their annual production of about 1,000 tonnes! Why do you suppose that is going on? When they start to sell gold, at whatever price, you will know the game is truly up! The Chinese are very patient, never foolish.
    Jul 17, 2015. 11:43 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: Where Is The Silver Lining? [View article]
    I bought SLW from the beginning and have added to it since, with my considerable position, my average cost is now CAD 4.3635. Were I foolish enough to panic and sell, the overzealous, greedy Canadian Tax man would hit me with a fat capital gains tax. (I am Canadian). No thanks! I know Randy Smallwood and Ian Telfer; these are decent, serious guys, who have exercised a brilliant strategy. Surely they had excellent tax accountants/lawyers as advisors doing due diligence to carefully design their company on a sound model. Same model as Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold; also well managed, serious firms. Canada is getting desperate for tax money and is going after its most successful miners, risking to drive them out of Canada on all their foreign mines and company bases; just like Apple and other big multi-nationals were forced out of the USA by stupid tax policies: short term gain, (maybe?) long term folly, after a bitter legal war, over many years. Take courage, stick with SLW and do not panic. This shall pass!
    Jul 17, 2015. 12:30 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enbridge Is The Best Pipelines Play [View article]
    I have held ENF for some time and am very satisfied. The dividend is fair and the stock price has grown quite steadily. My only concern is the recent State of Michigan restrictions on ENB/ENF oil shipments in pipelines under the Mackinac region (Lake Michigan/Huron confluence). This is difficult to figure into cost/return calculations. The past pipeline rupture along the Kalamazoo River was a serious long term issue, holding back free development of ENB and ENF projects. Thus some caution is warranted.
    Jul 14, 2015. 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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