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  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come [View article]
    "Intermediate term puts"

    How many months out are you typically allowing on the options plays you are swinging? 3-4?
    Sep 14 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Edition On Gold: What Are Long-Term Investors To Do? [View article]
    Not bad, like it. Miners (and certain Junior miners) will make a lot of people wealthy/wealthier over the next 3 years....and of course certain ETFs. I think many investors don't realize the significance, nor the urgency of what is happening right now, unfolding right in front of them. It is not often that an investor gets the opportunity to hit the ground floor of a 3+year bull cycle. Loading up in tranches (shares and long dated options) will be everyone's best bet towards securing your families' futures over the long run.
    Jul 28 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over [View article]
    Agreed 100%, and I'd look forward to that article. I trade short term derivatives in the metals, miners, ETFs, but I am a long term bull as well.
    Jul 27 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over [View article] wife isn't kinda pregnant.

    I'll agree that if it can't be proven to break any laws then it can't be prosecuted. However if the market were able to move on sentiment alone, would the market order dumping equivalent of a small nations GDP be necessary to ensure options expire worthless be necessary? Come on man, if it weren't manipulation, or at the very least ethically grey, then the entities doing the trades would do things differently in 3 ways (that I can think of):
    1. It wouldn't be executed in dark pools using HFT Algos
    2. The SEC, CTFC, et al wouldn't be investing said activities on the regular as they are currently and have been with increasing regularity
    3. The entities would offer a service, for a premium, which would be recognized by the aforementioned regulatory bodies as sanctioned, legitimate market activities. I would have to believe that this would be a no brainer trading service that would revolutionize the industry and correct GDP as well as improve individual wealth leading to healthy growth and a stabilized economy which is less dependent on central planning.

    Maybe at that point market sentiment would be what the market actually sees and believes, not just the sentiment that is allowed in gold, due to the sentiment of other instruments by entities with larger bank rolls and a macro agenda to leverage those. Or would this threaten central banks effectiveness, indirectly, adversely affecting just about every other fiat interest in the world?

    Anyway, didn't want this to turn into a geopolitical witch hunt rant. Point is, one can say it's not manipulation because it treads in a grey area where there is no accountable recourse, but I think Lehman, Ponzi, and Enron probably made the same arguments. They're going to run out of Barclays scapegoats soon....
    Jul 27 12:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over [View article]
    No manipulation? I'll bet you (Gentlemans bet) we get monkey hammered around 8:00-8:30am tomorrow going into options expiration, followed by FOMC Tues and Wed. Let say ~$1Bil notional dumped at a market order in under 2 seconds? Maybe I'm wrong this time?
    Jul 27 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    "9 minutes before CPI data hit, gold futures were slammed lower on notable volume ($390 million). Then as CPI hit and "noise" was evidently not going away, gold prices surged over $12 to $1316 obn very heavy volume... Gold is moving inversely with the USD (which is flying around) as stock rally (?) and longer-term bonds rally/flatten."

    Looking to buy puts this week should gold reach the 1330'ish level. Next week is option expiration and FOMC on the 29th and 30th. Likely be a massive dump of notional contracts leading up to the announcement.
    Jul 22 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    I disagree.....everything, to a degree, is marginally predictable to a degree. That is why I do follow Elliot Waves, but I combine it with a have dozen other technicals, fundamental analysis and then pay attention the history. Yes, sometimes everyone is shocked and has no clue what happened, however that is not usually the case.
    Jul 21 07:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    Part 3

    ....I'm assuming some time around July26-29 we see at least one massive unloading of contracts premarket to drop gold $10-$20 prior to FOMC. 100% IMO of course.
    Jul 20 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    Part 2
    With that said, take a look at last week:

    - Monday (7/14) Gold was down 2.5% - the biggest daily drop since early Dec 2013. That US open print was a $1.37 billion notional flush with a market order prior to the US open. This trade occurred in the time span of roughly 2 seconds.

    - Then of course on Tuesday (7/15) with The Fed proclaiming bubbles in some of the most-loved segments of the stock market and explaining that the economy is doing "ok" but they must remain dovish for longer what better time than now to dump $2.3 Billion notional in futures (sale of over 17,000 contracts with a market order). This one in just under 3 seconds.

    After those two days, gold continued normal trading with rational, non-exuberant ups and downs as the week progressed. If anyone reading my post doesn't believe the above two days are a norm, I've been tracking this for years and can post more than you would like to read, all verifiable with charts, to-the-second volume, and associated international concurrent events.

    THESE IRRATIONAL TRADES HAPPEN REGULARLY SURROUNDING GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS....not necessarily "because/as a direct result" of the events, rather their perceived adverse impacts on one or more particular reserve banks interests at that time, all occurring in an age where Abenomics (Yen), Euro, USD, Yuan are all struggling with PERCEIVED SENTIMENT (basis of Elliot Wave, which I do use in my trading btw). With sentiment being such a persuasive mover of markets, it is in your best interest to push the markets towards a synthesized sentiment (when you have the resources to do so) in hopes that the Hurd mentality kicks in. However, with no substance (fundamentals) to back it, the market waffles. Since we are now in a corrective phase in gold, it will likely continue to waffle for some time.

    The COT says it all, they do not lack sophistication, and are generally (not always, 70% move over 90 days in 1982) conscious of SENTIMENT in central banks. My point is this, sentiment is everywhere, however some entities have the ability to "influence" it as opposed to the average investor who must simply attempt to read tea leaves and "react" to it. I am agnostic as a trader and believe that charts and fundamentals must somehow come together to make an educated investment decision, bearing international and geopolitical interests in mind (doubly so with Gold). In the end, the "ax" on the ask will only be removed once the threat of gold returning to true valuation is removed (won't happen), or the larger entities begin to actually call for physical on the paper trades that cannot be delivered (remember 100:1) resulting in fireworks. Or, maybe, the powers that be simply give up and try to make a buck on the way up. Who knows at this point.

    Good luck with Kitco, and understand that I know I'm not going to change anyone's perception or trading strategies. Just injecting an alternate view to establishment of sentiment, and hopefully helping others to understand that just because you are trading "gold sentiment" does to mean others are not trading against gold due to their "sentiment" in another area.

    Happy investing
    Jul 20 11:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Whipsaw, Or Crash Ahead? [View article]
    Part 1
    "Now, when one follows a news event which, after its first reporting, seems to "cause" gold to move, yet the same news event later has no effect upon gold, or even sees gold move in the opposite direction, should not the analyst - assuming they are maintaining an open mind and being intellectually honest - come to the conclusion that, while there may have been some correlation in the first instance, there really is no causative relationship? Again, if one is being intellectually honest, then the logical conclusion they should reach is that there is no causative relationship between the event and gold's movement."

    Maybe not as a direct result of said events, however, as is often the case, I believe people are looking at the events, rather than the parties whom those events affect the most and their subsequent actions (not necessarily to harm or boost gold for monetary gain, rather synthetically move it for political and geopolitical leverage). I know from your previous articles you don't believe in manipulation, but you may be the only one in the world who believes that. In the past (during gold standard) they were at least open and admitted the manipulation to keep gold at $35. Now it is done in dark pools with HFT Algos and unbacked paper trades on roughly 100:1 ratio to actual available physical backing. This is why just over a week ago JP Morgan noted that the share of off-exchange volumes as percentage of total equity trading volumes jumped in 2014 to 37%, the highest ever. Couple that with the recent article from WSJ in which it mentioned the largest trading floor in the world being a ghost town:
    "The UBS trading floor in Stamford, CT was dubbed (by Guinness World Records) the largest in the world. But now there are virtually no traders shouting into their phones or staring at terminals. UBS's cavernous floor is taken up mostly by back-office, legal and technology staffers, according to people familiar with the bank. Simply put, a deep slump in trading activity in everything from stocks and bonds to currencies is changing the face of Wall Street. Today's markets are "boring," rants a senior credit trader; "It's been absolutely dead," warns another adding, "When you go a day or two and don't have a trade on the tape, it's frustrating," as stock trading in the second quarter fell 43.6% from second-quarter 2009 levels to their lowest level since 2007."

    The dark pools make it very difficult for the SEC to investigate (currently investigating 12 top HFT firms by the way).
    Jul 20 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]
    As a student of wave theory, I imagine you believe (as you should) in all wave cycles in all walks of life....war cycle included. I'm a long time follower of Larry Edleson who has proved time and again to be extremely accurate. That being said, I'm curious to hear your opinion on Larry's prediction that the war cycles, along with weakness in the Euro and ultimate flight to USD, Gold and perceived safe havens, will cause the USD and gold to rise together. This has only happened a few times in the past, however his cycle models show USD, metals and War escalations will rise together. War cycles are set to peak from now through 2020. Bottom line, I think ignoring wars completely is potentially damning. Maybe they are not individually catalytic in nature, however as a whole, and with increasing regularity it can't be discredited as fuel towards new record highs in gold when coupled with geopolitical pressures. I look forward to hearing your reply.
    Jun 15 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: A Gold Miner For The Gold Rebound [View article]
    If Goldman is "bearish" then it's a good bet they are bullish, you just need to read between the Goldman lines of their BS. For instance the "slam dunk sell" they issued, only to follow with a net accumulating that very same month if gold and paper. Tomato tom├Ąto
    Mar 23 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chelsea: Trading Strategies For The Pending FDA Decision [View article]
    I hardly ever comment/post on SA....but as a very experienced options trader of almost 20 years, and a successful trader of Bio catalysts, how do you not hit on Straddle/Strangle trades which can profit in either direction? Even on a delay, a nimble trader can scramble out a profit or at least break even. If this is worn writing an article on option trades, why not list the highest probability trades? Options do not necessarily = one way gambles! nor directional trades that must be hedged in either direction. Disappointing article.
    Feb 11 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC has an issue with restaurant operator filings [View news story]
    SERIOUSLY? All of the unchecked manipulation in the market and this is a focus for the SEC?
    Sep 24 07:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Continue To Double Down On Document Security Systems [View article]
    The reverse split was voted down by shareholders and is no longer an option. This entire line of questioning is irrelevant.
    Jul 5 04:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment