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  • Recession Is Easing - Check Your Underwear [View article]
    LMFAO - OK so bankruptcies are up 24% but we have definitely "turned the corner" because of an uptick in underwear sales? Talk about grasping for green shoots - wow.
    Sep 3 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spike in Mass Layoff Events [View article]
    The problem is if Joe, Bob and Sue didn't want George at the meeting because they were going to collectively craft strategies that minimized their losses on their holdings of George's debt while they spent less on future purchases of George's debt.


    On Aug 22 07:47 PM Genesis wrote:

    > If Joe, Bob, and Sue had a meeting and they called it the Joe-Bob-Sue
    > Meeting, George should probably count it a privilege if he got to
    > sit in on it. That's just my first impression anyway.
    >
    > "You do remember the recent BRIC meeting where the US was NOT invited?"
    Aug 22 10:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Balance Sheet: Week of August 19, 2009 [View article]
    So when US holds all of our debt will the taxpayers get the interest payments?
    Aug 22 11:52 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Card Delinquency Wave Reaching Tidal Force [View article]
    Now he is up 410% LOL this market is insane


    On Aug 19 09:54 AM MudEngineer wrote:

    > Financial stocks have gone up as much as 400% in 5 months and you
    > read the article above and still want to stay long JPM. You are living
    > in a world of hope just like the people who ran up these stocks!
    > The real world just does not support the banks going even higher
    > from here. Good luck with your JPM purchase and maintain some tight
    > stops. You are going to need them.
    Aug 22 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Card Delinquency Wave Reaching Tidal Force [View article]
    LOL sure - from the article;
    Bank of America Corp., which has the highest default rate among the biggest U.S. card issuers, said its write-offs rose to 13.82 percent in July from 13.81 percent in June.

    Capital One Financial Corp., the third-biggest issuer of Visa credit cards, reported a monthly increase in managed defaults, which climbed to 9.83 percent in July from 9.73 percent.




    On Aug 19 09:35 AM The Geoffster wrote:

    > ...and this from Bloomberg, "Falling Credit-Card Defaults Suggest
    > Recession May Be Ending "www.bloomberg.com/apps...;sid=a7og.1x7TVcQ
    Aug 22 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spike in Mass Layoff Events [View article]
    No it is millions of ARMED people with no job and no income - when the charade ends expect martial law to be implemented


    On Aug 21 07:30 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

    > I'm not sure your two are that far off (though your list was convincing
    > if anyone needed evidence of the troubles we face). I think what
    > Pat was driving at was that when people run out of even the small
    > amount of money that they get from unemployment and they have little
    > prospect for finding work (hence they lose "economic hope") then
    > there is real danger to our society. And I think I agree. Certainly
    > your list of dangers is compelling too and obviously they are all
    > related... but the idea that we will have growing millions of people
    > with no job and no income is alarming. Desparate people act desparately
    > and the impact on our country might be severe.
    Aug 22 11:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Credit Bubble and the Balance of Trade [View article]
    So you mentioned a prediciton about the wall falling as an example of predicting the near term future and then mentioned vague reasons for instability in Asia and then ended with the desire for a cup of coffee instead of a current near term prediction - THANKS!


    On Aug 21 03:16 PM carey_jim wrote:

    > Sometimes I sound like a nihilist, even to myself, but I can't help
    > repeating that predicting even the near term future is a bear, if
    > you'll pardon the image.
    >
    > All we have to do is list a few years and a few countries, Japan
    > 1989, Russia 1987, The United States 2008 and China ??, to get the
    > idea.
    >
    > I was sitting in my backyard with a family of politically minded
    > Germans, in 1986, telling them that I thought the Berlin Wall was
    > about to come down and they all laughed at me and said it would not
    > come down in our lifetimes. The conversation changed to another subject,
    > abruptly, but the Berlin Wall fell around their ears within a few
    > months of their return to Germany. I'm not bragging about my predictive
    > powers but I happened to be following German events very closely
    > at that time, and I was looking at some things that most Germans
    > wouldn't allow themselves to see at the time. (I won't mention some
    > of my less successful predictions :)
    >
    > From a bird's eye view it looks as if China is in a counterrevolutionary
    > swing to the right. With political unrest, that pendulum could reach
    > its limit and begin moving back to a center that has, probably, shifted
    > towards the totalitarian, egalitarian left permanently. Mix this
    > with a 2500 year old native grown Confucian authoritarianism, combined
    > with a "China is the center of the universe" mentality, and we could
    > see trouble in the future.
    >
    > For one thing, Asia itself has big political problems, even though
    > they seem to be in party mode at the moment. Consider: Japan is rearming.
    > The Korean civil war has not truly ended since it started in 1951.
    > China is circling Taiwan like a shark in love.
    >
    > Most China scholars agree that one major reason Chinese leaders embraced
    > Marxism was as a shield to allow the Chinese people to turn from
    > their ancient feudal culture towards Western humanist culture, and
    > especially towards our political, economic and social institutions,
    > while keeping the West out of its internal affairs, which they were
    > unable to do in the past.
    >
    > As in Japan, this has worked on the surface but underneath the surface,
    > Confucianism and Taoism continue to have a very strong influence,
    > just as Christianity has a strong influence, under the surface, in
    > the West. Chinese feudal culture, along with the Chinese language
    > and character system, will tend to isolate China from the rest of
    > the world and especially from the West. The Chinese have deluded
    > even themselves into thinking that they are a Western style economic
    > system. But they aren't.
    >
    > This is a very complex subject and I've only scratched the surface.
    >
    >
    > (For example, Russia believes that its culture and civilization forms
    > a true bridge between Asia (including Islam) and the West. But, of
    > course, that is another story. (And, ominously, it involves "the
    > roof of the world" Afghanistan and environs.) )
    >
    > I'm going to have another cup of coffee. Maybe I'll cheer up.
    Aug 22 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Credit Bubble and the Balance of Trade [View article]
    Well in China the banks are loaning money to people who are taking it and directly gambling in the stock market - here in the US the govt gives the money to the PPT which runs trades through GS so we get to foot the bill for the mess without the benefit of making money on our inflated market, I am starting to like China's form of capitaliasm better LOL


    On Aug 21 01:36 PM Bill L. wrote:

    > Much like the many bubbles that have formed in the last 10 - 15 years
    > or so in the US, China has adopted a similar approach in combating
    > deflationary cycles, but on a massive dose of new and improved communist
    > steroids. It is quite obvious that the huge run in stocks, commodities,
    > and real estate in China is a direct result of the Government forcing
    > banks to increase lending 200% year over year. Unfortunately, as
    > we learned in our own lending bubble, when you force banks to lend
    > more, the only way to go is down the totem pole; lendees with poor
    > credit capacity are given credit to speculate with. This only ends
    > one way.
    Aug 22 11:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Credit Bubble and the Balance of Trade [View article]
    LMAO "banned for insider trading" - shame on you only Goldman Sachs is allowed to use insider information!


    On Aug 21 01:18 PM Econ 101 wrote:

    > Tyler,
    >
    > what about the NY Post article about you this morning???
    >
    > www.nypost.com/seven/0...
    Aug 22 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Pulse of the Post-War Business Cycle on the Verge of Stopping? [View article]
    What's a bic mac?


    On Aug 16 10:50 AM LKofEnglish wrote:

    > "never addressed the issue of debt"?!!! his name was ronald reagan
    > and the democrats have been apoplectic ever since. "how could you
    > destroy my evil lovliness" has been their mantra ever since. THIS
    > COUNTRY WAS RUNNING TRILLION DOLLAR SURPLUSES UNDER BILL CLINTON.
    > There isn't even the pretense of cost control and only Republicans
    > with a total meekness save for the shutdown in 93 have ever advocated
    > it. Interesting article. The social contract however got torn up
    > in 1973. that was the revolution because that was the end of the
    > draft. there's no way to "soak up the liquidity" of a vast unpaid
    > labor force. sure there's no "wage inflation." but goods inflation
    > is absolutely soaring with the bic mac index absolutely soaring down
    > here in Mississippi. think the fact that people can't afford a bic
    > mac means the end of the world? think again.
    Aug 16 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Granular Look at the Stratified U.S. Consumer [View article]
    Exactly - the ideal of America was the ability to move from the lowest class to the highest class within one generation and it was often immigrants that came here to take advantage of this ideal. As the disincentives grow less people will employ effort and capital in this country and instead try to make their fortunes elsewhere


    On Aug 16 10:55 AM traden4alpha wrote:

    > Thanks for another really great article, Tyler. The nonlinearities
    > in consumer behavior imply that economic averages don't tell the
    > whole story. Who is in debt, unemployed, consuming, etc. is more
    > important than just the averages of debt, unemployment, consumption,
    > etc.
    >
    > One issue that you mention that needs more discussion is the U.S.
    > taxbase -- which will be crucial for paying-off the burgeoning debt.
    > That top 10% group which provides 42% of consumption, also provides
    > 70% of the income taxbase. Whether one likes the rich or dislikes
    > the rich, they seem to be the folks that will have to bailout the
    > U.S. and it's growing trillions in debt. Yet the current popular
    > and political zeitgeist seems to be running the opposite direction
    > People want higher taxes on the rich and salary caps. That maybe
    > a popular move to penalize the perceived excesses of the past decade,
    > but it creates some big questions about repaying all those Treasury
    > notes that the U.S is printing.
    >
    > If the U.S. is to survive this crisis, it probably needs to create
    > more rich people, not fewer.
    Aug 16 11:17 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Granular Look at the Stratified U.S. Consumer [View article]
    Stop whining like a little girl Jeff


    On Aug 16 10:49 AM cranyinnyc wrote:

    > hey you should claim very little credit for this post and don't hide
    > behind that throw away line that you relied on a BAC report. First
    > of all you should be kind enough to at least name the author (Jeff
    > Rosenberg) and secondly you should pass off as your thoughts what
    > are summaries of the Rosenberg's report. Ever heard of quotations??
    Aug 16 11:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The (Monthly) Cost of Bankruptcy [View article]
    LOL sure 30 million - what a great deal we got from the lawyers for a pre-packaged BK, you must be a lawyer!


    On Aug 12 09:08 PM dybydx wrote:

    > i dont find the fee high. sure 400k a month seem like alot, but we're
    > talking about reorg of trash like Government Motors.
    >
    > besides most bankruptcy proceedings of that scale doesnt last more
    > than 1 yr. in the case of GM, its less than 2mths. $30M is a small
    > fee to pay given the work involved.
    >
    > everyone knows that US has one of the most litigious environment
    > and it costs a fortune to do anything.
    Aug 13 12:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak Fed Auction Drives Equities Higher [View article]
    ? for every share bought by insiders 4 were sold - pretty straight forward.


    On Aug 13 12:27 AM Bling Daddy wrote:

    > How is it that insiders are selling 4:1 then? How is it early $ if
    > we've been charging since March? As for your ad hominem repose:<br/>
    >
    > “Half the world is composed of idiots, the other half of people clever
    > enough to take indecent advantage of them”
    >
    > -Walter Kerr
    Aug 13 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • July U.S. Budget Deficit Grows by $181 Billion, Receipts Tumble [View article]
    LOL so are you disputing the CBO report?


    On Aug 10 02:12 PM Themoose wrote:

    > Too funny, if you guys even knew what Tyler was talking about you
    > would understand that most of his analysis is so wrong its laughable.
    > He's just trying to become another Dr.Doom and his work will not
    > stand up to anyone who understands this stuff, this work in particular
    > is just a load of crap, nothing more.
    Aug 10 08:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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