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The Economic Fractalist

The Economic Fractalist
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  • The 23 May 2012 Intermediate Wilshire Low ...... [View instapost]

    US ten year and thirty year interest rates will be at 150 year lows on 23 May 2012.
    May 20, 2012. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 23 May 2012 Intermediate Wilshire Low ...... [View instapost]
    US ten year and thirty year interest rates will be at 150 year lows on 23 May 2012.
    May 20, 2012. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Wilshire 11 October 2007 Secondary High: The Patterned Global Macroeconomic System [View instapost]

    For a graph:
    May 5, 2012. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Wilshire 11 October 2007 Secondary High: The Patterned Global Macroeconomic System [View instapost]
    27 March 2012, the third day of the 8 day third fractal was the 11 October 2007 valuation high.

    That is: 4/10/3 of 8/6 days.
    May 1, 2012. 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity And Commodity Collapse: The 28/70/56/41 Of 42-45 Week Wilshire Fractal Series X/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x [View instapost]
    The final DAX/Wilshire 27 to 30 April 2012 lower high: perfect fractal series

    The third fractal of the Wilshire 19 December 2011 18/37/37-38 day fractal series was - to its final lower high 27 or 30 April was composed of two demonstrative Lammert fractals:

    4/10/8/6 days :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x and
    3/8/5 of 5-6 days :: x/2.5x/2x
    Apr 30, 2012. 05:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUPHORISTS: Expect The Unexpected: The Early April 2012 Commodity And Composite Equity Crash [View instapost]
    The 29 March 2012 Crash Decay Fractal: 3/4 of 8/8 days

    The Patterned Behavior of the US and Global Macroeconomy:

    The Great April 2012 Equity and Commodity Crash:

    From March 2003; the Wilshire has completed a 20/50/40 month fractal series.

    The last 40 months since March 2009 while a sharp third fractal valuation rise, did not eclipse the 11 October 2007 high predicted by saturation macroeconomics.

    For speculators and hedgers only the delta matters, up or down. If fact the sharper up or down the bigger time dependent gains.

    In the US while the Wilshire represents only 15 trillion of the debt-money-asset system’s 190 trillions of value, its time dependent patterned behavior is the window into the integrative self assembly optimal valuation behavior of the debt-money-asset macroeconomic system.

    This patterned behavior of the equity class elevates macroeconomics to a science.

    Of the the US debt-money-asset system’s 52 trillion of debt, a good percentage will undergo default. A greater percentage of Euro debt will under default. The net effect of this default will lower total system wealth and the valuation of all assets except paradoxically electronic US hegemony paper money and US federal debt whose valuations will increase as purchasing power increases relative to other asset class declining valuations.

    A great equity crash will occur over the next 2-3 weeks in April 2012.

    It will be accompanied by a commodity crash with the exception of:

    US debt instruments whose values will rapidly rise will with US interest rates falling to 150 year historical lows.
    Apr 8, 2012. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUPHORISTS: Expect The Unexpected: The Early April 2012 Commodity And Composite Equity Crash [View instapost]
    Reuters 3 April: 2012:

    " S&P 500 falls from four year highs, thanks to Fed


    Stocks fell on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 retreating from four-year highs after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was less inclined to provide more economic stimulus. "

    Reuters whose recent euphoric news has been designed to suck dollars into the saturated peak equity market while selling and accumulating shorts now begins its programmed 'sell' news.

    Up or down the financial industry controlled news is used to maximize the process of separating the small speculators from their money.

    Money will now flow into bonds driving US interests to historical 150 year lows. While the Fed may be able to sell some of their debt to the sponsors of Reuters, a QE 3 equivalent will occur within 3 months.
    Apr 4, 2012. 03:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At The Top; The FI Hawkers Encourage... Reuters "Wall Street Slips On China, But Retailers Offset Losses" Reuters [View instapost]
    28/70/56/36 of 42 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x
    Mar 20, 2012. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 19 March 20 March 2012 : The Greatest Equity Collapse Of The Last Millennium [View instapost]
    A footnote:

    Before the the nonlinear crash....

    The 27 June 2011 x/2.5x/2.5x equity peak valuation fractal pathway

    Equities are the money system's highly rule-advantaged speculative vehicle.
    System reflexic valuation blow-offs can be expected in rule advantaged vehicle.

    The 27 June 2011 to 16 March 2012
    Reflexic 31/77/77-78 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x Fractal

    The final 25 Nov 2011to 16 March 2012
    77-78 day third (sub)fractal sequence

    first fractal 17 days :: 3/8/8 days y/2.5y/2.5y

    second fractal 41 days

    composed of two subfractals A and B :: x/2.5x
    subfractal A 12 days : 3/7/4 days
    subfractal B 30 days

    third fractal 21 days
    composed of a 4/10/9 of 9 to 10 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal
    Mar 17, 2012. 06:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 24 February 2012 And 11 October 2007 : The Wilshire's Identical X/2.5x/2x Reflexic Peak Fractal Patterns And Valuation Days? [View instapost]
    24 February 2012: the depletion of the equity buying speculator pool. x/2.5x/2x :: 31/77/62 of 62 days

    At approximately 1155 EST on 24 February 2012 a Wilshire minutely gap occurred from a valuation level of 14393 gapping to a new 8-9 month valuation high (secondary to the 2 May 2011 14500 high) at a level of 14395 with an ultimate high of 14403 at 1310-1315 EST.

    The 5 minute time unit interpolated three phase growth fractal pattern to the 1310-1315 EST valuation high was a three phase 4/8/8 five minute unit :: x/2x/2x fractal starting at about 1145 EST.

    The 24 February 1145 EST 85 minute 4/8/8 five minute unit three phase fractal of the macroeconomy's self assembly system completely absorbed the last of the vanishing pool of Wilshire's net buyers.

    After the 14403 high, the Wilshire ended near the low of the day at 14365.

    Equity and commodity (except US debt futures) asset valuation are in a dual window of historical US 70/154 year and 9/23 year equity second fractal nonlinearity corresponding to unprecedented US and global debt load, forward consumption and production, and an asset oversupplied, and asset overvalued saturated macroeconomy.

    Now is the time period of the unexpected nonlinearity that the Main Page of the 2005 Economic Fractalist alludes to.
    Feb 24, 2012. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Wilshire Final Lower High: 9 February 2012. The Marker: The US Note 13/32 Week Second Fractal Concluding Gap  [View instapost]
    This was originally posted about 0530 EST 10 February; changed ten year note monthly fractal from 27/65/58 to 27/65/57 months '''

    ... add to the above the disintegration of the euro disequilibrium with the great disparity of health of Germany verses the sick austere debt burdened weak countries and the insanely leveraged lending of Euro banks -

    ... China will perhaps see the greatest devolution in asset prices and employment.
    Feb 10, 2012. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Central Banks' Reverse Sovietization of the World's Economies, Political Parties, and Populations.  [View instapost]
    "Over the next two trading weeks of 12 December 2011 and 19 December 2011, global equities and the CRB are expected to reached 2011 low valuations while the US Ten Year Note will reach 2011 record low interest rates. "
    Dec 14, 2011. 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The DAX: The CAC: The Ubiquitous Lammert x/2.5x/2x Fractal Pattern: Ecce the Skeletonized 11 August 2011 :: 7/17/14 day : Three Phase Final Lammert Growth Pattern [View instapost]
    The Wilshire - Gold Great Crash: 20 October 2011 Final Growth completed : x/2.5x/2x ::10/23-26/20-21 days

    Gold and the XAU is undergoing nonlinear devaluation.

    Deflation: assets denominated in fewer monetary units.

    The mecroeconomy is a bounded system composed of three primary elements: debt,money, and assets.

    Importantly debt and money are also assets whose valuations flunctate in a quantum mathematical progression against the other assets in the system: real estate, commodities, equities, and the large black box of the financial elite's derivatives, insurance, and money schemes which are themselves insured on the backs of the real economy.

    Debt out of proportion to wages and real estate oversupply out of proportion to the needed capacity has been collaboratively fostered by the financial industry, the central banks, and the politicians.

    World citizens have been effectively enserfed by the debt.

    Reasonable politicians who have advocated fiscal responsibility in the past and are now advocating a 40,000 presidential salary work against who have been enserfed by the financial industry, whose debt load in a faltering oversupplied economy, becomes 6 times greater with the leader of the leading economic reducing his salary by 6 fold.

    In fact there are defacto working the literal elite rentier class who use the money scammed from Wall Street ups and down, shorts and longs, puts and call to buy foreclosured real estate in a collapsing economy for a fraction of the peak inflated values - caused by the same elite class.

    The only hero in the group for the debtor class is the current Federal Chairman who has the right idea about the use of the Sovereign country money.

    The only hero for the elite bond holder's is paradoxically also the current Federal Chairman who offers a possibility that the entire debt system will not be overturned by the creation of a third political party and overturned by popular democratic demand.

    From the Wilshire March 2011 low: 48/106 of 120 days:: x/2.5x and from the 9 August low: 10/23/20/2 of 15 days :: x/2.3x/2x/1.5x.
    Oct 20, 2011. 05:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Self-Organizing Self Assembly Bounded Global Macroeconomic System: The September 2011 Historical Global Equity Crash [View instapost]

    All deleveraging could over the next five trading days ...... 11/27-28/23 of 28 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y vice 11/27-28/22/2 -3 of 15-17 days x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x

    From the Wilshire March 2009 low

    Wilshire's First growth fractal: 88 days

    Wilshire's Second growth fractal 221 days (with two half days of trading total 220 days exactly 2.5x with characteristic nonlinear drop in terminal 2-2,5x of 88 day base with
    terminal portion following a 6/15/12/9 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x series to the low on day 221.

    Wilshire's Third and Fourth confluent fractals: Lower low starting fractal of 27 days with base of 14 days in terminal portion of 221 Second fractal for a interpolated averaged fractal of 12/30/24/18 days :: x/2.45x/2x/1.5x

    27 day lower low fractal shared proportionally: 1/3 with second fractal and 2/3 with 3rd and 4th confluent fractal. 9 days or 2 weeks integrated with second fractal and 18 days or 4 weeks integrated with 3rd and 4th fractal.

    The March 2009 Wilshire's first and second growth fractals fractals made of 19 and 49 weeks or total of 67 weeks

    The Wilshire's subsequent confluent Third growth and Fourth decay fractals composed of an average 2x + 1.5-1.6x or 67 to 69 weeks

    The Wilshire's third fractal has an initiating lower low fractal of (4 weeks) or (18 days)

    weeks (4 week initiating) then 10/23/ (7/14/13 of 14-17 (weeks)
    days (18 day initiating) then 42/105/(33/(65-67)/(11... 2 of 16 days) x/2.5x/2x/1.5x or 11/27-28/23-24 of 28 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y days

    The 33 day subfractal of the 42/105/33 day growth series is composed of a 5/13/10/8 day x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x series.

    Third fractal peak valuations occurred on day 65 (1.6x the base fractal of 42) with a secondary peak near day 84 .... 42/105/peak 65 (1.6x of 42 day base) 84 2x secondary spike with a projected interpolated 33/67/67-82 day :: y/2y/2-2.5y decay fractal :: x/2.5x/(y/2y/2-2.5y)

    This would place the sum of the length of the first two fractal lengths equal to the sum of the lengths of the confluent 3rd and fourth fractals 19 + 47 + 2 weeks = 67 weeks = 4 + 10 + 23 + 7 +14 +14 weeks.

    Alternatively the current 11/27/22/3 of 15-17 day projection or 33//65-67//11/27/22/3 of 15-17 day fractal would produce an extra two weeks or 69 weeks with a 1.6x vice 1.5x equivalent fourth fractal.
    Sep 11, 2011. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why I Am Strongly Bearish - Take Two [View article]
    Apple's 20 June Final Peak Fractal Series: 10/26/15 of 15-17 days

    Apple is following a monthly pattern very similar to physical gold and the XAU: a 7/18/13 month fractal series. Gold and the XAU are following a 7/16/14 month growth fractal.

    Both Apple and Golds' valuations are supported by the underlying money supply, which is nonlinearly deteriorating secondary to collapsing defaulting debt.. Both Apple and Gold both pay no interest or dividends and are are at the pinnacle of Saturation Macroeconomic's third fractal growth.

    For Apple a 20 June 2011 10/26/15 day final fractal series is easily observable. Because final third fractal growth is often a 1.6 ratio of the base fractal Apple's third 15 day fractal could be extended to 16 or 17 days for final 3/8/6-8 day fractal series.

    Apple has increased in value more than 50 times from its 2002-2003 lows whereas physical gold has increased by less than 8 times from its 1999-2001 lows.

    A four phase 10/26/16-21/15-16 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series could take Apple 200 dollars or more below its current value with a nonlinear drop after day 16 of the third fractal and a reversal on day 20 or 21 of the third fractal ending on the high of that day and thereafter deteriorating in a 15-16 day fourth decay fractal.
    Aug 28, 2011. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment