Re: "non-farm payrolls have been improving lately".
You can throw out the latest Birth/Death Model (guess/fraud) number of 175,000. The NFIB just stated (paraphrasing) they see no sign of increased hiring, which remains extremely weak.
The 175,000 new jobs was supposed to come from small business.
As far as the other "jobs" are concerned, part-time, low-paying is the name of the game. Next week's report will include the 62,000 McDonalds minimum wage jobs.
6 Worries That Could Trigger a Summer Pullback [View article]
Re: #3 above. Remember the 175,000 jobs added in the birth-death guess? That was supposed to be in small business.
Today's NFIB report notes hiring plans are not consistent with the solid payroll gains of the April employment report. This mismatch, according to the NFIB, suggests that the bulk of new hiring is happening in larger firms.
If it’s not happening in small business, then you have to subtract the 175,000 guess from the employment report.
Take away the 62,000 low-paying, part-time McDonald jobs and you get 7,000.
Also the increased rate to 9% was not from discouraged workers re-entering the work force. Just the opposite happened - the participation rate decreased.
Notes on the Unemployment Rate: Job Creation Isn't the Problem [View article]
Calculate the UR the same way the BLS did prior to the mid-nineties and it's close to 12%. Calculate the UR the same way the BLS did prior to the mid-eighties and it close to 25%.
The only historical data you can use (without adjustment) is the last 15 years.
In a Heartbeat, Oil Supply Picture Changes [View article]
We know the ratio of Saudi high-sulphur crude needed to replace the low-sulphur Libya crude is 3 :1.
We know S.A. was already exceeding their quota.
We know (from the leaked diplomatic cables) S.A. has been misleading (lying) about it's spare capacity and reserves.
We know Russia's oil infrasructure is crumbling from lack of investment.
The only thing that will stop the rise in the price of oil will be demand destruction as the world economies continue to spiral down into depression. The pause before the next leg down is almost over.
Reasons For Optimism On The Long-Term Economic Outlook [View article]
The U.S. Economy After the Debt Ceiling Debate Concludes [View article]
Global Manufacturing Saved by the U.S. [View article]
The most important section was new orders which were soft.
The increase was due to inventory build.
The divergence between new orders and inventories is huge.
That is bad, not good.
New Jobless Claims Rise Again [View article]
You can throw out the latest Birth/Death Model (guess/fraud) number of 175,000.
The NFIB just stated (paraphrasing) they see no sign of increased hiring, which remains extremely weak.
The 175,000 new jobs was supposed to come from small business.
As far as the other "jobs" are concerned, part-time, low-paying is the name of the game.
Next week's report will include the 62,000 McDonalds minimum wage jobs.
Market Forecasts vs. Leading Indicators: Filtering Out Short-Term Noise [View article]
Not according to today's NFIB report.
Take away the 175,000 birth/death guess (fraud).
6 Worries That Could Trigger a Summer Pullback [View article]
I just read a report the 62,000 McDonald hires will be counted on the next Monthly report.
6 Worries That Could Trigger a Summer Pullback [View article]
Remember the 175,000 jobs added in the birth-death guess? That was supposed to be in small business.
Today's NFIB report notes hiring plans are not consistent with the solid payroll gains of the April employment report. This mismatch, according to the NFIB, suggests that the bulk of new hiring is happening in larger firms.
If it’s not happening in small business, then you have to subtract the 175,000 guess from the employment report.
Take away the 62,000 low-paying, part-time McDonald jobs and you get 7,000.
Also the increased rate to 9% was not from discouraged workers re-entering the work force.
Just the opposite happened - the participation rate decreased.
Not such a "decent April jobs report" after all.
Notes on the Unemployment Rate: Job Creation Isn't the Problem [View article]
Calculate the UR the same way the BLS did prior to the mid-eighties and it close to 25%.
The only historical data you can use (without adjustment) is the last 15 years.
The ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Growth Is Holding Steady [View article]
U.S. Growth Expectations Neglect Weak Consumer Sector [View article]
You might want to add, the consumer plus mortgage debt reduction is mostly from defaults.
In a Heartbeat, Oil Supply Picture Changes [View article]
We know S.A. was already exceeding their quota.
We know (from the leaked diplomatic cables) S.A. has been misleading (lying) about it's spare capacity and reserves.
We know Russia's oil infrasructure is crumbling from lack of investment.
The only thing that will stop the rise in the price of oil will be demand destruction as the world economies continue to spiral down into depression. The pause before the next leg down is almost over.
In a Heartbeat, Oil Supply Picture Changes [View article]
Repairing refinery infrastructure is a walk in the park compared to repairing nuclear infrastructure.
Some reactors were still offline from the '07 quake which was much smaller.
Financial Disconnect: Fiat Money Sustaining a False Recovery [View article]
Nit picking here:
I thought we needed at least 150,000 just to tread water.