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robros

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  • Bad Sentiment In The Sector Offers Great Buying Opportunity For Career Education [View article]
    A few questions,

    1. Does your valuation include the NOLs? Once realized, cfo said they could activate 150 mill as of December 2014. That's over $2 a share.
    2. They also said the restructuring will pay for itself by the way of savings. I imagine an equal amount to the cost will be saved in leases, SGA, headcount and advertising. So any proceeds from sales will impact directly the bottom line.
    3. Do you know what happened to S. Steffey? Nothing was said about his departure. Total silence. Was he fired? Did he just jumped off the ship?
    4. Sale of LCB and hiring of new CEO is taking time.
    5. Finally, what happens to Sandford? Are you ruling out any fines from the government?

    The new ceo is slow in producing news. On the other hand, he appears to be a real educator concerned with the education of his students. That may bode well with the Dpt. of education.
    May 15, 2015. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Career Education's (CECO) CEO Ronald McCray on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I wonder if this is too good to be true.

    At the end of the year they would still have cash in the order of $3 /per share. They would presumably have sold one or some of the 4 assets for sale adding to the cash pile and further reducing expenses and head count. They would have ongoing teach-outs and further reduction in expenses. And enrollment for the profitable University group will continue its march higher.

    Would it be possible to reach profitability this year, adding $2.25/per share in NOLs? How about some accretive real estate transactions?

    Meanwhile, when all is said and done ceco will have a steady $550 mill/year sales (university group) and steady 44 mill net operating income (univ. group) which also presumably could move higher from there.
    May 7, 2015. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie: A New Leaked Treasury Memo Surfaces [View article]
    > that is only 10% ROE pre-tax.

    Think before you write. Walgreens makes 3 cents per dollar sold. Walmart even less. Multi-billion and multi-trillion dollar companies routinely have lower profit margins due to their scale. These are not high-tech, fast-growth small corporations.
    May 4, 2015. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Half Of Freddie Mac's Draws On The US Treasury Resulted From Lower Interest Rates [View article]
    Thank you for the detailed analysis.
    May 1, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie: New Bill Establishes A Secondary Reserve To Protect Capital [View article]
    I am thinking legislators will have a hard time finding excuses to reject it.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie: New Bill Establishes A Secondary Reserve To Protect Capital [View article]
    Again, it is a simple bill. It is very ingenious. There is not much to rehash. That is its beauty.

    It does not kill the Srs.
    It does not touch the warrants.
    It does not restart the companies.
    It does not recapitalize the companies.
    It does not meddle with the Housing Trust funds.
    It does not touch the charters, the business model, the current structure.

    It simply extends the conservatorship telling Treasury/Congress the funds have a priority: the GSEs. Whether for their losses or their potential capitalization program if Conservatorship is ended.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie: New Bill Establishes A Secondary Reserve To Protect Capital [View article]
    No. It's a simple bill.

    It calls for using the reserve only for a capitalization program, already in HERA 08, yet it does not set these funds as capital or assets of the companies.

    The intelligent thing about this bill is that it has found in a very simple manner a way not to be rejected by anybody. It is almost bullet proof. Those for protecting taxpayers (Corkers, Obama, etc.) should like it. Those hating shareholders will find nothing to reject it. Those hating Treasury's pilfering should love it. Those hating the Housing Trust fund will also rest at ease. In addition, ICBA already wrote a letter to Lew in 2014 suggesting the creation of an escrow account so this bill WILL have the support of many, many organizations. It has the potential of having broad support.

    If DTAs get actiavted again, those funds will automatically fall in the reserve. If new settlements are won, those funds too will fill in the reserve. It has a way of protecting the earnings of the companies, for potentially, their own benefit. AND makes a dent on the 3rd amendment. This is the critical part.

    The bill does not interfere with the warrants. Treasury retains the right to exercise them and sell stakes in the open market. What it does, it freezes the Sr. preferred shares. It does not remove them, but it cuts the legs out of those rendering them almost worthless. So this bill will have a much greater impact on the Jr. preferred shares than on the commons. This is why Tim Pagliara is so happy.

    About the only risk is that Congress never reaches consensus and conservatorship continues way more than expected.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie: New Bill Establishes A Secondary Reserve To Protect Capital [View article]
    > Why can't these politicians just put a policy in place that works for all parties?

    Then, that would not be politics.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie And Freddie: New Bill Establishes A Secondary Reserve To Protect Capital [View article]
    It is not a perfect solution. And has also the danger of extending the conservatorship forever. Given that the reserve funds will cover loses and not taxpayers' money Congress will have no rush to come up with a resolution. If they can't now with everybody screaming "no capital", imagine after this bill, if passes.

    But,

    it also has one dramatic effect: it completely removes Treasury's incentive to continue to milk the cow. With no benefits whatsoever, Treasury may rethink matters and wonder about the existence of the 3rd amendment and the Sr. preferred shares.

    Remember, the 2018 "no buffer zone" is still in there as well as the wording not allowing for recapitalization. All of which needs to go before companies can be recapitalized.

    We can win this bit by bit.
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    Awesome, James. Thank you for this article.
    Jan 30, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    Yasta... maybe Common Law VS Civil Law jurisdictions?

    Or try this,
    http://bit.ly/1ygpasM

    When the break up of the system originates. Why? I don't know. The answer is complex, for sure. But I would not be surprised it stems from its origin. Like a DNA inheritance that on top of everything went bad. I would not know about Australia.

    Countries' DNAs are important. Take Haiti. The only country in the world that was emancipated by slaves. Today, the poorest nation in the planet.

    Values, beliefs are at the core of the opportunities a country attracts. These values are very profound and are indistinctly attached to how countries are founded. Each country *develops* its own mind and set of beliefs. Beliefs that can lead to success as much as failure.

    These beliefs lead to narratives. Pay close attention to each countries' narratives. In the US, the land of opportunity... the quest for the american dream, etc. In Argentina, "el que no llora no mama", "el que no afana es un gil", "En Argentina nadie hace la plata trabajando (Barrionuevo)". Learn Tango and you will find most of argentine narratives in there. Things that locals believe and yield certain (negative) results in daily life. Argentines shoot themselves in the foot continually.
    Jan 30, 2015. 07:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    Stevefoder... welcome to the world of Elizabeth Warren.
    Jan 30, 2015. 06:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    || whether Argentina or the United States would become a major world player economically and militarily

    Argentina -and most, if not all latin american countries- was founded, colonized and developed by thieves and thugs looking to loot the place for silver and gold for the Spanish kingdom. The US, instead, was founded by people looking for freedom and hope who also believed that working hard was the way to God. A group with democratic practices and discipline (puritans). These two beginnings are so radically different that whoever compared the US to any latin american country, even with great potential, missed it by a long shot.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:01 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae: Let's Not End The Conservatorship Just Yet [View article]
    I agree with this. I do not know where the notion comes from that Mr. Watt can disregard a contract that specifically requires consent by the other party in order to be modified. I guess this is why Senator Johnson asked FHFA to "engage" Treasury in talks.
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Mortgage Trust: 3 Reasons Why You Should Consider This 7% Yielding REIT [View article]
    || Since interest rates have literally nowhere to go but up...

    I wonder if the Japanese thought the same 20 years ago.
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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