FloridaBoy2

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

Thanks for the article.

Mark Anthony wrote:

"But the bottom line is there is fundamental reasons that the commodities market attracted so many speculators. At the end of day, speculators who play with paper is merely gambling against each other. Only investors who hoard the PHYSICAL commodities, the quantity of which is limited, stands to gain in the long run."

I watch the price of gasoline move with the market. The paper players run the price up or down and we pay for it at the pump.
The price at the pump does not reflect supply & demand it is the result of the speculation. What am I missing?

Why Apple Is Worth $80

"Disclosure: We have no positions in AAPL, but regard it highly at present."

Thanks for your honesty.


On Oct 26 01:22 PM Peter F. Way, CFA wrote:

> What a perfect example of the CRAP being taught to students about
> investments and investing!
>
> Since investing is humankind's second most serious GAME, next to
> war, better know the valuation model I call "Play the players." Some
> say no other is really needed.
>
> That model seeks out the most experienced, knowledgeable and best
> informed, active, at-risk, and highly-motivated market participants,
> and finds out what they are doing with their own money.
>
> It recognizes that even these players cannot realistically see what
> is likely to happen to an equity-based investment beyond the next
> 6 months. It also recognizes that two things are being invested,
> capital and TIME.
>
> Capital, when lost, is hard to recoup, but possible. Time is impossible.
> Be even more careful about how time is invested.
>
> Our best candidates for the players to study are the big bulge-bracket
> brokers' (seekingalpha.com/symb... block desk market-makers
> and their insurance providers, the proprietary traders of the same
> community.
>
> We daily analyze 2,000 equities to see what the BBBBs are charging
> and paying for insurance to protect the position exposures they must
> take in order to compete for the business that pays their 7-8 figure
> salaries and bonuses.
>
> It tells what are the price extremes of each issue they need to be
> concerned about, both higher and lower. Then we keep book on how
> right they have been over the following 3 months.
>
> FYI, their Friday-close look at AAPL is a price range of $190 to
> $207, or an upside of +11.3% and a downside of -6.8%. In 1132 recent
> past daily forecasts 288 have had similar reward and risk proportions.
>
>
> From those, AAPL's daily closing price over the next 3 months has
> been higher 76% of the time by an average of +16.8% and lower by
> an average of -7.3%, for an odds-weighted average of +9.9%.
>
> AAPL's worst single-day exposure in the 3 months after such a forecast
> averaged -13%, while its best experience was typically +30%. The
> stock ranks on a reward-to-risk scale better than 94% of our population,
>
>
> Making +9.9% in 30 market days (compoundable 8+ times in a 252-day
> year) is an annual rate of +121%. Good, but more than 100 other stocks
> or ETFs offer better at the date.
>
> Disclosure: We have no positions in AAPL, but regard it highly at
> present.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

"Steve's role has been to enable Ive's work, to champion it within the company. Now that he has been firmly established, Ive is able to drive the same kind of quality and innovation without Steve's oversight."

A successful company this large does not depend on one man. BTW, this is not Apple computer any more. It is now a very different company.


On Oct 26 09:56 AM GrahamJ wrote:

> Nice analysis. It appears that by most valuation methods, AAPL is
> indeed overvalued, and certainly isn't worth the target values suggested
> by Cramer and others.
>
> However what your analysis overlooks is the talent of the AAPL team.
> Steve Jobs is but one leader in the company - certainly the most
> important one but not the only one. Jonathan Ive - SVP for Design
> at Apple - is responsible for the design of almost every product
> that has driven the company's success: the various versions of the
> iMac, the iPod, the iPhone. Steve's role has been to enable Ive's
> work, to champion it within the company. Now that he has been firmly
> established, Ive is able to drive the same kind of quality and innovation
> without Steve's oversight.
>
> I believe this talent dimension makes any analysis of Apple's future
> problematic. Having a terminal growth rate becomes a complete guess.
> Who knows what new products the innovative team at Apple will come
> up with and to what extent will those products drive financial performance.
> Given the track record of Mr. Ive et al, it is difficult to imagine
> that they will not create another wildly successful product in the
> next 20 years.
>
> The Cramers of the world with their astronomical price estimates
> may appear irrational, but they are betting on Apple's talent. I'm
> not long on AAPL, but I can certainly appreciate their exuberance.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

It is a market of stocks not a stock market. Always keep your eyes wide open. I would not bet against AAPL long term.


On Oct 26 08:22 AM LaChic wrote:

> The author has excellent points, you guys are assuming the market
> just going to keep going higher and higher, lol...folks, have you
> not learned anything yet?

Why Apple Is Worth $80

BUT: in the integrated PC-PDA-cell-music market, AAPL has NO competition

Yes, and that is where the future is and AAPL will be leading the way...add video too.

Thanks for the article...but I would not short AAPL.


On Oct 25 04:25 PM brent lane wrote:

> Technical analysis can go hang - this is why AAPL is still a Value
> Stock:
> In the PC market, AAPL has serious competition.
> In the OS market, AAPL has serious competition.
> In the PDA market, AAPL has serious competition.
> In the cellular market, AAPL has very serious competition.
> In the portable music market, AAPL has some competition.
> BUT: in the integrated PC-PDA-cell-music market, AAPL has NO competition
> - a situation that will remain for years. Can you say "market leader"?
> I knew you could.....

John Meriwether Is Back - Risk Must Be Too

Thanks for the article.

If you have enough money and friends in the right places.....

There were about a dozen Kingpins that controlled and collapsed the entire system the last go round.

We're Living Through the Best of Times

Thanks for the article. Today is no different that the 70's or 80's. We are still slaves to, or worship, a now defunct economic theory. We have a sticky unpopular war that no one cares about any more.

I'm your age and see plenty of opportunity. The world is changing...not ending.

Why the Home Buyer Tax Credit Is a Bad Idea

Thanks for the article but you are way off base. The tax credit is an incentive to buy and absorb inventory. It must be paid back. I'm sure
the *realtors* are fully explaining this. A 30 year loan @ 5%
is going to look like a smart move in 5 years.

www.irs.ustreas.gov/ne...

I am in SW Florida and it is now cheaper to buy than to rent. Depending on the market, now is a good time to buy. Do your due dilligence. If a realtor starts making future price predictions file a complaint. Do not close until the contract is reviewed by a real estate attorney. If it is a newer home, have a home inspection done by a party you choose. The homes built by the largest builders are generally poorly/cheaply built. Make sure there is no Chinese drywall.

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

Agreed. This is a doom and gloom article for paranoid gold freaks.


On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:

> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Wire heads are not the target market. I don't think this is about the OS market. It is much bigger than that.

Techtrader has good points...clean the rose colored glasses once in a while and don't get intoxicated with AAPL. It's just a stock. Stay 'eyes wide open'.


On Oct 24 02:03 PM billybubb wrote:

> A friend of mine has been using Windows 7 for several months now.
> He got an early version from the tech job that he has. He is a long
> time LInux user (and sometimes Mac) and one of the harshest critics
> of MS but he has nothing but praise for Windows 7. He showed some
> of its features to me and I must say...wow.
> MS doesn't have to build PC's and Apple does. Wouldn't that cut into
> profit margins leaving the better margins to MS?

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

We are on the verge of a new era in computing/communications and WiFi is the future. Oracle did not buy Sun for amusement. Google has the Wave. Apple is shipping a product in by air...what's with that? i-Phone apps are outselling McDonald's burgers and the margins are better. There will be more than one player but Apple will have a nice slice of the pie. Yes, the stock appears to be overvalued but appearances can be deceiving. I am long and keep raising the stop.

Can Apple Be a $300 Stock?

The only reason I will get Windows 7 is because Vista is so awful...
but I am going to wait until the bugs are at least 'known'.


On Oct 23 10:35 AM Tom B wrote:

> "plus the rave reviews that Windows 7 is getting may reduce that
> $300 target." Vista got rave reviews, too. You think MSFT wouldn't
> punish journalists who give them honest reviews?
>
> On Oct 23 09:21 AM long_on_oil wrote:

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

I don't know about the $500 price target but *I* would not bet against
Apple. There is a lot going on under the hood. K-Mart did not think WalMart was a threat either. I am not Dr.Teknicle but there will be big changes in this arena in the next few years.

Apple: Set to Double Again

Thanks for the article. Regardless of the accounting change AAPL is in the right space. Also, there is a rumor that a tablet PC is in the works. Could the valuation get quite lofty? We know the answer to that...just how high I don't know. Just keep raising the stop price.

Technology Names in the 52-Week-High Club, But Is This the End of the Rally?

Thanks for the article. I'm long AAPL but am raisng the stop...but I don't think it is necessary. :-)