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FrankArabia

FrankArabia
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  • Don't Fall For Herbalife's Latest Shenanigans [View article]
    Michael Johnson is a coward in my opinion. His company is under attack and he sends out his underlings to fight back.
    Nov 26, 2014. 05:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    There certainly is a lot of deception at Herbalife.

    lets clean that up.

    shutting down the company only helps the shorts at this point. Its premature.
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Goodbye $26... [View article]
    If one invests on the premise that they're buying a business, you ought to believe one day you can make a real return somehow someway. DDD has shown that the industry economics is poor simply by the little amount of money they're making. GAAP or Non-Gaap the company's profits are tiny. Until they can turn a meaningful profit, DDD will remain a fan favourite of the Shorts.

    I understand the story takes place in the not too distant future where I can 3D print out a rubber watch if I wanted to....wait...you can't do that yet...ok, you can print out screws and rubbermaid like items to my design specifications and all of a sudden the world will be a better place and the company will have immense profits because 3D is the world leader in this space and they can sell you more and more materials as you integrate printing more things out on your own.
    Nov 24, 2014. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Goodbye $26... [View article]
    how can a short make more than 100%.
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    icahn. The reason they haven't answered is because herbalife is not doing anything illegal. To prove they're a pyramid scheme, you must prove that those signing up are only signing up to sign on other people. That is ridiculously difficult considering you have a whole bunch of people that sign up because they like the product and want to join a cult (also not illegal). They end up losing money then move on with life. Its like getting a lap dance.

    There is a lot of deception that has gone on with distributors but that is not directly the fault of Herbalife.

    If Herbalife wants to continue on, they will have to clean itself up, which is what they're doing and which is why revenues will stagnant for the foreseeable future and why Matt will keep churning out articles calling it a pyramid scheme. Its fun to watch but emotionally exhausting and economically unrewarding to participate.
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    Rogier's point is largely correct in my view.

    The economic structure of MLMs facilitate and incentivizes pyramid schemes.

    I think for the most part MLMs sell product that cannot sell itself.

    However, Herbalife has done an excellent job presenting its product up front and getting people to believe the product is good enough to sell. As a result, people try the business but fail because the economics is not on their side for the most part. Is that illegal? Not in my view.

    For a short thesis to work out, in my view, there has to be a huge degree of certainty in the thesis playing out. You get 50/50 at best here on either side to me.
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    I have watched so many of those summits, and at the end of the day, you can't stop people from going to these extravaganzas, which is why this is a bad short.

    Herbalife sells hope under a well produced cult like environment. However, people like being part of a herd that gives them hope. Outright fraud they're not doing, and anybody caught making false unverifiable income claims should be banned and fined. But Herbalife itself has not come out and made blatantly false statements. There needs to be strict compliance rules enacted (which they have taken a step towards).

    To short this company is to say selling hope doesn't work. It does. Selling hope is a lot like a fund manager like Ackman going on TV talking about his track record when in fact he once went bankrupt with Gotham partners.

    In this world, and especially in the stock market, the weak get taken and there is only so much regulators can do.

    Nov 24, 2014. 03:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow: Misunderstanding Fuels $770 Price Target [View article]
    you might be old but I am right....I might not have much practical experience but I have seen this episode play out before.

    stick to financial planning.

    keep buying zillow. its a free country.
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems +6.2% following Cimatron deal [View news story]
    My broker didn't have any shares available for loan.....today was a great day to get in another short position....
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    they won't shut it down.

    there is fundamentally nothing illegal with what they're doing.

    The people are just too stupid to fall for this.
    Nov 24, 2014. 01:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems to acquire Cimatron for $8.97/share [View news story]
    i'm trying to short more as we speak. love this spike.
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    Stock price won't shoot through the roof in my view even if the FTC doesn't shut it down.

    The fundamentals of this business is poor in my view. I wouldn't long this thing nor would I short it (anymore).

    Especially with its cleaned up policies, the company is facing headwinds regardless. there are far too many other shorts and longs out there i can get into with greater reward/risk profile.
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    Here is my new prediction based on Kim Kardashian analysis: Nothing happens to the stock or the company.

    FTC does not shut this thing down, revenues and earnings slows for the company. The stock languishes around this level for awhile. Matt continues to churn out articles like the way HLF churns out distributors.

    Dead money for the foreseeable future.
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow: Misunderstanding Fuels $770 Price Target [View article]
    you rode the bubble upwards and drank the kool aid believing in your skill.

    this stock is a bubble that will set in shortly and you will feel it in your account.
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Logged-Out Visitors Are A Game Changer [View article]
    Both TWTR and FB are misunderstood.

    The metrics they provide to suggest growth and profitability, users and members, are totally misleading (similar to how in the dot com days eye balls are what mattered right?). They might have millions (billions) of users, but most of the value in their users are worthless. People have FB/TWTR mainly use it for recreational purposes. They ignore ads even more so than on television because their experience requires immediacy.

    These businesses were not set up to for profit maximization. Its a social networking website first and foremost. Now they're running around trying to justify why their valuations worthy. Its not that easy making money in the real world and these "businesses" will find that out very soon. People will listen and patient with you until they don't.

    $200 billion for a website with photos? How many years did it take coke, JP Morgan, General Mills to even get anywhere near that value, and they actually make money hand over fist. Facebook is worth at best in the long term $100 billion and TWTR will likely be acquired as a part of another company as they cannot be a standalone company.

    I'm shorting as much as I can without literally breaking the bank.
    Nov 21, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
586 Comments
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