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  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    I'd feel better if you had shown XLF in 2007-'09 Relative winners.

    In exchange, what is you opinion of ERY, currently.
    Aug 19, 2015. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Markdown: Morgan Stanley's Fragile 5 Become The Troubled 10 [View article]
    Hey Phil,
    How 'bout drilling down to the Stagflation of 1970's?

    We've been swirling down the rabbit hole for so long that I wonder if we remember where we started?
    1- Keynes rule book has a 2nd step. During the good times, PAY BACK THE DEBT!
    The closest american politicians ever came to this was when Clinton's tax increases caused "A SURPLUS AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE". Who remembers that?
    2- The world had a similar problem with large population groups retiring and Spending Less after age 55. Kids were grown, looking for a smaller house, etc.
    They were The Parents of US!, the Baby Boom!
    Who remembers the 1970's? It was a time of Stagflation.
    The 'Bob Hope" generation entered their 'spend less-save more' life stage. OUR Parents!
    It should be clear that the baby-boom is now in the same life-stage. Just a whole lot more people.
    3- Now, our illustrious LEADERS are trying to cover up their mistakes by:
    a- repealing Mark-to-Market rules;
    b- changing Bankruptcy rules to put the banksters first, and;
    c- guaranteeing many TRILLIONS of Derivative Losses through FDIC.
    d- Actually, there's much more. I'm just glad you read this far.
    Conclusion -
    Not one Politician will admit they are helpless to restart Economic Growth.
    They will wait this thing out, just like before.
    Even if it takes 11 to 15 years!
    The effectiveness of monetary policy was FIRST discredited in the late 1970's.
    The persistent attempts to revive growth with easy money continue to lead to stagflation and financial ruin!
    I hope you have a Roth-Ira and are learning about inverse ETFs such as ERY, FAZ and SMDD.

    Thanx for listening.
    Aug 17, 2015. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Mad [View article]
    Thanks, I didn't know that. I thought everybody's tax rates went up.
    So, am I right or wrong on the Demographic thing?

    I always enjoy information from intelligent people!
    Aug 17, 2015. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Mad [View article]
    We've been swirling down the rabbit hole for so long that I wonder if we remember where we started?
    1- Keynes rule book has a 2nd step. During the good times, PAY BACK THE DEBT!
    The closest american politicians ever came to this was when Clinton's tax increases caused
    "A SURPLUS AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE". Who remembers that?
    2- The world had a similar problem with large population groups retiring and Spending Less after age 55. Kids were grown, looking for a smaller house, etc.
    They were The Parents of US!, the Baby Boom!

    Who remembers the 1970's? It was a time of Stagflation.
    The 'Bob Hope" generation entered their 'spend less-save more' life stage. OUR Parents!
    It should be clear that the baby-boom is now in the same life-stage. Just a whole lot more people.
    3- Now, our illustrious LEADERS are trying to cover up their mistakes by:
    a- repealing Mark-to-Market rules;
    b- changing Bankruptcy rules to put the banksters first, and;
    c- guaranteeing many TRILLIONS of Derivative Losses through FDIC.
    d- Actually, there's much more. I'm just glad you read this far.
    Conclusion -
    Not one Politician will admit they are helpless to restart Economic Growth.
    They will wait this thing out, just like before.
    Even if it takes 11 to 15 years!
    The effectiveness of monetary policy was FIRST discredited in the late 1970's.
    The persistent attempts to revive growth with easy money continue to lead to stagflation and financial ruin!
    I hope you have a Roth-Ira and are learning about inverse ETFs such as ERY, FAZ and SMDD.
    Aug 17, 2015. 03:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Is About To Make A Comeback In A Big Way [View article]
    Part of 'Value' is the Products produced by the subject company:
    -Ford and Gilead, no complaints;
    -Microsoft is stroking their faded glory. All the founders have moved on, NEW products are supporting their installed (trapped) base and there are no new Problems crying out for a solution! Also, show us one MSFT product that's better than a competing AAPL, Google, Android product?
    -AAPL is trapped in the dearth of new products conundrum;
    -Micron is racing Intel down to who-knows-where?;
    -GM is doing well because the Govt let them abandon retirement commitments to long time employees. Hve you analyzed their inventory re; Channel-Stuffing?;
    -Airlines will not be happy once Interest rates and Kerosene prices normalize;

    Finally, how will any of these wunnerful companies prosper after the long term financial reporting rules are put back in place? Real GAAP, not Add-backs and Cheap debt to buy in stock.
    Don't forget Mark-to-Market! It was cancelled in 2009, right before the current 6 year 'rally'. Some smart politician could use it to fix a 'current' problem!
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    The author seems to have missed reports of several $100-billion stimulus moves by Bejing.
    These 'recoveries' are not NORMAL.

    Here’s Reuters with more on a "stock rescue" plan that’s all "bark" and no "bite":
    China has enlisted $800 billion worth of public and private money to prop up its wobbly stock markets, a Reuters analysis shows, but the impact of the unprecedented government-orchestrated rescue has so far been modest.
    Public statements, media reports and market data reveal that Beijing unleashed 5 trillion yuan (515 billion pounds) in funds - equivalent to nearly 10 percent of China's GDP in 2014 and greater than the 4 trillion yuan it committed in response to the global financial crisis - to calm a savage share sell-off.
    SOURCE:
    http://tinyurl.com/qyu...


    http://tinyurl.com/pjz...


    China’s Slow landing not in view.
    the magic mix is failing.

    http://tinyurl.com/q8r...
    China’s exports dropped 2.5% in May year-over-year, after falling 6.4% in April and 15% in March. Global demand for Chinese goods is shrinking overall, with some strength in the US, but falling off sharply in the EU and Japan.
    Jul 30, 2015. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite New NASDAQ Highs, Investors Turn To Money Market Funds For The Week [View article]
    You might want to look closely at one of those pictures of dead presidents in your wallet. I doubt any are redeemable in Silver or Gold. They are all NOTES, ie. DEBT obligations. 18 Trillion according to the National Debt meter.Yes, the trend is your friend while yields are going down and Bond Prices are going up.
    Have you seen the postings about China and other countries reducing their holdings of US Treasuries?
    I'm not saying you are wrong, but trends do change . . .
    Jul 27, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Warning Flag Number 3 - Another One Bites The Dust [View article]
    I like your 'Voice of Reason' approach.
    I wish I had access to your indicators back in 2009.
    Jul 17, 2015. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors again warm to oil stocks, sparking surge in equity fund-raises [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/1aSTViP

    SEC rules on how drillers are required to value their reserves is effectively forcing companies to overstate the value of their O&G businesses by nearly two-thirds.
    when Q1 results start to roll in for E&P companies, we should expect to see massive writedowns across the board as industry balance sheets will no longer benefit from calculating PV-10 based on prices the market hasn’t seen in months,
    Mar 7, 2015. 10:22 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Spiral: Residential Solar Versus The Utilities [View article]
    Congress mandated that the Electric company has to buy excess power generated by a home system. That's the Generation part, not transmission. Sorry for the confusion.
    Dec 26, 2014. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Spiral: Residential Solar Versus The Utilities [View article]
    I live near Philadelphia, about 40 degrees N.
    No solar vendor has ever answered my request for a CBA, Cost Benefit Analysis of a roof-Solar system. Is this because they don't want to buy my excess power?. Or am I too far north to be able to recover the investment in a reasonable time frame?

    Houses South of North Carolina seem to have an interesting advantage.

    Your writings w/b more interesting if actual facts were included.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exactly Where We Are In This Cycle [View article]
    How can you say REAL RETURN when Mark-to-Market, Accurate GAAP reporting and EFFECTIVE SEC monitoring are not in use anywhere?

    Go back to your tax coupons and stop wasting our time!
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Anyone Really Surprised By The Fed's Hawkish Tone? [View article]
    I admire thinking Skeptics, no matter what country they are from.

    The Fed has been withdrawing the puchbowl for 7 months. Tuesday Aug 26 may very well be the last over $2 billion POMO day, ever.
    September will be about $15 billion, November will be ZERO!
    http://bit.ly/fcOJWJ

    Yellen's speech was moved from Wed to Fri, I think . . . If true, why would GoodNews be delayed until the market is about to close?

    Perhaps, in some future missive, you could discuss the true market value of the bonds in the fed's 'portfolio'? What would a true Mark-to-Market analysis show?
    Aug 21, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greek Handicaps The Week Ahead [View article]
    The media are all pumping HOPIUM into the air!
    At least Mr Convoluted has the courage to describe the uncertainty he sees.

    You optomists should tell readers why Yellen has moved her comments session from wednesday to friday?
    Yeah, sure! Good news is always held back, close to the Friday close.
    Aug 19, 2014. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Corrections: How Bad Can They Be And What Can We Do? [View article]
    I didn't see anything about the 2007_2009 down draft.
    Are you suggesting we look away?

    Please explain how the current debt problems of today are NOT related to the last crash to S&P 670.
    Aug 1, 2014. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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