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Max von Kamir
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5 years as Portfolio Manager 10 years as Equity Sales
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The Dawn Patrol
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  • LCM Dawn Patrol 16.01.13

    Bonjour,

    Expect mixed markets today at the opening on global growth and 4Q12 earnings concerns. Banks to be in focus today with publications from BNY, JPM and GS.

    Today, we'll monitor the poor EU27 car registrations, EU CPI, US CPI, US IP, the NAHB housing market index and the Beige book.

    OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN

    Asian markets
    Nikkei 225 down -217.66 (-2.00%) at 10,661
    Topix down -18.22 (-2.01%) at 888.00
    Hang Seng down -136.52 (-0.58%) at 23,245

    US markets
    S&P 500 up +1.66 (+0.11%) at 1,472
    DJIA up +27.57 (+0.20%) at 13,535
    Nasdaq down -6.72 (-0.22%) at 3,111

    European markets
    Eurofirst 300 up +0.46 (+0.04%) at 1,160
    FTSE100 up +9.45 (+0.15%) at 6,117
    CAC 40 down -10.90 (-0.29%) at 3,697
    Dax down -53.61 (-0.69%) at 7,676

    Currencies
    €/$ 1.33 (1.33)
    $/¥ 88.13 (88.78)
    £/$ 1.61 (1.61)

    Commodities ($)
    Brent Crude (NYSE:ICE) up +0.36 at 110.66
    Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.29 at 93.57
    100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,683
    Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 362.30

    10-year government bond yields (%)
    US 1.83%
    UK 2.04%
    Germany 1.52%

    CDS (closing levels)
    Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.73bps at 99.28bp
    Markit iTraxx Europe +1.26bps at 104.89bp
    Markit iTraxx Xover +6.92bps at 432.96bp
    Markit CDX IG -0.63bps at 88.75bp

    Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit

    HOT STUFF

    Global growth concerns are likely to weigh on the market after the World Bank slashed its economic forecasts for developed nations this year, predicting that the euro zone economy would shrink 0.1 percent.

    CASINO 2012 rev. in-line with est., cut prices in France.

    METRO 4Q Rev. EU19.4b, Confirms 2012 Profit Forecast

    EUROPEAN CAR SALES Fell 16% in Dec. to 838,428, ACEA Says: European FY vehicle sales fell 7.8% to 13.59m units. VW Dec. sales -14.5%. Peugeot Citroen -19%. Ford -27%. Renault -19%. GM -27%. Fiat -18%. Toyota -21%.

    UK BANKS. Britain's banking industry and financial regulator are in talks to establish a cut-off date to end the costly stream of claims from the public relating to banks' mis-selling of payment protection insurance (PPI), the Times reported.

    FIAT. Chrysler, majority-owned by Fiat, said on Tuesday it has agreed to make Jeeps in China with partner Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd, a key step toward its goal of building Jeep into a global brand. Separately, Fiat has asked the government to approve a special lay-off scheme at its Melfi plant in southern Italy so the company can restructure the factory before production of new models starts.

    ENI, SNAM The Italian oil and gas group said on Tuesday it had completed the placement of 1.25 billion euros of bonds exchangeable into ordinary shares in gas transport group Snam. Underlying the bonds are some 288.7 million Snam shares, accounting for about 8.54 percent of Snam capital.

    FINMECCANICA. Italy's state-controlled defense group said on Tuesday that its AgustaWestland unit won a contract to sell eight AW159 helicopters to South Korea for 270 million euros ($360.39 million).

    CURRENT STUFF

    On Europe
    Spain calls for Germany to stimulate:
    Mariano Rajoy has called on Germany and other creditor countries in the eurozone to do more to stimulate growth, arguing that a switch to a more expansionary policy would boost economic recovery across the single currency area. "What is clear is that you cannot ask Spain to adopt expansionary policies at this time. But those countries that can, should," he told the FT. (Financial Times)

    On World growth
    The World Bank has cut its global growth outlook for 2013 from 3% to 2.4%, compared to 2.3% growth in 2012. "A frustratingly slow economic recovery in developed nations is holding back the global economy, the World Bank said" (Reuters).

    On China

    News of a fall in foreign direct investment into China in 2012 added to the gloomy economic backdrop, ahead of Friday's key fourth-quarter gross domestic

    product (NYSE:GDP) data from the world's top metals consumer.

    UPS & DOWNS

    AB Inbev Cut to Reduce From Neutral at Nomura
    Amlin Cut To 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital
    Anglo American Cut To Sell at Societe Generale
    ARM Cut to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein
    ARM Holdings Cut to Neutral From Buy at UBS
    Berkeley Group Raised To Buy From Neutral at BofAML
    Boliden Added To Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs
    Brunello Cucinelli PT Raised to EU14.5 vs EU12.8 at Nomura
    Burberry PT Raised 14% to 1,600p at Berenberg; Confirms Buy
    Campari Cut To Neutral From Buy at Nomura
    Capital Shopping Raised To Neutral VS Underweight at JPMorgan
    Casino Cut To Neutral From Buy at Citi; PT Kept at Eu78
    Catlin Group Raised To 'Outperform' at RBC Capital
    Credit Suisse Raised To Outperform at Macquarie; PT Chf30
    Deutsche Bank Raised To Neutral at Macquarie; PT Eu35.50
    Enagas Raised To Buy From Neutral at UBS
    Ericsson Added To Most Preferred Tech Shrs at UBS
    Ferragamo PT Raised to EU19 vs EU17.5 at Nomura
    Ferragamo PT Raised to Eu21.3 VS Eu19.5 at BofA; Kept at Buy
    Fresenius SE Added to European Key Calls List at UBS
    Inditex Raised To Buy From Neutral at Nomura
    ING Group Cut to Underperform at Macquarie; PT Eu7
    ITV PLC Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    KPN Raised to Buy From Hold at Deutsche Bank
    lloyds Cut To Underperform at Macquarie
    Luxottica PT Raised to EU31 vs EU27.6 at Nomura
    Mediaset Cut To Neutral VS Overweight at JPMorgan
    Mediaset Espana Cut To Neutral at JPMorgan
    Modern Times Group Cut To Underweight From Neutral at JPMorgan
    MTU Aero Engines Exits Credit Suisse Smid Focus List
    Novartis PT Raised 3% to Chf70 at Exane; Kept at Outperform
    PPR Raised to Buy From Underperform at BofAML
    Randstad Holding PT Raised to Eu28 From Eu24 at Berenberg
    Safran Added To Credit Suisse Focus List
    SOCIETE GENERALE Cut to Underperform at Cheuvreux
    Taylor Wimpey Cut To Neutral From Buy at Citigroup
    Tod's PT Raised to Eu94 VS Eu82 at Nomura; Kept at Reduce
    Vodafone Cut To Hold From Buy at Deutsche Bank
    Wolters Kluwer Cut To Neutral From Outperform at Exane

    Société Générale (JPM, Lee) Feedback on analyst dinner with CFO Bertrand Badré
    Société Générale held a sell-side dinner yesterday, hosted by CFO Bertrand Badré. Overall message was relatively optimistic: the economic environment is clearly challenging with ongoing European sovereign deleveraging, however, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer with some positive news, and SG is in good shape and will comply with Basel 3 capital and liquidity requirements in 2013, well ahead of implementation schedule. Legacy assets have been significantly reduced to less than €10bn and the asset disposal plan is now completed with 50bp of Basel 3 Core Tier I improvement achieved.

    European Metals & Mining (JPM, Jamieson) Adjusting estimates post iron ore price update - RIO remains top pick
    J.P. Morgan's Global Commodity team has increased near-term iron ore price forecasts, resulting in a material increase to our earnings forecasts for RIO, BHPB and ENRC, along with a small boost to NPVs. RIO (OW) remains our top pick, and we maintain our Neutral ratings on BHPB and ENRC.

    Europe: Metals & Mining (GS, King) Recovery sparks the rally, but valuations look stretched; Hydro onto Conviction Sell List
    We update estimates for our large-cap mining coverage. Boliden (Buy) is added to our Conviction List, while we downgrade Hydro to Sell and add it to the Conviction Sell List.

    Tags: AAPL, RIO, SCGLF
    Jan 16 10:32 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Dawn Patrol - 12.09.12 - On A Very Important Day, On China. Bernstein Strategy Piece. JPM On Media.

    Bonjour

    Markets flat to up this morning in a eventful day as we'll get the Banking Union proposal, the German vote on the ESM, Dutch elections and the iPhone 5 launch. Asia (ex China) up with stimulating comments from the Chinese Premier. The EURUSD at 1.2873! Gold at 1,737... Today, macro eyes on the EZ IP for July, UK jobless claims, the FOMC meeting starts. Also, Italy to sell bills around 11:00 and Germany to sell bonds around 11:30.

    Hot corporate newsflow :

    - REPSOL said to receive at least 6 offers for LNG assets

    - GLENCORE may near XSTRATA deal prize with Qatar taking back seat

    - VODAFONE investors said to face longer wait for VERIZON dividend

    - LeFigaro reports France ready to open door to shale gas exploratio

    Ups/Downs :

    (Several profit taking recommendations on periph banks fyi) VOD cut to Neutral vs Buy at Nomura, BBVA cut to EW and SAN upgraded to EW at MS whereas ICAP cut to UW, Subsea7 raised to OW at MS, Henkel rated Buy at Berenberg, Assa Abloy raised to Buy at BofA/ML, Bernstein keep OW on XTA, LVMH cut to Neutral at ML, BT pt increased to 300p vs 2500p at CS and VIE pt cut 12% at Barcap, UCG cut to Neutral and ISP to Sell at Citi, WOS cut to Neutral at UBS. JC DECAUX raised to OW vs Neutral at JPM.

    FACEBOOK regained some colours last night as Zuckerberg said that the company is about to make a lot more money on mobile than on its desktop business. The fight for your mobile space is on... And as Apple's new iOS is much more integrated with Facebook, there could be some truth in there. Time to buy FB? I really don't know, I use it with AdBlock.

    CURRENT THEMES

    On a very important day...
    It's the 12th of September... On the menu today: the European Banking Union at 9:00 which will be faced by criticism and will take a while to be approved... Then we have the German Constitutional Court ruling on the ESM and the Dutch elections... And then Apple's launch of my next phone. And it's such a great phone that it will save America (How the New iPhone Could Help Boost GDP - WSJ.com http://on.wsj.com/QEk7PN).

    More seriously, the details of the banking union proposal may be really important as they can help the banking sector to continue to rally. So keep an open eye (the good one) on this. I'll try to update you.

    On China
    Wen Jiabao yesterday said "Be it monetary or fiscal, we still have ample strength" at the World Economic Forum yesterday. We should have more rate cuts going forward as inflation remains stable. But the main question people ask now is where in the world is Xi Jinping? (Chinese Mystery: Where Is Jinping? - WSJ.com http://on.wsj.com/QO3bmL). The next Chinese PM skipped meetings with Hilary Clinton and no one saw him for a while.

    On the iPhone 5
    Will you buy it? It doesn't change a lot frm the iPhone 4s. It's going to be more cumbersome in the pocket. You don't really need a larger screen. The Samsung offering is pretty darn good. It will be faster than the iPhone 4s. So... No you really don't need this new phone. If you want to replace your iPhone 3Gs, then yes. If you use Google, get an Android... Will I get one? Of course...

    OTHER STUFF

    In the FT, Martin Wolf looks back at the situation in Europe and the ECB's OMT plan. He gives Kudos to Draghi, but blames the European politicians for their lack of action and their slow moves. He also admits, that although Draghi probably did the right thing and has strong arguments, he still needs European leaders to act as well, and this may not even be sufficient to save the Euro. What happens if a country doesn't meet the conditions to be lent by the ECB? Then it's too late... Draghi alone cannot save the euro - FT.com http://on.ft.com/QEgVDV

    and this too: Managing a fragile Eurozone | vox http://bit.ly/U77JXo

    STRATEGY

    Bernstein (Zlotnikov) Equity Portfolio Strategies.
    Is it time to Focus on Value Strategies?

    I have to admit, I'm really not familiar with Bernstein strategist, but I find this piece to be really interesting. It makes sense. Here they try to identify areas of the market that have largely discounted the evidence of decelerating economic growth, and could have trading upside in response to monetary or fiscal stimulus.
    They analyse global inventory levels, pricing, growth expectations, and valuation dispersions. Pricing Power is key. In that sense, many other strategists have used the same approach (MS and Citi), but they go deeper by adding inventory and valuation dispersion. Europe is worth looking at because of margins improvement despite top line deceleration and valuation dispersion. Then they give plenty of charts to prove their point and finally two list of stocks to look at...

    A list of Attractively valued Stocks and stocks with Unattractive valuation: bottom 3 within sector on normalised PE, LBO Value or implied RoE...

    In the first list, you'll find (Europe): Deutsche Bank, BP, Total, Nokia (may be not such a great idea...), AstraZeneca,

    EUROPEAN EQUITIES

    MEDIA (JPM, Filippo Pietro Lo Franco). European Media Strategy and Data Watch

    Two key themes with four top picks to play the media sector

    The Media sector is outperforming MSCI EU for a third year in a row YTD (+5%), driven by cyclical stocks (+10%), while defensives have slightly underperformed (-0.3%). We see two key themes with four top picks to play the media sector: i) Ad agencies are less cyclical than perceived and therefore deserve a multiple re-rating (top picks Publicis/WPP); ii) Two restructuring stories which should be less impacted by the macro trends and should provide good cash returns (top picks Reed and Vivendi). We downgrade Informa, Mecom and Xing to N from OW as we see better opportunities elsewhere in each subsector: We prefer Reed to Informa, Moneysupermarket to Xing, and see continued pressure on Mecom ad trends. Following the significant decline in its share price since May 2012, we upgrade JCDecaux from N to OW, which we continue to see as an attractive long term growth story despite short term weakness in ad trends that are likely to persist in H2 12.


    IMPORTANT NOTICE:

    Unless otherwise stated within the attachment, the above information is not determined to be research and is not from LCM Research but it may refer to a research analyst/research report. Unless indicated, these views are the author's and may differ from those of the research department of Louis Capital Markets, LP or its affiliates. We do not represent this is accurate or complete and we may not update this.

    The information contained herein is confidential and is intended solely for the addressee(s). It shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any unauthorized access, use, reproduction, disclosure or dissemination is prohibited. Neither Louis Capital Markets, LP nor any of its subsidiaries or affiliates shall assume any legal liability or responsibility for any incorrect, misleading or altered information contained herein.

    Sep 12 2:38 AM | Link | Comment!
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