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drekon

drekon
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  • Magnum Hunter: Eureka Hunter Reaches Record Throughput Volumes [View article]
    Can anyone help me determine MHR's actual natural gas production in the Utica and Marcellus? SEC filings and company documents contain so many restated figures that I cannot determine actual production. If anyone knows of an historical reconciliation, I would appreciate it!
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economics Of A Shale Well - Swift Energy [View article]
    If the cost of debt is 20%, I assume the cost of equity is significantly higher. Why discount the well at 10%, rather than WACC, to get the NPV per well? Surely it will change the "economics".
    Jun 11, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter downgraded at Imperial on cash flow challenges [View news story]
    the ceo not only doesn't want a fire sale, but apparently doesn't want to sell anything. undeveloped acreage is just that - undeveloped. slapping "economics" onto POSS reserves is a joke for a company that has no money. in my opinion, people that value E&P using traditional NAV need to exercise some discretion on the individual company it is valuing. among other things, MHR has largely ignored downside commodity risk. how can you apply a 10% discount to POSS assets when it is in terrible shape? i would discount that acreage at a 40% venture capital rate.
    Jun 11, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter downgraded at Imperial on cash flow challenges [View news story]
    It will easily outspend cash raised year to date with debt and preferreds hanging over its head. Being a "premium operator" or holding assets that could benefit an acquirer does not help a company that cannot pay bills. "Economics" discounted at 10% make no sense for the risk of this company, and "economics" ignores costs to run a company. This downgrade is long overdue, but wise.
    Jun 10, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran could add 400K bbl/day of oil shortly after nuclear deal, 2.5M by 2017 [View news story]
    Shortly after what deal? In case XOM hasn't noticed, Iran has already backing out of the "terms" the President was willing to offer. There is no deal and there is likely to be no deal. This story is months old...
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton - These 2 Words Triggered A 42% Drop In EBITDA [View article]
    Not for nothin, but there are some hefty banking fees out there. What would you expect JPM, GS, CSFB and WFC to rate HAL?
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners Or Kinder Morgan Inc.? [View article]
    I'm admittedly new to MLPs so I could be way off base, but capitalizing $850M overhead seems aggressive. I guess it's a way to increase your dividend...
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter says Q1 production rose 66% Y/Y [View news story]
    Great, sell more fore less. How much cash do they have left?
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources: Not All Debt-Laden Energy Companies Are Created Equal [View article]
    Cash balance stood at $53.2. Potential sale of assets that will not likely close until July means that half a year's interest will be paid effectively wiping out the cash. Add preferred dividends and there is already a cash deficit.

    Not sure how the model demonstrates positive discretionary cash flow under any scenario.
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter: Not Your Grandfather's Value Play [View article]
    ~$64M "year end liquidity" appears to be a moot point. With $900M in debt, $46M in preferred dividends and $86M of annual interest payments there had better be major asset sales soon because the $64M is already gone. It appears only 41% of production is hedged in 2015 with nothing beyond that. Stated production costs of $2-2.50 ignores G&A and volumes don't ramp to close the current operating deficit. I don't see anything left but selling all assets it can. Congrats to those that profited from the bounce, take the money and run.
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Am Investing In Low Priced Oil [View article]
    The posted charts are nicely correlated in the rear view mirror. With 20%+ returns since the beginning of the decline in oil, it is safe to say that institutions began re-allocating months ago. Are you anticipating strength in the consumer discretionary stocks to continue and earnings to surpass what is already priced in?
    Jan 15, 2015. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Colfax Still Enjoying The Fruits Of Superior Growth Potential [View article]
    what welding markets do you see recovering? when you refer to marine, do you mean GFH (it's lumped in a paragraph with LECO)? that would be the first time I've heard marine described as strong...
    Sep 12, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lincoln Electric: An Undervalued Gem [View article]
    ITW? CFX?
    Aug 14, 2014. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    Agreed - AAPL dominance over the last 10 years put many of the companies I mentioned out of business. Now that China Mobile is signed, what is the next leg of growth? Cook has ignored all recurring revenue options, including the wallet. Innovation is increasingly software and largely catching up with competitors. The long term story was the iOS eco-system becoming so sticky that switching costs were too much for customers to bare and they would buy an Apple device every 2 years. Well, carriers are changing the model, devices don't need replacement every 2 years and Apple lost 5 years of making the device sticky. NFLX owns video, P owns audio (so much that AAPL paid $34k a subscriber at Beats), Google owns contacts/email, nobody owns wallet, gaming is in flux, MSFT owns documents and MSFT is emerging as a legit threat in device and cloud. Even Blackberry fixed their device. My point is that Apple will not receive $650 ASP in 2 years. How does that affect stock price?
    Jun 5, 2014. 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Apps Will Ensure Healthy Returns For Investors [View article]
    I think you understand that I mean technology hardware and comparing to BA or F is disingenuous at best. You are welcome to compare it to INTC, who's stock has not moved in 10 years - due to its Wintel partner IBM failing to produce innovative hardware. You may also compare it to DELL, HPQ (and Compaq before Hewitt Packard didn't know what else to do), SNE, 1990's AAPL, Nokia, Motorola, BBBY etc. Now, do you have a technology hardware company that you can give as an example?
    Jun 4, 2014. 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
193 Comments
370 Likes