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  • Arena Pharmaceuticals Price Target Sets Low Bar [View article]
    Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

    Refering to your comment that "Perhaps, Credit Suisse has done those long term fans and investors in Arena a favor creating new buying opportunities.", I just used this opportunity to add on to my long position today.
    Sep 7, 2012. 03:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Google Did Not 'Flip-Flop' Or Concede To Ongoing Royalties [View article]
    I liked this article for the following reasons:

    a. He states his purpose clearly. "I intend to write a series of articles, each addressing a specific issue that I believe affects the value of VRNG." In my opinion, the point of this article was to rebut Ravicher's earlier article. He then addresses this specific issue.

    b. He gives all 3 reasons as propounded by Google for a delay. He does not cherry pick. He states that he thinks that Ravicher's argument that the judge will not grant a delay is wrong and proceeds to say why he thinks the judge will grant a delay.

    In my opinion, what he is basically saying, in plain language for traders is, "Do not trade February options. Either go long the stock or the warrants. Yes, options can give you more bang for your buck but they can also fizzle out."

    c. In line with my point a, he also destroys Ravicher's article by stating that Google has not conceded anything and gives specific docket numbers as to which areas they are still fighting, which is basically everything.

    d. He also basically states that one should be cautious when trading this stock. This is actually sound advice when trading any stock. DO NOT RISK IT ALL ON ONE STOCK.

    @those commenters who are bashing him
    Please re-read the article again. Remember, he is not pumping the stock up. Neither is he bashing it. This article is just to address one issue that is of timing.

    Also, look to those who are long.
    SteveKimLaw is long but he has stated in one of his first articles, "This is a bet."
    Kevin Porter who is also long has practiced sound money management. His position in VRNG is less than 10% of his total portfolio.
    In my opinion, the odds of a win for VRNG are very good but even a 90% chance of winning includes a 10% chance of losing. So take care.
    As James mentions, The risk reward at this stage is still in favour of VRNG but do not throw everything at it yet.

    Be safe and sleep soundly.
    Jan 9, 2013. 02:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Value In The Jury's Mistake [View article]
    I agree entirely with what you are saying.

    Be careful of what you are saying. If you have followed the trial, you would note that Judge Jackson (JJ) has made most of his rulings in favour of Vringo. The laches ruling was just about the only rule he made that was in favour of Vringo. To accuse a federal judge of accepting a payoff because the stock did not move in your favour is NOT OK.
    Dec 13, 2012. 06:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use Excess Cash In Stock Analysis [View article]
    Your formula
    Excess Cash = Cash - Current Liabilities + (Current Assets - Cash)

    can be simplified to
    Excess Cash = Current Assets - Current Liabilities

    as the 2 cash terms cancel out.
    Oct 9, 2012. 12:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing Peregrine And Seeking Upside In The Space [View article]
    The biopharm industry is a high risk - high reward sector. If you want to find fault with the author, find fault with his analysis either by pointing out mistakes in facts, methodology, analysis. But to ignore the entire industry because one stock does badly is rather unfair.
    Oct 1, 2012. 09:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The economy should hit its stride late into next year, says Moody's Analytic's Mark Zandi. He's forecasting 4% growth into 2014, citing continued strength in U.S. corporations due to cost cuts and better profit margins. All we need to do is "nail down those fiscal issues," Zandi says. “By 2014-15, the surprise is going to be how strong the economy is growing.” [View news story]
    Forget the $16 trillion in debt. Can we even get a balanced budget?

    I notice some anti-Obama remarks out there. It's not just Obama. It's the entire Congress, both parties that are not doing their jobs.

    Last year after both parties could not come to some sort of agreement on the budget deficit, Congress voted themselves a pay increase. Wish I was in a position where I could vote a pay rise for myself?
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'No QE' Bernanke Will Disappoint Markets Friday [View article]
    "If they do NOT do some sort of easing, there is a high probability that these markets are going to crash. "

    Would that really be a bad thing? A healthy market is a market that goes up, corrects, then goes up again. What I see now is a market going up and up and up with no correction. The reason it is going up is due to the artificial tinkerings of the Fed, the ECB over in Europe. The more you tinker, the bigger the eventual correction will be. I agree with you that the Fed has painted itself into a corner.

    Disclosure: I am currently long the market but I have hedged my position with puts on the SPY.
    Aug 28, 2012. 08:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Come on. This is farce," says tech legal site Groklaw, incredulous Apple-Samsung jurors took only 21 hours to deliberate over a 700-question form one lawyer says would take him 3 days to understand. Groklaw is also unimpressed with contradictory statements from jurors, several verdict inconsistencies, and the fact jurors reached a decision without reading a 109-page instruction form (.pdf). Some lawyers are predicting this case will reach the Supreme Court, due to the issues it raises about UI and design patents. (more[View news story]
    Not quite. You forget that this was a legal case. I have looked at the document in question. It is a set of instructions from the judge to the jury to be read after hearing both sides of the arguments brought before the court. That means that they are supposed to read the instructions before delibrating on the matter. The lead juror's statement that "they didn't need the instructions" is a big red flag that Groklaw picked up. I predict that this will go higher up.
    Aug 25, 2012. 10:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Bulls Are Playing A Dangerous Game [View article]
    Something here that I don't understand.

    You have 2 disclaimers; one at the top just after the article title and one at the bottom at the end of the article. In the 2nd disclaimer, you state that you own intermediate term puts on GLD. This is consistent with your article. Yet in your first disclaimer, you state that you are long SLV. Why is this?

    I was under the impression that silver and gold prices are positively correlated. They may not be perfectly correlated but they are positively correlated.

    I can only think of 2 explanations:
    A. This is a typographical error and you are actually short SLV, or
    B. Your position in SLV is a hedge against your position in GLD.

    A brief answer would be greatly appreciated.

    Thank you very much.
    Aug 17, 2014. 05:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Invidious Reach Of Personal-Finance Snake Oil [View article]
    Actually it's all a balance. One SHOULD not go and spend all one's money. Saving some is a good idea.At the same time, one SHOULD not just scrimp and save. One SHOULD also have some fun.

    I have capitalized the "shoulds" because what one should do and what one actually does are 2 different things. That's how the economy works. There are savers and there are spenders. The trick is balancing the 2.
    Jan 14, 2013. 09:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Judge Should Rule Favorably For Vringo On Motions [View article]
    Just added onto my position. Bought another 500 shares (300 at $3.01 yesterday and another 200 at $2.87 today).
    Dec 18, 2012. 03:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo: Could It Be Worth $2 Billion? [View article]
    This is like a class reunion. We have all the old familiar faces here.
    1. James Altucher
    2. Kevin Porter
    3. marpha
    4. Alan Brochstein
    5. Modernist
    6. Maria Auziliadora
    7. Revanche
    8. princetonatty
    9. H_H
    10. Anonynonymous Member

    Only SteveKimLaw is missing from the party.
    Nov 16, 2012. 10:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Take A Deep Breath, The Roller Coaster Continues [View instapost]
    More experienced traders look at hypothetical situations but we adjust our positions based on risk/reward.

    Let me clarify. Before this came up, the stock was trading at about $4. Based on my analysis, downside was $1. Upside was stock could go to $8 to $9, let's say $8. That was a $3 downside and a $4 upside. Odds were better than 50% that VRNG would prevail. Hence I went long. However this was a straight coin flip. Hence I went in with little money so as to limit my losses in case the case went against me.

    Now, the upside is definitely less. I have taken some money off the table at a loss but I am still long VRNG. Note that I am not working out hypothetical scenarios but rather working on money management. That is the no. 1 skill of a trader.
    Nov 1, 2012. 04:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Of Settlements, Buyouts And New Jets [View article]
    It's mentioned in the article.

    If Google buys out Vringo for, say, $12, then your initial $3 investment turns into $12 and that's it. You don't get anything more. Vringo is part of Google then.

    If Google reaches a settlement, then they pay Vringo a lump sum and your share price goes up. Then Vringo sue ZTE and get another settlement and your share price goes up some more. Then Vringo sue another company and get another settlement and your share price goes up some more. And so on.
    Oct 4, 2012. 11:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anti-American Unrest Threatens McDonald's Shares [View article]
    The entire premise of this article is that "extremist foreigners, e.g. those in Pakistan, will destroy American companies by destroying their premises". I do not see any meaningful analysis.

    Questions not answered were as follows:
    1. How many stores does McDonalds have in Pakistan and/or the Middle East vs. a) USA b) Europe c) South America?
    2.What is the percentage of sales on a region by region basis?

    Personally I find the entire article to be rubbish.

    1. The recession in Europe and/or the USA causing more people to eat at home rather than going out is likely to have a bigger impact than the possible future actions of these "extremists".
    2. The health effects of fast foods causing more people to discard these so-called junk foods in favour of more healthy eating habits is also likely to have a bigger effect than the possible future actions of these "extremists".

    All in all, a rather al;armist article that does not contribute anything substantial.
    Sep 28, 2012. 05:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment