Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View thiazole's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Housing Price Mirage [View article]
    Wow, just when I thought you didn't know anything about real estate, you blow me away with this garbage. Are you seriously claiming that every house in the country has just recently had an extra $50K put into them and THAT is why values have gone up? None of my houses have been upgraded since I purchased them and they are appraising for an average of >$70K each more than I paid for them. Appraisers must be on crack I guess, because you couldn't possibly be wrong.

    FYI, there are about 140 million homes in the US, so you are claiming that since 2009, $50K X 140 million = $7 trillion has been spent on home upgrades. Again, what were you saying a while back about business degrees? Don't they require basic math?
    Apr 20 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Price Mirage [View article]
    Your whole thesis is ludicrous. 1. Where are they going to get a better yield than real estate? And don't say stock market. You might as well say lottery ticket. Either you have a stable bond that pays 8+% or you don't have a valid alternative. 2. All cash buyers are buying for the income. THAT is how they eat. Here is a clue for you - let's say you have own 5 X $200K homes, or $1 million in real estate. Now supposedly you can't retire off $1 million, but this would easily provide $80K in net profit per year that will grow with inflation. Could you retire off $80K a year? Stocks won't do that for you which is why seniors who own large amounts of stock panic and sell. All cash real estate is completely different (and don't compare that to the overleveraged bubble condition). So answer your own question about "business degrees". Sounds like you have strong opinions about things that you lack any actual understanding.
    Apr 20 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    CBF is such a jerk for being right the past several years! He's been ridiculed since he started posting articles on SA as being a moron, but if you can tell me where he has been seriously wrong, then I'll admit that HE is the fool here.
    Apr 16 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    How do they feel about their unemployment situation? Yes, when the government gives you stuff (while simultaneously punishing providers ie, making it cheaper - wonder how your life would have been different if the government did that to your profession) it makes you as a consumer feel good, but it is the unintended consequences I'm talking about.
    Here is your link.

    We have the BEST military in the world. So what? Do you think that benefits our economy? Most of these countries barely have a military yet their economies STILL suck more than the US because they've just replaced that spending with socialist handouts.
    Apr 15 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    As you can see, I am probably right. Obamacare will probably fail in the coming years.

    But now we have millions of people who are reliant on this to be insured. We probably can't go back - at least not politically. So the obvious solution will be nationalized health care. See, Obama has pushed us right into European style socialism which we already know doesn't work very well. How many other presidents have done this? None? And that is why Obama is REALLY the most liberal president in history. Not because of his "official" political positions, but because of his ability to force left wing policies onto the nation that no other president has been able to accomplish.
    Apr 10 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprouts recalls peppercorns due to Salmonella risk; shares -1.9% AH [View news story]
    This happens because they are so afraid of "chemicals" that they put raw manure full of nasty salmonella, E. coli, etc on their crops. I've never heard of anyone dying from chemical fertilizer overdose, but about 40,000 Americans get sick and 400 die from salmonellosis every year. But because Americans are so scientifically illiterate, they think chemical fertilizers are the greater risk.
    Apr 6 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    Sorry, I don't listen to talk radio or Fox News or any conservative outlet. I just know that this is the president who has pushed Obamacare down our throats which is designed to fail and (and I'm sure full nationalized medicine will be the fix), he bailed out GM with $10s of billions just for union workers (at the time, a lot of companies were going under that didn't have union workers that were ignored), he's doing this

    Clinton gave lip service, but he wouldn't have taken these measures.
    Apr 5 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    Obama might not take a far left "position" but he has done far more to advance the left agenda than any president in recent history.
    Apr 4 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    Perhaps he means a society that pushes for more socialization even as socialization causes unemployment rates to hit double digits and beyond. Probably should have said "self-destructive" instead of radicalization.
    Apr 4 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    "Ha. That's funny. SW florida used as an example of the "real world"."
    "New Jersey has the most occupied foreclosed homes, and mortgages in trouble. New Jersey. New York is second."

    Ha. That's funny. New Jersey and New York as an example of the "real world".
    It's a big country and New Jersey and New York are hardly representative of the rest of the country. Perhaps because you live there, you don't realize that the rest of the country is nothing like either of those states (politically or otherwise). Maybe Chicago is similar (also a craphole).
    Apr 4 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    It is all just semantics. For permabears, there is no such thing as recovery. I remember arguing that the economy was in recovery mode back in 2010, and the counterpoint from permabears was that GDP still hadn't reached the previous high, therefore there was NO recovery. It has long since reached and far surpassed the previous high, but they still won't concede. Now a bunch of other metrics have to hit previous bests, like the unemployment rate etc before they'll concede (so they say)- and of course, we know that is a terrible metric to use to gauge recovery since we've never since hit the unemployment rate seen in the early 1950s. Does that mean there has been no recovery since the 1953 recession? I've just learned to accept that many people are hardwired to be permanently negative regardless of what the data (and common sense) tells us.
    Apr 2 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Spending Boom [View article]
    Give me a break - there is no "glut of homes on the market". If anything, construction isn't keeping up with demand which is why we've seen home prices jump so much.
    Apr 1 11:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Price Mirage [View article]
    This probably seems counter-intuitive (ie why wouldn't you take a small risk and accept the bid that will net you an extra $20k?), but let's say you are a seller and you get 5 bids ranging from 270K to 300K - the top 3 are bank loans and the last two are all cash. You take the 300K offer. You don't know instantly that the bank is going to ultimately decline the loan. A week later, you find out the bad news (turns out that person had a bankruptcy he didn't disclose), so you go to the next person who already has an offer on another house and is no longer interested, then you go to the next person, wait a week, find out they can't get the loan (they stupidly charged up some credit cards or got a car loan after being pre-approved). Now all of the sudden, all your buyers have offers elsewhere or are no longer interested and you missed your best opportunity. There are only so many people looking to buy your house and you just passed over most of them because your top bid was a bank loan that didn't get approved. Now you might be waiting a while between offers and because they aren't all coming in at once, they are more likely to be low balls. You can see how sellers who have experienced this end up just taking the sure thing.
    Mar 25 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts And Building Permits Miss By A Mile [View article]
    So Blueline, now that February's data has come out, do you have any more comments? Can I assume that since you haven't brought it up yet that there has been a reversal in the data and that January's data was just an anomaly? I don't see any Orlando data, but I do see that Florida in general saw a pretty good pop from January to February as well as from February 2013 to February 2014 thus making just about every point I made above. Why take a single month in an obscure market and make a big deal out of it like that spells the end of the housing market nationwide?
    Mar 20 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The U.S. Housing Market Recovery Will Falter This Year [View article]
    "To argue that there is "housing pent-up demand" is to assume that the present and future generations will have exactly the same"

    From where do you get this rigid requirement? Pent up demand isn't caused by "exactly the same" behavior as previous generations. No two generations are exactly the same. It is like you make up some bizarre rule that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever simply because you know it can't be satisfied and therefore will confirm your bias.

    Here is the reality - homes have been being built at less than half the normal rate for several years now. So all we need for "pent up demand" to further strain supply is for more than half the previous rate of future 1st time home buyers to want to live in a single family home - NOT "exactly" the same number as previous generations.
    Mar 13 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment