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J 457

J 457
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  • Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess.  [View news story]
    Its not only the banks addicted to stimulus, its the people sucking down their fat pensions and free health insurance by billions every year. Let's cut that as well.
    Jun 1 10:11 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We can't just drill our way to lower gas prices when we consume 20% of the world's oil," President Obama says during his weekly address. Obama took the opportunity to advocate for his "all of the above" strategy, that relies less on foreign fossil fuels, and more on: "solar, wind, natural gas, biofuels, and more."  [View news story]
    I take that as; we can't drive 5mpg Hummers and still expect to be energy independent or not pay $5.00 gal.
    Mar 10 03:56 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal: Moving Ahead Despite Challenges [View article]
    stocknerd, either you're not following along, or you're short the coal names. Wake up call...most US electricity comes from...coal. Most global electricity comes from...coal. Global coal use is spiking and has been on the rise for several years. Planned global coal plants are increasing year after year.

    The bigger question should be; why is the current administration "picking and choosing" winners and losers in the energy space? If the same level of funding was provided for carbon capture/improved coal technology as there is for solar and hybrid cars we would be years ahead of other countries.

    What do you have to replace coal with? Nuclear? Solar? Wind? All these combined won't come even close. You take away coal today and the US and world economy ceases. That's a fact. Please do some basic research and have at least a remedial understanding of the topic before spouting your "coal is dead" drivel. Fact is, like it or not, gasoline and coal will be with us for at least another 50-100 years. Maybe you can save us all and invent the next new energy source?
    Jul 17 10:28 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On CNBC, Jon Corzine's spokesperson denies the story attached to the earlier memo about customer funds covering an overdraft at JPMorgan - saying Corzine wasn't told client funds were the ones being used to cover the shortage.  [View news story]
    Steal over 200 mm and nothing happens except a lengthy circus act dog and pony show. Steal a bicycle and your thrown in jail. Something's not right...
    Mar 23 08:40 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The economy is at a "tipping point," with a "substantial" probability the U.S. could lurch again into recession, Robert Shiller says. The economy, now "immune to Keynesian crack," has deteriorated to the point where "when the demand isn't there, you can lower interest rates all the way to zero and people are still not willing to spend."  [View news story]
    Big oil runs the world. Obama, a sad disappointment, promised clean energy but has not delivered. He could force a change to Nat Gas TODAY if it wasn't for the lobbyist pulling the strings.

    I believe dependency on foreign oil is the biggest threat to our national security, more so than terrorists or deficits. Three weeks of no oil and we come to a crawl. Five weeks and we come to a stop. A few months and we cease to exist. Yet, with that level of risk, we still import oil and export LNG. Makes no sense.

    Want good renewable jobs, then offer to pay for (thru tax subsidy/write-off) conversion to Nat Gas for all commercial trucking/transports. That would reduce oil dependency by over 30%, coupled with increased domestic production, and mandate increased MPG for all cars and luxury use tax on all non-commercial trucks/SUV (Hummer etc) and you would cut trade deficit by 50% (250 billion) per year and reduce threat that OPEC, Brazil, Canada is going to hold us hostage for higher oil prices.

    Also, we need CFTC to mandate the number of oil futures contracts purchased by non-transport companies are limited for commercial banks (MS, GS), this coupled with increased margins.

    If "they" wanted to fix this, they would have already done so.
    Jun 15 07:08 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In a press briefing at the White House, President Obama says an agreement on debt limit legislation is a done deal. All that's left are votes in the House and Senate. S&P 500 futures remain about 1.3% higher.  [View news story]
    The American people don't view this as a success, but rather another failure by the politicians to properly balance the budget and debt. Maybe next time they will actually show up at the polls and speak with their votes. But probably not, most are too busy texting and tweeting about Casy Anthony crap.

    The harsh reality is;
    1) This plan puts us further into debt
    2) The unemployment rate is still 9.2%
    3) GDP is at recession levels
    4) State budgets will be decimated with the forthcoming cuts
    5) Big oil and Wall St still retain complete control
    6) 10 years to shave off less than 10% of the debt. That's nothing close to where it needs to be.
    7) We're in big trouble here folks......
    8) Stocks will rally for a few days, but don't be fooled as the reality and severity of our situation will ultimately cometh right quickly. Maybe as early as Aug 5 BLS unemployment report.
    Jul 31 09:04 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: iPhone 6 production, Touch ID, OIS [View news story]
    100k new jobs for China. Maybe a few new corporate marketing jobs for America to roll-out the new device. And does anyone really have to wonder why 50mm people are on EBT and the medium annual wage in America is $27k. Here you have it, another example from the folks at AAPL. Giving away America's wealth as quickly as they can. They are certainly not alone. $600mm to Egypt and new Apaches for the taking..but wait..my son's school is dilapidated, falling apart and "they" say no taxpayer funds to fix it. What's your priority? Let me guess..standing in line to buy the new IPhone6? Sometimes we get what we deserve.

    Jun 23 06:23 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After a 72% Y/Y rise in the XHB, the housing recovery rates the cover at Barron's. "We're in the early stages," says Lennar (LEN) President Rick Beckwith. The industry could triple in size to 1.8M housing starts in the next 3-4 years, says Ivy Zelman, who thinks Lennar could earn $5.30/share in FY15 vs. $0.48 last year. A more speculative play is Beazer (BZH), which isn't yet profitable, but has eased short-term liquidity fears with recent capital raises. [View news story]
    Housing DEAD until 2015 and builder stocks will drop 50% in the next 3-6 months. Earnings NO WAY near current PE. Fools are buying DHI at $20 and PHM at $14 and KBH at $12 and LEN at $33. It will be a trap door drop when Qtr 3 orders drop again.
    Sep 8 11:42 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't look now, but MarketWatch's Rex Nutting says the U.S. debt load is getting better, not worse. It was excessive debt - both private and public - that caused the 2008 financial meltdown. Years later we're still de-leveraging, but it's not as bad as it seems. In the 11 quarters since the recession officially ended, total domestic debt rose by $702B - just 1.4%. By contrast, in the 11 quarters before the recession began, those bubble years of 2005 - 2007, total debt increased by $10.7T - or 28%.  [View news story]
    Never as bad as it seems until you have to pay it back. Don't know what cave this guy lives in but last time I checked we were near 16 trillion in public debt with private debt climbing- see student loan bubble.
    Jun 8 08:33 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's been one month since the S&P 500 hit bear market territory and rallied hard. Since then, market pundits have done an about-face, aggressively distancing themselves from any inkling of bearish sentiment. From a contrarian perspective, this behavior suggests another bear-market rally, says Mark Hulbert. Add to the mix the excessively bullish exposure of short-term market timers and it gets even more ominous. So, Hulbert says, "if it looks like a bear market rally, and smells like a bear market rally, then... ?"  [View news story]
    I've lost all faith in these type analyst. They don't know any better than you or I what will happen next. My thoughts; Europe already in recession as supported by ISM and other recent stats. Slowing growth in Canada, Australia, BRICS (watch China closely) and the US is arguably nearing or already in recession as well.

    US cutting deep in 2012 (debt committee debate coming soon) and those lost govt jobs have yet to be factored into the already high 9.1% unemployment rate. Private firms still cutting as well. This is the necessary deleveraging many have talked about for the last three years. Taking all this into consideration, how can the DOW be only 14% from its sub-prime housing debt HELOC free liquidity 2007 all-time highs? Simple, this thing we now call a "market" (70% of trades are made by HFT computers) have been fueled by everything from TARP to TALF to MBS bond purchases to POMO to FED QE and more taxpayer debt.

    While I can appreciate those "experienced" value investors chasing yield, the day of reckoning will cometh soon and right quickly, and when it does, the exit nor the liquidity will be near sufficient to support the sell-off. For those that watch the ticker closely, remember Oct 3 and Oct 4 when the selling accelerated and some stocks were dropping 15-20% a day. At that pace it wouldn't take more than a half dozen trading days for the DOW to drop below 10,000, and then some.

    Big news from CME tonight on margin requirements- although largely unreported, this could be the black swan event that triggers the next leg down to 1,020.

    For you chartist, we are in a downward trend- as in we have made lower highs and lower lows for last several months. Although the investment funds tried and tried, they never could break-thru or escape the 1,080 range, which, barring QE3 and more FED bond purchases, should translate to a new lower low in Nov or Dec, down below 1,070.

    EU is not fixed. EFSF needs a trillion. They cancelled this weeks bond auction and couldn't raise a mere 5 billion. The world is awash with debt and printing more money will not solve the problem.

    Look under the rug, in many ways this is worse than 2008 because interest rates are already at 0%, we're 15 trillion in debt, we need consumption to drive growth but we have a 1.4 trillion annual deficit (need less spending to balance deficit) and 600 billion annual trade deficit.

    Hold on tight boys and girls, we're entering the uncharted abyss. Let's not even think about Israel and Iran tension, or Pakistan accidentally loosing a nuke or two. I'm not completely bearish, afterall, out of 130mm working Americans we did add a whooping 80k jobs last month. What's that, a few tenths? And that should help the 46mm on food stamps. I also just learned (thanks Bernanke?) I'm now getting a cool .035% on my money market funds (up . 002%) so that should help my fixed income needs for at least a few days.

    We'll get through all this, but first we need to let the free markets work the way intended and correct. Until then, we're simply adding more debt and prolonging the inevitable. Until then, stay nice, help a neighbor, and pay it forward.
    Nov 4 10:27 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Signs The S&P 500 Index Is Headed To 1,790 [View article]
    Come here young man, give me all your gold, and I'll make you RICH!

    S&P 1,790 as gas hits $9.00 gallon, gold is $5,000, and the debt climbs to 25 trillion.

    The sooner we face reality the sooner we fix the structural problems of the country. Be not disillusioned by the "markets" as they are no longer an accurate barometer of corporate health, but rather merely a complex algo program designed to provide liquidity through HFT. When all run for the exits at the same time, many will not get out.
    Aug 31 03:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Senate votes to table the Boehner debt plan 59-41.  [View news story]
    These politicians will never reach a consensus to pass anything to better the American people. And further, the current plan they have is, once again, garbage. It shaves merely pennies off the debt.

    RAISE TAXES on everyone- everyone. Repeal Bush tax cuts (obviously the argument they "create" jobs has failed) and close the corporate off-shore loopholes.

    CUT GOVT SPENDING on everything. Pull out of Iraq/afgan TODAY! I want to see all these DEMS and REPS take the same pay cut as they are proposing to SS/Medi-Care. Further, I want these jokers change their retirement package to ame as SS/Medi-Care just like everyone else.

    CREATE AN ENERGY PLAN. I can't believe we allow the investment bankers to speculate in oil and drive up the price, and we spend 400 billion a year to foreign countries for their and big oil profits. Gee, why do we have a 600 billion a year trade deficit, and why do we indirectly fund the same terrorists (with oil $$) that we spend billions trying to stop- I wonder (SARCASM)! Goldman is now stashing aluminum in warehouses- what the hell! Mandate CFTC limit oil future contracts to any non-oil using business. Switch to Nat Gas as bridge fuel. Increase domestic production after the fracking solution mystery ingredients are known and regulated.

    Its this simple folks. Tell your politicians.
    Monday is going to be a doozy!
    Jul 29 09:53 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect Another Earnings Surprise From Alpha Natural Resources [View article]
    People said the same about homebuilders in 2008 and solar in 2011. Since then we've seen share prices gain 5x-10x from the lows. Rest assured, ANR and ACI and the coal sector is not going anywhere but up from here, and we're talking 3-4x gains at a minimum. In a bad economy less expensive coal will be the preferred source of energy. In a good economy met coal pricing will increase. Either way, you will do good long term with ANR. I also like ANR's RICE holdings and if they diversify further into NG (like CNX) the price will move up significantly. The author overlooked those two variables in forming his "bleak" opinion about ANR. I'm long ANR and will stay long for the swift rebound.
    Aug 14 11:30 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quicksilver's Debt Increases Are On The Fast Track To Financial Failure [View article]
    As usual, another SA "author" with no conviction. If you really think KWK will further decline then why not short it for all your worth? Instead you have no position- so why are you even here? To get a few bucks for the article or because you just like to write about KWK? I don't know and don't care, other than your article cherry picks information to better suite your own personal thesis as opposed to listing ALL the variables.

    KWK is THE best NG pick for 2H13 and 2014 based upon current valuation and risk/reward. With LNG export terminals on line in 2014 you'll see KWK margins significantly improve with increased demand. The debt is due in large part 2019. They just sold off $485mm and turned over the 2016 bonds. Current price is a no brainer at $1.75 when viewed from a risk reward perspective. Should see a double if Horn River JV is announced in 2013 (which was conveniently ignored by this contributor) and as NG prices increase. Watch BHI rig count at over decade low. Watch the KWK bonds trading near par. If the bonds were going down I'd be watching more closely, but they're not.

    Oh, and the high short interest is certainly ripe for a massive short-covering 20%-30% one day rally coming soon, just as what happened last year. Did I mention KWK is owned by Blackstone, SPO Advisory, South Eastern Asset mngt, First Trust, Vanguard, State Street, BAC, Longleaf Partners- But I guess this author is smarter than ALL those institutional funds. Why would they be holding over 100mm shares if KWK was doomed?? Did you know the Dardens own over 30% of the stock as well? I guess they will just let their shares go to zero as well? Will it be taken private with a few PE firms- who knows? Do you know that RDS is in JV and who knows- maybe they would want to buy a near pure play NG supplier expecting prices to rise in 2014-15? For me, there are many more reasons to own KWK shares than not to- especially at $1.75. I'm long KWK and hold a significant position.
    Jul 18 08:29 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The economy is immune to Fed stimulus right now, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser tells the WSJ, continuing his Emperor Has No Clothes tour (Bloomberg radio this morning, and a speech Tuesday). Are borrowing rates 10 or 20 basis points lower "really going to motivate people to break out of the challenges they face." [View news story]
    At least one person at the FED is seeing clearly. I completely agree with him, and think the latest QE will do more harm than good.
    Sep 27 01:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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