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J 457

J 457
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  • Arch Coal: Momentum And Day Trading Have Taken Over The Stock [View article]
    Fliper, nice to see you brought some sanity into the discussion. I'd give ACI as good a chance of NOT filing BK as I would DOW breaking 20,000 this year.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Momentum And Day Trading Have Taken Over The Stock [View article]
    Folks, if you want to lose money, buy ACI. It's that simple. What is difference between JRCC, PCX, WLT, and ANR? They all filed first and will re-org and emerge profitable before ACI and BTU. Even if ACI reaches a deal this Friday they will still have enormous interest carry in a commodity market that has been decimated and keeps falling.

    But if you must own coal, buy CLD, at least they have a chance and better balance sheet.
    Good luck.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Momentum And Day Trading Have Taken Over The Stock [View article]
    $5-$10 range for ACI. Oh really? You'll be lucky if they don't follow ANR in the next 30-60 days, much less come anywhere close to $10. You're leading some desperate longs down a treacherous path with these type comments.

    Even placing ACI in the same sentence as "$50-$100+ stock" is pure wishful thinking hype. Not going to happen until next super-cycle, maybe 2030-2040 if ever. Nothing changes the fact they are over $5 billion in debt and bleeding mm's. The ONLY thing logical for ACI is to file BK and shed the debt. Good luck.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Briian, here, you said it; "WLB is ripe for PE." That's exactly why I always buy protection for the surprise upside event. Never can tell what can happen, and if it can happen it will happen. Just hopefully not with WLB while I'm still around and not before I see a $6 handle. Coal going down hard in the next month. Good luck.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Briian, time will tell. You'll know about ACI in a week. If ACI falls no reason for BTU not to follow.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Daniel, absolutely, I've made that argument for months, ever since James River was first to announce. People seem to want to defend ACI/BTU/CNX for not going BK. One could say they "have to" or "should" BK to remain long-term competitive because almost everyone else in the sector already has. Fact is, PCX, JRCC, WLT, and ANR are ALL still producing AFTER they went BK and re-organized. Those that went BK first will benefit first/most as they emerge debt free and profitable compared to those that have yet to BK (ACI/BTU/CNX) and are still burdened with shouldering BILLIONS in debt/interest expense.

    Now, where does that leave WLB? Will they fight the tide and muddle along, or see this as an opportunity? They have little cash ($30-35mm or so) and roughly $990mm bondholder debt, and several hundred million more in other liabilities. What if interest rates go up? Think the debt markets will be as favorable next time they visit? One energy producer after another has gone BK this year. What amount do they pay in interest expense?

    If you were the CEO Alessi what would you do? What's more important; protect the shareholders/bondholders or protect your employees and keep your $4.6mm a year job? Big decisions, lots of thinking to do....
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Guy's, we're seeing a once in a decade event if not once every generation. Commodities are collapsing. All of them. It's not good at all. You talk ACI cash burn rate, but I say if coal continues to decline what does it matter? Next stop QE4 to ramp up inflation and crush the dollar after China and EU implode. Then, only then load up on your coal/energy stocks. New President. Coal/oil/energy will be in favor again, but not for another 18-24 months and by then the ACI common stock will be a distant memory, along with JRCC, PCX, WLT, and ANR. I think WLB will survive but not even close to $13 a share. Good luck.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Briian, yes I still think $6 on WLB. My prognosis is an absolute massive sell-off in coal between now and end of day next Friday. If you watch the WLB chart today you have block sellers coming in dumping shares. Not good.

    You said you're surprised I'm both long and short; over the years I've learned a few very Very VERY expensive lessons. 1) Rarely do I ever short a stock outright 2) I always buy protection to hedge my potential losses.
    I have many more WLB PUTs than CALLS, but IF there was ever a spike in WLB price (buy-out, activist investor discloses added to stake, Buffet decides to buy coal, Obama decides he likes coal after all, whatever) I will not lose. It's worth it to me to buy the CALLs/protection purely for insurance even if they expire worthless.

    I would say the same to any WLB long. Markets turned upside down today. Coal caught a short-squeeze bid as a sector. Although not so much for WLB. You can buy insurance against downside for a few bucks to hedge your longs and reduce your exposure. To each their own. Good luck.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Ddemuth,

    Yea, the 13d/a ok whatever, but I'm talking recent filing as of since the share price hit $12 or so. If they were buying more the last few weeks their average would be lower. One would think they would need to disclose these purchases since they already own 7%, but maybe not? Right.

    I have both PUTs and CALLs in WLB and expect some movement/volatility over the next 30-60 days. I rarely outright short any equity. I'm too risk-averse. But, I'll try to remember to let you know how it plays out. Watch the calendar for next Friday. We'll see some big news and big moves in the coal sector one way or another. If ACI can't pull it off with the re-org then WLB will likely loose a few points as well. Good luck, hope WLB works out for you.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Briian, yes, ARLP probably best. But I'd still take CLD over WLB because when/if coal prices move upwards CLD will benefit from the price increase where WLB will be held back by the long-dated contracts. Now, when/if WLB drops to $6 a share, well then that might be a better comparison. Good luck. WLB up again today.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Briian, exactly. Long and short at the same time. Either way you can make $. I just need the share price to move big one way or another. This morning ACI and BTU to the moon, but poor ol' WLB can't seem to find a bid. Disappointing. Thought with this SA article all you longs would be buying lot's more today. Show me the money...WLB is the bargain of the week- right?
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Did you see any open market buys from LF Partners? An owner of 7% would be required to file, no? Ok, so unless they added or hedged they are above $13. I haven't read their quarterly, and wouldn't want/need to.

    So, what's your average on WLB? You buying more? Holding? I like to understand different perspectives. Not trying to "advance" any point, this site is purely for entertainment value.

    Go check out the balance sheet of all the coals, like me. CLD is best in class. BTU may have a shot but once again the debt will haunt them. ACI is pure gamble and you'll know on Aug 28 the outcome. Good luck Brian.
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    Ddemuth,

    First off, if you want sophistication don't spend much time searching for it here.

    So, tell us, what's your average on WLB? I spotted the short around $30 or so. Dumped several PUTs for 600-800% gain. Think this will see $6-7 before a rebound. There will be more buying opportunities for the longs.

    Ok so Frischer wrote a letter, just like he did with Shengtai Pharma and Newcastle and MCG. He wants a higher share price and watched WLB tank from $40-$12. But, really, a coal stock in this environment with this administration. Take the $ and dump the energy sector. Writing was on the wall 6-9 months ago when the coal company bonds fell apart. Look at the sector, JRCC, PCX, WLT, ANR....Yes, WLB owns a few power plants, good for them, but they are still in a sector that isn't finding much love from anyone. Oh, except Soros bought $188k worth of ACI shares. He must now like coal...can't make these stories up if you tried.

    I think WLB debt is a problem. You don't. Total liabilities is well over $990mm. Dig deeper.

    Personally I'll remain "short" on WLB. But I also have insurance in case anyone with deep pockets decides to ramp up the price. Let's call it a wide straddle.

    Good luck. Check back often and let's keep this thread alive for a few months. Place your bets.
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal: Private Investor Believes It's A Double, But It's Not Without Risks [View article]
    That "large investor" likely holding from $40+ to $12 and desperately wants to encourage/convince others what a great opportunity they see in WLB. Nice try and sorry for your losses. Since the open letter to CEO the price has continued to tank near it's 52-w low stuck in a downward channel. The bulls tend to glaze over a few fun facts about WLB. They are bleeding tens of millions in losses every quarter. EPS is a disaster. 2 billion in liabilities. The are locked into these long term contracts so even if coal prices increased in 2017 or 2018 they likely won't benefit much. Then there's always regulatory hurdles when increasing power cost in NC. It's a no-win situation. Absolutely no reason, long or short term to own WLB. You should ask yourself; could it eventually join the likes of PCX, WLT, ANR, JRCC with this staggering debt load? I suspect they will return to the debt markets and next time the terms may not be nearly as favorable as before. If or when that happens- take your best guess. Until then, roll the dice, take your chance, and understand WLB might see $6 before it sees $20. Much better more financially secure coal stocks to own- starting with CLD.
    Aug 19, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal is down but not out, Cowen analysts say [View news story]
    WLB. Look out below.
    Aug 3, 2015. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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