wild

On Shanda's New Revenue Model (SNDA)

SNDA is the most stupid firm among those Chinese companies listed in the US. I remember one of the greatest investors in the world once mentioned that the strength of a company can be shown by whether it can hold onto or improve its price on products. Using my products for free? What a great idea. It is just like American automakers, selling junks for a penny thenn lowering price again and again. It is just a proof to the weakness of a company's product and how hard it is for the company to get customers. Look at Toyota and Honda, they give the least rebate on sales and maintain strong position on pricing. Toyota even claimed to raise price to let GM and Ford feel better. But, customers dump the cheap American cars for Japanese super-qualifty no matter what the price difference is. If SNDA is really the king, how about raise your price and still see players puring in? NTES is the only one of the three who has the patience and calibre to build something nice on its own. Apparently, What NTES is doing is not enough. No need to mention the other two, crappy firms without a determination on developing their own products. SNDA is wasting cash on sina and the stupid boxes. It tries to be the king distributor of entertainment content in China. That has put the firm into direct competition with state-owned companies who own and operate TV and cable networks. What consumers need is great content. They do not care about the channel and format. Is that a fact that a great storyline can make book, movie and game become hits? SNDA is avoiding doing the hard work to creat long-term value but tather doing some cheap tricks any firm can do with that much cash.

Just give a hint, Sina and Sohu have consistently raised their price on adverstisement in the past and are expected to do so in the future. If SNDA is right, GOOG should let people post ads through it for free. SNDA is really an expert hype-creator like many other Chinese firms, having too less to compete but too much to say to the press.

Ctrip: An Acquisition Target? (CTRP)

I would say it shows how ignorant the writer of this article is considering the deal between IAC and elong is well presented in the sec filings. If someone closely follow it, he or she should know the 1st and 3rd options suggested here are almost impossible. Just bury your head into the filings then you will find the two options are almost nonsense. The 2nd option may have a chance to survive if CD is willing to throw in a pool of cash.

China Techfaith Wireless Beats By $0.04; Guides Above Consensus; Stock Up 12% in After-Hours Trading (CNTF 3Q05 Earnings)

I really do not understand Wall Street. It was just a typical hoax played by the Chinese. First, without any news, the stock price went south in a rush. To give this a reason, the company lowered the guidance for 3Q and the whole year. Then the stock price jumped on this bad news. That is just a typical well-cordinated scheme by the insiders.

After all, all the models designed by this firm are very unpopluar in China. NEC claims 3% of the Chinese market but manages to receive the most complaints compared to other brandnames. If you go into any retailor store and ask the salesman in China, they will tell how bad NEC models perform. Actually, Kyocera and Mitsibishi's models are manufatured by Wuhan NEC and designed by CNTF. And, their products are referred as having the same quality issues as NEC models. This is a fact that every cellphone salesman in China knows.

Please use some common sense: will you share your core R&D strength with someone else if they have enabled your core competitive advantage? Why not Nokia and Motorola share their design team with other brand owners? Will that bring more revenue to them or kill their edge? After all, the cellphone is far from a commodity. Superior qualify does not come in cheap. If CNTF is this great, why most of its clients enjoy a bad reputation on quality?

This timezero has got right on one thing: the stock price will still go up because the insiders need to sell high. They created a trough to allow their accomplice to get shares cheaper thus having more strength to pump up. But, the baloon will bust eventually. A company's product is the last thing to tell the truth.