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J 457

J 457
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  • Although Quicksilver Resources And Forest Oil Are On A Razor's Edge, They Aren't Undervalued At The Current Levels [View article]
    Direct, I've followed KWK for over two years. While I still own shares the delayed HRB has me on edge. I'm taking Darden at face value when he has informed shareholders he's still working on a significant deal. If they can bring that gas to market with the Discovery LNG spin-off and Campbell Creek deep water port purchase last year then the share price should better reflect actual reserve valuation, in the $8-$10 range. The bondholders (who are typically much more sophisticated than equity traders) are not worried. However the percent of short shares is perplexing as some are no doubt a hedge by the bondholders, but certainly not all. This could be a huge upside surprise in the coming days/weeks if the inevitable short squeeze happens. I'm holding for now.
    Apr 19 11:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    Dave and Oil, most all the majors will NOT pull permit (start) until home is sold and in contract. The days of unending spec homes has ended and was replaced with the "built to order" business model. The starts are more telling, but also look to the cancellation rates increasing. Just left a 2 day builder seminar and there is some confidence, but I don't know where the money will come from to fuel the pent up demand as wages are flat or declining and lending restrictions are still in place. It will all come down to spring selling season and we'll know by April whether or not 2014 will be a good year or not. If the builders stock prices are still at these levels in the next 60 days and we're still seeing declining sales figures it will be the best short opportunity of the last few years. RYL, KBH, MTH top of the list...
    Feb 21 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broad coalition backs Keystone XL oil pipeline, adding pressure on Obama [View news story]
    BNSF hikes capital spending plan 25% to accommodate increased oil...sorry...looks like Keystone will not be built. Uncle Warren knows the answer already and seems confident his rails will prevail.
    Feb 4 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    KWK has Bone Springs and Wolf Camp acreage in West Texas and the Horn River Basin property in B.C. Both will be massive profit producers over time.
    Feb 2 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Quicksilver Is A Buy [View article]
    good points, very bullish KWK especially with the hedge to reduce downside and the upside for the 30% not hedged. They can't have my shares at $3 although they are trying hard to drive this down.
    Jan 10 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Quicksilver Is A Buy [View article]
    short-attack, no more no less. Flushing out stop-losses this past week. Something big happening one way or another.
    Jan 10 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Giovanni,

    Are you still holding KWK or did you already sell?

    What's your position?

    I always prefer reading articles/comments from investors/writers with conviction who are buying the same company they are pumping.

    What do you base a $5.50 price target on? Can you quantify that for us? What % of the resource in Horn River do you think will be converted to reserve? Extraction cost per mmbtu? What about the pipeline application that was denied? Campbell River? Upstream infrastructure impediments? Where does your $5.50 come from- is it purely an arbitrary amount?
    Jan 8 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Yes, but none of these daily fluctuations mean anything. You'll know were close when you see the shorts covering and the volume jump. Maybe KWK will actually catch them off-guard with their announcement and then you'll see an unprecedented epic short squeeze. Longs can dream of that, but as of now this could go either way.
    Jan 8 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Nicolas, welcome. No offense, but I suspect you haven't taken the time to perform thorough DD on KWK. An investor should never invest in any company without first understanding what they are buying. Giovan has no idea about the timing of any announcement. However, I can tell you with an hour of research you'll fully understand the HRB, the resource quantity, and the timeline that has been publicly announced since they first acquired the leasehold. Visit the KWK website. Listen to the last three earnings calls, study the HRB property, and you'll know the timing. If Glenn has met his objective and milestone for this deal, KWK already has clarity, they just havn't made an announcement pending execution of the agreement. I think they already have a MOU. Also you need to understand Barnett. Glenn has said more than once that HRB parallels Barnett. Look at slide show of 2013 earnings calls and you'll see when Barnett was announced in 2013.

    Glenn Darden Qtr 3 2013 conference call:
    "Our focus has been on putting together an integrated long-term solution for our Horn River Basin project. As I said in the earnings press release, we are working on that solution, one that we believe will be very attractive to our shareholders and our partners. We have advanced the ball significantly since our last investor call, and we expect to have clarity on the go-forward structure BEFORE YEAR END." I capped the before year end- that was year end 2013.
    Jan 8 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Market cap around 500mm. What if you added $1.5-2 billion for the Horn River JV. Talk about instant value, as in maybe the stock price would double depending upon the terms.
    Jan 8 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    dcane, I don't think KWK will have any problem with BC approval of terminal, when the time comes. The bigger hurdle will be expanding the pipeline network from HRB to Campbell River which was already declined once before.
    Jan 5 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    ACI, ANR, WLT, CLF, BTU, CLD and maybe high risk JRCC will make it if no BK in next 6 months. My top pick is ACI as I think they have good met and thermal exposure.
    Jan 5 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Last chance to own KWK at these depressed prices. Next week it starts a big move and it won't look back for several months.
    Jan 4 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Yes, I love coal at these prices.
    Jan 4 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Quicksilver Is A Buy [View article]
    Alpha, good comments and all on target. The recent Campbell River deep water port purchase via Discovery LNG supports the theory that KWK is in late stage negotiation with multiple partners wanting to develop HRB. This announcement may come any day and when it does it will set a firm price for HRB and convert those resources to reserves. If value of KWK today is based upon value of 1.5tcf all inclusive, then even a modest 3 tcf reserve from HRB should triple market cap. If HRB parallels Barnett as Glenn has said, it could be a $2 billion dollar deal. That would also amount to nearly 3x current share price. Add in short squeeze and you could end up at $10-$12 in a week. This is a bargain at $3.40 and people will look back to KWK in a few weeks or months and regret not opening a large position.
    Jan 4 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
951 Comments
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