Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess. [View news story]
Its not only the banks addicted to stimulus, its the people sucking down their fat pensions and free health insurance by billions every year. Let's cut that as well.
"We can't just drill our way to lower gas prices when we consume 20% of the world's oil," President Obama says during his weekly address. Obama took the opportunity to advocate for his "all of the above" strategy, that relies less on foreign fossil fuels, and more on: "solar, wind, natural gas, biofuels, and more." [View news story]
I take that as; we can't drive 5mpg Hummers and still expect to be energy independent or not pay $5.00 gal.
On CNBC, Jon Corzine's spokesperson denies the story attached to the earlier memo about customer funds covering an overdraft at JPMorgan - saying Corzine wasn't told client funds were the ones being used to cover the shortage. [View news story]
Steal over 200 mm and nothing happens except a lengthy circus act dog and pony show. Steal a bicycle and your thrown in jail. Something's not right...
Big oil runs the world. Obama, a sad disappointment, promised clean energy but has not delivered. He could force a change to Nat Gas TODAY if it wasn't for the lobbyist pulling the strings.
I believe dependency on foreign oil is the biggest threat to our national security, more so than terrorists or deficits. Three weeks of no oil and we come to a crawl. Five weeks and we come to a stop. A few months and we cease to exist. Yet, with that level of risk, we still import oil and export LNG. Makes no sense.
Want good renewable jobs, then offer to pay for (thru tax subsidy/write-off) conversion to Nat Gas for all commercial trucking/transports. That would reduce oil dependency by over 30%, coupled with increased domestic production, and mandate increased MPG for all cars and luxury use tax on all non-commercial trucks/SUV (Hummer etc) and you would cut trade deficit by 50% (250 billion) per year and reduce threat that OPEC, Brazil, Canada is going to hold us hostage for higher oil prices.
Also, we need CFTC to mandate the number of oil futures contracts purchased by non-transport companies are limited for commercial banks (MS, GS), this coupled with increased margins.
If "they" wanted to fix this, they would have already done so.
In a press briefing at the White House, President Obama says an agreement on debt limit legislation is a done deal. All that's left are votes in the House and Senate. S&P 500 futures remain about 1.3% higher. [View news story]
The American people don't view this as a success, but rather another failure by the politicians to properly balance the budget and debt. Maybe next time they will actually show up at the polls and speak with their votes. But probably not, most are too busy texting and tweeting about Casy Anthony crap.
The harsh reality is; 1) This plan puts us further into debt 2) The unemployment rate is still 9.2% 3) GDP is at recession levels 4) State budgets will be decimated with the forthcoming cuts 5) Big oil and Wall St still retain complete control 6) 10 years to shave off less than 10% of the debt. That's nothing close to where it needs to be. 7) We're in big trouble here folks...... 8) Stocks will rally for a few days, but don't be fooled as the reality and severity of our situation will ultimately cometh right quickly. Maybe as early as Aug 5 BLS unemployment report.
After a 72% Y/Y rise in the XHB, the housing recovery rates the cover at Barron's. "We're in the early stages," says Lennar (LEN) President Rick Beckwith. The industry could triple in size to 1.8M housing starts in the next 3-4 years, says Ivy Zelman, who thinks Lennar could earn $5.30/share in FY15 vs. $0.48 last year. A more speculative play is Beazer (BZH), which isn't yet profitable, but has eased short-term liquidity fears with recent capital raises. [View news story]
Housing DEAD until 2015 and builder stocks will drop 50% in the next 3-6 months. Earnings NO WAY near current PE. Fools are buying DHI at $20 and PHM at $14 and KBH at $12 and LEN at $33. It will be a trap door drop when Qtr 3 orders drop again.
Don't look now, but MarketWatch's Rex Nutting says the U.S. debt load is getting better, not worse. It was excessive debt - both private and public - that caused the 2008 financial meltdown. Years later we're still de-leveraging, but it's not as bad as it seems. In the 11 quarters since the recession officially ended, total domestic debt rose by $702B - just 1.4%. By contrast, in the 11 quarters before the recession began, those bubble years of 2005 - 2007, total debt increased by $10.7T - or 28%. [View news story]
Never as bad as it seems until you have to pay it back. Don't know what cave this guy lives in but last time I checked we were near 16 trillion in public debt with private debt climbing- see student loan bubble.
It's been one month since the S&P 500 hit bear market territory and rallied hard. Since then, market pundits have done an about-face, aggressively distancing themselves from any inkling of bearish sentiment. From a contrarian perspective, this behavior suggests another bear-market rally, says Mark Hulbert. Add to the mix the excessively bullish exposure of short-term market timers and it gets even more ominous. So, Hulbert says, "if it looks like a bear market rally, and smells like a bear market rally, then... ?" [View news story]
I've lost all faith in these type analyst. They don't know any better than you or I what will happen next. My thoughts; Europe already in recession as supported by ISM and other recent stats. Slowing growth in Canada, Australia, BRICS (watch China closely) and the US is arguably nearing or already in recession as well.
US cutting deep in 2012 (debt committee debate coming soon) and those lost govt jobs have yet to be factored into the already high 9.1% unemployment rate. Private firms still cutting as well. This is the necessary deleveraging many have talked about for the last three years. Taking all this into consideration, how can the DOW be only 14% from its sub-prime housing debt HELOC free liquidity 2007 all-time highs? Simple, this thing we now call a "market" (70% of trades are made by HFT computers) have been fueled by everything from TARP to TALF to MBS bond purchases to POMO to FED QE and more taxpayer debt.
While I can appreciate those "experienced" value investors chasing yield, the day of reckoning will cometh soon and right quickly, and when it does, the exit nor the liquidity will be near sufficient to support the sell-off. For those that watch the ticker closely, remember Oct 3 and Oct 4 when the selling accelerated and some stocks were dropping 15-20% a day. At that pace it wouldn't take more than a half dozen trading days for the DOW to drop below 10,000, and then some.
Big news from CME tonight on margin requirements- although largely unreported, this could be the black swan event that triggers the next leg down to 1,020.
For you chartist, we are in a downward trend- as in we have made lower highs and lower lows for last several months. Although the investment funds tried and tried, they never could break-thru or escape the 1,080 range, which, barring QE3 and more FED bond purchases, should translate to a new lower low in Nov or Dec, down below 1,070.
EU is not fixed. EFSF needs a trillion. They cancelled this weeks bond auction and couldn't raise a mere 5 billion. The world is awash with debt and printing more money will not solve the problem.
Look under the rug, in many ways this is worse than 2008 because interest rates are already at 0%, we're 15 trillion in debt, we need consumption to drive growth but we have a 1.4 trillion annual deficit (need less spending to balance deficit) and 600 billion annual trade deficit.
Hold on tight boys and girls, we're entering the uncharted abyss. Let's not even think about Israel and Iran tension, or Pakistan accidentally loosing a nuke or two. I'm not completely bearish, afterall, out of 130mm working Americans we did add a whooping 80k jobs last month. What's that, a few tenths? And that should help the 46mm on food stamps. I also just learned (thanks Bernanke?) I'm now getting a cool .035% on my money market funds (up . 002%) so that should help my fixed income needs for at least a few days.
We'll get through all this, but first we need to let the free markets work the way intended and correct. Until then, we're simply adding more debt and prolonging the inevitable. Until then, stay nice, help a neighbor, and pay it forward.
4 Signs The S&P 500 Index Is Headed To 1,790 [View article]
Come here young man, give me all your gold, and I'll make you RICH!
S&P 1,790 as gas hits $9.00 gallon, gold is $5,000, and the debt climbs to 25 trillion.
The sooner we face reality the sooner we fix the structural problems of the country. Be not disillusioned by the "markets" as they are no longer an accurate barometer of corporate health, but rather merely a complex algo program designed to provide liquidity through HFT. When all run for the exits at the same time, many will not get out.
The Senate votes to table the Boehner debt plan 59-41. [View news story]
These politicians will never reach a consensus to pass anything to better the American people. And further, the current plan they have is, once again, garbage. It shaves merely pennies off the debt.
RAISE TAXES on everyone- everyone. Repeal Bush tax cuts (obviously the argument they "create" jobs has failed) and close the corporate off-shore loopholes.
CUT GOVT SPENDING on everything. Pull out of Iraq/afgan TODAY! I want to see all these DEMS and REPS take the same pay cut as they are proposing to SS/Medi-Care. Further, I want these jokers change their retirement package to ame as SS/Medi-Care just like everyone else.
CREATE AN ENERGY PLAN. I can't believe we allow the investment bankers to speculate in oil and drive up the price, and we spend 400 billion a year to foreign countries for their and big oil profits. Gee, why do we have a 600 billion a year trade deficit, and why do we indirectly fund the same terrorists (with oil $$) that we spend billions trying to stop- I wonder (SARCASM)! Goldman is now stashing aluminum in warehouses- what the hell! Mandate CFTC limit oil future contracts to any non-oil using business. Switch to Nat Gas as bridge fuel. Increase domestic production after the fracking solution mystery ingredients are known and regulated.
Its this simple folks. Tell your politicians. Monday is going to be a doozy!
The economy is immune to Fed stimulus right now, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser tells the WSJ, continuing his Emperor Has No Clothes tour (Bloomberg radio this morning, and a speech Tuesday). Are borrowing rates 10 or 20 basis points lower "really going to motivate people to break out of the challenges they face." [View news story]
At least one person at the FED is seeing clearly. I completely agree with him, and think the latest QE will do more harm than good.
Today's Fed leak should come as no surprise following yesterday's big sell-off, writes Josh Brown, especially as the leading GOP contender has made clear his displeasure with Bernanke. In addition to stocks, crude oil and gold got their tails in the air following the report. "The Fed is not playing games ... they want this market rolling higher. Fight it at your own peril." [View news story]
And with Bernanke future generations will forever be saddled with depression like conditions and a debt that can never be repaid.
Here's an interesting twist on the employment picture: Dentists across the country are noticing an increase in new patients coming through the door. Why? More people with health insurance as a result of getting full-time jobs. [View news story]
Ahh good point. More on the "plan".....
"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. Over the past 5 years, our federal debt has increased by $3.5 trillion to $8.6 trillion.That is “trillion” with a “T.” That is money that we have borrowed from the Social Security trust fund, borrowed from China and Japan, borrowed from American taxpayers. And over the next 5 years, between now and 2011, the President’s budget will increase the debt by almost another $3.5 trillion. Numbers that large are sometimes hard to understand. Some people may wonder why they matter. Here is why: This year, the Federal Government will spend $220 billion on interest. That is more money to pay interest on our national debt than we’ll spend on Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. That is more money to pay interest on our debt this year than we will spend on education, homeland security, transportation, and veterans benefits combined. It is more money in one year than we are likely to spend to rebuild the devastated gulf coast in a way that honors the best of America. And the cost of our debt is one of the fastest growing expenses in the Federal budget. This rising debt is a hidden domestic enemy, robbing our cities and States of critical investments in infrastructure like bridges, ports, and levees; robbing our families and our children of critical investments in education and health care reform; robbing our seniors of the retirement and health security they have counted on. Every dollar we pay in interest is a dollar that is not going to investment in America’s priorities." Senator Barack Obama Senate Floor Speech on Public Debt March 16, 2006
Barring an unforeseen miracle, Congress' supercommittee will concede tomorrow it has failed in its efforts to produce $1.2T in deficit cuts. With even a fig-leaf deal now unlikely, talks are focused on "how to shut this turkey down." [View news story]
This means nothing for now. If no deal they still cut in 2013. The cuts are insignificant anyway. 1.2 trillion reduction over 10 years...120 billion a year. Who cares, when we're running 1.4 trillion ANNUAL deficit. Keep your eye on EU, that is where the market moving action will take place over next few weeks. SPX inverse to USD. EUR goes down unless ECB prints, and for now Germany won't allow it. In the interim, they can't fill the bonds auctions. Its all come to a head last week and this week.
Re gold, it will also go down. Not because its not worth current price, but because it is a hedge. What do you do when you have redemptions, need money, and have no cash? First you'll dump your MOMO stocks, and then you'll dump your hedge- your gold. Some of these funds won't have a choice- they are down -15-25% or more in 2011. If market drops significantly, gold will go down with it, as will silver and all commodities. Be patient and stagger your orders over at least a few weeks.
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor says it's time for Americans to "come to grips with the fact that promises have been made that frankly are not going to be kept for many," and young people must "adjust" to a future with fewer entitlements. Straight talk for a change, or a betrayal? [View news story]
Here's one politician that speaks the truth and he gets riduculed for it. You all want to hear these lies about endless money supply so you can go on living in your fantasy world. Starbucks every morning, dine out every night. New Mercedes every two years living in the 4,000 house. Its the boomer entitlement generation mentality. Always has been, always will be.
You all should have been having these tough discussions about the de-industrialization of America and energy independence and budget and trade deficits when I was in diapers 40 years ago. Instead you whooped it up on fancy living and retiring at 55. Well, the coffer is now empty, and the generation you expect to support you wants to take away your high society lifestyle.
Someone has to make these tough decisions, so the 30-40 years olds will do it for you since you won't do it for yourselves.
Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess. [View news story]
"We can't just drill our way to lower gas prices when we consume 20% of the world's oil," President Obama says during his weekly address. Obama took the opportunity to advocate for his "all of the above" strategy, that relies less on foreign fossil fuels, and more on: "solar, wind, natural gas, biofuels, and more." [View news story]
On CNBC, Jon Corzine's spokesperson denies the story attached to the earlier memo about customer funds covering an overdraft at JPMorgan - saying Corzine wasn't told client funds were the ones being used to cover the shortage. [View news story]
The economy is at a "tipping point," with a "substantial" probability the U.S. could lurch again into recession, Robert Shiller says. The economy, now "immune to Keynesian crack," has deteriorated to the point where "when the demand isn't there, you can lower interest rates all the way to zero and people are still not willing to spend." [View news story]
I believe dependency on foreign oil is the biggest threat to our national security, more so than terrorists or deficits. Three weeks of no oil and we come to a crawl. Five weeks and we come to a stop. A few months and we cease to exist. Yet, with that level of risk, we still import oil and export LNG. Makes no sense.
Want good renewable jobs, then offer to pay for (thru tax subsidy/write-off) conversion to Nat Gas for all commercial trucking/transports. That would reduce oil dependency by over 30%, coupled with increased domestic production, and mandate increased MPG for all cars and luxury use tax on all non-commercial trucks/SUV (Hummer etc) and you would cut trade deficit by 50% (250 billion) per year and reduce threat that OPEC, Brazil, Canada is going to hold us hostage for higher oil prices.
Also, we need CFTC to mandate the number of oil futures contracts purchased by non-transport companies are limited for commercial banks (MS, GS), this coupled with increased margins.
If "they" wanted to fix this, they would have already done so.
In a press briefing at the White House, President Obama says an agreement on debt limit legislation is a done deal. All that's left are votes in the House and Senate. S&P 500 futures remain about 1.3% higher. [View news story]
The harsh reality is;
1) This plan puts us further into debt
2) The unemployment rate is still 9.2%
3) GDP is at recession levels
4) State budgets will be decimated with the forthcoming cuts
5) Big oil and Wall St still retain complete control
6) 10 years to shave off less than 10% of the debt. That's nothing close to where it needs to be.
7) We're in big trouble here folks......
8) Stocks will rally for a few days, but don't be fooled as the reality and severity of our situation will ultimately cometh right quickly. Maybe as early as Aug 5 BLS unemployment report.
After a 72% Y/Y rise in the XHB, the housing recovery rates the cover at Barron's. "We're in the early stages," says Lennar (LEN) President Rick Beckwith. The industry could triple in size to 1.8M housing starts in the next 3-4 years, says Ivy Zelman, who thinks Lennar could earn $5.30/share in FY15 vs. $0.48 last year. A more speculative play is Beazer (BZH), which isn't yet profitable, but has eased short-term liquidity fears with recent capital raises. [View news story]
Don't look now, but MarketWatch's Rex Nutting says the U.S. debt load is getting better, not worse. It was excessive debt - both private and public - that caused the 2008 financial meltdown. Years later we're still de-leveraging, but it's not as bad as it seems. In the 11 quarters since the recession officially ended, total domestic debt rose by $702B - just 1.4%. By contrast, in the 11 quarters before the recession began, those bubble years of 2005 - 2007, total debt increased by $10.7T - or 28%. [View news story]
It's been one month since the S&P 500 hit bear market territory and rallied hard. Since then, market pundits have done an about-face, aggressively distancing themselves from any inkling of bearish sentiment. From a contrarian perspective, this behavior suggests another bear-market rally, says Mark Hulbert. Add to the mix the excessively bullish exposure of short-term market timers and it gets even more ominous. So, Hulbert says, "if it looks like a bear market rally, and smells like a bear market rally, then... ?" [View news story]
US cutting deep in 2012 (debt committee debate coming soon) and those lost govt jobs have yet to be factored into the already high 9.1% unemployment rate. Private firms still cutting as well. This is the necessary deleveraging many have talked about for the last three years. Taking all this into consideration, how can the DOW be only 14% from its sub-prime housing debt HELOC free liquidity 2007 all-time highs? Simple, this thing we now call a "market" (70% of trades are made by HFT computers) have been fueled by everything from TARP to TALF to MBS bond purchases to POMO to FED QE and more taxpayer debt.
While I can appreciate those "experienced" value investors chasing yield, the day of reckoning will cometh soon and right quickly, and when it does, the exit nor the liquidity will be near sufficient to support the sell-off. For those that watch the ticker closely, remember Oct 3 and Oct 4 when the selling accelerated and some stocks were dropping 15-20% a day. At that pace it wouldn't take more than a half dozen trading days for the DOW to drop below 10,000, and then some.
Big news from CME tonight on margin requirements- although largely unreported, this could be the black swan event that triggers the next leg down to 1,020.
For you chartist, we are in a downward trend- as in we have made lower highs and lower lows for last several months. Although the investment funds tried and tried, they never could break-thru or escape the 1,080 range, which, barring QE3 and more FED bond purchases, should translate to a new lower low in Nov or Dec, down below 1,070.
EU is not fixed. EFSF needs a trillion. They cancelled this weeks bond auction and couldn't raise a mere 5 billion. The world is awash with debt and printing more money will not solve the problem.
Look under the rug, in many ways this is worse than 2008 because interest rates are already at 0%, we're 15 trillion in debt, we need consumption to drive growth but we have a 1.4 trillion annual deficit (need less spending to balance deficit) and 600 billion annual trade deficit.
Hold on tight boys and girls, we're entering the uncharted abyss. Let's not even think about Israel and Iran tension, or Pakistan accidentally loosing a nuke or two. I'm not completely bearish, afterall, out of 130mm working Americans we did add a whooping 80k jobs last month. What's that, a few tenths? And that should help the 46mm on food stamps. I also just learned (thanks Bernanke?) I'm now getting a cool .035% on my money market funds (up . 002%) so that should help my fixed income needs for at least a few days.
We'll get through all this, but first we need to let the free markets work the way intended and correct. Until then, we're simply adding more debt and prolonging the inevitable. Until then, stay nice, help a neighbor, and pay it forward.
4 Signs The S&P 500 Index Is Headed To 1,790 [View article]
S&P 1,790 as gas hits $9.00 gallon, gold is $5,000, and the debt climbs to 25 trillion.
The sooner we face reality the sooner we fix the structural problems of the country. Be not disillusioned by the "markets" as they are no longer an accurate barometer of corporate health, but rather merely a complex algo program designed to provide liquidity through HFT. When all run for the exits at the same time, many will not get out.
The Senate votes to table the Boehner debt plan 59-41. [View news story]
RAISE TAXES on everyone- everyone. Repeal Bush tax cuts (obviously the argument they "create" jobs has failed) and close the corporate off-shore loopholes.
CUT GOVT SPENDING on everything. Pull out of Iraq/afgan TODAY! I want to see all these DEMS and REPS take the same pay cut as they are proposing to SS/Medi-Care. Further, I want these jokers change their retirement package to ame as SS/Medi-Care just like everyone else.
CREATE AN ENERGY PLAN. I can't believe we allow the investment bankers to speculate in oil and drive up the price, and we spend 400 billion a year to foreign countries for their and big oil profits. Gee, why do we have a 600 billion a year trade deficit, and why do we indirectly fund the same terrorists (with oil $$) that we spend billions trying to stop- I wonder (SARCASM)! Goldman is now stashing aluminum in warehouses- what the hell! Mandate CFTC limit oil future contracts to any non-oil using business. Switch to Nat Gas as bridge fuel. Increase domestic production after the fracking solution mystery ingredients are known and regulated.
Its this simple folks. Tell your politicians.
Monday is going to be a doozy!
The economy is immune to Fed stimulus right now, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser tells the WSJ, continuing his Emperor Has No Clothes tour (Bloomberg radio this morning, and a speech Tuesday). Are borrowing rates 10 or 20 basis points lower "really going to motivate people to break out of the challenges they face." [View news story]
Today's Fed leak should come as no surprise following yesterday's big sell-off, writes Josh Brown, especially as the leading GOP contender has made clear his displeasure with Bernanke. In addition to stocks, crude oil and gold got their tails in the air following the report. "The Fed is not playing games ... they want this market rolling higher. Fight it at your own peril." [View news story]
Here's an interesting twist on the employment picture: Dentists across the country are noticing an increase in new patients coming through the door. Why? More people with health insurance as a result of getting full-time jobs. [View news story]
"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies.
Over the past 5 years, our federal debt has increased by $3.5 trillion to $8.6 trillion.That is “trillion” with a “T.” That is money that we have borrowed from the Social Security trust fund, borrowed from China and Japan, borrowed from American taxpayers. And over the next 5 years, between now and 2011, the President’s budget will increase the debt by almost another $3.5 trillion.
Numbers that large are sometimes hard to understand. Some people may wonder why they matter. Here is why: This year, the Federal Government will spend $220 billion on interest. That is more money to pay interest on our national debt than we’ll spend on Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. That is more money to pay interest on our debt this year than we will spend on education, homeland security, transportation, and veterans benefits combined. It is more money in one year than we are likely to spend to rebuild the devastated gulf coast in a way that honors the best of America.
And the cost of our debt is one of the fastest growing expenses in the Federal budget. This rising debt is a hidden domestic enemy, robbing our cities and States of critical investments in infrastructure like bridges, ports, and levees; robbing our families and our children of critical investments in education and health care reform; robbing our seniors of the retirement and health security they have counted on.
Every dollar we pay in interest is a dollar that is not going to investment in America’s priorities."
Senator Barack Obama
Senate Floor Speech on Public Debt
March 16, 2006
Barring an unforeseen miracle, Congress' supercommittee will concede tomorrow it has failed in its efforts to produce $1.2T in deficit cuts. With even a fig-leaf deal now unlikely, talks are focused on "how to shut this turkey down." [View news story]
Re gold, it will also go down. Not because its not worth current price, but because it is a hedge. What do you do when you have redemptions, need money, and have no cash? First you'll dump your MOMO stocks, and then you'll dump your hedge- your gold. Some of these funds won't have a choice- they are down -15-25% or more in 2011. If market drops significantly, gold will go down with it, as will silver and all commodities. Be patient and stagger your orders over at least a few weeks.
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor says it's time for Americans to "come to grips with the fact that promises have been made that frankly are not going to be kept for many," and young people must "adjust" to a future with fewer entitlements. Straight talk for a change, or a betrayal? [View news story]
Always has been, always will be.
You all should have been having these tough discussions about the de-industrialization of America and energy independence and budget and trade deficits when I was in diapers 40 years ago. Instead you whooped it up on fancy living and retiring at 55. Well, the coffer is now empty, and the generation you expect to support you wants to take away your high society lifestyle.
Someone has to make these tough decisions, so the 30-40 years olds will do it for you since you won't do it for yourselves.