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bakermre

bakermre
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  • Kroger's COO Takes A Hike - Should You? [View article]
    Modern corporate life normally is an inhuman Hell! It drives all but the paranoid sociopaths crazy, especially when they're on call 24/7 and family is separated.
    Where oh where is that old fashioned ethical company management team that used to exist decades ago? Places like Readers Digest, where everyone from CEO down was a member of the family and people really cared for each other. There has got to be more to life than the bottom line; the Dick Fuld style CEO and Al Dunlap business planning model. The USA teeters on the edge of a Vesuvius of a derivative mountain, ready to explode, while those in control (0.01%) drive the masses ever closer to the volcano's perimeter. It shall all end badly and sooner than expected.
    Jul 1, 2015. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada's Economic Woes: The Collapse In Oil And A Looming Recession [View article]
    I am Canadian and it seems to me that all these adjustments take time. Oil is not likely to go over $60; probably fall to $50 or $55 for more than a year. It will take time to readjust to this reality. Last time we did it by allowing the Loonie to fall into the $0.62 to $0.65 range; that did wonders as we climbed out of the 2001 - 2002 recession. Our agriculture, cattle, forest products, car and parts exports held up well, even grew as the US market revived. The really painful adjustment will have to come in housing as prices are extreme. Looks like a slow recovery after a very bad 2016 2017 experience, general contraction. After the October 2015 election any new government will have to embark on public works, highway and bridge repairs, new subways in Toronto and other cities to boost our sick economy. I expect it will take until 2020 to adjust fully. More public debt, alas; even the Conservatives will have to act like Socialists, if re-elected.
    Jul 1, 2015. 06:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I See Gold Headed For $880 [View article]
    China never exports any gold despite being the world's largest producer (1,000 tonnes/year); it is reasonably certain they now hold about 30,000 tonnes. Russia does the same, with a smaller level of holdings. India generally imports, rarely exports, any gold. Other countries, (Germany) and even states, Texas, are trying (with little success) to get gold back from the USA FED/Treasury and other vaults holding it for them. It seems likely they can't because all these holdings were secretly sold or leased out years ago. As for silver, 4 world scale banks, including JP Morgan and Citi, hold 90% of the world's paper shorts on silver bullion. This amounts to over 3 years annual mine production, with no reasonable way for these short positions to be cleared by metal deliveries. It has been government policy, and I include UK and USA, to suppress gold and silver prices for decades, in order to permit unlimited fiat currency printing to fund government deficits and related quantitative easing strategies. Lawrence H. Summers, Alan Greenspan and others have published papers and discussed how this mechanism works and aided/pursued its practice for many years. If anything, this clearly proves that gold and especially silver prices have been depressed below any reasonable free-market levels. These distortions help to justify momentum analyses which point to even lower prices, in the short term. This well might occur for another year; but eventually this ponzi scheme of ever more and more fiat currency poured onto foundering markets in Europe, Japan and the USA will break down. China and Russia are preparing for this event. It is never wise to try to exactly hit the low point in a market price to buy or the highest possible point to sell; but selling gold and silver now seems to say: "I am so smart I can predict the exact low levels ($880 gold) and then when to buy, later". Dumb people like me would rather hold my $1,170 gold and $15.50 silver for another 4 or 5 years and see where that gets me. How about you?
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: The Recent Sell-Off Has Presented A Long-Term Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I have held both Silver Wheaton and Goldcorp, since SLW it was founded as a spin out from Goldcorp, (which I have held for 13 years). Both have yielded excellent results, despite the current decline in silver and gold bullion prices to extremely depressed levels. Both are excellent choices for a Tax-deferred and/or (in Canada) Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA). Goldcorp pays U.S. $0.05 per share/month dividend or around CAD $0.062. That gives a yield of about 3.75% now! Silver Wheaton pays about CAD $ 0.25/year or a yield on the CAD market price of $21.50 of 1.16%. If you buy about 350 to 400 shares of SLW, or more, you will have enough for the regular dividend re-investment plan (DRIP) to buy 1 share per quarter, or more, as I do. On my original cost of CAD $4.11 for SLW, I am doing extremely well in a tax free savings account, earning 6% on my original funds. SLW is a very well managed company, with growing income, even at these absurdly low silver prices. It is well known that the silver price has been depressed by JPM and Citi Corp short sales for many years. These and 2 other banks, most recently, have silver bullion short positions, together, amounting to over 3 times world annual silver production!! There is no easy way for them to cover these mad derivative paper short portfolios if the silver price should rise rapidly. Most probably their derivative books will blow up. Silver going back to $50 per ounce is not impossible. That would push SLW shares back to $50+, as in June 2011. Industrial silver, jewelry and coin mint demand equals world wide production of new silver now, so there is no excess inventory of silver available to cover these massive short positions. Meanwhile it pays to hold both SLW and GG and wait! When you are 65 you'll be much wealthier, even at 2015 PM prices.
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico Is Drowning [View article]
    I used to do business in Puerto Rico some 45 years ago. At that time business was booming, the island economy was growing, mostly due to the investment of large US manufacturers. Why? Low to no taxes and adequate labour resources at fair wages, with duty-free entry of products as varied as chemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, finished textiles/apparel and consumer goods back into the USA. Raw materials flowed in at low to no tariffs and finished goods flowed out at rich profits. Companies were treated fairly. Government, then, was able to get re-investment via corporate cooperation for such necessities as roads, schools, water-works and power plants. Building of private homes, local community facilities, hospitals, port and airport needs were sustained by a cooperative business-private capital environment, each fulfilling its responsibilities. Then came greedy, lazy government, demanding all the spoils and the whole delightful scene began to crumble, just like Detroit. Who's next? R.I. or Chicago? I've lived in both places. I shudder to think how once prosperous areas have fallen victim to the same foolish, ruinous, unbridled government greed with malfeasance. We've seen it all before, outcome is always the same. When will we ever learn?
    Jun 26, 2015. 10:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp Inc. Is Not A Buy According To Our 2-Factor Model [View article]
    I have owned Goldcorp (GG) for more than 12 years. My cost was $13.40 (US) and it is now trading at about $16.60. (Up about 1.5%/year), matching inflation. The annual dividend at present is $0.05 per month or $0.60/year, yielding 4.48% on my original price; or 3.6% at current market. I hold it purely as a hedge against the possible $ collapse and for potential capital appreciation. GG is very sensitive to the price of gold. Considerable evidence reveals that gold prices have probably been suppressed for the past 10 to 15 years, by selected central banks and some key international banks who coordinate these efforts with the US FED, Bank of England, etc. JP Morgan and a few other international banks have huge holdings of short positions in precious metals as the mechanism to achieve this goal. It permits the printing of large amounts of funds for Quantitative Easing and the depression of interest rates on government bonds. Nobody knows when this scheme will blow-up, just like the LIBOR scandal, it will eventually be exposed by regulators or uncontrolled market reaction, long bond interest rate rises and/or a black swan event. Also it could be triggered by the huge holdings of derivatives that shall eventually become unsustainable as defaults occur. JPM alone holds $75 Trillion in notional derivative liabilities, like credit default swaps, on its books, with little chance of ever winding these down safely. Total world holdings exceed $800 Trillion, with no clearance possibilities, except default and failure of creditors ability to settle. Governments cannot rescue banks from such a derivative disaster. Maybe Greece defaulting will be the trigger of a daisy-chain of defaults, bank by bank. Then gold prices will recover to their real store of wealth values and GG becomes a very profitable company. Meanwhile 4.48% on my money is a fair bargain while I await these events. BMO seems to think, as of June 15, GG will outperform, as it is well managed and has excellent properties to mine. So there are a few sober heads recommending GG as a buy at present. I'll just hold.
    Jun 26, 2015. 12:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cash Dilemma [View article]
    Congress needs to look at double taxation of corporate earnings and then, again, the dividends corporations pay shareholders. A one time "holiday" on repatriated Apple foreign source income, used solely to pay dividends to US based shareholders, would net out a lot of US tax income, winning some real lost money to the IRS. The absurd, doctrinaire greed of the US government is once more evident. They would rather stick to their theory and get no tax revenue, just to preserve their unfair double taxation of corporate earnings concept. Government is full of theorists and devoid of practical people who remain employed in real commerce and industry, not working as unproductive Washington bureaucrats. (i.e. Impotent Drones)
    Jun 22, 2015. 11:21 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing 757 uses "green diesel" fuel blend to fly cross-country [View news story]
    Not mentioned is the competition of alcohol from corn that inflates the price of animal feed grains = higher meat & poultry prices. The distorting economic influence of corn alcohol is vastly under-rated. When government starts to twist market forces and artificially tilt the consumption balances by subsidies and/or legal means, all sorts of unintended consequences pop up. These tend to be self-defeating and result in worse environmental and economic outcomes than the government bureaucrats, (in their myopic wisdom) ever can imagine.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A New Streaming Deal Bring Down Silver Wheaton? [View article]
    In a world of rigged markets and terrible distortions in prices, everything from currencies, crude oil to interest rates is unreal. Trouble is the watch dogs, like CFTC, have been muzzled by those who control or buy government leaders' loyalties. Price discovery in such a scenario is worse than rolling loaded dice in a crooked casino and expecting to get an honest number. Only a real blow-up in the entire market structure has a chance to get some sanity back into silver and gold prices. We're all living in a 21st Century Pompeii by the sea, dreaming that Vesuvius couldn't ever erupt or a Tsunami can't come. It shall; the only thing we don't know is when. Patient money is required in an impatient world. Hold your SLW until then.
    Jun 17, 2015. 05:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Will Reduce Its Interest Expense By More Than 50% [View article]
    I love: CCAR = Central Conference of American Rabbis. Maybe SIFI is the name of a lady Rabbi? (Not to be confused with "Tzipi" Livni, Israeli Politician)? If only we could understand what all these contracted letter terms signify.
    Jun 17, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cracker Barrel's Inefficient Dividend [View article]
    CBRL locations are packed and people wait in line to be seated. Sounds like existing restaurant expansions and more locations can be well rewarded. That strategy is not so clearly revealed by management. My concern is the shifting tastes of consumers as a risk that could spell trouble ahead. Some people I know worry about the fatty/greasy southern style cuisine served up here in the North.
    Watch this aspect more carefully; it could lead to sudden consumer indigestion and shareholder damage.
    Jun 10, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Record Domestic Production Amidst Bottoming Rig Count Screams 'Strong Sell' [View article]
    Yes, this is a watch and watch, day by day and hour by hour; extreme volatility on shorts/longs. If you are a trader, welcome! If you are long, better sell covered calls!
    May 29, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon steps up lobbying over Iran sanctions [View news story]
    Please tell me in simple terms, what does XOM hope to achieve with its lobbying efforts? Does XOM want in or out of Iran?
    May 21, 2015. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Herbalife Is Like Chuck E. Cheese [View article]
    I don't own any HLF shares. Neither am I short any shares. Some of the most profitable and high return stocks available, with fat dividends and loyal followers, sell tobacco and cigarettes. Selling cigarettes to adults is legal in every state and around the world. Does that make this murderous tobacco trade, that kills and injures millions of people, a desirable investment? You can call HLF what you like, legal, friendly, etc. I call it a SCAM = FRAUD. There is plenty of evidence that it is s scam. It deprives millions of people of any hope for income and rips off 90+% of those who try to enter this trade as a "business opportunity", year after year. If scamming unfortunate people to enrich yourself, all you HLF lovers, is your thing, go ahead. When it blows up, deny you were never aware what a SHAM and scam it is; but after all the rhetoric and blogs on HLF do not claim you have been uninformed, unaware or cheated and defeated by unscrupulous promoters of HLF. I'll avoid this one like I avoid cigarettes. Huff & Puff on that.
    May 21, 2015. 02:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas And The 2015 Hurricane Season: Banking On Death And Destruction Is A Losing Bet [View article]
    Nobody has bothered to mention that the nuclear power plant building boom in Asia and elsewhere is going to have an impact on both Natural Gas consumption and CO2 emissions in the years ahead. Climate change is for sure. Causes many, often little understood over the centuries. The dubious simplicity of "only one cause (human activity) fits all reasons" is illogical and unscientific. Problem is that factors to ameliorate it are very complex, intractible by Central Government fiat, alone.
    People turn to governments and totalitarian policies when all hope or reason to understand what is truly going on is abandoned. The "Final Solution" usually is a fruitless Government dictate to limit life, liberty and human pursuit of happiness.
    May 14, 2015. 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
148 Comments
328 Likes