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thiazole

thiazole
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  • Home Prices Rise At A Slightly Slower Pace [View article]
    Oh, you mean the housing collapse of 2014? Yeah, that was nasty. I hope we don't get another one of those THIS year. 3 months of a minor downward blip is serious business and proof that the housing bears were right all along.
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Rise At A Slightly Slower Pace [View article]
    It is good to see a quality author publishing an article in the real estate section of SA. Nice unbiased article. I hope you make real estate a more regular part of your repertoire.
    Jul 2, 2015. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Recovery? Nah, It's Just Spiking Mortgage Rates [View article]
    The economy also didn't just start adding jobs last month http://bit.ly/1HhpEbW

    First time home buyers today could be people who were newly employed 3-5 years ago. Remember, 1st time home buyers were practically nonexistant for much of the last 5 years, yet the economy has added millions of new jobs since then.
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Recovery? Nah, It's Just Spiking Mortgage Rates [View article]
    I hate to break it to you, but housing has been in recovery for 3 years. Housing data didn't just start improving last month.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • April New Home Sales, Homebuilder Sentiment And Overvalued Homebuilder Stocks [View article]
    I was just going to say, "we might have a month where ALL the housing data is positive. Whatever will Dave write about?" You answered my question.
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • April New Home Sales, Homebuilder Sentiment And Overvalued Homebuilder Stocks [View article]
    "I am not trading this sector or currently investing in it."

    I think that is the point. The only people who continue to be fans of people like Dave are people who don't actually invest. Try taking his investment advice for a year and see if you still like him...
    Jun 5, 2015. 11:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales: The Price Of Lumber Is Forecasting A Big Downturn [View article]
    I suspect that Dave's followers aren't actual "investors". They are just people who like to hear "bad news" to complement their gloomy views on everything. They are the same people who read ZeroHedge or ShadowStats. You could never successfully invest off of any of this garbage, but it all sounds good to a whiny curmudgeon looking for affirmation.
    May 23, 2015. 03:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales: The Price Of Lumber Is Forecasting A Big Downturn [View article]
    It is humorous to read the titles to his articles: Plunge, fall off a cliff, crash, fraud, manipulated, collapse, the decline will accelerate, report is a farce, plunge, plunge, tanking, etc, etc. Then you look at the actual DATA (for example http://bit.ly/1a3STdJ) and it is normal looking data with an upward trend that has typical noise signals both to the upside and downside. Downward noise gets the negative verbs proving Dave is right, the upward trend is ignored and upward noise is fraud and manipulation. Completely hilarious. It is like reading satire.
    May 22, 2015. 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales: The Price Of Lumber Is Forecasting A Big Downturn [View article]
    My condolences to Dave for the housing starts data that came out today http://bit.ly/1R0Fdpv. I assume "the big downturn" will start next month instead?
    May 19, 2015. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Miss Street Estimates - Underlying Data Still Bearish [View article]
    Ok, Dave - after this data http://bit.ly/1DhTW7g, it is time to tell us how "you can't trust any numbers coming out of the NAR". Or you can just ignore this data and take a hiatus until we see some downside volatility in one of the housing reports, and you could report THAT like it is proof the world is ending.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    Here are a couple of many Dave quotes on Denver:
    "Based on indicators that I'm observing all around the metropolitan Denver area, I fully expect that both existing and new homes sales reports for August [2013] and forward will reflect an abrupt and steep decline." http://seekingalpha.co...

    "Even I'm stunned by the number of new "for sale" signs I've seen pop up all around metropolitan Denver just in the last week.

    You don't list a home for sale in late August unless you really want to get out of it.

    This dynamic is EXACTLY like it was in 2007-2008." http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    "it would have broken through this "resistance" to the upside every single time"

    This is what makes me laugh - he is trying to use market price technical analysis to predict home sales volume. We might as well use ovulation patterns to predict earth quakes. There is no psychological resistance to home sales volume.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    "Outside the large cities, the home builders are in trouble with "existing projects", they have cut prices on homes consistently for the pass few years."

    This sounds very anecdotal to me and it is at odds with the overall data: http://bit.ly/1FFzYJk
    Apr 13, 2015. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    I don't care that much about new construction. New construction is only a tiny fraction of the inventory. I'm referring to existing home inventory. THAT is what drives the housing market. We're still at 4.6 months of supply! And it was 4.9 months a year ago, so the level is FALLING.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market: Myth Vs. Reality [View article]
    I wasn't shorting housing stocks, but I also didn't own any houses until after the market crashed. Dave may have shorted the market and made money during the crash, but if you look at his history, he's been shorting those same stocks all the way back up, so I have a hard time believing that he's actually made money. I bought multiple houses after the crash which has been documented by my comments here on SA. I've only made money on real estate.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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