Stanley Barton's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/411142/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-18683381 18683381
I would be lying if I said I was not disappointed with RVM, and you are correct that the mine has been closed in the first quarter for repairs. I guess if there is any good about this is that all mines need maintenance sooner or later, and it is better to suspend production when silver is at a very low price. RVM is a proven producer and I suspect will generate positive cash flow in Q3. I originally was attracted to RVM because it had the added asset of the Bear Creek property, which could be a giant resource for silver in the US. Unfortunately, the environmentalists are fighting hard to keep that mine from being a reality, even though RVM has won all the court battles. It would also be a good boost for the local economy. If you believe, as I do, that silver will trend higher over the long term, RVM looks like a good contrarian play. I am going to listen to the conference call on May 13 and see if the insiders drop any clues why they are buying shares.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 13:53:25 -0400
I would be lying if I said I was not disappointed with RVM, and you are correct that the mine has been closed in the first quarter for repairs. I guess if there is any good about this is that all mines need maintenance sooner or later, and it is better to suspend production when silver is at a very low price. RVM is a proven producer and I suspect will generate positive cash flow in Q3. I originally was attracted to RVM because it had the added asset of the Bear Creek property, which could be a giant resource for silver in the US. Unfortunately, the environmentalists are fighting hard to keep that mine from being a reality, even though RVM has won all the court battles. It would also be a good boost for the local economy. If you believe, as I do, that silver will trend higher over the long term, RVM looks like a good contrarian play. I am going to listen to the conference call on May 13 and see if the insiders drop any clues why they are buying shares.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1327161/comments?source=feed#comment-18681271 18681271
I think TTI is a good long-term buy at the price. I base that on the fact that I think that the services they provide are always going to be needed, and will be more necessary as oil fields are seeing their production falling...this happens pretty quickly in shale plays in particular. The drop was due to lower earnings and management's prediction of relatively slow rebound in production testing. The entire oil service sector is not very popular, but if you believe that oil is not going to drop drastically, and alternate energy forms have yet to make a meaningful impact, it is a sector that I think should be represented in my portfolio.

I also think the buyout prospects are not dead. Finally, the recent drubbing of COMPRESSCO may be making GSJK the best current option in this group.

Hope this helps,

Stan ]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 13:06:17 -0400
I think TTI is a good long-term buy at the price. I base that on the fact that I think that the services they provide are always going to be needed, and will be more necessary as oil fields are seeing their production falling...this happens pretty quickly in shale plays in particular. The drop was due to lower earnings and management's prediction of relatively slow rebound in production testing. The entire oil service sector is not very popular, but if you believe that oil is not going to drop drastically, and alternate energy forms have yet to make a meaningful impact, it is a sector that I think should be represented in my portfolio.

I also think the buyout prospects are not dead. Finally, the recent drubbing of COMPRESSCO may be making GSJK the best current option in this group.

Hope this helps,

Stan ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1401571/comments?source=feed#comment-18448351 18448351
I have loved horse racing longer than the stock market...which is five decades. I took the Delta Queen paddle-wheeler from Cincinnati to Louisville for the Derby a few years ago. The only major US track I have not been to during racing season is Saratoga and I think I may go this summer.

To appreciate the sport, it helps to understand the factors that go into handicapping, and in the computer age it is easier than in the past. Unfortunately, my grandsons do not have the patience to wait 25 minutes or more between races...they are used to instant action of video games. It requires a lot of thought and analysis to pick both stocks and horses, and it is lost on many in the general public in both cases...to their detriment.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> Sat, 04 May 2013 17:42:31 -0400
I have loved horse racing longer than the stock market...which is five decades. I took the Delta Queen paddle-wheeler from Cincinnati to Louisville for the Derby a few years ago. The only major US track I have not been to during racing season is Saratoga and I think I may go this summer.

To appreciate the sport, it helps to understand the factors that go into handicapping, and in the computer age it is easier than in the past. Unfortunately, my grandsons do not have the patience to wait 25 minutes or more between races...they are used to instant action of video games. It requires a lot of thought and analysis to pick both stocks and horses, and it is lost on many in the general public in both cases...to their detriment.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-18230761 18230761
Thanks for reading my article. I should mention that I own call options on PZG. I think it has legitimate resources, although the report of a billion in cash flow from San Miguel is based on resources, none of which meet the requirements to be called "reserves" as explained in this article. It also uses $29 silver, which is $5 more than the current price. It will also will take $500MM to start mining and processing these resources. Therefore, the current market value of the company is $240MM and so the present value is actually maybe triple that in theory. PZG in very rough numbers is running through about $16MM a year ($12MM in exploration and $4MM in overhead). It has $16MM in current assets. I think PZG can continue to sell assets to get cash but it needs to be acquired in the next two years or this company will be a fire sale.

I think there is not much likelihood that they will be acquired this year, as all the miners are treading water until prices improve. However, I do think that 2014 could be the year for both price acceleration in silver and acquisition activity. I am using the Jan 15 calls at $.35 per contract. My thought is that by then PZG will be acquired on good terms or sold off for peanuts. At any rate, I can only lose $.35 and possibly gain 10 times that in an acquisition.

This is a very speculative company, but in the right economic environment it could be one of the more desirable targets for acquisition. It is my only silver explorer investment and it is quite small.

Hope that helps.

Stan]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 13:25:05 -0400
Thanks for reading my article. I should mention that I own call options on PZG. I think it has legitimate resources, although the report of a billion in cash flow from San Miguel is based on resources, none of which meet the requirements to be called "reserves" as explained in this article. It also uses $29 silver, which is $5 more than the current price. It will also will take $500MM to start mining and processing these resources. Therefore, the current market value of the company is $240MM and so the present value is actually maybe triple that in theory. PZG in very rough numbers is running through about $16MM a year ($12MM in exploration and $4MM in overhead). It has $16MM in current assets. I think PZG can continue to sell assets to get cash but it needs to be acquired in the next two years or this company will be a fire sale.

I think there is not much likelihood that they will be acquired this year, as all the miners are treading water until prices improve. However, I do think that 2014 could be the year for both price acceleration in silver and acquisition activity. I am using the Jan 15 calls at $.35 per contract. My thought is that by then PZG will be acquired on good terms or sold off for peanuts. At any rate, I can only lose $.35 and possibly gain 10 times that in an acquisition.

This is a very speculative company, but in the right economic environment it could be one of the more desirable targets for acquisition. It is my only silver explorer investment and it is quite small.

Hope that helps.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-18045741 18045741
http://yhoo.it/10Agt1H

It is hard to say if this will help the stock price or not. Frequently, in these cases, the stock price drops a little immediately after the consolidation and then rebounds higher. ]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 15:58:28 -0400
http://yhoo.it/10Agt1H

It is hard to say if this will help the stock price or not. Frequently, in these cases, the stock price drops a little immediately after the consolidation and then rebounds higher. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17936241 17936241
1. I am not sure of the 15:1 ratio, as the ratio was distorted for years by the 1979 attempt of the Hunt Bros. to corner the silver market, sending it to $95 per once. However, in the past 2 years silver has declined 15% more than gold, so I would say that silver could improve 15% more than gold, based on that perspective.

2. In my opinion, gold enjoys more speculative play as a hedge against paper money collapse, inflation and world doom. Also, I think countries buy more gold,. as it is accepted more widely and is more easily stored and delivered. Personally, I think silver is less likely to become a bubble, as about half is used in industrial use, as opposed to gold.

3. If you do not trust managements, the ETF is one way to play silver. I personally prefer to take the risk on silver mining companies as they are more leveraged and likely to get better appreciation with a silver rebound, and maybe even pay a dividend. Of course, I have a hoard of scrap sterling silver hollowware accumulated over the years on Ebay and garage sales at an average price of about $6 per ounce. I store it in pacific cloth with my wife's out of season clothes and shoes at a storage facility. Something like that may be the best way to assure that you own the silver you pay for.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 12:31:38 -0400
1. I am not sure of the 15:1 ratio, as the ratio was distorted for years by the 1979 attempt of the Hunt Bros. to corner the silver market, sending it to $95 per once. However, in the past 2 years silver has declined 15% more than gold, so I would say that silver could improve 15% more than gold, based on that perspective.

2. In my opinion, gold enjoys more speculative play as a hedge against paper money collapse, inflation and world doom. Also, I think countries buy more gold,. as it is accepted more widely and is more easily stored and delivered. Personally, I think silver is less likely to become a bubble, as about half is used in industrial use, as opposed to gold.

3. If you do not trust managements, the ETF is one way to play silver. I personally prefer to take the risk on silver mining companies as they are more leveraged and likely to get better appreciation with a silver rebound, and maybe even pay a dividend. Of course, I have a hoard of scrap sterling silver hollowware accumulated over the years on Ebay and garage sales at an average price of about $6 per ounce. I store it in pacific cloth with my wife's out of season clothes and shoes at a storage facility. Something like that may be the best way to assure that you own the silver you pay for.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17838431 17838431
Attached is the company presentation indicating the "Total" cash costs per ounce at the La Negra mine as $6.43 and the Shafter mine as $10.00:

http://bit.ly/178l4qJ

If we use the method described in the article the 2012 all inclusive cash cost should be about $20. If we use the cash flow method, the cash costs would be about $17. You can take the time to calculate with more precision by getting the info from the company website. The cost should be better in 2013 as the company had substantial costs associated with the Shafter start up.

Hope this helps.

Stan]]> Fri, 19 Apr 2013 12:51:13 -0400
Attached is the company presentation indicating the "Total" cash costs per ounce at the La Negra mine as $6.43 and the Shafter mine as $10.00:

http://bit.ly/178l4qJ

If we use the method described in the article the 2012 all inclusive cash cost should be about $20. If we use the cash flow method, the cash costs would be about $17. You can take the time to calculate with more precision by getting the info from the company website. The cost should be better in 2013 as the company had substantial costs associated with the Shafter start up.

Hope this helps.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17765231 17765231
When most miners report the cost of production, they basically are reporting only labor, material and equipment to get the ounces out of the ground and processed, not including their land costs, exploration costs, taxes, general, administrative and sales costs, etc. In many cases this is single-digit or even negative. The costs mentioned for miners in the article include all those costs. Having said that, the Shafter cost should be pretty low, as the grade of silver is comparatively high and the land was purchased basically at a distress sale, with much equipment in place from previous owners.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 20:44:57 -0400
When most miners report the cost of production, they basically are reporting only labor, material and equipment to get the ounces out of the ground and processed, not including their land costs, exploration costs, taxes, general, administrative and sales costs, etc. In many cases this is single-digit or even negative. The costs mentioned for miners in the article include all those costs. Having said that, the Shafter cost should be pretty low, as the grade of silver is comparatively high and the land was purchased basically at a distress sale, with much equipment in place from previous owners.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17749251 17749251
I think that there are 3 primary reasons for the sell off:

1. All small miners have sold off - see GLDX ETF chart
2. The company announced an 8 for 1 reverse stock split, which did not sit well with investors.
3. The production that began last December in the Shafter mine in Texas has been snake-bitten by equipment problems, labor issues, management changes, etc. That is why I want to visit that mine to see for myself if issues are resolved.

Even at current production levels, I think this one is cheap.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 15:08:28 -0400
I think that there are 3 primary reasons for the sell off:

1. All small miners have sold off - see GLDX ETF chart
2. The company announced an 8 for 1 reverse stock split, which did not sit well with investors.
3. The production that began last December in the Shafter mine in Texas has been snake-bitten by equipment problems, labor issues, management changes, etc. That is why I want to visit that mine to see for myself if issues are resolved.

Even at current production levels, I think this one is cheap.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17744731 17744731
Thank you for the kind words.

I am not immune to the romance of silver investing, even though your assessment of the miners is probably accurate. I do not think that the silver price will drop past $22 or so. Anything under that could generate a rebound. Endeavor Silver stops selling the metal when the price gets too low, and others may decide to join in if prices are substantially below a profit level. They only have so many ounces to sell, so it does not make sense to give away the ounces at below break-even if they think a rebound is in sight.

Of course, anything is possible, and that is just my gut feel. I have submitted to SA an article with a more thorough analysis of the likely bottom for gold and I am assuming that silver will follow along in the short-term. Maybe they will approve the article.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 13:46:22 -0400
Thank you for the kind words.

I am not immune to the romance of silver investing, even though your assessment of the miners is probably accurate. I do not think that the silver price will drop past $22 or so. Anything under that could generate a rebound. Endeavor Silver stops selling the metal when the price gets too low, and others may decide to join in if prices are substantially below a profit level. They only have so many ounces to sell, so it does not make sense to give away the ounces at below break-even if they think a rebound is in sight.

Of course, anything is possible, and that is just my gut feel. I have submitted to SA an article with a more thorough analysis of the likely bottom for gold and I am assuming that silver will follow along in the short-term. Maybe they will approve the article.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17736461 17736461
If they produce a positive NI 43-101 report, it may be the last positive thing that they do. The market may bid up shares on the news, but I think the old philosophy of "sell on news" applies in this case.

The company is probably hoping for a buyout more than actually going into production. If they cannot get financing to build out production facilities and no buyout, they have about $1MM to burn, which could be gone pretty quickly....and then they are broke. It costs a lot to do the drilling and hire a firm to produce the reserve analysis. El Tigre issued an optimistic report that did not meet securities rules for disclosure, possibly gambling that they could get enough interest in the company to sell some shares for cash.

The tailings contain 2 or 3 ounces per ton, while other Mexican miners like Excellon Resources or Aurcana may have 10 - 20 ounces per ton and production equipment in place. I just prefer producers over explorers. Maybe a smaller payoff, but less risk.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 11:14:56 -0400
If they produce a positive NI 43-101 report, it may be the last positive thing that they do. The market may bid up shares on the news, but I think the old philosophy of "sell on news" applies in this case.

The company is probably hoping for a buyout more than actually going into production. If they cannot get financing to build out production facilities and no buyout, they have about $1MM to burn, which could be gone pretty quickly....and then they are broke. It costs a lot to do the drilling and hire a firm to produce the reserve analysis. El Tigre issued an optimistic report that did not meet securities rules for disclosure, possibly gambling that they could get enough interest in the company to sell some shares for cash.

The tailings contain 2 or 3 ounces per ton, while other Mexican miners like Excellon Resources or Aurcana may have 10 - 20 ounces per ton and production equipment in place. I just prefer producers over explorers. Maybe a smaller payoff, but less risk.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17733691 17733691
I agree and actually bought a little more also, just to round up my lot per the reverse split. I think the concern over the split is ridiculous, as it does not change any fundamentals. I also think there is some frustration that the Shafter mine in Texas is getting a slow production start, and I am planning a trip there to see for myself if there are issues that I am not aware of. I am patient, and just as soon see them produce the silver after a bounce back in price anyway. The Mexican mine is reliable and studies seem to indicate that it is getting better I will produce an article after my visit to Shafter.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 10:14:22 -0400
I agree and actually bought a little more also, just to round up my lot per the reverse split. I think the concern over the split is ridiculous, as it does not change any fundamentals. I also think there is some frustration that the Shafter mine in Texas is getting a slow production start, and I am planning a trip there to see for myself if there are issues that I am not aware of. I am patient, and just as soon see them produce the silver after a bounce back in price anyway. The Mexican mine is reliable and studies seem to indicate that it is getting better I will produce an article after my visit to Shafter.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343261/comments?source=feed#comment-17733401 17733401
Thanks for reading my article.

I think that banks are not loaning to non-producing miners in the amounts necessary to allow them to buy equipment and start-up costs to go into production. El Tigre needs $5MM and was recently called on the carpet for not making proper disclosures...a red flag for lenders. I think that if they have enough cash to complete a NI 43-101 it is likely that they can prove profit potential, but it is a longshot that they actually will ever go into production. That is why I would consider selling El Tigre when they produce the NI 43-101, if that happens.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 10:08:15 -0400
Thanks for reading my article.

I think that banks are not loaning to non-producing miners in the amounts necessary to allow them to buy equipment and start-up costs to go into production. El Tigre needs $5MM and was recently called on the carpet for not making proper disclosures...a red flag for lenders. I think that if they have enough cash to complete a NI 43-101 it is likely that they can prove profit potential, but it is a longshot that they actually will ever go into production. That is why I would consider selling El Tigre when they produce the NI 43-101, if that happens.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1302021/comments?source=feed#comment-17481111 17481111
I am not an expert on medical technology, but I became interested in this area as my wife was looking for a non-invasive way to tighten some saggy skin under her chin. We looked into options and SLTM's Thermage radio-frequency system seemed to be preferred to the laser light treatments by her friends. We actually found another treatment that was very similar, and it was apparently considered better than the SLTM Thermage for faces and Thermage was superior for body areas, according to on-line reviews. I cannot say this is true, other than our dermatologist seemed to agree with all the above, and he offered several treatments. However, I think the original and most recognized is the Thermage brand, and marketing material for the other treatment compared it to Thermage. In fact, one competitor indicated that their treatment was especially effective when combined with Fraxel treatment, another SLTM brand. Having said that, I think the distinguishing factor may not be the technology itself as much as the superior brand recognition. Better technology may be available, but the SLTM head-start in getting its equipment into doctor offices provides some insulation.

Many companies that deal with patents and development cost amortization, acquisitions and other factors that generate somewhat subjective evaluations can have big one-time fluctuations as those values are reassessed each quarter or year. That is why I said that the better method of evaluation is to look at the cash flow. The fact that about half of revenue is from recurring sales of disposables and maintenance provides a more reliable base for the cash flow generation. Having said that, I also have less comfort level with non-GAAP reporting. I also am not very impressed with the current cash flow and earnings, as much as the expectations that SLTM can increase those now that they seem to be solidly in positive cash flow mode.

Hope this helps.

Stan]]> Thu, 11 Apr 2013 01:32:01 -0400
I am not an expert on medical technology, but I became interested in this area as my wife was looking for a non-invasive way to tighten some saggy skin under her chin. We looked into options and SLTM's Thermage radio-frequency system seemed to be preferred to the laser light treatments by her friends. We actually found another treatment that was very similar, and it was apparently considered better than the SLTM Thermage for faces and Thermage was superior for body areas, according to on-line reviews. I cannot say this is true, other than our dermatologist seemed to agree with all the above, and he offered several treatments. However, I think the original and most recognized is the Thermage brand, and marketing material for the other treatment compared it to Thermage. In fact, one competitor indicated that their treatment was especially effective when combined with Fraxel treatment, another SLTM brand. Having said that, I think the distinguishing factor may not be the technology itself as much as the superior brand recognition. Better technology may be available, but the SLTM head-start in getting its equipment into doctor offices provides some insulation.

Many companies that deal with patents and development cost amortization, acquisitions and other factors that generate somewhat subjective evaluations can have big one-time fluctuations as those values are reassessed each quarter or year. That is why I said that the better method of evaluation is to look at the cash flow. The fact that about half of revenue is from recurring sales of disposables and maintenance provides a more reliable base for the cash flow generation. Having said that, I also have less comfort level with non-GAAP reporting. I also am not very impressed with the current cash flow and earnings, as much as the expectations that SLTM can increase those now that they seem to be solidly in positive cash flow mode.

Hope this helps.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1302021/comments?source=feed#comment-16896301 16896301
You are correct, and the crackdown on costs is not likely to affect the cosmetic area as much as some. However, I think that a general crackdown on healthcare costs could create collateral damage,. Those policies that actually pay some on these procedures may drop that coverage before other services in an effort to control premium increases. At any rate, I have been watching this stock and it seems to react to news about health cost controls like others, regardless of the real effect on it.

Stan]]> Wed, 27 Mar 2013 15:52:06 -0400
You are correct, and the crackdown on costs is not likely to affect the cosmetic area as much as some. However, I think that a general crackdown on healthcare costs could create collateral damage,. Those policies that actually pay some on these procedures may drop that coverage before other services in an effort to control premium increases. At any rate, I have been watching this stock and it seems to react to news about health cost controls like others, regardless of the real effect on it.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1302021/comments?source=feed#comment-16888741 16888741
I noticed the typo on the ticker after the article was published.]]> Wed, 27 Mar 2013 13:08:42 -0400
I noticed the typo on the ticker after the article was published.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1302021/comments?source=feed#comment-16875641 16875641
Thanks for the insightful comment. It is likely that the demand will be there as a lot of people get older at the same time, but it is a good point that someone must pay for the services, medicines and devices. That opens the political debate. When I was an undergraduate at Southern Methodist University, a very conservative, Christian-based school, the Economics prof asked the students if they encountered a sick, poor person laying on the sidewalk, what would they do? The majority said they would step over him or go to the other side of the street...bums are responsible for their own problems.

The reality, at least for now, is that basic services are provided and paid by some government entity when a poor person goes to the emergency room. However, some of the latest drugs are so pricey that it is naive toi think that just because a medical solution exists that people will have the money to take advantage of that. Cosmetic services such as those by SLTM are mostly optional, and the market is the middle-upper income sector. However, you have a point that if a family is paying through the nose for basic services, it is bound to eat into the budget for optional services.

DHRM is in a different situation, as the Peoples Republic of China is very much controlling healthcare in that country, and DHRM is focusing on working with the government to make sure that their products are the easiest option for consumers.

Thanks for the comment, and perhaps this is a concept that will open other investment alternatives.

Stan]]> Wed, 27 Mar 2013 10:11:10 -0400
Thanks for the insightful comment. It is likely that the demand will be there as a lot of people get older at the same time, but it is a good point that someone must pay for the services, medicines and devices. That opens the political debate. When I was an undergraduate at Southern Methodist University, a very conservative, Christian-based school, the Economics prof asked the students if they encountered a sick, poor person laying on the sidewalk, what would they do? The majority said they would step over him or go to the other side of the street...bums are responsible for their own problems.

The reality, at least for now, is that basic services are provided and paid by some government entity when a poor person goes to the emergency room. However, some of the latest drugs are so pricey that it is naive toi think that just because a medical solution exists that people will have the money to take advantage of that. Cosmetic services such as those by SLTM are mostly optional, and the market is the middle-upper income sector. However, you have a point that if a family is paying through the nose for basic services, it is bound to eat into the budget for optional services.

DHRM is in a different situation, as the Peoples Republic of China is very much controlling healthcare in that country, and DHRM is focusing on working with the government to make sure that their products are the easiest option for consumers.

Thanks for the comment, and perhaps this is a concept that will open other investment alternatives.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1181581/comments?source=feed#comment-16728691 16728691
The 2012 earnings report was about as expected. The distribution agreement for the alcohol testing equipment is a positive, but I do not expect a huge impact from this. However, it does support my expectation that PMD will continue to look for ways to expand and grow.

For me, the dividend is the main attraction, and if it is sustainable. The idea of the article is that the company is concerned about keeping its commitment to shareholders, and that maintaining and increasing the dividend is a priority is indicative of that attitude. Having said that, I do believe the current yield is safe, but I do not think that PMD will increase the dividend until the costs of the new technology and its success are clearly determined.

From a technical point of view, the stock reacted a little negatively to the start up cost impact in the 4th quarter, so the "cup and handle" set up did not materialize. The stock is sitting on its 200-day moving average, where it typically has rebounded. With a 5% dividend yield, I do not expect it to drop much further unless the general market collapses.

For the long term, I continue to think that drug testing has some opportunities for growth, as mentioned in the article.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> Sun, 24 Mar 2013 11:24:24 -0400
The 2012 earnings report was about as expected. The distribution agreement for the alcohol testing equipment is a positive, but I do not expect a huge impact from this. However, it does support my expectation that PMD will continue to look for ways to expand and grow.

For me, the dividend is the main attraction, and if it is sustainable. The idea of the article is that the company is concerned about keeping its commitment to shareholders, and that maintaining and increasing the dividend is a priority is indicative of that attitude. Having said that, I do believe the current yield is safe, but I do not think that PMD will increase the dividend until the costs of the new technology and its success are clearly determined.

From a technical point of view, the stock reacted a little negatively to the start up cost impact in the 4th quarter, so the "cup and handle" set up did not materialize. The stock is sitting on its 200-day moving average, where it typically has rebounded. With a 5% dividend yield, I do not expect it to drop much further unless the general market collapses.

For the long term, I continue to think that drug testing has some opportunities for growth, as mentioned in the article.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1200531/comments?source=feed#comment-16600991 16600991
I agree...not a good idea to try to "catch a falling knife" they say. However, WSCI gapped up from $5 on June 20, 2012 and the recent drop filled in that gap. That is often the point that represents solid support. The market in general is ripe for a drop, but long-term I do not mind getting the dividend yield while waiting....not many alternatives right now. I added at $5.05 as I am short on industrials in the diversified portfolio.

Stan]]> Thu, 21 Mar 2013 10:38:41 -0400
I agree...not a good idea to try to "catch a falling knife" they say. However, WSCI gapped up from $5 on June 20, 2012 and the recent drop filled in that gap. That is often the point that represents solid support. The market in general is ripe for a drop, but long-term I do not mind getting the dividend yield while waiting....not many alternatives right now. I added at $5.05 as I am short on industrials in the diversified portfolio.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1200531/comments?source=feed#comment-16548601 16548601
The drop in income was expected, but the market reaction was not. The company had warned that the energy business was soft and I mentioned in the article that the latest report should be the "trough" in the earnings reports. However, the guidance is for only slow improvement, and it looks like some traders are impatient. As for me, the current yield is 3%, and I expect the company to aggressively pursue other large customers, given that the manufacturing capacity is coming on-line. Any progress on that front would cause a pop, in my opinion. In the meantime, I think the yield justifies holding. With many micro-caps selling close to highs with big PE's, WSCI may be the best kind of opportunity to get value and income, which was the original thesis....it only looks better now.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> Wed, 20 Mar 2013 11:40:54 -0400
The drop in income was expected, but the market reaction was not. The company had warned that the energy business was soft and I mentioned in the article that the latest report should be the "trough" in the earnings reports. However, the guidance is for only slow improvement, and it looks like some traders are impatient. As for me, the current yield is 3%, and I expect the company to aggressively pursue other large customers, given that the manufacturing capacity is coming on-line. Any progress on that front would cause a pop, in my opinion. In the meantime, I think the yield justifies holding. With many micro-caps selling close to highs with big PE's, WSCI may be the best kind of opportunity to get value and income, which was the original thesis....it only looks better now.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1207881/comments?source=feed#comment-15859541 15859541
This may be a restriction of your broker. The trade described is an actual trade in our non-IRA account. IRA accounts require full stock value.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> Tue, 05 Mar 2013 10:46:40 -0500
This may be a restriction of your broker. The trade described is an actual trade in our non-IRA account. IRA accounts require full stock value.

Thanks for reading my article.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1207881/comments?source=feed#comment-15602841 15602841
I generally like to have a target for a stock when I go long. I maybe adjust the target as facts develop over time, but I need to have very compelling reasons not to take some money off the table once the target is achieved. I usually sell too soon, but I will give you three old Wall Street sayings that might help:

"You take the top ten percent and the bottom ten percent and I will take the 80% in the middle..."

"No one ever lost money by selling at a profit..."

"Sell after it doubles and play with the house money..."

There are a variety of technical factors to give hints about the overpriced nature of a stock, but one could write a book on those.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2013 17:59:45 -0500
I generally like to have a target for a stock when I go long. I maybe adjust the target as facts develop over time, but I need to have very compelling reasons not to take some money off the table once the target is achieved. I usually sell too soon, but I will give you three old Wall Street sayings that might help:

"You take the top ten percent and the bottom ten percent and I will take the 80% in the middle..."

"No one ever lost money by selling at a profit..."

"Sell after it doubles and play with the house money..."

There are a variety of technical factors to give hints about the overpriced nature of a stock, but one could write a book on those.

Hope this helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1133541/comments?source=feed#comment-15416681 15416681
I like GSJK and own it.

Since this article it has raised the distribution and provided guidance to indicate maybe further increases:

"Given our improved financial results in 2012, we increased our quarterly distribution to $0.42 per outstanding unit for the fourth quarter of 2012. On the basis of this financial guidance, we expect that we can achieve quarterly distributions of at least $0.42 in 2013."

Also, I think it has room to grow in Latin America. The Mexican federal budget gets about 1/3 of revenue from PEMEX, its nationalized oil company. Production has been declining and I think that finally the Mexican government will realize it needs to invest in increasing production. For capital appreciation, one might prefer the general partner, Tetra Tec (TTI), which owns a majority interest in Compressco. It has good growth and value metrics, but pays no dividend. GSJK had 150% distribution coverage last time I looked, and I think TTI depends on that distribution, so you can probably expect them to continue to try to increase distributions.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> Sat, 23 Feb 2013 12:48:21 -0500
I like GSJK and own it.

Since this article it has raised the distribution and provided guidance to indicate maybe further increases:

"Given our improved financial results in 2012, we increased our quarterly distribution to $0.42 per outstanding unit for the fourth quarter of 2012. On the basis of this financial guidance, we expect that we can achieve quarterly distributions of at least $0.42 in 2013."

Also, I think it has room to grow in Latin America. The Mexican federal budget gets about 1/3 of revenue from PEMEX, its nationalized oil company. Production has been declining and I think that finally the Mexican government will realize it needs to invest in increasing production. For capital appreciation, one might prefer the general partner, Tetra Tec (TTI), which owns a majority interest in Compressco. It has good growth and value metrics, but pays no dividend. GSJK had 150% distribution coverage last time I looked, and I think TTI depends on that distribution, so you can probably expect them to continue to try to increase distributions.

Hope that helps,

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1207881/comments?source=feed#comment-15351881 15351881
In an IRA account you have to have 100% of the underlying stock value as margin. In my non-IRA option account I only have to put up 10% on SAND.

Stan]]> Fri, 22 Feb 2013 03:04:26 -0500
In an IRA account you have to have 100% of the underlying stock value as margin. In my non-IRA option account I only have to put up 10% on SAND.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1207881/comments?source=feed#comment-15276491 15276491
In the past two years it has been helpful to us to monitor AUQ as a representative of specifically small to mid-size Canadian miners. We mostly deal with those size firms. GDX is a better representation of larger global miners. "Benchmark" probably was not the correct word.

Having said that, you are correct that watching any single company will at times distort the action due to company-specific situations.

Thanks for reading my article.]]> Wed, 20 Feb 2013 16:56:50 -0500
In the past two years it has been helpful to us to monitor AUQ as a representative of specifically small to mid-size Canadian miners. We mostly deal with those size firms. GDX is a better representation of larger global miners. "Benchmark" probably was not the correct word.

Having said that, you are correct that watching any single company will at times distort the action due to company-specific situations.

Thanks for reading my article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1181581/comments?source=feed#comment-15062801 15062801
I will keep snooping around for some goodies. These unknowns are pretty risky normally, but if you are looking long-term, they often play out well.

Stan]]> Fri, 15 Feb 2013 16:55:13 -0500
I will keep snooping around for some goodies. These unknowns are pretty risky normally, but if you are looking long-term, they often play out well.

Stan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1181581/comments?source=feed#comment-15062621 15062621
For freelance writers, it is not very profitable to write about obscure little companies, because nobody goes to those companies' web pages anyway. I do not really expect to make a lot of money on my writing. I have noticed when I did a newsletter in the 1980's that my investment analysis becomes more clear to me as I write out the pros and cons for a stock, so the articles develop naturally. I just try to add some creativity so readers will stick with it to the meaty part of the investment rationale.]]> Fri, 15 Feb 2013 16:52:06 -0500
For freelance writers, it is not very profitable to write about obscure little companies, because nobody goes to those companies' web pages anyway. I do not really expect to make a lot of money on my writing. I have noticed when I did a newsletter in the 1980's that my investment analysis becomes more clear to me as I write out the pros and cons for a stock, so the articles develop naturally. I just try to add some creativity so readers will stick with it to the meaty part of the investment rationale.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1181581/comments?source=feed#comment-15062241 15062241
I am skeptical of every stock I seriously look at. You may have surmised from this piece that I have been burnt by some seemingly transparent managements in my day, and you cannot avoid that completely in this game.

To answer your question, the numbers for Compton may be inflated, but those were not prepared by MFC. I am probably more curious about the Pea Ridge Mine property that was acquired last year. Seems that there was a lot of excitement and then nothing. I do know that getting an official resource assessment takes time, as well as feasibility studies. I am a long-term investor, so I am not in a big hurry to see the Pea Ridge investment play out, but for now the MIL investors or taking a leap of faith on that one. I did not include that in the article as I simply am not expecting anything form that in the near future, and if there is short-term good news it will be a bonus.

If there is an area to question the accounting it is in the acquisitions; however, the core businesses are pretty transparent and profitable, and those alone justify the dividend and current valuation. ]]> Fri, 15 Feb 2013 16:45:26 -0500
I am skeptical of every stock I seriously look at. You may have surmised from this piece that I have been burnt by some seemingly transparent managements in my day, and you cannot avoid that completely in this game.

To answer your question, the numbers for Compton may be inflated, but those were not prepared by MFC. I am probably more curious about the Pea Ridge Mine property that was acquired last year. Seems that there was a lot of excitement and then nothing. I do know that getting an official resource assessment takes time, as well as feasibility studies. I am a long-term investor, so I am not in a big hurry to see the Pea Ridge investment play out, but for now the MIL investors or taking a leap of faith on that one. I did not include that in the article as I simply am not expecting anything form that in the near future, and if there is short-term good news it will be a bonus.

If there is an area to question the accounting it is in the acquisitions; however, the core businesses are pretty transparent and profitable, and those alone justify the dividend and current valuation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1103021/comments?source=feed#comment-14813351 14813351
I am expecting a good 4th quarter earnings report to be issued pretty soon. Although the 4th quarter is normally a slow quarter, it seems the knife sales are taking off well at places that sell guns. I think the value, dividend and stability of the company has made this a pretty good place to park some money. I have plenty of more flashy stocks in the portfolio, so there is a place for this one.]]> Sun, 10 Feb 2013 12:41:45 -0500
I am expecting a good 4th quarter earnings report to be issued pretty soon. Although the 4th quarter is normally a slow quarter, it seems the knife sales are taking off well at places that sell guns. I think the value, dividend and stability of the company has made this a pretty good place to park some money. I have plenty of more flashy stocks in the portfolio, so there is a place for this one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1133541/comments?source=feed#comment-14588071 14588071
Thank you for the good information and for reading my article.

We have a "hold" posture on WRLS after the last earnings report. It gets harder to maintain the growth rate as it gets bigger, and the price has risen to expectations. However, as an income stock for long-term, we like WRLS because the recurring revenue pretty much guarantees good cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Frankly, I am not overly disturbed about the selling. If you look at the link you sent, you will see that the insiders sold heavy last February and did not sell a single share until November...not exactly selling "throughout the year." I am not sure the motives or the reason for the February 2013 selling, except the insiders may feel their portfolio is over-weighted in WRLS. If history repeats, we may not see any more selling until the end of the year. Also, the salaries for the executives in the company are not as large as many public companies ($35K for Chairman and less than $600K for highest paid) and the salary structure is rated "low concern." In those cases, the stock proceeds are supposed to make up for the lower salaries.

Having said that, we are still watching the development of the SkyBitz addition, and that is the main reason for our taking a wait and see attitude. So far, it has not been a drag on the company, as we feared in our previous article, but it is still too early to say.

Incidentally, I agree whole-heartedly about the general disappointment all of us individual investors feel about many companies that raise insider perks and dilute as soon as things get good. I am preparing an article on that for Valentines Day with some picks that actually show concern for stockholders.

Thanks for the comment.

Stan]]> Tue, 05 Feb 2013 10:21:12 -0500
Thank you for the good information and for reading my article.

We have a "hold" posture on WRLS after the last earnings report. It gets harder to maintain the growth rate as it gets bigger, and the price has risen to expectations. However, as an income stock for long-term, we like WRLS because the recurring revenue pretty much guarantees good cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Frankly, I am not overly disturbed about the selling. If you look at the link you sent, you will see that the insiders sold heavy last February and did not sell a single share until November...not exactly selling "throughout the year." I am not sure the motives or the reason for the February 2013 selling, except the insiders may feel their portfolio is over-weighted in WRLS. If history repeats, we may not see any more selling until the end of the year. Also, the salaries for the executives in the company are not as large as many public companies ($35K for Chairman and less than $600K for highest paid) and the salary structure is rated "low concern." In those cases, the stock proceeds are supposed to make up for the lower salaries.

Having said that, we are still watching the development of the SkyBitz addition, and that is the main reason for our taking a wait and see attitude. So far, it has not been a drag on the company, as we feared in our previous article, but it is still too early to say.

Incidentally, I agree whole-heartedly about the general disappointment all of us individual investors feel about many companies that raise insider perks and dilute as soon as things get good. I am preparing an article on that for Valentines Day with some picks that actually show concern for stockholders.

Thanks for the comment.

Stan]]>