notaspecultor

notaspecultor
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  • LGI Homes: What To Expect In 2016  [View article]
    i am sorry that i forgot to complement you on the excellent job you did in preparing your analysis. these inquiries of mine are not in anyway intended to demean your work effort but only to clarify my own understanding of lgih
    Dec 21, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LGI Homes: What To Expect In 2016  [View article]
    i was not referring to the # of units sold per commuity, but to homes currently built in each community to date,the total # units planned for each one, their prices and their gross margin rate per community. i can't understand how a company can deplete its inventory and have a 29% cancellation rate. there are 10k lots raw or under development which in my opinion will raise costs. the other 6k might be finished but at what cost. as to the remaning 7k i don't the condition but i assume they are under option. if we use the 5k figure i don't think their inventory is sufficient . that is debatable.many companies have gm's about 20. i question how long lgih can maintain gm 27.5 or so and would expect it to fall to a much lower level.simply this all adds up in my opinion to a far lower stock price.

    perhaps someone would provide an idea of the relationship between -take this quarter or next year's quarters or years sales and the cash and debt needed to finance their expansion .it seems without more information i feel there maybe need for more borrowing and or another secondary in addition to the 4.5m convertible.
    Dec 21, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LGI Homes: What To Expect In 2016  [View article]
    please advise why lgih ran out of inventory. -did it built too few homes? did it just have too few lots for its needs?which communities were affected.was it a result of poor planning?
    the cost of lumber is rising sharply Won't that hurt margins?
    you mention there is a shortage of skilled labor labor but don't indicate how much the cost of labor will increase and how this will affect the margins.
    again will margins take a bit as it expands.

    While it is increasing the # of communities the asp is only 186,000 This is the level of the first home buyer which has the most difficulty getting a mortgage.
    how do u see the coming 1/4 increase in the fed rate which is the beginning soon and one of several going forward affecting these buyers getting a mortgage and will these increases limit the # of buyers for its homes?. Will you expect them to hold down sales?
    land is available but it is expensive. Does lgih have enough inventory so it will not need to build homes on new expensive lots over the next 2 years or more .

    in my opinion a smALL CO. LIKE LGIH HAS DISADVANTAGES AS IT EXPANDS INTO OTHER STATES . Finding skilled reliable where it does not have a history of knowing qualified reliable lis difficult it may have to pay a pfremium even for the less qualified since it competing with the large experienced cos.

    i wondered based on your growth Figures what is the current of #lots and the and the # of homes to be built per community ,and how many homes have been built in the past per community and planned for future community as lgih expands into other states.. he skill and reliabilaty of their labor, the quaLITY OF THEIR SUPPLIERSAND GETTING LAND AT A good price is critical to their success .

    i may have missed it ,anyway ,would you break out the the revenues, the earnings and their % of the # OF HOMES BUILT IN Texas AND BY COMMUNITY there AND THEIR % AND THE TOTAL of any other PLANNED COMMUNITY
    what is the average size and total size of communities built in texas.
    .
    Dec 11, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources Completes Mega-Frac  [View article]
    michael:
    would you provide us the break even point with oil at or near its current price of $45 for those companies which you consider the top tier,include 2 or 3 that fit this characterization,
    that is, those with the most productive wells,acreage and the most effecient drilling techniques then the middle tier and lastly the lowest tier .
    this would provide us with a good idea to determine how far these companies must go to cut costs and or how much the price of oil must rise for them to make money.
    Sep 28, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil: Covenant Issues Appear To Be Behind It, But It Remains A Very Speculative Play  [View article]
    good article but i think it would have been far clearer if you had itemized current costs per bbl to show how you arrive at the breakeven point of oil being in the 70's and perhaps compare that to the costs of several other lower cost companies as well.
    Sep 11, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let AutoZone Drive Your Portfolio Higher - $750 Price Target  [View article]
    terrific article.
    the only item i think is missing is why azo's peers trade at much higher pe's. especially orly.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Payback Times Point To A Long Winter In The Bakken  [View article]
    I did not find the article helpful. I would have preferred to see a delineation of the play showing the counties through which it meanders, its length, depth and thickness the oil bearing zones along its length.

    A map with the above information would have been very informative.
    The play zones probably vary greatly depending on the geology as it narrows,widens and the thickness of the oil reservoirs in the play change through it's length.
    With this information we should be able to determine which of Eox's wells are in or near the core plays and which are not. We would have the added benefit of comparing other producers well's prospective production's results.
    Perhaps including the names of the drillers and where most of their wells are located along with eox and some of its peers would have provided a great perspective and a map would provide a terrific delination of those characteristics.

    There could have been added some information about its access to it's transportation rail,truck and pipelines and thier comparative costs to other producers within the core. I could have done without the maps and statistics from ndic.

    The depletion rates of eox's wells now take on more importance as it means it may have to drill more wells and possibly incur more debt to maintain it's cashflow.

    Again it would have also been helpful instead of all the well statistics and maps from the ndic to address some of eox's financials such as ev/debt etc.
    Dec 24, 2014. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long Heartland Payment Systems  [View article]
    you spent LOT OF TIME ON PAST PERFORMNCE. IT WOULLD HAVE VERY HELPFUL IF
    IF YOU Hd provided reasons why the stock has fallen and provided solid reasons to buy it aside from the low price.it would be great to buy low as u indicate and ride it higher into the future but u don't provide any resaons of substance showing why this should happen [getting lucky is not one] and the large short sellers positons are wrong.
    Apr 30, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tripling Your Money: Zhone Triples... What's Next?  [View article]
    i thoght zhone had a properous future especially when the ceo said we should expect $20-$40 mil in additional sales IN 2013 which he has recently stepped away from.

    the company is only growing revenue by 3-4% per year and and revenue from q3 to q4 increased by only $800,000.
    its operational income is a miserly out of $1.4m a decrease from $1.6m in the prior quarter from sales of $32.3 mil..

    this company with a bad quarter or two is as likely to fall to 2.00 before it sees $6.00 again.

    the ceo does not give out much useful information such as units sold, % of sales based on new products vs. legacy products and what their largest customers are buying.

    while it mentions it has 450 customers,YOU CAN ASSUME THAT ITS DEALS ARE LIKELY TO BE MANY CUMULATIVE SMALL DEALS.

    since zhne appears TO BE A RISKY CO. WHICH OFFERS LITTLE INFORMATION ABOUT ITS OPERATIONS OR FOR THAT MATTER THE $ SIZE OF THE deals it closes when it puts out a press releases, i have no idea where the company's revenues and eps are going but the revenues for such a SMALL COMPANY IN THIS SPACE SHOULD growing AT A MUCH HIGHER %.

    ItS compeitor adtran's revenues are far MORE DIVERSE AND IT HAS OPERATING INCOME AT ABOUT 10%.
    AS FAR AS THE MILITARY IS CONCERNED I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF ITS INSTALLATIONS USE SATELLITE AND ARE UNLIKELY TO GO TO THE EXPENSE OF BUILDING A HIGH SPEED CABLE NETWORK IF NONE EXISTED or even to upgrade from cokpper with so many bases closing..
    IN MY OPINION ZHNE IS A SPECULATIVE STOCK.
    IT COULD HIT A HOME RUN BUT THAT IS UP TO EACH PERSON TO DECIDE.
    Feb 19, 2014. 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athenahealth Counting On Product Launches  [View article]
    I don't know why you bothered to write the article as it is very short of any useful information.

    You provide no regarding how you would value the stock since the company then and now t is selling for roughly 180 times eps and its cash flow idoes not inspire confidence.

    There is nothing in it about how the stock is valued or what metrics are being used to validate its price which on its face seems extremely high.
    At least you could have indicated how large its target market is now.

    Perhaps it is a pure momentum stock which will grow its price in tandem with its revenues.

    It would also have been helpful if you provided the size of the future addressable market fromthe new products and how much in new sales you expect will be forth coming from them and wether they are evolutionary or revolutionary.
    There are not even any comments as to the quality of its offerings versus its competition.
    Maybe you don't with any metrics that would explain its price and future price nor do you know any more about athn than the tidbits you provided.

    It seems it is a pure momentum stock like alike a host of other companies and the price will rise so long as its revenue grows.

    This article was not worth the time to read.
    Feb 12, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even At All-Time Highs, Illumina's Q2 Results Support Continued Upside  [View article]
    correction [first sentence]

    ilmn eps growth rate in your analysis has falled from 17% to 14% while the pe has soared from 48 to close to 60.
    Jan 8, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even At All-Time Highs, Illumina's Q2 Results Support Continued Upside  [View article]
    the eps esbetween this stock's pe and the other cos.'s in your analysistimates have fallen to 14% yet the pe has soared to close to 60.

    what is driving this stock's price.

    i wish you had commented on the disparity between this stock's pe and its rivals which are far more reasonable and why it is justified...when will it be fairly valued?
    Jan 8, 2014. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unique Traits In Dental, Veterinary Distributor Markets Support Wide Economic Moats  [View article]
    let's use hsic to see if this market is fairly valued as some fast money aanalysts have postulated.
    hsic is a steady grower as anyone would want. it grows eps from 8-10% every year.

    it's pe ttm stands at 23 and its 2nd q eps grew at 10%.at best it being shouldbe no more than 18 if that

    everything is soaring on ememic news....the new normal or weak news..........fedx reported weak eps lost ground and is back up again....... so all is ok or is it/

    hsic is a good representation for the rest of the market.
    this market is ready for a sharp connection. everyone knows bernake is the cause for the soaring market prices eventhough his bond buying has done little to stimulate a moribund economy........the rest of the world is in dire straiats yet we soar higher on hot air.so why are markets soaring.............it is housing.......no then what..............hype and more hype
    this market has been overdue for a correction and it is going to be sharp..........oil sits at 105 for no justified reason

    when the fast money gets out it wil be done slowly and then quickly and as always the last to know and the ones to pay the piper we be the average guy and his nest egg.

    my advice is tighten your stops........
    Aug 6, 2013. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of The Good News In Housing With These 3 Stocks  [View article]
    Re Kipitall>Trex>the good news in housing

    Please address the fact that according to yahoo finance TREX'S EPS FOR FY 2014 WILL BY
    -16.%% of more.

    How will this affect its stock price and how does a -16 1/2 % reduction, 2.98 to 2.46 in eps, play into Trex being a apart of the good news in housing
    .Do you expect trex will continue to soar or will it remain at 48 , so or is it more likely to fall substantially.

    Please provide a clarification..
    thanks
    Aug 4, 2013. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Doubling, Zhone Offers Upside To $8-10 In 12-18 Months  [View article]
    IT appears i was mistaken with respect to testing as i did not know the following..

    According to a spokeman for one of Zhones
    competitors, Eci, alcatel, ZHONE among others "have already submitted their products "for testing and or deployment" BY THE MAJOR TELCOS IN Europe"
    This is huge news
    One equipment company says it has already deployed VDSL2

    Deutch Telecom and begacom state they have have already deployed vdsl2 and wolrd wide deployment seems in the cards.t.

    Zhone has already deployed vdsl2 to some of its customers including Northwest Michigan University and others.. This is no mean feat but a reaaly nice win.and a testament to the quality and performance of its equipment.
    IPI'S LIST OF THE CREDENTIALS AND EXPERIENCE OF THE PRINCIPLES OF ZHONE'S MANAGEMENT WAS ON THE MONEY.
    I took the time to go to their webpage and look at the breath of their offerings which are impressive.and then went back and looked at Paradynes products and was pleasantly surprised.

    Vsdl2 is estimated to provide100 + mbs and so it is competitive with cable cos.

    The market opporturnity for Zhone maybe under stated when we consider the number of people in the developing econmies in asia and the middle the sales potential for Zhone and the other equipment manufacturers seem staggering.
    The market for VDSL 2, he indicated , is heating up among the telcos and in his opinion the press is under reporting this fact.
    IPI show cased its advantages cost wise very nicely.
    After focusing on Zhones expersience with all forms of DSL the integration probably provides minor problems to their enigeneers considering their experience and focus in this specific area for so long a time.
    I think IPI highlighted their years experience in this field to obviate any issue.
    .Since the united arab emerites's two telcos are long term customers of Zhones, and since it can offer vdsl2 and fiberlan in present time , this maybe a game changer for them with th UAE and its business in the mideast and africa.

    With over 400 million people with copper lines, it is no wonder the Telcos are anxious to deploy Vdls2 as the money and profits to be made seem huge.

    He mentions two presumptive targets in the USA" being AT+T and Centurytel " which he says have an installed base of copper connections and VDLS2 equipment manufacturers should provide them with the speeds they need to to compete against the cable companies and .Verizon etc.

    It would have saved me time and effort to have been able to provide this information prior to my prior posts ibut there is so much information presenting itself that getting specific relevant information is a very arduous task.

    I have put ths altogether myself..
    Jul 31, 2013. 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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