thiazole's Comments

Are Higher Mortgage Rates Bad For The Economy?

Mon, 17 Jun 2013 14:35:06 -0400

For me, it is interesting to look at the top chart and how small the actual jump in interest rates have been when compared to the exaggerated response from bears. They REALLY want us to believe that it is a really big jump and is going to be the time of reckoning, but it just isn't. It is historically small. Maybe it jumped a bit faster than usual, but so far, we haven't seen a dramatic change in interest rates.

A Canary In Real Estate's Coal Mine

Mon, 17 Jun 2013 09:24:38 -0400

An easier way would be when you click the article, you get just get a preview; maybe 200 words of the article. To read the rest, you have to click "read the rest". Only articles that get that second click get credit. Of course, while this would benefit readers, I think it would hurt SA. The point of SA is to get as many people as possible to open an article and see the ads. They don't want to handicap articles that way by giving readers a preview.

The Scariest Real Estate Chart In All The Land

Sat, 15 Jun 2013 23:03:45 -0400

Home prices are nowhere near where they were in 2006 and interest rates aren't going to spike to 6.5% any time soon. We've had lots of similar spikes in interest rates as we've had recently and it didn't cause the end of the world. In fact, we just had one in late 2010. http://bit.ly/13yhuXu

Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart'

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 17:19:16 -0400

Permabull on bonds - nothing else.

Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart'

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 09:41:00 -0400

Permabears always butcher metaphors. Remember when a few economists correctly identified "green shoots" in 2009? The permabears came back and said they weren't green shoots but "dying brown weeds". So are dying weeds bad? Do we want strong green weeds in the economy? The irony is that they don't even realize how foolish they sound.

The Housing Market "Recovery" Is A Complete Myth

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 12:56:31 -0400

I really have no interest (financial or otherwise) in DHI, but when I look at the chart, it looks like a pattern pullback on its way up. It did the same thing from March to April only to make new highs. Not saying it will do that this time, but you are definitely premature in your celebration.

True Unemployment Is 17.6%, Not 7.6%

Sat, 08 Jun 2013 22:48:49 -0400

I agree - I could never understand why some people think the "true" unemployment level should include people who have jobs. Hey, if we include everyone making less than the median income, we can add another 50% to the unemployment rate (because hey, just like the underemployed, those people aren't making very much money either)! Whoo hoo! The TRUE unemployment rate is actually over 60%!!! Hey, why stop there? How about we give everyone a survey asking if they wish they made more money? Anyone who responds yes is underemployed because they are earning less than they desire. That would make the TRUE unemployment rate at around 100%! Of course, it doesn't make it true.

True Unemployment Is 17.6%, Not 7.6%

Sat, 08 Jun 2013 15:06:40 -0400

Yeah, Markos! Keep writing articles like this and soon people will see you as the next John Williams. Hopefully you still understand that being compared to a crack pot isn't a good thing.

True Unemployment Is 17.6%, Not 7.6%

Fri, 07 Jun 2013 22:31:57 -0400

As an investor, I care much less about what the "real number" is than the direction it is going. If we are losing jobs, then I'm worried. If we are gaining jobs, I'm much less worried.

Time To Short The Homebuilders

Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:04:37 -0400

The author states "Housing still isn't affordable, in fact it is less affordable than it was before the crisis." then shows a chart that indicates that housing is near record affordability. I'm guessing he is misinterpreting the chart?

The Great Reflation

Wed, 05 Jun 2013 23:24:44 -0400

Someone told me that a couple years ago. I wonder if that was you? Either you or maybe j-dub.

Housing Prices Are Being Dangerously Distorted By Big Institutional Money

Wed, 05 Jun 2013 10:09:37 -0400

Where's the evidence that first time home buyers were thriving from 2009-2011? Oh yeah, the economy was too lousy. Funny how cheap prices and the fact that no one has any money seem to go hand in hand. I think they covered that in my high school economics class...

Roubini Turns Bullish - Another Warning Sign?

Wed, 05 Jun 2013 08:40:37 -0400

I completely agree with you except that while I think we are in a smaller cyclical PE expansion that the secular PE contraction hasn't yet ended. See this chart: http://www.multpl.com It is easier to see the trends if you only look at the local minimums in the PE ratio. You have a full cycle (expansion then contraction) from the beginning of that chart to the late 1910s. Then another from there to the late 40s. Then another from there to 1980. You can actually draw a trendline across all the secular PE bottoms (ie, late 1910s, late 40s, 1980) to predict where the PE ratio will finally bottom. It looks like the PE will finally bottom in 3-5 years and the PE will probably bottom around 10-12. Part of that drop in PE will be an increase in E without an increase in P. But I do expect some kind of event will probably need to bring stock prices down a bit between now and then as well.

Roubini Turns Bullish - Another Warning Sign?

Tue, 04 Jun 2013 22:30:30 -0400

"Nouriel Roubini remained skeptical and bearish. We don't fault him for his skepticism: It was warranted, even if we didn't always agree with his reasoning."

You don't get to say "we" when you were a skeptical bear during that same period. When I read your comments back then (like this one: http://seekingalpha.co...) you were expecting the next Great Depression to begin in 2009. In fact, Roubini was probably a bull compared to you.

Housing Prices Are Being Dangerously Distorted By Big Institutional Money

Tue, 04 Jun 2013 22:19:21 -0400

The author makes it sound like such an injustice, yet outside of housing bears it is hard to find anyone who is upset about home prices rising and a greater availability of properties for rent (which keeps rent prices in check).

The Great Reflation

Tue, 04 Jun 2013 21:58:48 -0400

Actually, we're just tired of hearing the permabear broken record. Many of us were arguing against these same bears a couple years ago and the bears were certain housing would just keep crashing. Now that it hasn't, they think we are in a bubble. I also like to argue with people who are wrong. You're a newcomer, but I bet you aren't around in a year to eat your crow.

The Great Reflation

Tue, 04 Jun 2013 09:01:00 -0400

There really aren't enough ARM holders left from 2005 to seriously affect the market (they could stall the market, but they aren't going to cause the market to tank) - and remember, those that are left are the people who have already weathered a storm. There is probably a reason for that.

More Measures Of The Housing Non-Bubble

Mon, 03 Jun 2013 23:14:51 -0400

I've said it before and I'll keep saying (at least until someone proves me wrong): a major reason median new home prices are so high is that new construction is only happening in hot markets. If construction was evenly distributed across the country (ie, in the crappy markets as well as the hot markets) median new home prices would be much lower. I believe as construction continues to ramp up, new home prices will moderate.

The Great Reflation

Sun, 02 Jun 2013 22:07:29 -0400

"Why does “thumbs up” even matter to a poster who doesn't even use their real name? "

Because it proves my point that in the housing permabear community, it isn't about what is true or false, but about affirming the permabear ideology. I don't really care much about it other than it is another data point to consider.

"And we still have more homeowners vulnerable to adjustable rate mortgages than the amount of the entire subprime umbrella."
"For others, who are using all cash.... they are playing with fire."

That is kind of a contradiction, don't you think? People who got ARMs are going to get screwed and people who paid cash are going to get screwed too? Here is an alternate scenario - the oil boom in the US is ramping up so fast that we are expected to have a surplus in about 5 years. During the housing crash, the oil deficit approached a trillion dollars, and in 5 years it will be a surplus, and that will likely end our entire trade deficit and will create a natural expansion of the money supply in the US. You don't think that will have an effect on incomes? Look at history. Personal income runs on a cycle. The flat periods are often more than a decade long and they never result in a housing market crash, and they always make a come back. But some how you think "this time is different".

You know that the home ownership rate has been and continues to fall http://bit.ly/1aTG988. So what does that tell you? I've actually seen permabear articles implying that is bad news for the housing market. Why? Because fewer irresponsible people are being approved for home loans? And all cash buyers are now somehow a risk to the housing market? Why is that? Just because there are more all cash owners than ever before? That isn't a good reason. So here is what we have - an improving economy, fewer irresponsible people owning homes, more people who own homes who paid all cash and won't be affected by interest rates, and interest rates that are so low that affordability is at a record level, yet somehow interest rates going up a little bit so that we aren't quite at record affordability rates will tank the market. That really doesn't add up.

The Great Reflation

Sun, 02 Jun 2013 14:59:58 -0400

"Well to be fair, they took away the "thumbs down" feature, so we'll never know how many people disagree with my take."

Ah, but I can take a pretty good guess from when I'd post on similar articles about the stock market back in 2009. I'd say it wasn't a bear market rally, but the real deal and I'd get my 1 or 2 thumbs up like you see here, then I'd get 10+ thumbs down. Someone like you would post back and get the inverse.

You just admitted that you and the author are playing fast and loose with the facts to bolster your point, and yet you still get lots of thumbs up. What that tells me (and what I already knew) is that guys like Schiff have a cult following. That following, much like the followers who drank the Kool-Aid back in the 70s, doesn't care about what is right and what is wrong - it is all about following "the leader" and in this case, giving thumbs up to anyone who makes any point that agrees with "the leader". If you don't believe me, go to another high profile permabear article and post something bearish, but that is outrageously wrong, and you will see that you still get lots of thumbs up. It isn't about being right or wrong - it is about being a good cult member and pushing "the leader's" agenda.

The Great Reflation

Sat, 01 Jun 2013 15:05:59 -0400

Look how many likes you get for not even knowing your facts (unfortunately, that is the bear way). Please back these claims up with some evidence:

"During the boom, prices nearly tripled in a short time frame. During the crash, they were only allowed to correct by 30%-40% (in most cases) before the intervention was applied. Now prices have roared back to nearly 10% off peak. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out how we got here."

I will agree that the housing market fell 30-40%. The rest of your claims are bogus.

Here is a chart - it is even using nominal data (the only thing different about this chart than charts bears use is that it is the NATIONAL index, not just 10 or 20 cherry picked cities). It doesn't support your claims: http://bit.ly/18GkBwB

The Great Reflation

Sat, 01 Jun 2013 09:13:56 -0400

Ed Lee, it is the same where I live: http://bit.ly/13jTRPf

Mr. Schiff thinks that because there are plenty of houses in Detroit that they should stop building in Austin (and Austin is hardly the only city going through this). How can there be a housing shortage in Austin if there are plenty of houses available in Detroit? Hmmm, does that question really confound you Mr Schiff, or is this just another permabear excuse?

The Great Reflation

Sat, 01 Jun 2013 01:15:50 -0400

Ah, a high profile article from Peter Schiff himself will elicit many posts from the doom and gloom buzz word fan club members. Expect many posts with these words: artificial, bubble, frothy, plunge protection team, exuberance, manipulation, QE infinity, etc.

Don't Listen To Pundits That Overhype The Lumber Price Correction

Fri, 31 May 2013 08:58:26 -0400

And to think I got a post deleted because I suggested some bears are purposefully leaving out charts to try to deceive readers. But without a doubt, ZeroHedge is the worst. When you look into them, you realize that many hide their name (Tyler Durden is a pen name they all use) because they don't want to be discredited by their real names (for example, at least one of the authors and probably the founder was caught insider trading: http://bit.ly/19sNkqe before he resorted to scamming gullible readers).

Is Real Estate Ever A Wise Investment For Retirees?

Fri, 31 May 2013 00:18:46 -0400

"Ask any active landlord and he will tell you of the amazing time commitment required"

Yeah, if you own 50+ properties. I think owning a few properties outright could be a good income producing investment for retirees depending on their financial situation. $500,000 well placed in 3 properties could easily produce $40K a year in rental profit. I spend at most, 10 hours a year managing a property.

A Canary In Real Estate's Coal Mine

Thu, 30 May 2013 23:41:23 -0400

Like I said, I think the argument could be made that it leads the stock market, but not the real estate market. That being said, it has fallen this much several times (we aren't talking about 2008 - we are talking about how much it has fallen over the past couple months) and tends to fall in the spring. Ever heard of the saying "sell in May and go away"? So does this index "predict" the fact that the stock market usually performs crappy this time of year or is it just two things that happen to occur around the same time every year? Maybe I could argue that birds chirping in Canada is the true leading indicator of the stock market - it is too cold for birds until about May, then they chirp until about October. Wow, birds in Canada predict the stock market! Or probably not. That is how I feel about this index - at least when you see moves in this index that are this weak.

As The Housing Bubble Inflates: Month 9

Thu, 30 May 2013 08:30:48 -0400

It's not a bubble. New homes are mostly being built in hot markets (which explains why new home construction levels are still so low). If new homes were built equally across the country, new home prices would be more similar to existing home prices.

The Housing Recovery Is Real

Wed, 29 May 2013 20:40:48 -0400

Actually, you'd be surprised how many houses burn down, get destroyed by tornadoes, hurricanes, landslides or are just torn down and rebuilt. It ends up being counted as new construction, but it isn't really. As I recall, it is >100,000 a year - maybe even close 200,000 a year. Now, ignore starts and look at housing completions to get the number you should be looking at for added inventory: http://bit.ly/18w8R2b
and factor that into the fact that population has been growing at about a million a year. Yes, there was a big surplus several years ago, but construction fell off a cliff even as population continued to grow.

Now consider that most of the construction is in areas where they can't even keep up with population growth, like where I live:
http://bit.ly/13jTRPf

A vacant house in Detroit isn't going to affect the shortage in Austin. There is no excess inventory where it needs to be. The few places that have excess inventory are irrelevant to the rest of the country. They aren't driving home prices.

The Housing Recovery Is Real

Wed, 29 May 2013 09:53:24 -0400

From what I can find, 89% of home are being bought by individuals or families (presumably to live in). That leaves 11% that are likely investment properties of which a small percentage is large investors.

The Housing Recovery Is Real

Wed, 29 May 2013 09:47:22 -0400

"Most of the housing buying is being done by large investors"
That just isn't even remotely close to being true. Show me some actual statistics. I bet large investors make up <5%.