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shangjeen

shangjeen
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  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    @rmccleary

    Why use IDC instead of the company's actual reported figures?

    1) Because IDC is a neutral 3rd party with no vested interest instead of Johnny C and his stock pumper talk (buyout at $100 - lol!, cashflow +ve by Q4 and other outrageous statements)
    2) Because IDC is globally recognized as having one of the most reliable sources of channel information regarding device movement and demand
    3) Because I have as much faith in the words coming out of Johnny C's mouth as I do with that coming from your typical pump-and-dump promoter talk - as you correctly surmised, BBRY can creatively account "sales" by old inventory offloading and other dirty tricks to achieve Johnny's short-term "cashflow positive" but long-term highly detrimental to the company.

    "You *do know* that Blackberry has moved to reporting revenues from units actually sold and not just booking revenue from units shipped"

    Correct - because it's easier to use creative accounting that way. Nobody knows if the units sold were shipped Q4 2013 and sitting on a shelf for the last 6 mths whereby they were sold at a knockdown price instead of shipped and sold same quarter at a premium. Do notice that "most of the units sold were BB7 devices" which confirms this point in the Q2 earnings release, despite them claiming they "recognized revenue on 3.7m smartphones" in 1 quarter. That ALMOST sounds like they could reach 10m in 2014 - when the reality is new demand is dropping like a stone. 3.4m shipped in Q1 (IDC), 1.5m in Q2 (IDC).

    "Are we going on sales, or shipments?"

    Shipments as per IDC
    Aug 20 11:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    @rmccleary:

    It's an or, but just for you we'll call it a AND. FY2014 - calendar year. I don't give a hoot about BBRY's creative accounting.

    Also, we use IDC figures - 1.5m shipped in Q2 2014. No Johnny C stock pumping figures here. I'll be gracious and give you "shipped" instead of rounding down 10% for "sold".
    Aug 19 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    @FFT:

    "there are many other catalysts that could explode in the next 4 months (bes10/12, Z3 sales, eBBM, BBM Android/iOS update, Classic, QNX, short squeeze)"

    BES - I don't see it being a catalyst at all. At best, BES will just maintain BBRY's marketshare in an increasingly highly competitive MDM market where BBRY offers very little in the way of vertical integration compared to it's competitors (MSFT, VMWare, Cisco) who not only have traditional MDM but also expertise in the fixed-line networking business. Then you have Samsung (KNOX) which has a pretty mediocre MDM but phones that people actually want. We haven't even talked about the IBM-AAPL behemoth yet...

    Z3/Classic - more negative catalysts. Moto E and Xiaomi have BB's traditional markets by the throat. Xiaomi just launched in Indonesia and Moto E has been tearing it up in Latam.

    BBM Android/iOS - oh behave.

    QNX - dying like BB. AndroidDrive is coming, in a big way.
    Aug 19 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    mapodga:

    Biotech is well known as the "gambling" vertical of stocks, especially developmental biotech. You can lose your shirt as soon as gain a 150% or even 500% gain (yes, it can and does happen). Biotech is high-risk, high-reward.

    BBRY though, is high-risk, low-reward. The way I see it the stock is virtually certain to have many negative catalysts throughout 2014 and (unless the investment thesis changes substantially or someone gets crazy enough to buy them) through 2015. I can't even see one positive catalyst on the horizon.

    I speak to other analysts and very few believe BBRY can be cashflow positive at the end of 2014. The most optimistic believes BBRY will be cashflow positive the way HTC is - via drastic cost cuts, which are short term, while revenue continues to decline. And soon to be cashflow negative again.
    Aug 19 05:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    As another Apple long who is taking profits at $100, I understand what you mean about Blair. I'm bullish the company, not so much the stock.

    But just why the hell would you invest in a basket case company like BBRY? If you want to gamble on a speculative turnaround - there are better plays. Heck buy biotech if you're so inclined.

    Blackberry is dead money. The Passport is virtually guaranteed to be a negative catalyst - and it's why I'm shorting the stock.
    Aug 19 04:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    @Bomber Joe:
    "the Passport is designed to display X-rays, MRI scans, CAT scans and engineering drawings, all of which are in a square format."

    Truly the most deluded of the long arguments, which show how out of touch they are with reality.

    The Passport has a tiny screen. At 4.5", it's smaller than the S5 and smaller than the upcoming iPhone. X-rays, MRIs, CAT Scans and Engineering drawings are all worthless to look at in their natural resolution without enlarging and tap to zoom. Show me a doctor who can honestly diagnose an X-ray on a 4.5" screen without zooming in and his name would be Clark Kent. As it is, if you've been around REAL doctors you know that they hold full-size MRI and X-ray printouts a few inches from their faces when they study them anyway.

    Now, doubtless the Passport can zoom - but so what? What would be the difference with viewing and tap to zoom on an iPhone or S5 in that case? Why suffer with a horrendous form factor and a device that's uglier than sin for the same functionality as an S5? Oh because it displays 60 characters? LOL.

    PS: Any doctor or engineer who wants to look at attachments containing technical drawings or MRIs in their natural resolution? There's a device for that. It's called iPad.
    Aug 19 03:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    It's not about consumers buying Blackberry even.

    It's whether carriers and device resellers think enough consumers will buy the devices from them.

    Big tip: They don't. DOA.

    T-mob isn't the only carrier thinking BBRY handsets are going the way of the dodo bird.
    Aug 19 02:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    iMac? Please!

    It's more akin to a Kin phone.

    Poor design, dated internals, not a good ecosystem, general public associates it with being outdated and obsolete.

    In fact, even the old Bolds had a better design than this thing. At least the Bolds fit nicely in your pocket.
    Aug 19 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    @mapodga:

    This phone will be more difficult to hold than even the (sure to be) gigantic Note 4.

    I'll boldly stake my SA credibility here: BBRY will not hit 10m handset sales in FY2014, in fact they will be significantly below that. Blackberry Passport will have as much traction as a wet paper bag.
    Aug 19 01:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: No Killer App, Investors Lose [View article]
    Yes let's continue.

    Moving manufacturing to FoxConn - minimal reduction in risk. There are Minimum Order Quantities (MOQs) that BBRY must fulfill, otherwise Foxconn is going to flip them the bird unless they commit to millions (just as an example, Sony literally committed 10m production on the PS4, while of course AAPL sells multi-millions of iPhones so committing is no sweat to them). This is why I've been pounding the table saying BBRY is a screaming sell as the Passport will be DOA. Heck, the Fire Phone will probably sell more than the Passport.

    BBRYs Intangible Assets - besides the real estate, not worth very much. Their patents are worthless - if they were, someone like GOOG or MSFT would have taken a much harder look at them. What "hoist of other items (sic)" do they have besides real estates? Inventory that nobody wants? Human capital that they laid off/ have fled to their competitors?

    Z3 is currently selling well - no it's not, according to IDC. Xiaomi is also going big into Indonesia, BBRY's sole remaining holdout, and their $170 self-designed phone is going to go right at the throat of the Z3. I hope Johnny C wears brown pants nowadays - he's going to need it over the next few weeks.

    BBRY's phone division will be profitable with only 10m sales - they are on track to do only half that now. IDC figures say they shipped 1.5m phones last quarter. That's units shipped, you'd figure actual sales would be 1.3m tops, given that Blackberry was last hot sometime during the Jurassic period.
    Aug 19 01:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Key Challenges For BlackBerry's Software Business [View article]
    @rmccleary

    "I look forward to you updating us with your predictions in several months - especially the ones you missed badly on. I suspect BBRY will be in that list."

    I missed zero predictions (although I thought AAPL would shrink more than it has).

    Chen is mistaken. If you have a problem? Take it up with IDC. Johnny C is a pumper and cheerleader for his own company, IDC a globally-renown research firm whose numbers are highly respected. I know whose numbers I trust more.

    BBRY got hammered. BBRY shipped only 1.5m this quarter. Next quarter I think they will ship a maximum of 2m but probably below 1.5m, worse than this quarter.
    Aug 15 02:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Key Challenges For BlackBerry's Software Business [View article]
    Won't make a dent.

    Apple/IBM and MSFT will own the Enterprise market by end 2016 (after Windows Phone 9 and the fruits of the Apple/IBM partnership are realized in iOS 9)

    BBRY won't exist in this form by then, I reckon. Sold for pennies on the dollar to the Chinese like Moto, or BK.
    Aug 14 10:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Key Challenges For BlackBerry's Software Business [View article]
    I was RIGHT. I told you longs BBRY would struggle to sell 1-2m phones a quarter.

    The latest IDC figures have them sitting at 1.5m shipments a month, figure 90% of that being sold (some are replacements, seed stock and some sit on shelves) and BBRY sell just 1.3m handsets a q - and that's declining rapidly!

    Massive dilution and possibly bankruptcy looms for BBRY, longs. Get out while you can. All of those unsold phones will light a bonfire on their cash pile.

    As usual, all my predictions for the quarter on marketshare came through, mostly made on the previous BBRY and AAPL articles:
    a) iOS stagnant due to iPhone 6 anticipation
    b) Android massive gains - mainly from white box and lowend Chinese phones (Xiaomi, Lenovo, Asus)
    c) Windows bad
    d) BBRY crushed, Z3 won't make a difference

    PS: For those who said they trust Chen over IDC, are you for real? IDC is the most respected tech research company worldwide. Chen's just a hack, who has a vested interest at that.
    Aug 14 09:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Build A Cheap iPhone... And Why It Should [View article]
    I can't understand the mindset of people who compare Apple to fashion. It's a completely different industry, no matter what Timmy C may want to think by hiring people from the fashion industry to sit in Senior Management.

    Why not compare Apple with.......I don't know, Apple?

    GOOG is doing to Apple what MSFT did to them in the mid-90s. This much is plain to see.
    Aug 13 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Build A Cheap iPhone... And Why It Should [View article]
    "Once the iPhone 6 comes to market, that will free up an enormous supply of used phones to recycle into new phones for BRIC markets."

    Why would BRIC markets want a used phone if it's on par with a new one?
    Apple clone Xiaomi and Oppo are not making big strides in gaining marketshare in the 3rd world for nothing, and Apple is certainly not going to beat them back with 2nd hand iPhone 5s/5S.
    Aug 13 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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