Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
At the beginning of 2007, Case-Shiller's LA index was around 270 and it had fallen to about 230 by the end of 2007. It is currently 182. Not all that crazy. 182 is a far cry from 270 and even pretty far down from 230. http://nyti.ms/17WvT1O
Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
I'm very bullish on housing, but I do agree that Austin is overvalued. I own a handful of rental houses in Arizona and Colorado, but I live in Austin and am a renter here. Housing just isn't a good value here.
Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
bajjiblow, give me a break. What research should the author have done that would have satisfied you? Should he have personally interviewed "your highness" and thrown out the median data on San Francisco because bajjiblow has cheap rent?
Part 2: Will Array BioPharma Become A Late-Stage Biopharmaceutical Company? [View article]
You seem to have missed the fact that most of their late stage drugs (which aren't a focused group ranging from cancer to diabetes to HCV) are being financed by other companies - not only does that "lack of focus" not cost Array anything, but it pays dividends in the form of milestone payments and royalties.
Jobless Claims: A Positive Barometer, For Now [View article]
"In other words, as you can see in the chart below, the economy tends to start stagnating when claims reach that level. And that tends to be a precursor to economic slowdown."
I made essentially the same point back in 2009 (back when we had a thumbs down feature) and I ended up with about 20 thumbs down for daring to suggest that point: http://seekingalpha.co...
The Second U.S. Housing Bubble Continues To Inflate [View article]
New home sales are a tiny fraction of the total homes sold every year. Existing home prices are still way lower than their bubble highs. That is why the author neglects to mention them. Saying new home prices are single handedly driving a new housing market bubble is pretty dishonest of this author.
Signs The Housing Market Is Starting To Head South [View article]
That's why there is a seasonal adjustment - because that happens EVERY year. Give me a break. Do you make this same argument this time of the year every year?
The Fed's Unintentional Superheating Of U.S. Real Estate [View article]
"With ample IRRs of 20% or more on real estate investments in many of these markets,"
Oh no, your housing bear brothers insist that there are no returns to be made in real estate, isn't that right WSD, BennyProfane, et al. Those of us who are claiming to make decent returns in the housing market are just liars, so the author's claim is false based on housing bear mantra and the housing market couldn't possibly be overheating.
Oh, the paradoxes that bear logic presents. You either have to admit that you were full of it when you were all saying "housing has another 25% to fall" and ridiculing those of us who were buying, or you have to admit that housing still has a lot of head room to go up. Which is it?
Highlights From Today's Report On Existing-Home Sales [View article]
I don't see any examples of the author "fighting the data to say everything was wonderful" in 2007-8. At that time, at best, I see articles with "silver linings" painted on housing market data, but I don't see any outright claims that the housing market was doing well or would be doing well (there is one where he talks about a different article that makes the claim that the housing market would rally in 2009, but he never states that he agrees). I'm curious, though, what data you are talking about that he would be fighting today? I don't see much particularly bad data on housing (any bad data that was worse a year ago isn't really bad since it is improving, so don't use "shadow inventory" or something like that as your example of bad data).
The Biggest Housing Bubble Of Them All [View article]
"Whichever valuation metrics one uses, the inflation adjusted ("real") price of single family homes are the most expensive in history except for the bubble years starting in 2001."
Let's say it is 1995. One at that time could have said: "Whichever valuation metrics one uses, the inflation adjusted ("real") price of single family homes are the most expensive in history except for the bubble years starting in 1987". So I'm guessing 1995 was a bad time to buy real estate? Isn't that the year you like to use to "prove" how overpriced real estate is today (compared to when prices were "reasonable" in 1995)?
The Biggest Housing Bubble Of Them All [View article]
Yep - they made a lot of excuses when the stock market bottomed too: http://seekingalpha.co... And that "the bottom isn't in yet" attitude still prevailed a year later.
Array BioPharma: An Exciting Year Ahead [View article]
You don't have many articles here yet, but from what I can see, you are in an elite group of authors. You are definitely now on my "must read" list. Outstanding article. It's rare to see such a complete article for small-cap biotech companies. I've been following the ARRY news stream for a long time and I think this is the best article ever written on this company.
Again, the 385K number is a snapshot in time. Here is the big picture: http://bit.ly/10OJAcF
As you can see, it is improving, not getting worse, and there will always be people who lose their job every week, even during the best of times. You can't say "hey, a lot of people lost their job last week" or "hey, there were a lot of foreclosures last month compared to the same month a year ago" and use those two single data points as a foundation for "there is no housing recovery". I realize that this is what the permabear authors do (to try to keep everything sounding nice and bearish all the time, even when things are just fine), but you need to seek information from other sources as well to see a clearer picture of what is going on. When money is involved, you're much better off being on the right side of the debate lest you fail to make money or worse, lose money betting on some permabear's ideological rants.
It is realtytracs snapshot, but they also offer the big picture (see the link I provided from realtytrac). Why ignore the big picture and emphasize a snapshot? I know that is what the headline does, but you should dig deeper.
The Biggest Housing Bubble Of Them All [View article]
That is 88K NET new jobs in one month. That is still faster than they are building new homes. You think the percentage of people working affects the ability to buy or rent a home of individuals who HAVE a job?
Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
Trulia's New 'Bubble Watch' Nudges California And Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory [View article]
Part 2: Will Array BioPharma Become A Late-Stage Biopharmaceutical Company? [View article]
Jobless Claims: A Positive Barometer, For Now [View article]
I made essentially the same point back in 2009 (back when we had a thumbs down feature) and I ended up with about 20 thumbs down for daring to suggest that point:
http://seekingalpha.co...
The Second U.S. Housing Bubble Continues To Inflate [View article]
Signs The Housing Market Is Starting To Head South [View article]
The Fed's Unintentional Superheating Of U.S. Real Estate [View article]
Oh no, your housing bear brothers insist that there are no returns to be made in real estate, isn't that right WSD, BennyProfane, et al. Those of us who are claiming to make decent returns in the housing market are just liars, so the author's claim is false based on housing bear mantra and the housing market couldn't possibly be overheating.
Oh, the paradoxes that bear logic presents. You either have to admit that you were full of it when you were all saying "housing has another 25% to fall" and ridiculing those of us who were buying, or you have to admit that housing still has a lot of head room to go up. Which is it?
Highlights From Today's Report On Existing-Home Sales [View article]
The Biggest Housing Bubble Of Them All [View article]
Let's say it is 1995. One at that time could have said: "Whichever valuation metrics one uses, the inflation adjusted ("real") price of single family homes are the most expensive in history except for the bubble years starting in 1987". So I'm guessing 1995 was a bad time to buy real estate? Isn't that the year you like to use to "prove" how overpriced real estate is today (compared to when prices were "reasonable" in 1995)?
The Biggest Housing Bubble Of Them All [View article]
Array BioPharma: An Exciting Year Ahead [View article]
March Employment Report Preview [View article]
As you can see, it is improving, not getting worse, and there will always be people who lose their job every week, even during the best of times. You can't say "hey, a lot of people lost their job last week" or "hey, there were a lot of foreclosures last month compared to the same month a year ago" and use those two single data points as a foundation for "there is no housing recovery". I realize that this is what the permabear authors do (to try to keep everything sounding nice and bearish all the time, even when things are just fine), but you need to seek information from other sources as well to see a clearer picture of what is going on. When money is involved, you're much better off being on the right side of the debate lest you fail to make money or worse, lose money betting on some permabear's ideological rants.
March Employment Report Preview [View article]
The Biggest Housing Bubble Of Them All [View article]