EJL

RIM’s Relentless Pursuit of Nortel's LTE Patents

There's a reason pit bulls are often involved in dog fighting - they're ferocious. and once they lock their jaws, forget about it. RIM would be served well to continue to be a pit bull if it helps them get the IP.

Nortel: Get Ready for the LTE Patent Shootout

This sentence makes zero sense.

On Aug 23 06:33 PM JamesApple wrote:

Rim continues to
> rely on selling blackberrys to Verizon at 77% below retail value,
> offering multiple blackberrys giveaways per unit sale in order to
> maintain Rim's minimum annual pro forma sales volume of 22 million
> units for book value for balance sheet reporting to the governing
> bodies and stakeholders, artificially boosting the sales amount and
> pushing the costs and deductions into future periods in order to
> make Rim's financial status look presentable.

Microsoft Should Think Big, Not Bing

This is one of the strangest comments I have seen. One who calls microsoft the name "myopicsoft" then speaks of the most important thing for them is to go after fingerprint id technology. huh? isn't that notion extreme myopia? or are you trying to hock your own fingerprint id solution? your posts just get weirder by the day.

It is obvious management needs to be changed. The company should shut down all its extraneous money losing businesses and focus on a few core things. But Ballmer just can't face the fact that he is unable to manage such an enterprise and needs to be everything to everyone. Remember his response to the first iPhone when he laughed? very unprofessional. It seems the joke is on him as windows mobile is losing while Apple and RIM dominate the space. Then there was the infamous chair throwing incident when he was jumping around on stage like a monkey on crack. This is just not the stuff of top flight executives.


On Aug 04 03:05 PM JamesApple wrote:

> Microsoft has become Myopicsoft again in failing vision.
>
> The real future in computing is Access. What good is communication
> if you cannot access anything? What good are computer security if
> anybody can access anything?
>
> Microsoft should address this access issue, and this issue begins
> and ends with one thing - fingerprint authentication and authorization
> that is foolproof, fast, and available. An available technology is
> already here and its importance and innovation is no less than Nortel's
> LTE technology.
>
> Microsoft should look into it. And yes, don't waste time on Identix,
> Liska etc. Today's fingerprint authentications simply do not work,
> there is only one that truly works, and I have it.

Here's an Unconventional Idea: Sell Apple

You are flat out wrong here. The company has $31B in cash and equivalents, including maturities longer than a year. When you have this much cash it makes perfect sense to ladder out some maturities beyond a year. Most likely, this is a portfolio dominated by US Treasury securities that are amongst the most liquid investments out there - which you can access in 1 business day. You do not have to wait for maturity to get your cash, an amateurish assumption on your part.

I also think that the quarter that was just reported by the company flies in the face of many of your points. In this economy, to put up those numbers is flat out impressive. Update the models, use accurate numbers, and you can see the company sells for about 12x FCF. Forget EPS, it is meaningless, follow the cash.


On Jul 08 01:30 PM Ryan Pollack wrote:

> Does not look like $25 billion in cash + equivalents to me. phx.corporate-ir.net/E...;t=1.
> I get the same numbers form Yahoo and Google finance. Do not add
> short-term investments to cash and equivalents as they may not be
> that liquid. Short-term is a year or less. If waiting a year that
> is not liquid to me.

The Strange Dance Between Nortel and RIM

PS. I don't normally rant like this, but if you have followed this guy's comments over time, you'll see a very clear pattern of absurdity. He deserves the treatment I give him.

The Strange Dance Between Nortel and RIM

ALL this crap written by JamesApple is nothing more than drivel.

This person couldn't think his way out of a paper bag yet he is questioning a move that could provide RIM with a huge amount of tax credits, engineers, and IP for LTE which only helps them in the future when patent trolls try to come after them. Maybe they'll flip the equipment biz and keep the IP? hmm, might be a rational thing to do... and how is it "quite clear that rim is leaving the phone making biz"? is there any other clue than this? you are clueless.

JamesApple should return to his unix server. What's funniest is that while this a$$hole is talking about rim going into bankruptcy, how rim should shut down its blackberry business, how partners subsidizing bbs is bad for rim, the company will continue to sell many more blackberries this quarter, next quarter, and the following quarter than apple's iphone and they will continue to produce over $500 mln in after tax profits each quarter. i'm not sure how this moron thinks that is a recipe for bankruptcy, but i guess when one spends all his days inside a unix server geeking out over computer code instead of studying the market for these devices, it is possible to come up with such misleading conclusions. when will jamesapple just stop posting this nonsense? will it ever stop?

and don't think for a second that the iphone won't continue to be a huge win for apple and consumers, but the pragmatic truth is that there is plenty of room for a number of smartphone vendors to be successful in the next few years. But don't tell that to jamesa$$hole, he can't stand facts.

Palm Pre, iPhone 3GS Snag Sales from RIM

Ahhh, now I know where the hostility comes from! I have never had any type of issue with Blackberry hardware and I have owned just about every one of their models over time. From talking with others as well, most people seem to be very happy with the durability of their Blackberries. I guess your experience is what frames your opinion but it's still a stretch when your write all those blatantly stupid things about RIM. Why such hostility?

On Jul 08 12:31 PM JamesApple wrote:

> I bought my first cell phone from Motorola back around 1986 and I
> am proud of having owned just about every make of mobile phone on
> the planet. Frankly I had the most hardware and software problem
> with the blackberry 8700, 8300, Storm. I was able to uae the 8300
> for a week only, this Curve spent the rest of the time being fixed
> by Rim. The Storm had more problem than I care to mention. blackberry
> gave me the least satisfaction, I had to exchange my company issued
> blackberry several times too. I call my blackberries the blackoutberries,
> and I am not the only one. I am so impressed by iPhone that I am
> now a proud owner of 2 iPhones, 4 iPods, 2 iMacs, and a whole slew
> of Apple accesories. Apple seems works with no hassles, easy as hell
> to use, even the wiFi works beautifully all the time without hazzles.
> I stupidly left my iPhone in my pants pocket which got washed in
> the laundery machine with Tide and hot water, tumbled in the dryer
> for an hour and half, I was sure the iPhone was toast, but after
> I left it to cool for a day, I recharged it and to my utter surprise,
> the poor iPhone booted and work again! Thanks to the crystal case
> I had bought and used in the iPhone. I am so impressed by Apple.
>
>
> The Pre is no iPhone, but upon fiddling with thr Pre for 4 weeks,
> I like the Pre a lot more than I thought. The Pre is an excellent
> email/messaging phone, it puts the blackberries to utter shame.<br/>
>
> I use my blackberries for paperweights. The 8700 makes a nice hockey
> puck.

Update on the Pre and the Fate of Palm

You explicitly contradicted yourself here. You can't say give it time to catch up AND Pre is already king of the hill. You are delusional if you think Pre is king - there is nothing factual to support this, not the launch (50k units?), not the lack of apps (what 18 apps?), not the shoddy construction (cracks? many quality issues), not the barely usable keyboard (did they put any time into designing it or the knife's edge at the bottom - JNJ stock has surged from all the band aid sales from cut up Pre users), and certainly not the copied browser and gestures. So I ask again, how can Pre both catch up in a year AND be king of the hill already? Your posts are worthless.


On Jul 07 05:30 PM Aryamehr wrote:


> With time the Pre will become more established among consumers and
> a fairer comparison will emerge. IMHO the Pre is still the king
> of the market and it has only been around for a month. This time
> next year there will be millions of Pre users and thousands of applications
> to choose from at which time you will be able to make a more accurate
> analysis on how well the Pre is doing relative to the iPhone and
> the rest of the Smart phone market.

Update on the Pre and the Fate of Palm

And this is exactly why you have no clue about the general market for these devices. You believe that just because you are an uber-geek with a powerful platform in your hand, able to do all these things (that maybe 1/100th of 1% of mobile users actually do) it will automatically translate to market dominance to the point that all other competitors are vanquished. If you think like a layperson, a non-techie, you will see it is obvious that many users will choose an iPhone, many users will choose a Blackberry, many users will choose a Pre, and many users will choose other devices. In an industry subset that is growing so dramatically over the coming years, doesn't it stand to reason that many manufactures will prosper? This is just a natural progression of current trends. If you got your head out of your unix server, you would see this.


On Jul 07 06:28 PM JamesApple wrote:

> When I jailbreak my iPhone with Cydia, my iPhone becomes a full blown
> Unix server capable of running existing Unix programs that are currently
> running on my company's other Unix servers for critical enterprise
> applications such as employee payroll, accounts receivable, general
> ledger, supply chain functions, marketing campaigns and promotions,
> sales, I even use my iPhone as a POS, RFID warehouse control, shipping,
> receiving, management reporting, business intelligence. I fully utilize
> the 16 gig of iPhone flash memory, I import/export business information,
> email, SMS, twitter, contacts, calender using MobileMe as my cloud
> service giving gigabytes of storage anywhere, anytime, I set up my
> iPhone to multiple Unix servers running scripts and cron jobs, I
> have access to teams of open source expert developers developing
> java, web applucations, c programs, php,

Palm Pre Sales Tapering Off; Roger McNamee Eating Crow on iPhone Prediction

JamesApple must be on vacation - usually he's all over these posts spewing.

Does this surprise anyone? The Pre will sell fine, but it will taper off and settle into a "normal" sales pattern (at whatever pace normal is) and then it will spike again when Pre becomes available on GSM networks in Europe. The success or failure shouldn't be judged just yet for WebOS.

Here's an Unconventional Idea: Sell Apple

Have you looked at his numbers? Some of the inputs are dead wrong as I pointed out above, and others just don't smell right. You are correct that the Apple fans always come out in full force, but in this case there is validity to their points.

I am glad that Apple took the "Vow" factor out of the iPhone, but they absolutely did not take the "Wow" factor out no matter how much the entry price (subsidized) is. The secret sauce is the software that is updated periodically to enhance the experience and add functionality.

If the iPhone becomes the most successful smartphone platform out there, the stock wiull grow plenty.


On Jul 06 11:40 AM rajsekar wrote:

> Just look at the standard response from Apple fans (Brewer et al).
> These guys cannot comprehend a fact that Apple stock has limitations
> for growth. Instead of doing a constructive analysis of Ryan's numbers,
> they jump to trash anyone who writes negative about Apple's growth.
> If all analysts are Gene Munster, then Apple should be trading for
> $400 by now. I have been commenting all along that Apple has taken
> the Vow factor out of iPhone. All Apple products are in premium category
> and the company derives its profit margin from this price range.
> Now all of a sudden, $99 iPhone has watered down this long held premium
> position. The result will be that market will be flooded to an extent
> with iPhones. So where is the uniqueness and Vow factor for iPhone?
> Any Tom, Dick and Harry will have an iPhone and majority of consumers
> don't like that, especially people who consider cell phone as a
> fashion item. For the coming holiday season, we can expect buy one
> $99 iPhone and get one free plan (or) $49 iPhone with 3 year AT&amp;T
> contract.

Here's an Unconventional Idea: Sell Apple

Now that I looked at the spreadsheets, I really believe this authir misses the mark.

In the CAPM evaluation, he thinks the company would be worth around $60? Yet they have over $30/share in cash. This is obviously a ridiculous assumption.

In the FCF model, the author puts cash at $11B, not the correct figure around $30B - this means the valuation is off by over $20 on each, meaning the low end of the target range is around $147/share and the high end is almost $190/share.

The author should correct these issues, and in doing so, his opinion may change. I didn't even look deeper, but these inconsistencies are enough to conclude the entire article is questionable.

Here's an Unconventional Idea: Sell Apple

When the Mobile phone market is 4X the size of the PC industry in units, the iPhone carries the highest margin for the company, and with the traction iPhone is gaining, it's hard to envision Apple doing anything but growing massively in the coming years. After backing out the cash on the balance sheet, the FCF multiple is quite attractive, even if they can't match last years $10/share FCF. I question this author's assumptions about cannibalization and the fact that he believes that the $99 price tag of the 3G model will hurt margins gives readers a clue that this author either doesn't understand the economics of the subsidy or he choses to ignore it. Both of which are hazardous to his outcome.

Did Apple Steal the Palm Pre’s Thunder?

All you folks are getting mired in minutia, and nearby lives myopia. The Palm Pre is good enough to sell enough devices to make the company profitable. For example, if Palm makes about $200 gross profit per phone (cost around $170-200, ASP at least $370, if not higher) then 1 million phones per quarter equals about $800 mln gross profit, which leaves them plenty of money for SG&A, R&D, and some profit.

The smartphone is a growing subset of the industry with only about 13-15% of total annual mobile device sales now. Imagine when the percentage is higher AND the total number of units is higher over time. The bottom line is that the rising tide will lift all boats, and the Pre is a decent enough boat to participate.

My personal opinion, the Pre is neither an iPhone for that gooey UI and media/apps consumption, nor is it anything close to the Blackberry for messaging/communication (MVS?) and security. SO where does it leave it? Selling a few million phones each year to consumers/small businesses as just another option out there.

Madoff's Investors Don't Deserve Compensation or Sympathy

I think you are referring to the fraudulent taxes paid by investors on fraudulent gains/income over the years and changes that were made to accommodate such a massive fraud in providing a farther look back. I may be wrong, but if in the interest of fairness, it seems to make sense to allow these folks who paid all these taxes to recoup them if the gains were never there.

However, in some cases, which I know of personally, the investors were there for so long, that the many years of fraudulent taxes paid may very well have exceeded the original investment (which should be the limit of what can be recovered and not the subsequent non existent growth, i.e. I may have lost 10 million, but I only invested 3 million 15 years ago, so i should only be entitled to receive up to 3 million back between tax refunds, SIPC, and recovered assets). This seems like a fair way to approach it, regardless of whether you invested $100k through a feeder or $100 million directly.

The government has the responsibility to prosecute such a fraudster, so I'm not of the opinion that these efforts are wasted (although I truly believe a slow death is the correct punishment - we don't need this type of person anywhere in our society). Let's be careful when talking about how this affects all tax payers. Why? If the government did nothing now, why would any taxpayers want to get involved with capital markets or capital formation, two very important functions in a capitalist society (even in one with socialist tendencies!)

The last time I saw the government hurry to help all taxpayers were these ridiculous bailout packages they rushed to sign last fall. Was that a good idea? Maybe, maybe NOT. My point is that haste isn't the answer. A more pragmatic approach would be nice, but when congress is so interested in getting re-elected, the best long term policies are often replaced with short term feel good policies. Where is the short term sacrifice for long term health in our institutions? This is what we need now to remind ourselves of what made this country great, hard work and sacrifice, not leverage and outwardly focused blame.


On Jul 01 08:59 PM Matthew Rafat wrote:

> EJL: I don't mind Madoff investors getting SIPC funds--the SIPC is
> funded by member broker-dealers, not taxpayers. Above all, the special
> tax breaks bother me, as well as the speed by which Congress changed
> tax laws to benefit Madoff's investors.
>
> I am also bothered that our government is spending so much time prosecuting
> Madoff when more urgent matters exist, especially ones that affect
> all taxpayers. When was the last time you saw the government move
> so quickly on issues that primarily impact middle-class and poor
> Americans?