a.shzad

India's Record Week Displays Emerging Market Strength

"India's Record Week Displays Emerging Market Strength"

I agree that emerging markets are strong but the recent Stock rally was because of the election results. Congress got not just a majority but a clear majority which was not expected.

Congress is the party that is generally credited for recent Indian growth. Another term by Manmohan Singh (this time with more freedom), means more continuity in policy , more stability and hence the rally to adjust the stocks to the new expectations.

New Oil Shock 'Inevitable' - McKinsey

Can we see some more details as to what are the basis for McKinsey claim?

Debit Cards, State-Provided Charge Cards: More Speculation

why not enforce a combined limit?


On May 26 04:38 PM goldbug101 wrote:

> And usually the 30k guy has 6-8 cards, and about 60k in credit card
> debt when he goes bellyup.

Are Emerging Markets ETFs Safer than Their Developed Markets Cousins?

Risk of investing in the Developed Countries (US and EUROPE) has increased without comparable return. So developing/emerging markets are looking more attractive despite the risks.

In current situation, one should identify the right countries to invest in. e.g. export dependent countries (whether of goods or services) are likely to suffer if they dont have sizable local markets.

Similarly, right time of entry is important. Lets hope one is not already to late with respect to China and India.

Why not hold a diversified portfolio of ETFs (or bonds or stocks) in the even lower tier. The neglected/feared markets...
Mexicos , Argentinas, Czech? ... Iceland!? Pakistan!?

Diversified enough portfolio could fetch a handsome return if managed with diligence...

Dividend Investing vs. Trading

Price of a stock at a particular time is supposed to be representing risk adjusted value for all its future dividends. In other words, market assumes that whatever strategy you may follow you wont be able to get higher returns without facing higher risk.

"Based on numerous studies of individual investors, mutual funds and active managers in general, it seems that over 85% of active traders not only under perform the S&P 500, but also lose a significant amount of money in the process."

Seems kind of odd because every transaction has a buyer and a seller. When 85% of active traders under perform S&P average doesn't this means that some one on the other end of those trades made a profit (and its unlikely to be value investors because they dont trade much as compared to active traders). May be the rest of the 15% made profit equal to combined losses of the 85%. That is the incentive for active trading!

Generally speaking:
active trading= higher volatility in prices + high effect of luck
=higher profits but not across the table
longterm investing = lesser effect of luck
=return in keeping with the market average.

if one wants to match the S&P 500 return there many ways of doing it.. but there are investors who want more.

"During bull markets all investors care about is finding a greater fool to bid their stocks higher, while completely ignoring fundamentals. During bear markets however investors get timely reassurance from their stocks in the form of dividends, which lower investment losses. While capital gains could quickly evaporate and turn into losses, dividends are real cash that is deposited to your brokerage account. Investors could then decide how they plan to allocate it best for their individual needs."

boom= more bull markets = higher expectation of future returns
recession = more bear market = more weight age to the returns in hand

so dividends giving companies maintain their price (more than others) in recession. which is the whole point really.

Gold Not Yet on Gulf Cooperation Council Single Currency Agenda

why invest in that country why not invest directly in gold?


On May 05 10:00 AM yellowhoard wrote:

> Investment would flow like a river in springtime to a country with
> a gold backed currency. The boom in the country with a gold backed
> currency would more than offset the decrease in exports.
>
> Switzerland has been a good example of this. A strong currency allows
> them to manufacture value added goods with inexpensive machinery.

Is Sony Too Big to Be Fixed?

As a general rule when a company reputed for making high quality goods for the brand conscious starts competing on price in other segments its reputation gets effected. Sony defies this common industry trend. It has been able to market a wide range of products targeted towards both high brand conscious and high price conscious segments.
Think of it as Mercedes-Benz been able to market a low priced (low quality) bicycle without hurting the sales of their cars.

I think the recession is revealing this as well other structural flaws of the conglomerate but I will agree with Mark too... the loss is not significant (yet).

Physical Gold Is on the Move

Exactly!

According to my understanding gold bought for hedging/investment makes up only a small part of the volume of gold being traded world wide. About 50% or more being consumed by India and Turkey. Gold is used for jewelry and is traditionally gifted on weddings. These buyers are price sensitive. Meaning they will buy lesser gold if the price is high "in there currency".

There is no law that states that gold and silver will/should remain a universal store for value nomatter what happens. If depression goes further , i think that commodities/necessities will outperform gold by a margin.



On May 15 07:37 PM rockingandrolling wrote:

> Gold will only continue to rise if there are people able to buy it....If
> the world were to sink into a really deep depression gold will actually
> decrease in value as there will be fewer buyers. It may even become
> almost worthless......Real commodities such as food - seeds and other
> items that can be used for barter will be more valuable ....Under
> these circumstances then gold is not a safe haven.

As Oil Goes, So Goes the Euro / Dollar

another way to say the same would be when dollar depreciates other currencies and commodities tend to appreciate especially oil and euro.

Falling Consumer Horsepower and Economic Growth

Very True

I expect that this happens with every downturn
But
because of tools like Wikipedia, i expect that this time the consumer awareness will last for quite a while.

World Diamond Market Is a Scam

"Price" is whatever someone is willing to pay...
If people are buying diamonds at exuberant prices.. so be it.
We know that diamond is just carbon, and also that Hollywood stars are wearing just clothes on the red carpet. However; marketing, presentation and a little bit of price control make the carbon a diamond and clothes ,designer artwork. Most interesting part is when someone buys a diamond... they are not really interested in the shiny white rock but mostly interested in the marketing or the price control. Thats on with most of the luxurious brands.

Oil was never a luxury its price control was nonsensical.

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Prediction one. Stock prices will cease to reflect the “greater fool” mentality and will return to being a function of dividend yields.>> TRUE

Prediction two. sometime in 2010, the Federal Reserve will create and loan out hundreds of billions of fresh dollars to the usual well-connected suspects, instructing them to buy up stocks on the public’s behalf.>> LIKELY

Prediction three. state and local welfare services will be overwhelmed, and by 2012 will have largely collapsed and ceased to function in many parts of the country.>> UNLIKELY (it assumes nobody will be willing OR able to do anything while this is happening)

Prediction four.hyperinflation could take hold. However, comprehensive debt relief via a devaluation of the dollar is even more likely.>> TRUE (with unlimited spending...it should happen eventually... may be even earlier than 2012)


Prediction five. The government will stop pretending that it can finance continuous multi-trillion-dollar deficits on the private market. TRUE

Prediction six. one in three work-eligible Americans will be unemployed, underemployed, or never-employed UNLIKELY (more likely scenario is that wages will drop across the board in real terms... lower purchasing power... commodities climbing in face of luxuries)

Prediction seven. police and other local government workers will turn to wholesale corruption in order to survive. LIKELY corruption should increase.

Prediction eight. Commercial overcapacity will strike with a vengeance. By 2012, thousands of enclosed malls, strip malls, unfinished residential developments, motels, truck stops, distribution centers, middle-of-nowhere resorts and casinos, and small-city airports across America will turn into dilapidated, unwanted, and dangerous ghost towns. With no economic incentive for their maintenance or repair, they will crumble into overgrown, plywood-and-sheet-rock ruins. POSSIBLE (may be they will still function but not like now)

Prediction nine. the housing market in many parts of the country will lock up completely. UNLIKELY (some locking can take place but eventually someone will be willing to occupy these houses and the banks will have to settle for the price that they are willing to pay)


Prediction ten. , President Obama, having come to power at the dawn of this crisis, will be blamed for it by over 50 percent of the population. UNLIKELY (i feel some of the predictions may be made up in order to reach round number -10)

A Summary of Q1 Bank Earnings: World, You Just Got Hustled

Question arises whether the intention behind this was bad (i.e. fraudulent officials, lobbyists, bankers are trying to make money) ?

its very unlikely that Fed doesn't realize whats going on. Either they are in on the deal or else...thats their plan to get the stock market / economy moving.

We all know Fed is pumping in money with the intention of restarting the economy. I think AIG concessions and Accounting Rule change is intended. Buyers are back and in the worst case they will last till the support from Fed (in various forms) remains.