Seeking Alpha

drekon

drekon
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View drekon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Lincoln Electric: An Undervalued Gem [View article]
    ITW? CFX?
    Aug 14 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    Agreed - AAPL dominance over the last 10 years put many of the companies I mentioned out of business. Now that China Mobile is signed, what is the next leg of growth? Cook has ignored all recurring revenue options, including the wallet. Innovation is increasingly software and largely catching up with competitors. The long term story was the iOS eco-system becoming so sticky that switching costs were too much for customers to bare and they would buy an Apple device every 2 years. Well, carriers are changing the model, devices don't need replacement every 2 years and Apple lost 5 years of making the device sticky. NFLX owns video, P owns audio (so much that AAPL paid $34k a subscriber at Beats), Google owns contacts/email, nobody owns wallet, gaming is in flux, MSFT owns documents and MSFT is emerging as a legit threat in device and cloud. Even Blackberry fixed their device. My point is that Apple will not receive $650 ASP in 2 years. How does that affect stock price?
    Jun 5 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    I think you understand that I mean technology hardware and comparing to BA or F is disingenuous at best. You are welcome to compare it to INTC, who's stock has not moved in 10 years - due to its Wintel partner IBM failing to produce innovative hardware. You may also compare it to DELL, HPQ (and Compaq before Hewitt Packard didn't know what else to do), SNE, 1990's AAPL, Nokia, Motorola, BBBY etc. Now, do you have a technology hardware company that you can give as an example?
    Jun 4 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    All the cash flow, dividends, buybacks and R&D cited in the article are based on hardware that is increasingly undifferentiated. If Cook was going to release new hardware (watch, TV, ring) it would be at WWDC. In other words, there are no new products. Yes, there will be a bigger phone (2 years late) that will likely steal additional Android share, but where is the next REAL leg of growth? China Mobile is now a done deal. There will probably be a bigger iPad, but have you noticed the growth trend of tablet sales? All hardware companies die. Cook has failed at creating a moat around the iOS eco-system. How does Apple command $650 per device over the next 2 years? These "new" releases are doing little to keep Apple sticky...
    Jun 3 12:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Apple Buying Beats Is Smart [View article]
    4. Apple/Beats car audio and infotainment
    May 9 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: Buy It Before It Gets Expensive? Too Late [View article]
    Ok, let's hear your facts. How many ShopHouse and Pizzeria will they open per year? What is the average sales for a ShopHouse store? How many new store openings per year (CMG, ShopHouse or Pizzeria) are required to maintain 20% growth? Has management suggested opening more than 200 stores per year? What markets? Is real estate available?
    May 9 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Acquiring A Fad - Not Quality - And That Is Troubling [View article]
    If it's an entry to the car market (ala Harman Kardon), it's brilliant. If not, it's buying a fad.
    May 9 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Red Flags Galore [View article]
    CVLT hit my radar on the blow up and I noticed your prescient article here on SA. I am beginning my work on the name and wondering your thoughts now that it has traded down to a level mentioned in your article.
    Apr 26 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bolivar Devaluation Impacts Corporate Profits [View article]
    Am I wrong in assuming the negatively impacted earnings are the result of F having little or no way to recognize the dollar revenue they put on their books at 4.3 bolivar? Even now that it has been marked to 6.3 bolivar, how will F come close to realizing those dollars when they can convert (if they are lucky) at approximately 70 bolivar in SICAD 2?
    Apr 2 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: An Evergreen Stock You Must Buy [View article]
    If the thesis is new stores to drive growth, I'm wondering why you don't point out that CMG will need to open 225 stores in 2014 and nearly double the current opening rate in 2015 to maintain its 20% growth rate? How many new store do you model?
    Oct 4 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chipotle Growing Enough? [View article]
    How many units need to be opened to sustain its 19.5% growth? Let's assume 5% SSS which is built in many models....

    JA & RT, there are few direct competitors. I would argue PNRA and SBUX in the fast casual space but I'm sure many disagree. I've seen these comps in sell-side research, especially since Jack owns Qdoba - what do you propose?
    Aug 13 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As expected, the eurogroup approves Spain bank's bailout. Spanish Economy Minister Luis De Guindos will explain the details of the MOU to parliament on Monday and it is due to be signed on Tuesday.  However, yields on 10-year government bonds are soaring 11 bps to 7.12%. The bailout may not be enough.
     [View news story]
    I understand Germany wants to extract all the concessions it can from this, but they have simply delayed the inevitable for 2 years and ensured an economic slowdown. Any concessions they are holding out for won't be guaranteed anyway, ala Greece. There are 2 choices - 1) Germany leaves the Euro or 2) Eurobonds. What are we waiting for? Like it or not, Paulson acted quickly and decisively. That is what is needed.
    Jul 20 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday The 13th Bad News Bulls [View article]
    Regarding the study that the S&P would be at 600 without QE, do they mean to imply the S&P wouldn't have $100 eps? Or that the multiple would have contracted to 6? I hope they don't think QE has stimulated the economy. 17 million+ unemployed deserve better.
    Jul 14 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fusion-io (FIO -2.7%) sells off after its presentation at a JPMorgan conference (webcast) fails to impress. Piper's Andrew Nowinski, who issued bullish notes on Fusion-io in February and April, thinks investor concerns about the company's June quarter being back-end loaded due to server OEM product qualifications are taking a toll, but believes this is baked into guidance.  [View news story]
    Clowns, absolute clowns
    May 15 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In the disappointing jobs report, the most important statistic may have been the 63.6% labor participation rate, a 30-year low. Critics of the Obama administration are quick to seize on this as the “real” reason for the falling unemployment rate, but the downward trend has been happening for more than a decade as baby boomers have been retiring.  [View news story]
    Not sure why we are debating Rush here, but I think Obama defenders need to explain dramatic increases in food stamp and disability participation rates. An independent minded person should examine the policy and implications of Obamacations. You also need to explain 10.3% Hispanic, 13% Black and 24.9% Teen unemployment because they are not Baby Boomers. Please explain Milwaukee's 24% inner city unemployment. Please explain the following before apologizing for this disaster of a President:

    "While unemployment among recent college graduates stood at 8.9 percent, the rates were much, much higher among job seekers with less education. Unemployment among those with a recent high school diploma was 22.9 percent, and 31.5 percent of recent high school dropouts were without a job."

    It doesn't take a genius to realize these are baby boomers. That excuse is crap.
    May 5 10:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
181 Comments
366 Likes