Seeking Alpha

J 457

J 457
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View J 457's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Last chance to own KWK at these depressed prices. Next week it starts a big move and it won't look back for several months.
    Jan 4, 2014. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Yes, I love coal at these prices.
    Jan 4, 2014. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Quicksilver Is A Buy [View article]
    Alpha, good comments and all on target. The recent Campbell River deep water port purchase via Discovery LNG supports the theory that KWK is in late stage negotiation with multiple partners wanting to develop HRB. This announcement may come any day and when it does it will set a firm price for HRB and convert those resources to reserves. If value of KWK today is based upon value of 1.5tcf all inclusive, then even a modest 3 tcf reserve from HRB should triple market cap. If HRB parallels Barnett as Glenn has said, it could be a $2 billion dollar deal. That would also amount to nearly 3x current share price. Add in short squeeze and you could end up at $10-$12 in a week. This is a bargain at $3.40 and people will look back to KWK in a few weeks or months and regret not opening a large position.
    Jan 4, 2014. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Morningstar needs to refresh their outlook on KWK. Bonds not due until 2016 and 2019, bonds at par, meaning the bondholders are not at all worried. Go look at JCP and see what "distressed" really means. Even so they have jumped 40% in last two months.

    32% is insider owned. Two institutions beyond that hold a majority of shares. High short interest. All this combined make a great double or triple candidate in 2014. Might get it sooner than later, and I think it will surprise to the upside much higher than most predict.
    Jan 2, 2014. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Some of these momo stocks defy logic. Be sure to set a tight stop.
    Jan 2, 2014. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The dam breaches: Alabama credit union files first financial services class action against Target [View news story]
    Seriously, pay up to who? This was a criminal act that many retailers and banks have been subjected to the past several years. Maybe you would you settle for a 20% coupon to make you whole? Probably not, but maybe some greasy sleezeball lawyer can help soothe the pain with a few hundred bucks?? Anyone diligent in managing their personal finances is not worried as they would immediately report any theft to their bank and/or simply have a new card issued- like I did. Doesn't take some group of attorneys to do that, unless you're looking for something for nothing.
    Jan 2, 2014. 09:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Short term this will help SBUX margins. Long term oversold conditions can cause price spikes as producers reign in production- see NG movement in 2013. Also market saturation could cause downward price pressure as competition increases. Although I can't say that SBUX really has any competition! GMCR? They should have bought them last year at the lows...
    Jan 2, 2014. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    Takeaway; there is much more upside potential in KWK than SBUX. The potential for SBUX to fall from it's current inflated price is likely, whereas KWK has just started its run and should significantly outperform SBUX in the next several months.

    I put my $$ on KWK.

    2014 will be the year for material/commodity stocks. Time to buy NG producers, the dreaded coal sector, and even a few steel companies.
    Jan 2, 2014. 04:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want Alpha? Buy Quicksilver Resources, Sell Starbucks [View article]
    I'm not in SBUX but do expect a pullback for several reasons, including commodity prices rising into mid-2014 and an overall market pullback as tapering increases. However, I see the authors point that there is little to no upside in SBUX and the probability of a share price decline seems much more likely than a breakout above $85. Whereas KWK is just starting to make a long overdue run to the upside making the probability of large gains much more likely with KWK than SBUX. This is basic risk-reward thesis and KWK is where I have my money and continue to add shares at every opportunity.

    The short squeeze in KWK should be monumental and I expect to see several 10-20% daily gains in the coming weeks- just like today. I'm convinced a favorable Horn River Basin deal could instantly double the price of KWK in a day to $6-$7 range. I think that announcement is very close, and was initially slated to be a 2013 event. Could happen any day knowing KWK has hit ALL their 2013 milestones EXCEPT the HRB JV deal. My opinion is based upon various takeaways from what CEO Glenn Darden reported during last two conference calls and recent LA energy investors meeting.
    Jan 2, 2014. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    KWK is most undervalued.
    Jan 2, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ariad rallies, company to present at conference [View news story]
    Sold ARIA. Put all into KWK, looking for quick double.
    Jan 2, 2014. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Quicksilver Is A Buy [View article]
    The Niobrara acreage will hopefully still pay off even without RSD JV. It might even be better than expected if RDS sells to someone with capital to make further improvements. Last I heard RDS had two new wells approved, but not sure if they started drilling or not.

    Let us know if you ever visit Horn River Basin or Campbell River BC. Or West Texas Bone Springs and Wolf Camp. I hear both those sites are bustling with activity.
    Dec 30, 2013. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Hits $5 On Huge Volume - What's Next? [View article]
    Looking at multiple sectors I agree KWK has immense upside and could be a double in the coming days. This Horn River JV deal could add well north of a billion dollars in value and spark a massive short squeeze. When the news hits it will be a spontaneous spike in price. Note this was to be a 2013 event, so I expect the news to be announced very soon. This deal is the last item on a long list of objectives announced early this year and I'm sure KWK mngt will want to end the year meeting all their goals.
    Dec 28, 2013. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Quicksilver Is A Buy [View article]
    Good article, thanks for writing.

    The Horn River Basin is clearly the near-term catalyst that will ignite the short covering fuse and cause share price to surge. This HRB is arguably one of the largest NG reservoirs in the WORLD. Research XOM in the area. KWK owns 130k acres with a resource of 14 TRILLION CUBIC FEET equivalent of NG. Yes, that's 14 TRILLION. If all is recoverable (KWK are the pros at this type recovery) calculate the profit spread between extraction and selling to Japan at $15mmbtu. Billions...and billions $$$$$. Currently they only value HRB at 105 bcfe reserve. They have the independent third party drill results they just won't disclose anything because of the pending JV bidding process. It's confidentiality protected material. KWK share price now in large part based upon 1.5 trillion CFE all inclusive including Barnett, so if HRB JV is based upon 3 or 4 or 5 TCFE NG, you can see how the JV deal could reach a few billion and the share price could easily double or more.

    Beyond that, you have West Texas with Bone Springs and Wolf Camp. Research those areas as well. Both have been called the hottest new area for oil discovery in the US. If KWK hits oil there, which I think they will, you could see this $3 stock move to double digits and beyond.

    All only my opinions, due your own due diligence. Been long KWK for almost two years- its my largest position.
    Dec 24, 2013. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Quicksilver Is A Buy [View article]
    Barnett, Horseshoe and West Tx assets cover the debt, so I don't think the this is a "insanely high risk reward." The bondholders don't think so either as the bonds have been trading nearly at par for last three months, meaning the risk is low. The HRB JV proceeds go straight to the bottom line. While KWK can't use proceeds to pay down the $1.8 billion debt (due 2016 and most in 2019) they will have enough capital to improve Bone Springs and Wolf Camp. Those may both be rich in oil. The Niarobia JV with RDS could also hit oil. Wells in process.

    I've owned KWK for well over a year. All things considered, they are poised to move up 3-4x from their current $3 share price. I expect the HRB deal alone to double the price to $6 range or above. That announcement could happen any minute, any day, as it was initially anticipated to be a 2013 event. Darden has said three times this year that the HRB deal parallels the Barnett deal with Tokyo Gas ($450mm for 25% stake valuing Barnett at $1.8 billion). So for very quick basic analysis this HRB deal alone could add $1.5-$2 billion value to KWK value. Market cap today is less than $500mm, do the math and you'll see why I would expect at least a double when this announcement happens.

    Other things you all want to research. KWK owns Discovery LNG. They just purchased a deep water channel on the Campbell River in British Columbia. They will take the HRB product and pipe it to the deep water channel LNG facility to export to Japan. This JV will pay for the cost of the terminal. Or at least that's my synopsis of what I think their planning. With Japan and Europe paying $15 per mmbtu and extraction/shipping cost of HRB closer to $3-$4 you can see how KWK stands to profit immensely.
    Dec 24, 2013. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment