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thiazole

thiazole
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  • Housing Market Data This Week: False Flag Reports [View article]
    Read it and weep. http://bit.ly/1xupZkx

    Dave has built his entire argument on the supposed coming crash of existing home sales. It is hard to believe that he is still publishing these articles.
    Nov 20, 2014. 03:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Plunge The Worst EVER (In One Ugly Chart) [View article]
    Zerohedge is run by crooks who keep themselves anonymous because if people know who they were (ie, notorious crooks and insider traders) no one wouldn't listen to them. But I agree with you - don't listen to any of those media outlets. I don't. Look at the data and nothing else. Here, bookmark this: http://bit.ly/mVRYtr (click on the plus sign next to the week to expand the whole week). Pay attention to all the economic releases, read and learn about all of them, and draw your OWN conclusions. Then you will realize just HOW crooked the people at Zerohedge really are. Once you see how they only cherry pick the data that backs up the story they are trying to sell (which is decidedly negative, because negative news SELLS and that is all they are interested in is SELLING and making their own money), you will lose interest in their slanted news.

    Do you realize that since its inception that Zerohedge has probably NEVER been right? It was founded in early 2009 with uber bearish news and that was popular then because it seemed like the world was collapsing. But in reality, the markets were bottoming at that time - it was the best time to be BUYING, not selling. So Zerohedge came in JUST in the knick of time to lure a bunch of poor unsuspecting people out of the market at the bottom and KEPT them out with non-stop bearish news ever since, even though several markets have had historic rallies! Zerohedge has probably cost it's collective readers BILLIONS.
    Nov 7, 2014. 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Plunge The Worst EVER (In One Ugly Chart) [View article]
    "I know what you will say; Challenger's data is flawed right? Keep drinking the kool-aid buddy."

    And let me guess - as soon as this volatile data series goes back in the opposite direction again, you'll abandon it. Again, this is classic confirmation bias. You draw your conclusion first, then you then you try to make the data fit - and you'll use any data, no matter how absurd to back it up and cling to THAT data like it is the only data that matters. Just an FYI, just last month Challenger reported that layoffs hit a 14 YEAR LOW. And like you said, according to them, hiring surged from a RECORD amount to a multiyear low, all in one month! Now do you get it? It is an extremely volatile set of data (and there were seasonal factors in play that caused the huge surge in hiring last month that had the opposite effect this month). This data goes in every direction and can only be used over a long period of time to get trends, not as a month by month series. It is used monthly only by charlatans like Zerohedge when they don't have any REAL negative data to report to their own "kool-aid" drinkers - they can always rely on one of the volatile series to be having a down month (right before or after a huge up month - but don't worry, they'll ignore the up months). Remember, the original kool-aid drinkers were part of the fringe group of nuts, not the mainstream. Permabears love to use the term to refer to people who agree with mainstream consensus, but in reality, it is people who follow a cult leader (like the crooks at Zerohedge) and believe anything they say in spite of the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
    Nov 7, 2014. 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Plunge The Worst EVER (In One Ugly Chart) [View article]
    Tell me where I can get a 0.25% interest rate loan. I'll buy treasuries with it and make a killing!

    Interest rates are where they are (the prime rate is 3.25%) because inflation is low. An interest rate of 3.25% when inflation is 1.6% isn't all that extreme. And please don't show me your tin foil hat by providing a link to John Williams' website. If his data was actually correct, a Honda Accord would cost $250,000.

    "Give it up. Your argument holds no water with me."
    Sounds like you are fully engaged in confirmation bias.
    Nov 6, 2014. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Plunge The Worst EVER (In One Ugly Chart) [View article]
    "Stagnant wages. Crushing student loan debt. Corporate layoffs increasing."

    Student loan debt is the only thing you stated that is actually real. Everything else is just fiction. Wages fell during the worst recession in decades, but have been rising ever since http://bit.ly/1s4GSLK. Layoffs are ridiculously low right now. Have you been completely ignoring the initial claims datahttp://http://bit.ly/10OJAcF? Stop reading ZeroHedge and start getting your news from a source with a little more credibility.
    Nov 5, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Plunge The Worst EVER (In One Ugly Chart) [View article]
    He makes a valid point either way. You can't look at unrevised data and compare that to revised data and say the unrevised data shows the largest drop ever. You have to compare unrevised data to previously unrevised data or wait until the revisions are in. I also suspect that we are talking about the largest "absolute" drop in prices, not the largest percent drop. The DJI could fall 500 pts in one day and while that would be severe, it would be nothing compared to a 200 pt drop in one day 30 years ago.

    That being said, new home prices were pretty steep so it wouldn't be surprising at all if new home prices fell. That isn't necessarily (or even likely) damning to the larger existing homes market.
    Nov 4, 2014. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Real Estate Performed Since The Recession? [View article]
    Too bad the "Total Housing Units for the United States" data doesn't exist before 2000.
    Nov 4, 2014. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Refinance Your Fixed Rate Mortgage [View article]
    Why would he waste time even with a $4 million mortgage (the value of his house in Laguna Beach)? Mathematically, it would be equivalent to someone with a net worth of $1 million getting a mortgage on a $66 pair of shoes. Not worth the hassle, even if the interest rates were 0%. No one is going to spend 3 hours filling out paperwork for a $66 loan. It is the same reason he bought a $6.7 million jet - because saving an hour when he takes a trip is worth MUCH MORE than that to him.
    Oct 18, 2014. 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Refinance Your Fixed Rate Mortgage [View article]
    Exactly - why would Buffet refinance his $300K house when he has billions of dollars at his fingertips. The hassle of going to the bank and filling out the paperwork alone would make it not worth his time. He can make a fresh $300K with less effort.
    Oct 17, 2014. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline? [View article]
    I guess I'm just looking at the bigger picture. If the disease can only spread at about 1000 people per week in Africa (where medicine is much like the US 150 years ago and conditions are filthy), how could it gain any traction in the US? We'll see, but I think as healthcare workers work out the kinks in protocol, we'll only see sporadic cases in the US. Maybe no more than 20 who contract the virus in the US by the end of the year. People might initially panic, but they also have a pretty short memory. If things don't keep escalating, people will stop worrying. I think back to the swine flu several years ago - we thought it was going to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans. As soon as it was clear that not that many people were dying, everyone forgot all about it and went on with their lives.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline? [View article]
    I just don't see any reason to panic or over-inflate ebola. For about 6 weeks, the number of cases have increased by only about 1000 per week (of which, about 500 per week are dying) - it is quite linear. Chart it if you don't believe me - the data is at the bottom of this page http://bit.ly/ZE9CnV. The total number of ebola deaths since the discovery of ebola so far is much smaller than the number of Americans alone who will die from influenza this winter. Is anyone in a panic over influenza?
    Oct 15, 2014. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Market Fundamentals Continue To Deteriorate [View article]
    Texas property prices are cheap and Texas doesn't have income taxes. That pretty much makes your point (about Texas anyway) completely moot.
    Oct 10, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Market Fundamentals Continue To Deteriorate [View article]
    Ah, if only people would accept bear claims at face value, your job would be so much easier. http://bit.ly/owfv5d
    Oct 10, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Watch: Home Prices 3% Undervalued, With Few Metros Bubbling Up [View article]
    In general, I agree with you, but I do agree with Trulia that Austin is overvalued (I live there). Austin isn't any nicer than San Antonio which is just over an hour away or Dallas either. Austin real estate is WAY more expensive, though. Consider that Round Rock, which is a major tech hub and part of the Austin metropolis is even quite a bit cheaper than Austin. Yes, Austin is attractive to young liberal hipsters, but they don't actually have any money.
    Oct 10, 2014. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reports Of Housing's Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated [View article]
    "You missed the point as sales drop and inventory goes up it becomes a buyers market and prices are cut to entice buyers."

    Yet none of that is happening, therefore your point is null and void.
    Oct 1, 2014. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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