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thiazole

thiazole
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  • New Homes Sales For June Plummet [View article]
    "if wages don't keep up, then what does that mean about the stickiness of home prices?"

    It is an irrelevant question:
    http://bit.ly/1nRSUdp
    Jul 29 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Homes Sales For June Plummet [View article]
    Not only that, but if this "real inflation" was true, then real home prices are at all time lows and the bargain of a lifetime.
    Jul 29 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Homes Sales For June Plummet [View article]
    It is funny that he never mentions this "real inflation" when he is publishing his analyses on home prices.
    Jul 28 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    Here is a good comparison between nominal income and nominal home prices. http://bit.ly/1nRSUdp

    I couldn't get the two Y-axis to be on the same relative scale, but if you do the calculation, you will see that the two have climbed nearly equally since the beginning of the chart. Also, the St. Louis fed chart of home prices is a quarterly index is timed to give the appearance that home prices are still moving at a very fast ramp rate, but in reality they have moderated: http://bit.ly/18GkBwB
    Jul 28 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    "Can you not understand that the rate at which home prices are increasing is far greater than the rate at which incomes are increasing?"

    Using what time period? Are you only using the bottom of the real estate market as your starting point? When you look at the long term trend in real home prices, we are right about where you'd expect: http://bit.ly/1o6vMng (or if that link doesn't work, see the real home price chart in this Calculated Risk blog: http://bit.ly/1o6vOeT)

    Yes, real prices have been gradually rising over the past - is that because of a slow motion bubble or is it just because houses are a lot bigger and property is gradually becoming more and more a scarce commodity?

    "That was not the case in previous periods."
    The 1970s were a bull market in housing (just look at the above chart of real home prices).
    Jul 28 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    "As the author points out, the key is falling real incomes for the mass of Americans. "

    My first thought when I hear that is that no one buys houses or pays rent with "real incomes". They pay with nominal incomes which are at or around all time highs.

    I also hate the argument that real incomes are falling and therefore bad things have to happen. It implies that this is unprecedented, or if it has happened before, housing prices/rents plummeted as a result. But if you look at the historical real income data, there have been many very long periods where real income stagnated or even fell. From 1973-1983, real median household income fell over 5%! In 1983, I'm sure an "Anthony Hernandez" doppelganger said that it would spell doom for the housing market. But then from 1983-2000, real median household income jumped 22%. The housing market didn't collapse in 1983 because real incomes fell a bunch (it did take a moderate hit from a GIANT jump in interest rates combined with a nasty recession) - and the fact that real incomes had been falling for the previous 10 years didn't dictate what they would do over the next 17 years. I actually think we may be poised for another big jump in real income in the US - that is more likely than continuing stagnation. I also don't see any signs of recession any time soon.
    Jul 28 12:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    7 million jobs have been added between June 2011 and June 2014 (ie, 3 years), and if anything, the pace is picking up. Jobs growth is moving at greater than 2 million a year for 3 years straight and accelerating. You can try to cherry pick starting points to minimize that, but that is the reality and is likely the reality going FORWARD. That is the direction we are trying to look in real estate, right? Or are you trying to predict what real estate will do in 2008? If so, you are 6 years late.

    So in summary, >2 million new jobs a year, income is currently rising, there is already a shortage of housing, and housing construction is happening at a much slower pace than jobs growth.
    Jul 27 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    And actually, this is the one that matters anyway. It isn't the size of labor force, but the number of new people actually WORKING. http://bit.ly/1l3gaku
    Jul 26 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    If you don't see growth in that chart, I don't know what to say to you. Let's take out some of the seasonal noise so we can better see what is really happening: http://bit.ly/WUCVBD (and before you point out that job growth is much lower than it was in the mid2000s, housing construction is way lower too).

    Yes, the numbers dipped after the recession, but they are growing now. Why compare to 2006? Because that is when home prices hit all time records and shortly after, housing construction fell off a cliff. So we have 7-8 million more people working now - how many more houses do we have?
    Jul 26 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    Based on the establishment survey, we've had a surplus of over 1.2 million jobs created in the past 5 months. How many homes have been built in the past 5 months? Again, labor participation rates are just a distraction from the important numbers. And don't say "low quality jobs". Incomes are rising right now.
    Jul 25 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rental Income Set To Tumble? [View article]
    Labor participation is such a useless metric for housing demand. Let's talk about the total number of people working and the growth in that number every year vs the total number of houses available and the number being built every year. The numbers spell shortage.
    Jul 25 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Are Historically Overvalued Yet Again [View article]
    The point being, immigrants DO contribute to housing market demand so Anthony is wrong. He'd have you believe they are all homeless.
    Jul 24 09:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Are Historically Overvalued Yet Again [View article]
    Your question is irrelevant. Chinese PhD scientists aren't the only people in this country who get paid well.
    Jul 24 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Are Historically Overvalued Yet Again [View article]
    My history on SA is there for you to see. I'm not a 100 post commenter. You'll notice most permabears don't have a lot of posts to their names. There is a reason for that.
    Jul 24 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Are Historically Overvalued Yet Again [View article]
    You'd be surprised. Legal immigration is a long and expensive process. http://bit.ly/1z8av4X

    "Immigrants represent nearly 28 percent of physicians, more than 31 percent of computer programmers, and over 47 percent of medical scientists."

    Our economy is BASED on immigration. Without it, the "be all you can be by majoring in art" Americans would drive the nation into the dirt.
    Jul 24 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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