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  • Home Ownership Remains Near Its Interim Low  [View article]
    Isn't it funny how market bears always talk about "reversion to the mean" when it comes to stock market P/E ratios, but when you see this homeownership chart, it is clear that the homeownership levels during the bubble were the outliers and we have since reverted back to the mean, yet market bears see this as a bad thing - they think it needs to go back to being an outlier "or else". I don't know how many articles I've read over the past couple years themed "top 10 reasons the housing market will crash soon" with "falling homeownership rates" listed near the top.
    Jan 31, 2016. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate: If You Don't Love It, You Better List It  [View article]
    "I see all my friends rolling in equity and wonder if I just missed the greatest buying opportunity of my lifetime. "

    You might have missed the greatest opportunity to buy houses of your lifetime, but there will be more opportunities elsewhere. Think about the fact that in the early 80s, you could buy treasuries that paid >15%! Most people missed it because they were lied to by permabears. Just learn from your mistake. Remember the arguments the bears were making at the bottom and the lack of logic that they used so that you don't fall for it when the next opportunity comes. Here is an article that happened around the bottom of the housing market. http://seekingalpha.co...
    The article itself is uninteresting, but look at the debate in the comments. See how the permabears try to drum up fear and misinformation to try to convince people to stay away from historical investing opportunities?
    Jan 10, 2016. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate: If You Don't Love It, You Better List It  [View article]
    "we predicted the subprime market crash in 2008"

    That really means nothing if you didn't also predict the rally that happened after it crashed. Otherwise, you are just a broken clock. So what were you saying in 2011-12?
    Dec 27, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November Housing Report: Almost All Great News  [View article]
    Not sure how YOU define "tank", but the way I define it, the housing market has only tanked once in the past 25 years so your friend only has one data point. It takes more than one data point to draw a trend. Maybe you should be doing better due diligence than getting anecdotal information from unqualified sources that tell you what you want to believe. Besides, where do you even see that the "majority" of construction is multi-family? The data Hale posted shows single units at >700,000 and multi-family units at around 550,000.
    Dec 20, 2015. 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Media Was Wrong Again - This Time On Real Estate  [View article]
    But that's because pending home sales is spot on when it is bearish. But anytime it is bullish, that is because it is cooked data. We're actually several years into a housing market crash but we don't know it because the government is controlling our perceptions with radio waves. A quality aluminum foil hat will protect your thoughts so that you too can see the housing market crash that Kranzler has so accurately described over the past several years.
    Dec 20, 2015. 02:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • November Housing Report: Almost All Great News  [View article]
    "While many people claim the formation of new households and pent-up demand drives this construction I beg to differ. Many houses in my area are empty or under leased."

    I personally prefer data over anecdotes, but anecdotally speaking, I'm following 3 different markets and they are all doing pretty well.
    Dec 20, 2015. 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Media Was Wrong Again - This Time On Real Estate  [View article]
    I haven't been following Markos' stock advice, but mentioning one recommended stock that is down is pretty irrelevant to overall performance unless that is the only stock he recommended. I have been reading Markos' articles on real estate for the past several years and his information has been pretty accurate.
    Dec 20, 2015. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Good News' In Housing Starts Has A Dark Side  [View article]
    Yeah, isn't it funny how if you dig just a little bit (or no digging needed with this guy), every single housing bear is a gold bug? What is it about gold that makes people want to irrationally trash every other investment? Maybe it is required to be a member of the cult, like some religions require people to go door to door.
    Oct 23, 2015. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Per Square Foot Show Affluent-Centered Market, Not Bubble 2.0  [View article]
    Existing homes aren't even back to 2006 prices and we've had INFLATION since then, so how could inflation adjusted prices possibly be in a massive bubble compared to 2006?
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Per Square Foot Show Affluent-Centered Market, Not Bubble 2.0  [View article]
    A shortage of qualified buyers? How about shortage of houses! THAT is what is driving home prices. If there was a shortage of buyers, housing prices would be plummeting, not going up.
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • August Existing Home Sales Drop 3 Times Faster Than Expected  [View article]
    I think we are starting the normal seasonal slowdown in real estate - existing prices and volume usually drop quite a bit in the winter. These are Dave's golden months where all he needs to do is use dysphemisms like "seasonally cleansed" to claim that any slowdown in the winter means the housing market is crashing and has nothing to do with normal seasonal effects that happen EVERY year. This is also the only time of the year you'll hear Dave mention anything negative about seasonal adjustments. In the spring and summer, seasonal adjustments are perfectly fine, right Dave?
    Sep 25, 2015. 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: The Pent-Up Demographic Demand Is There  [View article]
    1984 was much worse than 2015. The problem is, today young people have all these bearish pundits and ZeroHedge type blogs to feed them doom and gloom. They are too young and naive to realize that they are being SOLD (yes sold, these blogs make money hand over fist lying to you) garbage by con-artists. But if I were to choose a year to graduate, it would be 2015 over 1984 every time. My dad, who was a college graduate with about 10 years management experience was unemployed from 82 to 84 and when he finally found a job, it paid $1000 a month (and even back then, that was pretty crappy). It wasn't until the latter part of the 80s that things started to improve some in the job market. In fact, the unemployment rate only barely got below where it is now in 1989 before it started ticking back up again before the next recession hit. It didn't get back down again to those levels until 1997!
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: The Pent-Up Demographic Demand Is There  [View article]
    Your entire comment is anecdote. The reality is that homes are being built much more slowly than growth in people who want to buy homes. THAT is the reason prices keep going up. This is simple economics. No amount of hand-waving about young people preferring roommates changes that reality.
    Sep 8, 2015. 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: The Pent-Up Demographic Demand Is There  [View article]
    I see 5-8% on rent alone.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop In Mortgage Purchase Applications And Pending Home Sales: Renewed Downturn In Housing  [View article]
    "That is, when the next recession arrives"
    While I think the stock market is due for a correction (so you might get lucky), there is no chance of an "immediate" recession in the US. None of the proven indicators are predicting recession.

    http://bit.ly/1TeHbaw

    http://bit.ly/1WGAVrb

    Also, the ECRI, which has never missed a recession (they did have a false positive in 2012) isn't seeing a recession in the immediate future either. Without a natural correction in the stock market, you may get your butt handed to you. You might anyway because you are operating under a false premise (that a recession is imminent). You may end up holding your short positions right through a correction thinking that is a smaller leg of what is still coming and miss it altogether.
    Aug 20, 2015. 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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