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drekon

drekon
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  • Halliburton - These 2 Words Triggered A 42% Drop In EBITDA [View article]
    Not for nothin, but there are some hefty banking fees out there. What would you expect JPM, GS, CSFB and WFC to rate HAL?
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners Or Kinder Morgan Inc.? [View article]
    I'm admittedly new to MLPs so I could be way off base, but capitalizing $850M overhead seems aggressive. I guess it's a way to increase your dividend...
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter says Q1 production rose 66% Y/Y [View news story]
    Great, sell more fore less. How much cash do they have left?
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources: Not All Debt-Laden Energy Companies Are Created Equal [View article]
    Cash balance stood at $53.2. Potential sale of assets that will not likely close until July means that half a year's interest will be paid effectively wiping out the cash. Add preferred dividends and there is already a cash deficit.

    Not sure how the model demonstrates positive discretionary cash flow under any scenario.
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter: Not Your Grandfather's Value Play [View article]
    ~$64M "year end liquidity" appears to be a moot point. With $900M in debt, $46M in preferred dividends and $86M of annual interest payments there had better be major asset sales soon because the $64M is already gone. It appears only 41% of production is hedged in 2015 with nothing beyond that. Stated production costs of $2-2.50 ignores G&A and volumes don't ramp to close the current operating deficit. I don't see anything left but selling all assets it can. Congrats to those that profited from the bounce, take the money and run.
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Am Investing In Low Priced Oil [View article]
    The posted charts are nicely correlated in the rear view mirror. With 20%+ returns since the beginning of the decline in oil, it is safe to say that institutions began re-allocating months ago. Are you anticipating strength in the consumer discretionary stocks to continue and earnings to surpass what is already priced in?
    Jan 15, 2015. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Colfax Still Enjoying The Fruits Of Superior Growth Potential [View article]
    what welding markets do you see recovering? when you refer to marine, do you mean GFH (it's lumped in a paragraph with LECO)? that would be the first time I've heard marine described as strong...
    Sep 12, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lincoln Electric: An Undervalued Gem [View article]
    ITW? CFX?
    Aug 14, 2014. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    Agreed - AAPL dominance over the last 10 years put many of the companies I mentioned out of business. Now that China Mobile is signed, what is the next leg of growth? Cook has ignored all recurring revenue options, including the wallet. Innovation is increasingly software and largely catching up with competitors. The long term story was the iOS eco-system becoming so sticky that switching costs were too much for customers to bare and they would buy an Apple device every 2 years. Well, carriers are changing the model, devices don't need replacement every 2 years and Apple lost 5 years of making the device sticky. NFLX owns video, P owns audio (so much that AAPL paid $34k a subscriber at Beats), Google owns contacts/email, nobody owns wallet, gaming is in flux, MSFT owns documents and MSFT is emerging as a legit threat in device and cloud. Even Blackberry fixed their device. My point is that Apple will not receive $650 ASP in 2 years. How does that affect stock price?
    Jun 5, 2014. 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    I think you understand that I mean technology hardware and comparing to BA or F is disingenuous at best. You are welcome to compare it to INTC, who's stock has not moved in 10 years - due to its Wintel partner IBM failing to produce innovative hardware. You may also compare it to DELL, HPQ (and Compaq before Hewitt Packard didn't know what else to do), SNE, 1990's AAPL, Nokia, Motorola, BBBY etc. Now, do you have a technology hardware company that you can give as an example?
    Jun 4, 2014. 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    All the cash flow, dividends, buybacks and R&D cited in the article are based on hardware that is increasingly undifferentiated. If Cook was going to release new hardware (watch, TV, ring) it would be at WWDC. In other words, there are no new products. Yes, there will be a bigger phone (2 years late) that will likely steal additional Android share, but where is the next REAL leg of growth? China Mobile is now a done deal. There will probably be a bigger iPad, but have you noticed the growth trend of tablet sales? All hardware companies die. Cook has failed at creating a moat around the iOS eco-system. How does Apple command $650 per device over the next 2 years? These "new" releases are doing little to keep Apple sticky...
    Jun 3, 2014. 12:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Apple Buying Beats Is Smart [View article]
    4. Apple/Beats car audio and infotainment
    May 9, 2014. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: Buy It Before It Gets Expensive? Too Late [View article]
    Ok, let's hear your facts. How many ShopHouse and Pizzeria will they open per year? What is the average sales for a ShopHouse store? How many new store openings per year (CMG, ShopHouse or Pizzeria) are required to maintain 20% growth? Has management suggested opening more than 200 stores per year? What markets? Is real estate available?
    May 9, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Acquiring A Fad - Not Quality - And That Is Troubling [View article]
    If it's an entry to the car market (ala Harman Kardon), it's brilliant. If not, it's buying a fad.
    May 9, 2014. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Red Flags Galore [View article]
    CVLT hit my radar on the blow up and I noticed your prescient article here on SA. I am beginning my work on the name and wondering your thoughts now that it has traded down to a level mentioned in your article.
    Apr 26, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
188 Comments
370 Likes