Seeking Alpha

notaspecultor

notaspecultor
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View notaspecultor's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Tripling Your Money: Zhone Triples... What's Next? [View article]
    i thoght zhone had a properous future especially when the ceo said we should expect $20-$40 mil in additional sales IN 2013 which he has recently stepped away from.

    the company is only growing revenue by 3-4% per year and and revenue from q3 to q4 increased by only $800,000.
    its operational income is a miserly out of $1.4m a decrease from $1.6m in the prior quarter from sales of $32.3 mil..

    this company with a bad quarter or two is as likely to fall to 2.00 before it sees $6.00 again.

    the ceo does not give out much useful information such as units sold, % of sales based on new products vs. legacy products and what their largest customers are buying.

    while it mentions it has 450 customers,YOU CAN ASSUME THAT ITS DEALS ARE LIKELY TO BE MANY CUMULATIVE SMALL DEALS.

    since zhne appears TO BE A RISKY CO. WHICH OFFERS LITTLE INFORMATION ABOUT ITS OPERATIONS OR FOR THAT MATTER THE $ SIZE OF THE deals it closes when it puts out a press releases, i have no idea where the company's revenues and eps are going but the revenues for such a SMALL COMPANY IN THIS SPACE SHOULD growing AT A MUCH HIGHER %.

    ItS compeitor adtran's revenues are far MORE DIVERSE AND IT HAS OPERATING INCOME AT ABOUT 10%.
    AS FAR AS THE MILITARY IS CONCERNED I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF ITS INSTALLATIONS USE SATELLITE AND ARE UNLIKELY TO GO TO THE EXPENSE OF BUILDING A HIGH SPEED CABLE NETWORK IF NONE EXISTED or even to upgrade from cokpper with so many bases closing..
    IN MY OPINION ZHNE IS A SPECULATIVE STOCK.
    IT COULD HIT A HOME RUN BUT THAT IS UP TO EACH PERSON TO DECIDE.
    Feb 19 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athenahealth Counting On Product Launches [View article]
    I don't know why you bothered to write the article as it is very short of any useful information.

    You provide no regarding how you would value the stock since the company then and now t is selling for roughly 180 times eps and its cash flow idoes not inspire confidence.

    There is nothing in it about how the stock is valued or what metrics are being used to validate its price which on its face seems extremely high.
    At least you could have indicated how large its target market is now.

    Perhaps it is a pure momentum stock which will grow its price in tandem with its revenues.

    It would also have been helpful if you provided the size of the future addressable market fromthe new products and how much in new sales you expect will be forth coming from them and wether they are evolutionary or revolutionary.
    There are not even any comments as to the quality of its offerings versus its competition.
    Maybe you don't with any metrics that would explain its price and future price nor do you know any more about athn than the tidbits you provided.

    It seems it is a pure momentum stock like alike a host of other companies and the price will rise so long as its revenue grows.

    This article was not worth the time to read.
    Feb 12 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even At All-Time Highs, Illumina's Q2 Results Support Continued Upside [View article]
    correction [first sentence]

    ilmn eps growth rate in your analysis has falled from 17% to 14% while the pe has soared from 48 to close to 60.
    Jan 8 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even At All-Time Highs, Illumina's Q2 Results Support Continued Upside [View article]
    the eps esbetween this stock's pe and the other cos.'s in your analysistimates have fallen to 14% yet the pe has soared to close to 60.

    what is driving this stock's price.

    i wish you had commented on the disparity between this stock's pe and its rivals which are far more reasonable and why it is justified...when will it be fairly valued?
    Jan 8 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unique Traits In Dental, Veterinary Distributor Markets Support Wide Economic Moats [View article]
    let's use hsic to see if this market is fairly valued as some fast money aanalysts have postulated.
    hsic is a steady grower as anyone would want. it grows eps from 8-10% every year.

    it's pe ttm stands at 23 and its 2nd q eps grew at 10%.at best it being shouldbe no more than 18 if that

    everything is soaring on ememic news....the new normal or weak news..........fedx reported weak eps lost ground and is back up again....... so all is ok or is it/

    hsic is a good representation for the rest of the market.
    this market is ready for a sharp connection. everyone knows bernake is the cause for the soaring market prices eventhough his bond buying has done little to stimulate a moribund economy........the rest of the world is in dire straiats yet we soar higher on hot air.so why are markets soaring.............it is housing.......no then what..............hype and more hype
    this market has been overdue for a correction and it is going to be sharp..........oil sits at 105 for no justified reason

    when the fast money gets out it wil be done slowly and then quickly and as always the last to know and the ones to pay the piper we be the average guy and his nest egg.

    my advice is tighten your stops........
    Aug 6 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of The Good News In Housing With These 3 Stocks [View article]
    Re Kipitall>Trex>the good news in housing

    Please address the fact that according to yahoo finance TREX'S EPS FOR FY 2014 WILL BY
    -16.%% of more.

    How will this affect its stock price and how does a -16 1/2 % reduction, 2.98 to 2.46 in eps, play into Trex being a apart of the good news in housing
    .Do you expect trex will continue to soar or will it remain at 48 , so or is it more likely to fall substantially.

    Please provide a clarification..
    thanks
    Aug 4 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Doubling, Zhone Offers Upside To $8-10 In 12-18 Months [View article]
    IT appears i was mistaken with respect to testing as i did not know the following..

    According to a spokeman for one of Zhones
    competitors, Eci, alcatel, ZHONE among others "have already submitted their products "for testing and or deployment" BY THE MAJOR TELCOS IN Europe"
    This is huge news
    One equipment company says it has already deployed VDSL2

    Deutch Telecom and begacom state they have have already deployed vdsl2 and wolrd wide deployment seems in the cards.t.

    Zhone has already deployed vdsl2 to some of its customers including Northwest Michigan University and others.. This is no mean feat but a reaaly nice win.and a testament to the quality and performance of its equipment.
    IPI'S LIST OF THE CREDENTIALS AND EXPERIENCE OF THE PRINCIPLES OF ZHONE'S MANAGEMENT WAS ON THE MONEY.
    I took the time to go to their webpage and look at the breath of their offerings which are impressive.and then went back and looked at Paradynes products and was pleasantly surprised.

    Vsdl2 is estimated to provide100 + mbs and so it is competitive with cable cos.

    The market opporturnity for Zhone maybe under stated when we consider the number of people in the developing econmies in asia and the middle the sales potential for Zhone and the other equipment manufacturers seem staggering.
    The market for VDSL 2, he indicated , is heating up among the telcos and in his opinion the press is under reporting this fact.
    IPI show cased its advantages cost wise very nicely.
    After focusing on Zhones expersience with all forms of DSL the integration probably provides minor problems to their enigeneers considering their experience and focus in this specific area for so long a time.
    I think IPI highlighted their years experience in this field to obviate any issue.
    .Since the united arab emerites's two telcos are long term customers of Zhones, and since it can offer vdsl2 and fiberlan in present time , this maybe a game changer for them with th UAE and its business in the mideast and africa.

    With over 400 million people with copper lines, it is no wonder the Telcos are anxious to deploy Vdls2 as the money and profits to be made seem huge.

    He mentions two presumptive targets in the USA" being AT+T and Centurytel " which he says have an installed base of copper connections and VDLS2 equipment manufacturers should provide them with the speeds they need to to compete against the cable companies and .Verizon etc.

    It would have saved me time and effort to have been able to provide this information prior to my prior posts ibut there is so much information presenting itself that getting specific relevant information is a very arduous task.

    I have put ths altogether myself..
    Jul 31 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Doubling, Zhone Offers Upside To $8-10 In 12-18 Months [View article]
    zhone has a long history and through the paradyne acquisition enhanced that history in dsl and subsequent advancements in its technology.
    I used the example of stec and that was misplaced.

    LIPI'S 30% margins maybe reasonable when zhone isells directly to customers i.e. universities etc and not through an isps which would require low prices.
    While alcatel's products must undergo rigorous testing, it is a $18b company whose equipment is going into very complicated systems both in hardware and software .Zhone doe not face that challenge. The customers IPI mentioned most likely purchase maintenance contracts as do ,I believe most lans /vpns and don't need sophisticated tech it staffs. I spoke to a person at a major university which has a vpn who told me that equipment problems are serviced by their equipment seller on under a service contract.
    I used stec as an example of an untested product however its products were revolutionary and as I said zhone/paradyne has a long history in dsl and upgrades to now vdsl 2. This is an evolutionary processs so that comparison is not applicable.

    The $20-$40m sales opporturnity is not unreasonable since I have learned that there are some 400m subscribers still using copper which is used as part of vdsl 2 .
    The 73 days outstanding maybe in order simply because of the nature of the business and how the contracts are written.
    this is my take anyone is free to agree or disagree.

    .
    Jul 31 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Doubling, Zhone Offers Upside To $8-10 In 12-18 Months [View article]
    in own shares of zhone..all i am trying to do is understand the company and its prospects to make an informed decision about its prospects
    Jul 30 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Doubling, Zhone Offers Upside To $8-10 In 12-18 Months [View article]
    TO ICI
    Your article was informative however i don't yet share your great enthusiam for zhone.
    i read the transcript and ipi's remarks several times.my coments on margins go to costs....which ipi seems to have a great handle on since you came up with the 30-40% margins...

    as an aside i recall stec actually selling $40 m in product but what we did not know was when it was tested it was of very poor quality that is why i asked if any quality isp has tested zhones new products..

    please let me know how you arrive at a 40% margin.........rev - cos - sgna - r and d apportioned to the new products is all i need. i asked a posted to produce a quarterly statement to support his .60 est. but have yet t hear

    it seems ipi has assigned a 30%/405 net margin to the 20m and i am looking for your computation to support it.is this based on the contracts signed......is zhone by passing isps and selling directly to these customers....

    are the $20 m in new sales firm as orders?? or just an opporturnity..this is critical ??

    cisco'smargins are 20% and its offerings are very diverse and it and a host of other companies have been selling fiber lan and dsl through vdsl2 for quite a long time. at far lower margins....the industry at about 7%....

    .again,..i asked if zhones products fiberlan/vdsl have been vetted by isps like alcatels, lucent, and the other competitors...why?
    i recall stec sold a lot of product and when it was tested it was a failure but few knew....this information is generally made available in conference calls as it is so important..

    ipi did not mention the est. revenue from the contracted verticals etc or their size..ipi has exceptional insight into zhiones business so my questions are simple for ipi to answer...the answers would be very hepful


    all these verticals you mention are they buying the equipment and maintaing the resultant network themselves AS VPNS/LANS? Most small to medium Verticals rely on the isp to BUY, INSTALL AND Maintain their networks as the costs TO DO IT THEMSELVES IS Prohibitive...and when problem arise small or serious they simply call the isp help desk to get a quick resolution...
    since you know these contracts so well, has zhne decided to by pass the isp's and find customers to sell directly to as with these vetricals you mention..i presume they have the support staff which is surprising.........it would a bit dangerous [but you will know better] for most hospitals to own, install and maintain their own lans unless they are very large and even then downtime is critical and relying on their own staff technicians seems risky..

    Is ..the new revenue something we CAN TREAT AS GOOD AS ORDERS OR AGAIN ARE THESE SALES TO VIEWED AS A POTENTIAL OPPORTURNITY??

    Fanally,Most ceo's would be elated to announce they are looking at enormous increasing sales with enormous increase in margins even several quarters out [instead of focusing on slight increases in margins as the ceo discussed until he appeared to make an off handed reference on sales opporturnity..with a huge increase in margins..........why didn't he come out and say zhones sales will raise margins by 30-40% as ici has stated.

    I HOPE ALL THE ENTHUSIASM ICI CREATED IS WARRANTED BUT MY QUESTIONS WHEN ANSWERED WILL CLEAR AWAY MY RESERVATIONS .as always everyone has their own perspective and are certainly welcome to it
    Jul 30 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Doubling, Zhone Offers Upside To $8-10 In 12-18 Months [View article]
    the ceo was asked "what is the size of your opporturnity.'".......his reasonse was $20m-$40m.........that is not a firm statement that zhone is going to earn $20m-40m in new sales.........there is alot of extrapolating going on..........now if he said we are going to increase our sales by at least $20m that is a different story..........but how does 97% flow to the bottom line.....aside from 3 %commissionshow about costs to make,sell, research, and install product..........nice job if you can do it..........ipi seems to indicate a 30% profit margin the ceo 97%.........i read it as a potential market opporturnity...
    Jul 30 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Doubling, Zhone Offers Upside To $8-10 In 12-18 Months [View article]
    why don't you break out revenue etc. by quarter. i have no idea where you got your op.m of 11%.

    it would be very helful if you broke out the figures separately for the extra 20m in new sales and its cost and profit and quarter by quarter. it would be very clear and easy to follow and since you have the figures it should only take a few minutes and would be very helpful.

    Is that 20m sales figure an actual firm estimate of just a relative comparison based on the addressable market and zhone's mkt cap or other factor..I don'tthink the ceo was clear about this.

    it odd that the ceo was focusing on margins and mentioned a 20-40% increase in sales as a seeming after thought and with such huge eps falling to the bottom line.

    Days outstanding at 73 or so may not be a problem but 60 days is the norm.It may not have any bearing on the ability of the buyers to pay for the products received on credit.

    how does 97% of 20m less 3% all flow to the bottom line. how much sales will be negated by closing legacy products?

    these customers that are signed up namely hotel chains and a business enterprise.......how large are they.....are we looking at local area networks without any isp except outside the lan to access tje nonpropritary wider internet
    will these entities then manage thier own networks and address minor and major problems. this seems as a large expense for small businesses though what size enterprise/chain is the issue.
    .
    Have zhones products i.e fiberlan and vdsl2 have been tested and approved by leading or tier 2 or 3 isps.These run vigorous compatibility , reliability and quality [roi] testing

    Which companies provide the chipsets and does zhone use contract manufacturers tpo make their products or a substantial amount of each product.. have these costs been compiled and factored into its new products to determine their adjusted earnings projerctions.

    This raises again the issue of how 97% of new revenues fall directly to the bottom line.

    The two telcos in the uae's [the united emerates] have grown revenues from about $8 some 5 years ago to over $20b and its dsl,vdsl2 etc. and fiber lan equipment providers are very entrenced.Yet zhones market share with them has fallen and its revenues have been made little headway.
    What would motivate the two telcos to use zhone new equipment [i presume it would first undergo rigorous testing by them ] to mix equipment which despite testing could view cause unforseen consequences .

    Lastly, by breaking out quarterly figures we can better understand your posited .60 eps.

    thanks for your attention
    Jul 29 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot Oil & Gas: 'Quiet' Press Release Conceals Catalysts [View article]
    what did i miss.
    it seems the 5 wells in marmaton will use up their total eurs' within a year >800 av. boe/d per well or 288,000 per year vs eur per well of 230,000???

    this article would have been better if you had tied all of it together into income and cash flow estimates
    Jul 25 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot's CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    box,dean,bgs,dfs,ma,v,...
    Jun 11 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    the article mentioned four or five industries where these printers can be used.what products have these industries produced?
    iif these printers are so great some engineers or whomever should provide a list of products , say 20 for starters, that are in the market place and the total revenue and profit that sales are producing.

    all we hear is that this and that industry can use them but i wonder how many are used for more than giving a designer an idea of what a car might look and certainly they are not building auto parts for production.let's take the simple case someone mentioned of replacing a handle on a fridge. first you have to match the color and the material[ how do u determine that? call ge>customer servive} an if u can do that than you have to get the same luster. it is cheaper just to buy the part.

    but before you even start u have to know what the broklen part is made of to duplicate it. how how the paint........how do you match the color.? it would seem to produce one part yopui may need many printers ex. one for paint , another for the plastic, another for any metal and then you have to have molds to melt and mix. it is getting ludicrous.

    a far as making metal parts, how do you determine what the material, the type of metal is, where do you get the raw material and then how do you blend them.

    the other issues are costs, production runs, different print heads must be needed for each type of material and these likely to clog quickly.. the metal has to be placed in vat than poured into another and then into the printer.how long will it take to build a car door, paint it etc.. by the time it finijshes, 100 doors or more will have been proced if not 10 times the one coming from the printer.

    from what i have read these printers assuming they can make a part are extremely slow.

    maybe they can be used to produce a sample but to suggest that they can build all the parts for a car or a stove or anything consisting of muti materials and then place the items in a production line is seems like super hype.

    i have seen some nice plastic designs with the notation expect to produce .at a far greater price than you can buy it for.

    i wonder also how these printers get programed to to produce something. must you also become a code programmer??

    it is time that we talk about how useful these printers are today and what products are being produced and by whom and the total revenue each of the the products have produced along with the cost savings as well as how many items each printer has produced and how these fit into the production line and were they producing at a rate greater or less than normal production methods............lets get to specifics.
    Feb 26 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
30 Comments
3 Likes