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  • Why I'm Selling Stock: A Global Recession Is Upon Us  [View article]
    The USA need look no further than the True North, Strong and Free! Canada's Banks are the envy of the world. Iceland's moribund banks have recovered and its economy is getting stronger every month, since they adopted Canadian style banking. In 2008 -9 Canadian Banks did well and survived the USA style AIG and Lehman failures. Conversely, Iceland's banks failed and were allowed to go bust, not propped up by the Central Government and its National Bank. Ireland had similar issues back then. Iceland adopted a Canadian style banking system; Ireland is now heading the same way, same model, as their banks recover. In addition to strong arm's length (from central government) regulation, Canadian banks have survived because a more conservative culture pervades all aspects of banking business, from lending to trading. Coupled with high capital reserves and a broad spectrum of bank sources of capital, especially retail banking and investment banking under the same roof, have kept capital ratios and available sources of capital high across all Canadian banks. The key is good regulation and high capital reserves to help weather economic downturns. Will America ever look north? Bernie Sanders does, maybe because he's a neighbor from Vermont. Bernie wants Canadian style Banks and health care. Looks like he's offering the salvation of a Vermont Moses; leading the USA across troubled waters!
    Feb 8, 2016. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Goldcorp Worth Today?  [View article]
    Buying GG as a short term speculation is not wise; a well planned portfolio should have 5% or so in gold shares. Please don't assume recent price actions tell the whole story. I purchased GG way back when it was less than $10 as a long term insurance policy against the insane debt and derivatives scene then unfolding. Based upon my original cost, GG paying $0.24 per share is a tolerable dividend, better than savings bank interest. GG share prices are depressed due to very well documented gold market manipulations and massive bullion bank shorts that are going to change. It is likely that, by the end of 2016, GG could reach $15 to $20 so that would be a decent return to anyone courageous to buy some shares now.
    Feb 4, 2016. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: Can't Believe I Missed This  [View article]
    As a long term SLW holder, I enjoy the dividend re-investment aspect for dividends. Buy backs help to prevent dilution and are helpful to all shareholders. The big issue is the apparent stupidity of the Canadian government' CRA, which initiated this whole short-sighted cash grab under the prior Harper Cabinet; it is NOT a Trudeau issue, yet. SLW is being forced out of Canada into the offshore world just at the time it starts to earn real money, and yield decent taxes. Wrong-way government seems to get blind sided like this even by Conservatives. All Trudeau might do is make a bad decision worse. Yet, he might just be cleaver enough to reverse Harper's policy and kill the suit by launching a poor (losing) court case! His crocodile tears would save SLW as a Canadian based star and earn more long term tax revenues, not just a short term killer tax haul.
    Feb 2, 2016. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero: Why Major Refiner Is My Only Position In Energy Sector  [View article]
    The market is treating VLO share prices very favourably as crude prices drop. Seems to be a clear market misperception of equivalent values, cash flows, earnings and much higher dividends at alternative refiners. PSX is of similar size to VLO, although runs a comparable second to VLO on P/E at 9.08%, but has a slightly better 2.8% dividend, due to a higher 24% payout ratio than VLO (at 15.5%). A better comparison would be with the new Western Refining (WNR) + Northern Tier (NTI) soon to merge companies. Surviving partner, WNR, shall have a rock-solid balance sheet, excellent eps levels, higher % ROA and ROE and now pays double the VLO dividend yield. WNR has a stellar record of dividend increases since 2006, (from $0.04/Quarter to current $0.38 = 22% pay-out on eps). WNR currently yields 5.5% with a record of some special dividends ($1.00 & $2.00/share in 2012 and Nov. 2014). Share buy-backs and growing cash, as well as very low EV/EBITDA and dividends to EPS ratios are equivalent to VLO. WNR trades 6.5% above its 52 week low at $31.65; and 35% below its $48 high. WNR looks over-sold and under valued at this point; = opportunity!.
    Jan 28, 2016. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enbridge shuts Line 9 pipeline due to protest at valve site  [View news story]
    January 26, 2016: It is interesting to see the usual suspects, egged on today by the Mayor of Montreal, out protesting the west to east pipeline proposals to move Canadian oil to Quebec or east-coast refineries & ports. As usual, I've heard no grumbles, seen no protestors, angry about the alternative use of railcar crude transportation; nor the importation of Saudi crude into Quebec. As Iran ramps up its crude exports, our new Liberal government is enthusiastically dismantling all remaining Canadian sanctions against "trade" with Iran. Now, what has Iran got to "trade" with Canada? Ahaa! It's "dirty" Crude Oil. How strange, even our own government gets faint-hearted, equivocal, about aiding or promoting our own oil transportation, trade & oil pipelines east. Our P.M. must "study" the benefits.
    Jan 26, 2016. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T and GM among Buffett's Q3 adds  [View news story]
    When Buffett buys multi $ billion positions you can bet he's involved, despite what his spokespeople say. Buffett's philosophy is to buy and hold "forever" if the company performs half decently. On that basis, I do not agree that, once you discover from his 13F quarterly filings what has happened, it is too late to act. Rather, it makes sense to see the trends as his investment portfolio shifts, quarter by quarter and chart the additions vs. the reductions. Sometimes he has a long game in view as well as special insider's understandings of future plans for companies. His GM investments were a case in point. IBM looks similar; there really is no other way to read this one at present. Superficially it appears to be a dud, something like NOV and oil; circumstances do change, nobody controls all.
    Jan 26, 2016. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With AT&T  [View article]
    If you read my prior comments, T has met all expectations, just as it has done for my family since 1922. It's not the performance of T that curses and frightens me; it's the governments, the courts and the central banks in every country where T must function around them that is the perpetual mine-field. If we can survive these loose cannons, hidden dragons and crouching tigers, all is possible with T!
    Jan 26, 2016. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy Topples The First Domino In Canada's Energy Sector  [View article]
    COS has to be a high cost operation in a world of sub-$30 oil less all the costs of transportation to market. Lucky if a $20 net back will result for the next year. How is any company going to prosper in that scenario? This is shaping up as a classic conglobulation and joint failure. Even the clueless new NDP Alberta Government cannot avoid a burst cash pipeline and tax shortfall in the process, impoverishing everyone involved for years to come!
    Jan 25, 2016. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenbrier Companies: Poised For Long Term Growth  [View article]
    I would very much appreciate receiving an analysis of insider trades since 2014, considering the decline in new order flows. If the CEO is stepping down his holdings that's bad; if others are getting back in, or adding significant new holdings, this negative factor is reduced.
    Jan 25, 2016. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Game Changer  [View article]
    Great article! Please follow my lifetime of experience, (I'm 80 now): Never bet against AT&T!
    This is one of the very few companies that has the capacity to see you through the gathering storm of the next recession, just like it did for my family from 1929 to 1940. And, in war it held up fine 1941 to '45 and again 1950 to '53. The only time it stumbled was back in 1983 - '84 when it was broken up by the US courts. Governments are the big troublemakers for AT&T, but like a ship at sea, it is strong enough to even survive a Washington D.C. fomented tsunami.
    I say buy the shares, re-invest dividends in more share purchases, sell covered calls and you'll grow your asset at 10%/year, compounded. That's what we did since 1922 very successfully.
    Jan 12, 2016. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston 'T' Party? Investors Should Consider Abandoning This Ship  [View article]
    This debate has been very informative and refreshing. Glad to see so many points of view. If everyone held T forever, who would sell to me when I want to buy some?
    Jan 6, 2016. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston 'T' Party? Investors Should Consider Abandoning This Ship  [View article]
    So bitter and yet so young! Hatred, I've found, tends to destroy the unfocused hater fasted than the hated. As Bobby Kennedy used to say: "Don't get mad, get even!" Leave the madness and hatred to ISIS or ISIL or the Taliban; keep a cool head and work around the system. Remember the old adage "do it, try it, fix it" and repeat the cycle. Yes, there are terrible inefficiencies in all commercial transactions the first time you try them. Also, there are opportunity costs to consider. An hour spent to save $10 once is hardly worth your time if you are earning $20/hour!
    The 80/20 rule says 80% of your ripped-off $ is from 20% of your transactions, so hit back and cut the big ones, first.
    Jan 6, 2016. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston 'T' Party? Investors Should Consider Abandoning This Ship  [View article]
    I like your logic and am an inheritor of my Dad's T shares. But, remember to diversify your holdings, never put more than 10% to 15% in any one issue or 25% in any one narrow industry/business area. That's the hard part when, year after year, that 5.5% dividend just keeps rolling in. Finding reasonable alternative companies and business sectors is a constant search which few are willing to make alone, unaided. Seeking Alpha articles are a good way to start and keep abreast of these moving targets. Be dedicated, be skeptical, watch out for fads that fail, like Chipotle and leave you with heart-burn or worse. Sift the evidence and be ready to drop companies that disappoint or industries, like oil & gas, that get into periodic chaos cycles. Few have paid rising dividends for the past 25 years or more, so they are worth careful analysis; in God we trust, all others pay cash! When the cash stream starts to dry up, I say, move on, seek fresh water. Nothing lasts forever!
    Jan 6, 2016. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts' Estimates On Goldcorp: Read Between The Lines  [View article]
    Gold is forming a bottom now in the $1,000 to $1,100 range. An outlier might be $900 on the down-side. It seems very unlikely interest rates or oil and commodity prices will shoot up for most of the first half of 2016; after that we could start to see a mild recovery in all commodities. Gold price is the only arbitrator of the stock price on GG, so it should be played in that vein. The price of GG is also bottoming, probably not much below $10, (or around $14.50 CAD as G-TSX). Few, if any, alternatives shall survive this shake-out. Kirkland Lake, with its St. Andrews (SAS) acquisition is one that looks very interesting as a speculation on future gold price appreciation. Assuming you want some insurance against hyperinflation risk, you should put up to 5% of assets in gold and silver (SLW) shares. Both G and SLW pay enough in dividends to make that a reasonable provision for the patient long term investor today. It is truly too soon to speculate; however that could get really interesting if gold could move higher than $1,100/ounce for a month or more and hold up.
    Also, there is a hinted relationship between gold and crude oil prices, but it's not very clear.
    Jan 6, 2016. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera Bread Could Be A 3-For-1 Split Just Awaiting The Slicing Machine  [View article]
    As a long term Panera customer and share holder of more recent times, this article does a superb job of focus on all the reasons to invest now in this fine company. It stands head and shoulders over all other peers out there, with the right strategy for future change and path to consistent growth. I would prefer a split and the establishment of a dividend policy, to compete with its nearest similar size casual food company, Cracker Barrel (CBRL). Balanced, measured growth is far better than hyper-growth, followed by loss of managerial control and the inevitable Chipotle style e-coli/tainted food catastrophe. (Our family will NEVER go to a Chipotle restaurant now, no matter what they do!); we will never buy Chipotle shares, either.
    Jan 6, 2016. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment