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thiazole

thiazole
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  • New Home Sales: The Price Of Lumber Is Forecasting A Big Downturn [View article]
    I suspect that Dave's followers aren't actual "investors". They are just people who like to hear "bad news" to complement their gloomy views on everything. They are the same people who read ZeroHedge or ShadowStats. You could never successfully invest off of any of this garbage, but it all sounds good to a whiny curmudgeon looking for affirmation.
    May 23, 2015. 03:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales: The Price Of Lumber Is Forecasting A Big Downturn [View article]
    It is humorous to read the titles to his articles: Plunge, fall off a cliff, crash, fraud, manipulated, collapse, the decline will accelerate, report is a farce, plunge, plunge, tanking, etc, etc. Then you look at the actual DATA (for example http://bit.ly/1a3STdJ) and it is normal looking data with an upward trend that has typical noise signals both to the upside and downside. Downward noise gets the negative verbs proving Dave is right, the upward trend is ignored and upward noise is fraud and manipulation. Completely hilarious. It is like reading satire.
    May 22, 2015. 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales: The Price Of Lumber Is Forecasting A Big Downturn [View article]
    My condolences to Dave for the housing starts data that came out today http://bit.ly/1R0Fdpv. I assume "the big downturn" will start next month instead?
    May 19, 2015. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Street Estimates - Underlying Data Still Bearish [View article]
    Ok, Dave - after this data http://bit.ly/1DhTW7g, it is time to tell us how "you can't trust any numbers coming out of the NAR". Or you can just ignore this data and take a hiatus until we see some downside volatility in one of the housing reports, and you could report THAT like it is proof the world is ending.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    Here are a couple of many Dave quotes on Denver:
    "Based on indicators that I'm observing all around the metropolitan Denver area, I fully expect that both existing and new homes sales reports for August [2013] and forward will reflect an abrupt and steep decline." http://seekingalpha.co...

    "Even I'm stunned by the number of new "for sale" signs I've seen pop up all around metropolitan Denver just in the last week.

    You don't list a home for sale in late August unless you really want to get out of it.

    This dynamic is EXACTLY like it was in 2007-2008." http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    "it would have broken through this "resistance" to the upside every single time"

    This is what makes me laugh - he is trying to use market price technical analysis to predict home sales volume. We might as well use ovulation patterns to predict earth quakes. There is no psychological resistance to home sales volume.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    "Outside the large cities, the home builders are in trouble with "existing projects", they have cut prices on homes consistently for the pass few years."

    This sounds very anecdotal to me and it is at odds with the overall data: http://bit.ly/1FFzYJk
    Apr 13, 2015. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    I don't care that much about new construction. New construction is only a tiny fraction of the inventory. I'm referring to existing home inventory. THAT is what drives the housing market. We're still at 4.6 months of supply! And it was 4.9 months a year ago, so the level is FALLING.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    I wasn't shorting housing stocks, but I also didn't own any houses until after the market crashed. Dave may have shorted the market and made money during the crash, but if you look at his history, he's been shorting those same stocks all the way back up, so I have a hard time believing that he's actually made money. I bought multiple houses after the crash which has been documented by my comments here on SA. I've only made money on real estate.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    And do you expect the US population to do this any time soon?

    http://on.wsj.com/1aWeE5x

    If not, then you are comparing apples and oranges.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    First of all, you are utilizing the shill gambit logical fallacy. But ultimately, I'm just stating the facts. The bears are the ones making wild speculations involving Machiavellian conspiracy theories.

    "Today's buyers are trading places with the bubble year's property buyers(now sellers) that prayed for an opportunity to get out from under their financial debacle. "

    Today's buyers are paying significantly less than those who bought during the bubble and they have nearly 10 years of inflation between the peak of the bubble and today, so in real prices, there is no comparison.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    We haven't seen Corelogic's 2015 estimate of current shadow inventory (we're due for it soon, though), but in 2013 it was 2.2 million homes and in 2014 it was 1.7 million homes. Based on that trajectory, it might be 1.2 million homes this year and will be completely insignificant within a couple years.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    Inflation is bumping off of historically low points too. You are also using a housing market bounce off of bottoms that occurred after what was probably the worst housing market crash in US history to make your point. Prices usually bounce after a major crash. The fact that much of the bounce occurred with very high levels of "all cash" buying should tell you that interest rates weren't the major driver. It was low prices that allowed people to pay all cash.
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    Should have been a 100K less based on what? Something Dave or one of his permabear clones said? How have their predictions worked out for you? That was during the epicenter of the worst economic fallout since WWII and the worst housing market crash since the Great Depression. But it wasn't enough for you - just another $100K. Fear and greed, fear and greed. In this case, your fear is also your greed and it bit you. I bet if someone offered you a house in SoCal in 2005 for the that 2009 price which you claim was too high, you would have taken it. But thanks to permabear pundits, you kept moving the goalposts making it impossible for home prices to ever hit a level where you would buy. In other words, if prices HAD fallen another 100K, you wouldn't have bought - you would read the latest Dave bear article saying prices need to come down EVEN MORE, and you would have simply said "they need to fall another 50K".
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    You had it right when you said there is no inventory. So I don't understand how they can "release all that inventory" when there is NO inventory.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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