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Don Martin

Don Martin
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  • GM Common Stock Is Worth More than You Think [View article]
    Per the 8-K filed on Thursday:

    The only thing old GM shareholders stand to get as their re-org is currently envisioned are some very cheap warrants. As has been correctly pointed out by other readers, the NOL's will be effectively extinguished in the re-org.
    May 30, 2009. 11:48 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Options Recap [View article]
    General Motors is not weighing down the Dow. The Dow is dollar-weighted. When General Motors disappears, those who only watch the Dow will barely notice.

    Procter Gamble, down 65 cents for the day, had a greater impact on the Dow than General Motors had today.
    May 29, 2009. 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When millionaires say they won't stand being fleeced by tailor-made rich taxes, they mean it.  [View news story]
    Maybe that Arthur Laffer guy was on to something...
    May 28, 2009. 12:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daniel Harrison thinks Dow Jones' new Economic Stimulus Index is a bunch of crock: "Instead of tracking share prices, a really useful economic stimulus index would monitor the earnings of the top 50 stocks which are recipients of the bailout funds. Then we’d have a much better idea of how these companies are performing."  [View news story]
    I can understand being interested in the monitoring of earnings, but the goal of the index is to be a leading indicator. As much as I can relate to Harrison's argument, adding "earnings" to the index would turn it into a lagging indicator.
    May 28, 2009. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM (GM) resumes +17% at $1.34.  [View news story]
    Another good opportunity to dump some calls.
    May 28, 2009. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking details on the proposed GM (GM) UAW deal: UAW health-care VEBA to receive 17.5% of GM stock; UAW VEBA to get warrants, note, preferred stock. (WSJ)  [View news story]
    Great opportunity to short the $2 September calls on GM.
    May 26, 2009. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading the GM Bankruptcy [View article]
    Short the calls. There's not much premium left on them, but the margin requirements on many of them are pretty light, too. I think the best way to play the General Motors bankruptcy is by shorting the September $2 calls. Even if they don't file, it's unimaginable to me that GM will hit $2 this year.
    May 26, 2009. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yale's legendary financial wizard David Swensen says it's time to buy TIPS: "We've had this massive fiscal stimulus... and it's hard to see how that doesn't translate into pretty substantial inflation." Much, much more in Swensen's interview on Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack. More on TIPS from the Treasury.  [View news story]
    I'm no conspiracy theorist, but I can't help but be skeptical about the long-term appeal of TIPS given who gets to calculate the CPI. And that you have the privilege of immediately paying taxes on the non-cash inflation adjustment to principal makes them that much less attractive unless you want to tuck them away in an IRA.
    May 24, 2009. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Yields Will Continue to Rise [View article]
    The easy money shorting Treasuries has already been made in this cycle. I'll still short the occasional OTM call on the 30-year futures, and I don't expect to see the yield on the 30-year under 4% again for a very long time, but I think there is still enough capital destruction coming this year to keep aggregate price levels from getting out of hand.
    May 22, 2009. 05:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment