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thiazole

thiazole
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  • What Is Driving Housing Stocks Higher [View article]
    "The real median monthly household income is lower now than it was in 2007."

    Unless real home prices are higher than they were in 2007, this statement is irrelevant.
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Street Estimates - Underlying Data Still Bearish [View article]
    You don't agree with Dave. Dave isn't saying that the housing market is barely keeping afloat. He's saying it is crashing, and based on his articles, the housing market has been crashing for at least a year now. If only his message was "the housing market isn't crashing, but is barely afloat" he wouldn't have so many detractors.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Street Estimates - Underlying Data Still Bearish [View article]
    You gotta love how random the manipulated data is. This month, new home sales are manipulated, but we LOVE LOVE LOVE the NAR, while next month it will be "you can't trust any numbers coming out of the NAR!", but the New Home data will be the gospel truth. Then housing starts will be manipulated the month after that. We need an expert like Dave to guide us so that we can tell who's manipulating what in any given month. It's complicated!
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Applications Confirm The Bearish Signal From Homebuilders [View article]
    " if they even want one."

    They will, eventually. I'm old enough that most of my generation wanted the "American Dream", but I'm young enough that plenty of them didn't.

    My wife who is 39 didn't even buy her first car until she was in her late 20s (not until after she got her PhD and started her first job). She lived the typical lifestyle of kids today. She got her education in major cities where she could walk or take the bus everywhere she needed to go and always lived in an apartment. When she started her first job, she also lived in an apartment that was close enough to walk to work for several years. Eventually she wanted to buy a house. It wasn't until she was in her mid 30s, but she came around.

    I have a handful of friends from high school who were a lot like her as well. Lived in apartments in major cities well into their 30s, but every single one of them except one has bought a house. The one hold out? She's beating her head against the wall trying to buy a house in Denver right now. I know how these people think. It is just immaturity. They like the city in their 20s because it is easy to meet people and it is easy to get drunk at the bar and just walk home. Age and maturity eventually cures this. And it isn't because of family either - most of my friends who went through this phase are still single and don't have a family. I'm sure over time the US could become so congested that it is like Japan and living in a congested city in an apartment is their only choice. But as long as people have a choice, I think most will eventually prefer a house in the burbs over living in a congested city in a tiny overpriced apartment.
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Applications Confirm The Bearish Signal From Homebuilders [View article]
    Dave buffaloes a lot of people. How many people have lost serious money listening to Dave? Dave writes these articles with lots of confidence and certainty. There is never any room in his articles for a different outcome. There is never any "the housing market may continue to climb for another year before the big crash", it is always "the big crash is happening now!" Without people like Civ posting Dave's history, more people might be duped into making bad investment decisions.
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Is Doomed - Part 2: Times Have Changed [View article]
    Yeah, I don't think out of pocket health care expenses are something new.
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Is Doomed - Part 2: Times Have Changed [View article]
    Things that can't be quantifiable have always been a bastion for permabear logic. Remember when the "mysterious shadow inventory" was the reason the housing market was going to collapse? Or the Alt A / option arm reset? They could never quantify exactly how these would hit the market (if they COULD, then they wouldn't have been talking about them because obviously they didn't tank the market).
    Mar 6, 2015. 06:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • House Price-To-Rent Ratios In Major U.S. Markets [View article]
    That house is in a suburb of Denver. The rate of return on rent is ok (about 6.5%), but not awesome. When you add appreciation to that, the return has been decent (>10%). I used to live in that house, or I probably wouldn't have invested there. My houses in the Phoenix area which I bought purely as investment properties are quite a bit more profitable. As of right now, my total return (appreciation + rental profits) for my Phoenix properties has averaged about 25% per year since buying them, and I also own them 100%.
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • House Price-To-Rent Ratios In Major U.S. Markets [View article]
    "My rental is a money pit, plain and simple. I would love to sell it."

    You must have an old house. My oldest house was built in 96 and I probably average around $300 a year in maintenance. But it rents for $1700 a month and I've paid off the mortgage, so maintenance and even insurance (about $1200 a year) and taxes (about $1500 a year) don't make much of a dent in my rental profits. It is hard for me to understand how a person could do anything BUT make money on rental properties as long as they do it right.
    Feb 27, 2015. 11:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bearish Data Behind The Existing Home Sales Report [View article]
    Dave and especially his friend Anthony love to ride the fence and say, "oh, well any bad news proves we are right and any good news just means the market is delusional and about to collapse and that proves that we are right".
    Feb 25, 2015. 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid - Opportunities For Future Growth [View article]
    Homeless people generally don't have any debt. Viva la homeless people!
    Feb 22, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Real Estate Crash [View article]
    Why don't you plot your 30 year fixed rate (ie your proof the government is "propping up houses") against inflation. http://bit.ly/1vLiaTP
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Housing - A 20,000 Foot View [View article]
    Aside from the fact that this article is from 2012, it WAS correct and you are making the same point many erroneously did back then. There is almost no inflation and no expected inflation in the foreseeable future, so why would interest rates go up?
    Feb 15, 2015. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Home Prices, The Rebound Effect Is Over. Long Live Job Growth [View article]
    Your socialist propaganda has nothing to do with this article. Take it somewhere else.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bearish Data Behind The Existing Home Sales Report [View article]
    Ie, classic confirmation bias. These articles from Dave are really bringing back the ghost of Karl Denninger. Here is a classic Denninger article for anyone not familiar with him. http://bit.ly/1Ky9Xcx

    Unfortunately, these kinds of articles are kind of a black eye for Seeking Alpha. When serious investors stumble upon them, it makes them want to look elsewhere for investment information.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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