Kalani Martin

Tobin's 'Q' Shows Market Is Still Cheap

One thing the author has not mentioned is that Tobin's research shows that once the ratio hits a peak in a bull market (like it did in 2000) and then breaks down below 1.00 in a bear market, it has always gone down to .03 before sustaining a recovery and changing back to a legitimate bull market again. We never got anywhere near .03 in March, which reinforces that this is just a bear market rally. It serves no purpose to only include bits and pieces of data to support an opinion and exclude arguably the most important piece of data.

BLS vs. ADP Numbers: Employment Outlook Is Improving

You're crazy if you think BLS data is worth regurgitating, much less using as the basis for forming an opinion or coming to any conclusions. There is something to be said for using "accurate" data when doing any analysis. BLS data is simply not accurate, that's a fact. Even their own web-site explains to a basic degree how many pieces of data are not included for a variety of arbitrary reasons.

Why Did Deutsche Bank Drop DXO?

Adam,

Thanks for your response. Please excuse my foul mood in my previous comments. I'm still pissed off about Deutsche Bank closing DXO. I don't blame Deutsche, but I'm not happy with Gensler and the CFTC. The only thing position limits on commodities is going to do is hurt the smaller retail investor. The big boys will find their loop holes and speculate as much as they want. Meanwhile the smaller investor has fewer choices and innovation is stifled.

I did read the prospectus for DXO and understood it's structure and how it worked before I invested. Despite it's flaws, it was still the best ETF/ETN for the average person to invest in crude, far better than products like USO and a lot easier than commodity futures. I did quite well with DXO and was hoping to get back in at a later date. I guess I'll figure out another way to invest in crude.

Why Did Deutsche Bank Drop DXO?

DXO does not buy front month futures and roll them over every month like you described, nor does it experience the "roll yield" you described. The main reason DXO did not track the price of crude oil is because it's leveraged and compounds daily. What you have described here is how USO is managed, which is very different from how DXO is managed.

The information you have written here is completely inaccurate. You have no idea what you're talking about! Writers should do exactly what investors should do, read the prospectus before buying or writing about a product!

Forget 'Cash for Clunkers': Try 'Dough for Dumps'

I'm a big fan of Peter Schiff the "Financial Advisor". Where has he gone? This piece should be an op-ed in the NYT, not on SA. You sound more like a politician everyday (that's not meant to be a compliment). It would be nice to hear some market commentary from you again someday..................

Less Government or Lower Wages? You Choose

Hey Peter,

I've always had a lot of respect for you and your ideas, but how about writing some articles about our currrent markets and leaving the politics alone for a while. I know you're considering running for Senate in Connecticut, but this is a financial web-site, not a political web-site. I know you're going to say the two and intertwined and I agree, but the emphasis of your articles has changed and is now too far skewed towards politics. Save it for the campaign and the folks in Connecticut and please share your insights about more market specific subjects. Thank you!

The Energy Markets According to Stupak

I'm not quite sure what 5142152-337 is talking about when saying:

"Gensler does appear hell-bent on capping position limits, maybe a maximum of 1000-1500 which will FINALLY kick the snot out of the JPMorgans of the world. God, it serves them right! Those elitist greedy bastards (EGBs) have run amok for decades. Now, its time for us little guys that have seen the handwriting on the wall (silver investors) to get a piece of the action."

Gensler is a former Goldman Sachs executive. He's one of those EGB's that you describe. His appointment to the CFTC will only help the JP Morgans and Goldman Sachs of the world. You have no idea what you're talking about!

Leveraged ETF Ban Spreading Like the Flu

The debate on this is ridiculous. There is no decay and no fraud, period. The main reason that these products do not track the market or the indexes that they follow is because they compound daily. Let me say that again, they compound daily! If you can't figure out how that can/should dramatically impact the pricing and performance of these products, then you're an idiot and you should be stashing money under your mattress.

When Goldman Might Have Failed

I strongly take issue with the comment you made below:

"But does this mean that Goldman didn't really "deserve" the profit figures it recently reported, because without that bail-out they'd have tanked? That seems off; a similar argument could be made about any firm or household dependent on a functioning financial system."

The AIG bailout is just the tip of the iceberg. You fail to mention TARP and the sweetheart deal GS got to buy back it's warrants.

You fail to mention the The Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program when Goldman last year converts from an investment bank to bank holding company status, which now makes it eligible for a new program that gives commercial banks FDIC backing for unsecured debt. This basically hands over a free AAA rating to the big banks like GS and allows them access to mountains of cheap money, with taxpayers on the hook if something goes wrong.

You also fail to mention other Fed Programs. By converting to a bank holding company, Goldman also became eligible for a whole galaxy of new bailout programs administered through the federal reserve like the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF); it also became eligible to borrow cheap money from the Fed’s discount window.

You also fail to mention the fees GS is raking in as a result of other banks wanting to repay their TARP money. Many TARP recipients had to issue new equity according to certain parameters, and guess who one of the only major equity underwriters left on Wall Street is? That’s right, Goldman, Sachs. Goldman’s equity underwriting department hauled in $736 million this quarter. Does this happen without the bailouts? No. Do the bailouts happen if banks like Goldman hadn’t taken on too much risk in the first place? No. This is another subsidy.

I could keep going on and on and on. It's your thinking that is a bit "off" on this subject. It's a shame that an economics writer such as yourself either doesn't have the competence or the balls to do his job. It's also a shame that a writer from Rolling Stone Magazine who has never written about finance before and a few financial bloggers are running circles around a professional economics writer like you. We need journalists who will start doing some real investigating and writing!

Avoid USO with These Alternative Funds

You make a good point about the effects of contango as USO rolls over their futures contracts monthly. You fail to mention that products like DBO and DXO don't have that problem which is why they are doing a much better job of tracking the price of crude oil. You also fail to mention the most important reason why these ETF/ETN products will never come close to tracking the exact price movement of crude oil, because they compund daily. This is a pretty big omission from your article and is one of the most important things an investor should consider before buying these products. Click on the article below to read about how the different products are tracking vs. crude oil.

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Don't Believe This Rally in Oil

With all due respect, there are quite a few flaws in your argument as you express your opinions without any supporting data. You also minimize the concept of Peak Oil in your simplistic definition. Don't just tell us that you think oil bulls are wrong, tell us why you think that with some detail! You also fail to address a couple of macroeconomic factors that have a huge impact on the current run up in the price of oil. These factors include the flight to the safety of hard assets due to the recent actions of the Fed and Treasury, the value of the dollar decreasing, the anticipation of inflation (possibly severe) in the near future, and the fact that many oil producers have dramatically reduced their output and their investment in finding new sources of oil (it takes a lot longer to ramp up production then it does to ratchet it down). Please do your homework before coming back here with your simplistic opinions which do not address any of the real factors that I mentioned.

The OIL ETF Disappoints Investors as a Crude Tracking Instrument

DXO (and it's inverse, DTO) is by far the best ETF/ETN at tracking crude oil and it's not a coincidence that it's also the best at managing the effects of contango. Review the recent SA article by clicking the link below.

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Paul Krugman, Please Call Ben on This 'Printing Money' Thing

Todd - I normally enjoy your postings on this site, when they stick to financial markets and economics. This posting is purely political and has no place on this site. I'm neither a democrat or republican, liberal or conservative (and am not a Paul Krugman fan). Those terms oversimplify issues that are way too complicated to be defined by labels. Lets get past these silly labels and maybe as a country we can get something accomplished!

One thing that amazes me is how focused people are on budget deficits. The real issue here is debt, not a one year deficit. One fact I'd like to point out is that when George W. Bush took office in 2000, the national debt stood at just over 3 trillion. When he left office after two terms, the national debt stood at just over 10 trillion. No one has done more to indebt this country, that is an inarguable fact! All the quibbling about how much Obama and Congress is spending now is too little too late. At this point ideology is irrelevant and I'm disappointed with politicians of every stripe.

Let's get back to markets and economies and identifying ways to make money no matter what's currently happening.

Is an Oil Storm Brewing?

The risks to price that you have detailed are all very valid. I would also add one more, the decreasing foreign support for the U.S federal debt market. There is ample evidence that China is already moving money it would have traditionally bought treasuries with into huge quantities of commodities. The effects of this are two fold; If this continues over the long term, China's buying power will inflate the prices of a variety of commodities (including oil) and the U.S will have to continue to print more money and buy it's own debt, which will only continue to exacerbate inflation.

Oil ETFs: Texas Tea or Empty Well?

What you are failing to factor in is that the performance of these ETF's or ETN's compound daily. When comparing something that compounds performance daily to the performance of an index or the price of crude (WTI) over a period of time, there should always be significant differences. When you consider this, these products are working exactly as they are supposed to. It's basic math. The consistent contango we've seen doesn't help, but this daily compounding will also be a huge benefit when crude oil (WTI) is in backwardation.