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The Economic Fractalist

The Economic Fractalist
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  • The Null Hypothesis and the Science of Saturation Macroeconomics [View instapost]
    Wednesday 24 August: 3/8/8/5 of 5 days.
    Aug 23, 2011. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nikkei and Wilshire and Global Equity Collapse: The Wilshire's Completed Final Reflexic x/2.5x/2x Saturation Growth Fractal: An Analogous Comparison of the 11 October 2007 and 22 July 2011 Final Reflexic Patterned Valuation Highs. Lammert Saturation  [View instapost]
    Saturation Macroeconomics: The Wilshire's July-November to early December 2011 Patterned Nonlinear Historical Collapse

    Consistent with the quantitative patterned behavior of Saturation Macroecroeconomics, the Wilshire is undergoing expected patterned collapse with a base fractal of 8 days which includes the 22 July lower high.

    The second fractal collapse pattern now occurring is a deteriorating 3/8/3 of 6-8/5 days

    From this second fractal low, growth is expected for 14 days (caricatured third fractal) with a lower low in 11 addtitonal days(4th fractal).

    This 23 day combined third and fourth fractal with have a secondary low in about 54 days.
    Aug 11, 2011. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECCE the XAU 2009 x/2.5x/2x :: 26-27/67/54 Week Fractal [View instapost]
    Monday 8 August: Gold's peak valuation characteristic insane speculator gapped dot?
    Aug 8, 2011. 04:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reflections on the Wilshire's Final 25 April 2011 9/22/23 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x Reflexic Peak Valuation Saturation Area before the15-22 July 2011 Collapse [View instapost]
    Bastille Day 2011 The Multiyear Peak Valuation For Gold :the 14 July 9/21/21 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x Maximum and Final Peak Growth Fractal

    What is gold? It is likely ..... a precious metal.

    There are many years of deflation ahead as the growth of world debt which fuels - forward based consumer global GDP growth - consolidates and contracts.

    The overriding desired end for the financial industry's central bankers and their defacto employed politicians and newly established political organizations eg Tea Partiers is the maintenance of the debt/monetary system of which most of their accumulated wealth is 'lock boxed' in.

    Now the global Rentier class push is on through their agents for austerity, entitlement retrenchment, and balanced budgets. Governmental reduction in debt expansion will have a demultiplier effect on the real economy.

    There are many years of deflation ahead and gold in dollars may ultimately reach Its 1974-75 peak valuation.

    Within these coming years of deflation, there will occur time based fractal periods with sudden nonlinear asset valuation contractions corresponding to large blocks of debt undergoing necessary default with a further derivative multiplier effect on the financial industry's leveraged bets

    Gold's monthly fractal series at its peak is 27-31/67/34 months.
    Jul 17, 2011. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SATURATION MACROECONOMICS: A CONFIRMED NEW SCIENCE: ECCE: The 1 July 2011 Perfect Concluding Reciprocal Four Phase X/2-2.5X/2X/1.6X Lammert Fractal Series For the (Inverse of Growth) Composite Wilshire and The Growing US Ten Year Note [View instapost]
    6 July 2011:

    Could it be a perfect Wilshire Maximum Lammert x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal?

    6 July 2011: the 295th day of the 3rd fractal of 118/295/295 day x/2.5x/2.5x maximum fractal growth series ....

    Can the laws and simple fractal math of Saturation Macroeconomics be this quantitatively perfect?

    ... Meanwhile, the ongoing direction of the US 30 Year Bond and US Ten Year Note is higher(Growth and lower interest rates)
    Jul 6, 2011. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SATURATION MACROECONOMICS: A CONFIRMED NEW SCIENCE: ECCE: The 1 July 2011 Perfect Concluding Reciprocal Four Phase X/2-2.5X/2X/1.6X Lammert Fractal Series For the (Inverse of Growth) Composite Wilshire and The Growing US Ten Year Note [View instapost]
    And now with the 6 May 2010 flash crash :: 188/295/294 days
    Jul 5, 2011. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SATURATION MACROECONOMICS: A CONFIRMED NEW SCIENCE: ECCE: The 1 July 2011 Perfect Concluding Reciprocal Four Phase X/2-2.5X/2X/1.6X Lammert Fractal Series For the (Inverse of Growth) Composite Wilshire and The Growing US Ten Year Note [View instapost]
    The Global 6 May 2010 flash crash in the context of the 21 year decaying Nikkei and Quantum Saturation Macroeconomics.

    The 6 May 2010 flash crash may be the maximal 2.5x second fractal end marker for a 118/295/293 day x/2.5x/2.5x Wilshire.The Fractal monthly decay progression for the NIKKEI y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y containing the 40.000 high in 1989 is

    57 // 130 // 100 months
    are 10/26/23 // 36/75/ and 6/15 // 19/49/ and 6/15/15

    The last 6/15/15 month takes the Nikkei to 1 July 2011

    The Wilshire 6 March 2009 to 6 May 2010 is 295 days in length; the length from 6 May 2010 until 1 July 2011 is 293 days in length: For the Wilshire the 6/15/15 month Nikkei corresponds to a 25/62/61-62 week or 118/295/293 day fractal :: x/2.5x/2.5x.
    Jul 4, 2011. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is It...Friday June 24 2010: The Wilshire 3rd Fractal's 249th Day of a Wilshire 100/249/249 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x Maximum Growth Saturated Fractal Series  [View instapost]
    27 June 2011

    The Wilshire Decay Fractal: 8/16 of 20/20 days :: x(y)/2x(2y) of (2.5y)/(2.5y)

    Nonlinearity with Wilshire Gapped Lower Lows Expected 28 June thru 1 July With

    Money flowing reciprocally into

    US 30 Year Bonds with an Evolving Maximum Growth Fractal:14/34/10 of 34 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x
    Jun 27, 2011. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 June 2011: The Incipient Day Of The Great Crash ::The 2011 Day Unit Devaluation Crash Sequence Using Ideal Lammert Second Fractal Nodal Lows And The 6 March 2009 Lammert Ideal Four Phase Fractal Expected Nodal Low [View instapost]
    June 13 a major devaluation below the 3 June low? ,,,,,,,,, check
    (OK, it was a smooth decline to the 13 June low, but the 13 June low was a minutely gapped lower low ...... see comments)
    June 14 an increasing valuation day? ............ check
    June 15 a lower valuation below the the 13 June low? ---------check
    Jun 15, 2011. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 June 2011: The Incipient Day Of The Great Crash ::The 2011 Day Unit Devaluation Crash Sequence Using Ideal Lammert Second Fractal Nodal Lows And The 6 March 2009 Lammert Ideal Four Phase Fractal Expected Nodal Low [View instapost]
    The Wilshire's minutely gap lower low om 13 June 2011:

    Small and puny but nevertheless a nodal low.

    Jun 14, 2011. 03:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2011 Day Unit Devaluation Crash Sequence Using Ideal Lammert Second Fractal Nodal Lows And The 6 March 2009 Lammert Ideal Four Phase Fractal Expected Nodal Low [View instapost]
    Wilshire Growth till Friday 10 June?

    ... was declining growth :: 6/15/15 hours :: x/2.5/2.5x

    Indicative of a collapsing valuation market.....

    Jun 10, 2011. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 May 2011 The Most Important and Final Posting of Saturation Macroeconomics: The 2011 Crash Devolution Quantum y/2.5y/2.5y Fractal Pathway. The identified 2 July 2010 42/105/105 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal and the 18 August 2010 interpolated x/2.5x [View instapost]
    27 May 2011 : Maximum time growth for the Wilshire? The 2 July 2010 42/105/84 days :: x/2.5x/2x and 18 August 2010 33/83/83 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x interpolated growth fractals.

    Was Friday 27 May 2011 the Wilshire's final lower high growth day before the first phase of two phases of nonlinear valuation decline?

    Friday 27 May 2011 was the third fractal's day 84 of a 2 July 2010 42/105/84 day :: x/2.5x/2x growth fractal which concluding in an 8/17 of 19-20/19-20 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay pattern becomes a 2 July 2011 42/105/105 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal.

    From the 18 August 2010 composite 33 day base composed of 2/5/5 day:: y/2.5y/2.5y decay and a 5/13/8 first growth fractal, May 27 was a third fractal's 83 day of a 33/83/83 :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth fractal.
    May 28, 2011. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECCE The Perfect Skeletalized Lammert Fractal: The 25 May 2010 Nikkei Futures 27/54 Days:: x/2x - Now To The Second Fractal 2.5x Low  [View instapost]
    26 April: one day off and the conclusion of the last x/2x fractal :: 10/20 days.. The Wilshire gapped above its 18 February high on day 20 of a 10/20 :: x/2x fractal.

    The telltale sign for the 26th of April was the the US long bond and note which diverged with lower rates.

    The CB Chairman well knows what's coming. Deflation. Rise of the US dollar against European currencies. Historically low interest rates.

    Wallstreet's Finacial Industry has lined its pockets with veveraged ZIRP dollars courtesy of the collusive actions of the world central banks.

    The post hoc ergo propter hoc CB speech is scheduled for today.
    Apr 27, 2011. 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Saturated Macroeconomy's Mathematically Perfect Predictable Albino Black Swan occurring 26 April 2011 [View instapost]
    For the DJIA, the gapped high occurred in the last trading minutes on 21 April 2011. The Wilshire did make a final tertiary high to the 18 February high within the first trading hour on 25 April 2011.

    With 2 trading holidays on Friday and Monday, the European Market is now a trading day behind the US market.

    The DAX, representative of a market economy with the lowest debt ratio did have a mnutely gap on 26 April within the first two trading hours taking the index to a secondary high to the Fibonnaci 1.6x 18 February 2011 trading area.

    The great crash sequence is 10/19 to 20 of 25/25 days : : y/2.5y/2.5y as of 26 April 2011.

    In the last three years the financial industry has used the money system and central bank policy to skim dollars. During global retrenchment, these dollars will buy hard assets for dimes on the dollar.

    And history repeats itself ......
    Apr 26, 2011. 05:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Saturated Macroeconomy's Mathematically Perfect Predictable Albino Black Swan occurring 26 April 2011 [View instapost]
    The Predicted Decay Fractal Sequence:

    6 May - 31August 2010: Lammert quantum saturation macroeconomics in a nutshell.

    Monday 25 April, 2010 is the 164th day (2x) of the 82 day (x) 6 May 2010 to 31 August 2010 base fractal composed of a perfect Lammert averaged x/2.5x/2x/1.6x growth and decay pattern :: 12/30/24/19 days. The 6 May 2010 actual fractal nodal lows are14/27/43 days - the asset valuations exist within an integrated system; lower lows predict the direction of asset valuations.

    This 82 day base fractal and the subsequent 31 August 2010 64 day base fractal which is composed of two subfractals: 8/18/12 days and 7/15/10 days form the two interlocking fractal bases for the coming historical asset valuation collapse. On Monday 25 April 2011 the great Wilshire, summation of all US equity valuation, is expected to have minutely gaps to higher levels but not exceeding the February 18 2011 high - and potentially end on the low of the day.

    The area under the equity valuation curves represents the available speculative money to support asset valuations. The y axis is time and x axis is asset valuation. The system integrates a portion of preceding decay fractal into the next phase of growth. This is why in quantum fractal saturation macroeconomics uses a double counting system whereby a nodal low is designated as time unit one vice time unit zero and why larger fractal times units, for example months which incorporate the terminal portions of the lower order weeks are more accurate. Looking at the monthly chart for the Wilshire from the 6 March 2009 low, a x/2.5x/2x fractal or 5/13/10 months is easily discernible. This is a Lammert growth sequence first described in Urban Survival - a 1929 replay and later in the 2005 The Economic Fractalist main page. www.economicfractalist.../

    In its toolbox to fix or maintain the US macroeconomic tax generating engine(essential for debt obligation liquidation) the 1913 Federal Reserve has only two tools left in its tool kit: a hammer and a very large sledge hammer. This delicate engine will need some careful sledgehammer taps to loosen and remove bolts. Bolts are better removed with a proper fitting wrench; a sledgehammer is only likely to damage other parts of the engine with little on the bolts. While maintaining funding for social security, medicare, medicaid, US military government contractors and federal government workers, the use of the hammer of zero interest rates and sledgehammer of money fabrication is killing savers, traditional banking practices, and the middle class through commodity inflation. The Federal reserve's acceptable level of inflation appears to refer solely to wage pressure. There is no wage pressure, no need for the elite to be concerned about the little people having more opportunity in this saturated macroeconomy, because the central bank's hammer and sledge hammer mentality, in such an asset saturated environment primarily caused by the federal reserve's practices, has created such asset overvaluation of the common citizen's major holding, i,.e., real estate and such a coexisting and now collapsing bubble in the service sector - which after the stimulus package is now regressing. The sledgehammer approach of the central banks have defacto promoted only one group: the collective class of speculators, financiers, the moneyed elite, bankers, and this group's lobbied and bought politicians. The sledgehammer approach of the central banks - which is the central bankers' only end option and tool - is doomed to failed. While it might succeed in a Parker's brother game, it cannot succeed in a real macroeconomy system - it is failing. The bureaucracies and entire system needs to be reordered. Incentives have to be established to reward saving and actual useful job creation. Global merciless taxation of speculation and transactions on speculation trades must be established to crush the money changers and that avenue of worthless gain. History shows banking to be an incredible scam and central bankers central to the scam. Napoleon had it right. Ross Perot had it right.

    With regard to integration of preceding decay areas of the ongoing valuation curves, the 6 March 2009 second fractal from nodal low to nodal low 8 July 2009 to 1 July 2010 was 249 days in length. The ideal first fractal would be 100 days which is captured in a 5/13/10 month:: x/2.5x/2x growth fractal. The Wilshire's 18 February 2010 high was the 162nd day of a 100/249/162 day series. The golden Fibonacci ratio is 1.618. The global macroeconomy is at its saturation limits: outstanding bad debt will never to be repaid; a plethora of entitlements will never to be honored; housing mortgages are grossly beyond the market value; global housing supply relative to wages is disproportionally enormous, especially in China, completely disconnected from the laws of supply and demand; 2011 job numbers and job wages in the US are remarkably and historically ten million less than 2001 in spite of a growing population, young Americans face a wall of inopportunity,- and the Fed and world central bankers are swinging drunkenly, blindfolded, and without wherewithal, over sized sledgehammers that are causing more damage than benefit.. The global macroeconomy is at a multigenerational saturation point. Perhaps central bankers cannot discontinue what they are doing because they know they are so very responsible for the current state of overvaluation and oversupply.

    18 February 2011 is near the end of this saturation area. Valuation growth, even under the central bankers most ardent sledgehammer tactics to impossibly fix a complicated and elegant engine of macroeconomic balance, will not not proceed to higher valuations. In nature a limitation and bending of growth occurs at natural time ordered saturation areas. The Fibonacci ratio:1.618 empirically characterizes this limitation and the 162nd day, 18 February 2011, of the third fractal of a 100/249/162 day sequence (considering half trading days) is a reasonable retrospective saturation high.

    Now for predicted decay. How many times predicted and how many times wrong? Many. Many. Many. Edison too made a few bad bulbs; he knew the principal to be true; but he just didn't have right observation mix. (Perhaps he should have kept Tesla around).

    The predicted decay sequence:

    From the 6 May 2010 82 day base and the 31 August 64 day base a synergistic second fractal sequence is hypothesized with 25 April 2011 the exact 2x ratio (164th day) of the 6 May 2010 82 day base and the final higher high for the elite Dow and final lower high to the Fibonocci 18 Feburary 2011 averaged ideal 100/249/161.8 day fractal sequence for the US all inclusive great Wilshire.

    At the conclusion of the 31 August 2010 64 day base, a 13/30/33 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y day decay fractal (74 days) is observed for Wilshire. The historical greatest ever decay fractal starting on 16 March 2011 is an expected 10/25/25 day y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal with the 19th day of the second 25 day fractal or 25 April 2011 - the final higher high for the DJIA and final lower high for the all-encompassing Wilshire. The third decay fractal of 25 days is expected to be an 8/18 day decay fractal with the break-down after the 15th day of the second 18 day fractal. The 15th day is day 128 2x of the 31 August 2010 64 day x base fractal.

    The ideal final completion of the lower low is expected on day 12 of a 8/18/12 day fractal which is day 2.5x or day 205 of the 6 May 2010 82 day x base fractal.

    The Federal will continue QE even if by sub rosa means, eg, the US central bank will give the Euro central banks 2 trillion of dollars; the Euro central banks give the US 2 trillion's worth of Euro's - and then lend to each other: its an incredibly collusive decadent money laundering money creation system. In the end monetization will destroy America's middle class via commodity price speculative inflation. The alternative is no better: jobless deflation. There is no solution other than real market painful retrenchment and dissolution of bad debt and asset overvaluation. The system is grossly unfair to America's new generations. It is a failed system where the worthless financial elite do artificially well in an contrived valueless added monetary system.

    New rules are needed. new leadership is needed. The great US constitution, blue print for fairness and honest opportunity - needs to be restored.
    Apr 25, 2011. 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment