haydete

Recent World Events Are Bullish for Metals

I think you've left out timing in your analysis of coal and natgas supply. Oil takes time to find and produce from deepwater holes; natgas is still being found under ground rather than water (witness all the shale properties that are coming onstream soon) and can reasonably catch up to fill energy supply shortages. However, like oil, you don't flip a coal switch to suddenly get more.

And because electricity growth outside the US is now the same as coal growth the price of coal is less an immediate supply-demand issue, but perhaps more a global growth proxy. ESKOM is going to buy expensive coal long before they build a nuclear power plant.