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drekon

drekon
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  • Bolivar Devaluation Impacts Corporate Profits [View article]
    Am I wrong in assuming the negatively impacted earnings are the result of F having little or no way to recognize the dollar revenue they put on their books at 4.3 bolivar? Even now that it has been marked to 6.3 bolivar, how will F come close to realizing those dollars when they can convert (if they are lucky) at approximately 70 bolivar in SICAD 2?
    Apr 2 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: An Evergreen Stock You Must Buy [View article]
    If the thesis is new stores to drive growth, I'm wondering why you don't point out that CMG will need to open 225 stores in 2014 and nearly double the current opening rate in 2015 to maintain its 20% growth rate? How many new store do you model?
    Oct 4 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chipotle Growing Enough? [View article]
    How many units need to be opened to sustain its 19.5% growth? Let's assume 5% SSS which is built in many models....

    JA & RT, there are few direct competitors. I would argue PNRA and SBUX in the fast casual space but I'm sure many disagree. I've seen these comps in sell-side research, especially since Jack owns Qdoba - what do you propose?
    Aug 13 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As expected, the eurogroup approves Spain bank's bailout. Spanish Economy Minister Luis De Guindos will explain the details of the MOU to parliament on Monday and it is due to be signed on Tuesday.  However, yields on 10-year government bonds are soaring 11 bps to 7.12%. The bailout may not be enough.
     [View news story]
    I understand Germany wants to extract all the concessions it can from this, but they have simply delayed the inevitable for 2 years and ensured an economic slowdown. Any concessions they are holding out for won't be guaranteed anyway, ala Greece. There are 2 choices - 1) Germany leaves the Euro or 2) Eurobonds. What are we waiting for? Like it or not, Paulson acted quickly and decisively. That is what is needed.
    Jul 20 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday The 13th Bad News Bulls [View article]
    Regarding the study that the S&P would be at 600 without QE, do they mean to imply the S&P wouldn't have $100 eps? Or that the multiple would have contracted to 6? I hope they don't think QE has stimulated the economy. 17 million+ unemployed deserve better.
    Jul 14 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fusion-io (FIO -2.7%) sells off after its presentation at a JPMorgan conference (webcast) fails to impress. Piper's Andrew Nowinski, who issued bullish notes on Fusion-io in February and April, thinks investor concerns about the company's June quarter being back-end loaded due to server OEM product qualifications are taking a toll, but believes this is baked into guidance.  [View news story]
    Clowns, absolute clowns
    May 15 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In the disappointing jobs report, the most important statistic may have been the 63.6% labor participation rate, a 30-year low. Critics of the Obama administration are quick to seize on this as the “real” reason for the falling unemployment rate, but the downward trend has been happening for more than a decade as baby boomers have been retiring.  [View news story]
    Not sure why we are debating Rush here, but I think Obama defenders need to explain dramatic increases in food stamp and disability participation rates. An independent minded person should examine the policy and implications of Obamacations. You also need to explain 10.3% Hispanic, 13% Black and 24.9% Teen unemployment because they are not Baby Boomers. Please explain Milwaukee's 24% inner city unemployment. Please explain the following before apologizing for this disaster of a President:

    "While unemployment among recent college graduates stood at 8.9 percent, the rates were much, much higher among job seekers with less education. Unemployment among those with a recent high school diploma was 22.9 percent, and 31.5 percent of recent high school dropouts were without a job."

    It doesn't take a genius to realize these are baby boomers. That excuse is crap.
    May 5 10:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Fusion-io's (FIO) FQ3: Though results beat estimates, the company is guiding for flat Q/Q revenue growth, a major deceleration following FQ3's 12% Q/Q increase. In addition, FQ4 operating margin is expected to be 3%-5%, down from FQ3's 7.6%. Deferred revenue rose by $6.5M Q/Q in to $22.5M. FIO -11.7% AH. Falling in sympathy: OCZ -1.2%. STEC -1.8%. (PR)  [View news story]
    Flat Q/Q for Q4 is above the model of $91.8m. This is higher than expected revenue...
    Apr 26 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responding to a question about the dissonance between some individual forecasts for higher rates and the pledge to hold rates near 0% forever, Bernanke says it's consensus that's important  ... and consensus says rates are too stay where they are for a long time.  [View news story]
    and I AM the consensus - Bernanke
    Apr 25 02:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Having already skewered Fed policy by taking it to the next absurd stage, Sheila Bair warns the gang that never saw the housing bubble that they've created a bond bubble. If the market wants to push rates up a bit, she says, the Fed ought to let it. The economy may even benefit as those on the housing sidelines see rates headed north and move into the market.  [View news story]
    I fail to understand how artificially low rates help the housing market with banks that won't lend and 17 million unemployed. It hurts those unemployed by inflating food and fuel, while it destroys the responsible savers' spending ability. This administration is clueless.
    Apr 23 07:43 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting question of the day: Don Bilson asks on Twitter if people aren't buying beds (Earlier: Tempur-Pedic) or furniture (Earlier: Ethan Allen) - how are we supposed to believe they are buying homes?  [View news story]
    Maybe Mom and Dad don't want to replace their beds so they get out of the house! Anyway, Tempur Pedic & Ethan Allen are hardly starter home purchases.
    Apr 20 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron (MU) -2.7% after S&P slashes its credit outlook to negative, and the company prices its $870M convertible note offering, which could be ammo for an Elpida bid. While the interest rates for the notes are low, they sport conversion prices below $10/share, which makes future dilution a strong possibility. Nonetheless, Baird considers Micron's recent selloff a buying opportunity, and predicts the chipmaker will return to profitability this summer.  [View news story]
    "Recent pullback provides buying opportunity"...last time I saw that posted here from Baird it was AFFY at 13 (now 11.32). They are famous for loving stocks and getting run-over by pullbacks.
    Apr 13 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prices at the pump creep higher again, the average price for regular rising to $3.925/gallon as of early this morning. The price is nearly 11% higher Y/Y and at another new record for March. Gasoline ETF: UGA +18.9% YTD.  [View news story]
    Government Motors will soon release their wind powered car
    Mar 30 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While today's economic data "had a less-rosy tint than of late," says MarketBeat, it is helping the Fed achieve its goal of keeping yields down. Those for 10-year Treasurys are -4 pbs to 2.16%, illustrating the Fed’s conundrum: "Any acknowledgement of improvements risks sending yields higher, which would then choke the recovery."  [View news story]
    choke the recovery? really? how does a 10 year rate of 2.5% or even 3% affect anything in this recovery? refinancing? oh, that's right - banks still want 30% equity and appraisers are a joke.

    can we discuss the impact that artificially low rates have had on food and energy costs - the real drags on consumers?
    Mar 29 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR -3.8%) and Starbucks (SBUX -1.9%) head lower after Nielsen estimates Starbucks' K-Cups only claimed 12%-14% market share in the 4 weeks ending March 17. However, Goldman isn't too worried, predicting Starbucks K-Cup sales will rise after the products begin to be offered in company stores this fall. International expansion is expected to drive growth in later years.  [View news story]
    I read that single serve coffee is priced at the equivalent of $50/pound. Am I the only guy that wants more than one cup a day anyway?
    Mar 29 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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