Seeking Alpha

thiazole

thiazole
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View thiazole's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • House Price-To-Rent Ratios In Major U.S. Markets [View article]
    That house is in a suburb of Denver. The rate of return on rent is ok (about 6.5%), but not awesome. When you add appreciation to that, the return has been decent (>10%). I used to live in that house, or I probably wouldn't have invested there. My houses in the Phoenix area which I bought purely as investment properties are quite a bit more profitable. As of right now, my total return (appreciation + rental profits) for my Phoenix properties has averaged about 25% per year since buying them, and I also own them 100%.
    Feb 28, 2015. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • House Price-To-Rent Ratios In Major U.S. Markets [View article]
    "My rental is a money pit, plain and simple. I would love to sell it."

    You must have an old house. My oldest house was built in 96 and I probably average around $300 a year in maintenance. But it rents for $1700 a month and I've paid off the mortgage, so maintenance and even insurance (about $1200 a year) and taxes (about $1500 a year) don't make much of a dent in my rental profits. It is hard for me to understand how a person could do anything BUT make money on rental properties as long as they do it right.
    Feb 27, 2015. 11:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bearish Data Behind The Existing Home Sales Report [View article]
    Dave and especially his friend Anthony love to ride the fence and say, "oh, well any bad news proves we are right and any good news just means the market is delusional and about to collapse and that proves that we are right".
    Feb 25, 2015. 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid - Opportunities For Future Growth [View article]
    Homeless people generally don't have any debt. Viva la homeless people!
    Feb 22, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Real Estate Crash [View article]
    Why don't you plot your 30 year fixed rate (ie your proof the government is "propping up houses") against inflation. http://bit.ly/1vLiaTP
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Housing - A 20,000 Foot View [View article]
    Aside from the fact that this article is from 2012, it WAS correct and you are making the same point many erroneously did back then. There is almost no inflation and no expected inflation in the foreseeable future, so why would interest rates go up?
    Feb 15, 2015. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Home Prices, The Rebound Effect Is Over. Long Live Job Growth [View article]
    Your socialist propaganda has nothing to do with this article. Take it somewhere else.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bearish Data Behind The Existing Home Sales Report [View article]
    Ie, classic confirmation bias. These articles from Dave are really bringing back the ghost of Karl Denninger. Here is a classic Denninger article for anyone not familiar with him. http://bit.ly/1Ky9Xcx

    Unfortunately, these kinds of articles are kind of a black eye for Seeking Alpha. When serious investors stumble upon them, it makes them want to look elsewhere for investment information.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Highly Questionable New Home Sales Report For December [View article]
    "today's house prices are less affordable to most than peak bubble prices were in 2006-7."

    Any actual data to back that up?

    "Second, the economy today has deteriorated substantially from 2003-2007. I won't recite the dreary facts we're all familiar with. Suffice to say, unemployment is not disappearing,"

    I have a shocking news flash for you - unemployment doesn't have much effect on housing prices. EMployment has the major effect and employment numbers have never been higher (around 140 million people now). If we had a huge influx of 10 million new immigrants this year - 5 million with high paying jobs and 5 million unemployed, it would increase the number and rate of unemployment, but would that make housing prices go up or down? Where are those 5 million with high paying jobs going to live?
    Feb 4, 2015. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Highly Questionable New Home Sales Report For December [View article]
    You are only speaking in absolute terms and using real income to rationalize why NOMINAL home prices shouldn't be up - you need to speak in relative terms and keep your data consistent. Home prices still aren't what they were during the bubble http://bit.ly/18GkBwB, so you shouldn't be comparing any other metric from today to then in order to argue that home prices need to come down. They ARE down from then. You do remember that there was a massive housing market crash, right? Since then, prices have come up. So compare the data from the bottom to now and see if anything has gotten better. Are more people employed than in 2009? Check. Have incomes risen since 2009? Check. Have interest rates shot up a bunch? Nope. Is there more inventory? Nope. Is there excess construction? Nope. So what is your point exactly? Everything else has improved since housing bottomed, so it is only reasonable that the housing market has improved as well. This isn't rocket science - it is just common sense.
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Highly Questionable New Home Sales Report For December [View article]
    So the author quotes John Williams as his ace in a hole. Well, if John Williams' inflation numbers are correct, then housing is SUPER cheap! We should all be buying NOW! http://bit.ly/18Ifmlt
    Feb 2, 2015. 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Unaffordability For New Homes In 2014 [View article]
    I think the even bigger issue is that the housing market is very mixed across the country - more expensive houses are being built because building is only occurring in hotter markets where housing prices tend to be higher. There isn't a lot of building going on in Detroit where home prices are cheap. This skews new home prices much higher than existing home prices (existing homes are being bought in sold in every market - good and bad). I bet if you compared new and existing home prices by small regions, the price disparity falls off quite a bit.
    Jan 30, 2015. 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Watch: Home Prices Still 2% Undervalued And Slowing Toward Smooth Landing [View article]
    I think Texas is concerning considering how reliant the Texas economy is on oil prices.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November Existing Home Sales Fall Hard [View article]
    Phoenix has been leading the rest of the housing market. These housing bears insist that a soft landing from higher than usual returns is not a possibility - that everything MUST be either boom or bust. Yet Phoenix has gone from bust to boom to sustainable price growth. If the housing bears were robots from 1940s sci fi, they'd be saying "does not compute, does not compute". It must be difficult having one's entire world view disproven so often.
    Jan 13, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November Existing Home Sales Fall Hard [View article]
    Let's be honest with ourselves. Dave didn't really see any evidence of anything - he just knows about this seasonal trend in inventory and thought he could capitalize on it to push his bias. Dave has never shied away from using negative seasonal trends to infer secular trends in the housing market.
    Jan 8, 2015. 02:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,179 Comments
2,742 Likes