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  • Just Another Bear Market Rally In Gold  [View article]
    Nice article, I'd like to see your wave counts on the S&P....not sure if that is in your wheelhouse.
    Feb 2, 2015. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does The Year 1941 And Gold Have In Common?  [View article]
    Where is your count? Your "you are here" as it would be.
    Nov 24, 2014. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does The Year 1941 And Gold Have In Common?  [View article]
    Well written Avi.

    Question: Steve Hochberg believes gold has traced out five Intermediate waves down from September 2011. He goes on to say that it is also possible to label five waves down within Intermediate wave (5), terminating at the closing low at $1140.52 on November 5 and the intraday low at $1131.85 on November 7.

    The implication is that these lows are wave A, wave B will carry gold higher into 2015. His preliminary target range is $1433-$1500 for wave B when it occurs.

    Now the question......I look at his models and they suggest that we are ending intermediate wave (5) of A, entering wave B, and ultimately implying lower prices ahead still in a wave C to new lows, then ending II, and leading to wave III moving forward. I would like to hear you alternate count that lends to an end to the bear market please sir. I'm trying to weight the different EW practitioner models. You seem to have a solid finger on the pulse, but bottoms are difficult to time, if not impossible and I'd like to hear all angles. Thanks in advance.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Against The Ropes  [View article]
    How do you see volume near the bottom?
    Oct 5, 2014. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    My thoughts on manipulation (possibly misleading for lack of better descriptors) -HFT algorithms and Sentiment

    I believe EW is the best method of predicting market direction, however a sentiment based method can always be influenced....after all that is the crux of sentiment....HERD MENTALITY.
    I think the argument of manipulation stems from algorithmic HFT traders who can influence, front run, and often misinterpret sentiment, front running a market and establishing a false flag sentiment run which can ultimately cascade throughout a trading session. Basically, yes it is driven by sentiment, yes sentiment is the ultimately driver in markets, BUT....ever ask yourself why these HFT Algos where created to judge and front run SENTIMENT?

    Given that trading algorithms can act on human informational sources, such as Twitter, as news is released, it is not outlandish to imagine that these algorithms could also be producing information in an effort to manipulate the market. Given that algorithms are becoming better at turning basic information into natural language, it seems possible that an algorithm could be designed to Tweet out false information about a company to try to depress the stock price.

    I think it’s likely this kind of algorithmic sentiment manipulation is already happening on some level.

    Even this kind of sentiment manipulation is only a drop in the bucket compared to what may become possible in the near future. The astounding profits which can be made in this kind of algorithmic trading is driving huge investment in artificial intelligence. In the near future, algorithmic traders will be capable of much more complex manipulations to try to move market prices.

    Rather than taking creating the illusion of a sentiment shift in metals, an algorithm could instead attempt to influence those specific individuals who are going to be making decisions about metals price discovery. Perhaps by identifying those hedge funds who are on the fence about prices, a targeted campaign to manipulate the opinions of those in particular positions could have a real effect on the outcome for price discovery, thus supporting other interests (USD, Equities, foreign and sovereign relations). This may seem a bit ridiculous, but even a tiny effect on the perceptions and opinions of one individual can make a big difference if spread across a wide enough group.

    Like the other elements discussed here, political manipulation aimed at maintaining market position is absolutely not something new. These kinds of practices are a well established part of our world, whether we like it or not. What is new, is that just as computers have always done, algorithms make it possible to scale these kinds of manipulations to make them so much wider much faster, that we ultimately can’t be sure how much of an impact they will have.


    "American markets and European markets generally have a higher proportion of algorithmic trades than other markets, and estimates for 2008 range as high as an 80% proportion in some markets."

    "The algorithms do not simply trade on simple news stories but also interpret more difficult to understand news. Some firms are also attempting to automatically assign sentiment (deciding if the news is good or bad) to news stories so that automated trading can work directly on the news story.[64]"

    "News content or text is usually analyzed simultaneously by five different natural language or sentiment analysis algorithms. The software studies the degree to which a particular article conveys positive or negative language about a given company, for example, or the degree to which the text may impact volatility in a given stock. A score ranging from 0 to 100 is produced for each one of the natural language analyses conducted. This numerical information can then be used in a customized way by quantitative traders as a factor for consideration in their trading models."
    Oct 3, 2014. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Will Bottom Soon - What Do You Need To Know?  [View article]
    Excellent article
    Sep 29, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet  [View article]
    The ratio varies. http://bit.ly/1rthEJS
    Sep 28, 2014. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Lower Lows Will Be Seen Whether You Like It Or Not  [View article]
    I mention Larry and everyone focussed on him (similar to spam focussing on everything but your message). Lows in gold and silver?
    Sep 21, 2014. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Lower Lows Will Be Seen Whether You Like It Or Not  [View article]
    Early last week. He was never "hugely" bullish, I think the subscribers were more overzealous about his "dipping the toe" in the market than he was. In fact, everyone was complaining that he didn't come out with more bullish trades, to which his reply was basically it is a WAG on a potential bullish set up, however he could see certain support levels giving way (in the 1240 area) which they did, lending a new model for a bearish set up. Nice profit on the way up, but never broke the all out bullish "buy with both hands" level on 1360ish and then 1440ish. I think the readers were selectively reading the bullish notes, foregoing the stops, warnings, price points etc...

    Anyway, thoughts on ultimate lows?
    Sep 21, 2014. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Lower Lows Will Be Seen Whether You Like It Or Not  [View article]
    "can take GLD below the 2013 lows as early as Monday or Tuesday. And, if we get confirmation in GLD that we are heading to the final lows for this 3+ year correction, then we will likely see our final bottom in the October/November time frame, with the ideal target timing for a bottom around Thanksgiving."

    Don't tease me....wouldn't that be amazing to have an ideal scenario play out as scripted. Grabbed some March 117 puts on GLD and a shorter dated bull call spread 2x1 for almost nada to hedge a potential bounce.

    Question: I follow Edleson as well. His EW models are calling for targets of $920 to $970 gold and, worst case, $12.50 silver. Is this roughly in line with your models give or take? His target dates are pretty much in line with your Jan/Feb predictions barring any black swan events.

    Appreciate the insight.
    Sep 21, 2014. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Low In Silver; Lower Low In Gold Still To Come  [View article]
    "Intermediate term puts"

    How many months out are you typically allowing on the options plays you are swinging? 3-4?
    Sep 14, 2014. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Edition On Gold: What Are Long-Term Investors To Do?  [View article]
    Not bad, like it. Miners (and certain Junior miners) will make a lot of people wealthy/wealthier over the next 3 years....and of course certain ETFs. I think many investors don't realize the significance, nor the urgency of what is happening right now, unfolding right in front of them. It is not often that an investor gets the opportunity to hit the ground floor of a 3+year bull cycle. Loading up in tranches (shares and long dated options) will be everyone's best bet towards securing your families' futures over the long run.
    Jul 28, 2014. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over  [View article]
    Agreed 100%, and I'd look forward to that article. I trade short term derivatives in the metals, miners, ETFs, but I am a long term bull as well.
    Jul 27, 2014. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over  [View article]
    Semantics.....my wife isn't kinda pregnant.

    I'll agree that if it can't be proven to break any laws then it can't be prosecuted. However if the market were able to move on sentiment alone, would the market order dumping equivalent of a small nations GDP be necessary to ensure options expire worthless be necessary? Come on man, if it weren't manipulation, or at the very least ethically grey, then the entities doing the trades would do things differently in 3 ways (that I can think of):
    1. It wouldn't be executed in dark pools using HFT Algos
    2. The SEC, CTFC, et al wouldn't be investing said activities on the regular as they are currently and have been with increasing regularity
    3. The entities would offer a service, for a premium, which would be recognized by the aforementioned regulatory bodies as sanctioned, legitimate market activities. I would have to believe that this would be a no brainer trading service that would revolutionize the industry and correct GDP as well as improve individual wealth leading to healthy growth and a stabilized economy which is less dependent on central planning.

    Maybe at that point market sentiment would be what the market actually sees and believes, not just the sentiment that is allowed in gold, due to the sentiment of other instruments by entities with larger bank rolls and a macro agenda to leverage those. Or would this threaten central banks effectiveness, indirectly, adversely affecting just about every other fiat interest in the world?

    Anyway, didn't want this to turn into a geopolitical witch hunt rant. Point is, one can say it's not manipulation because it treads in a grey area where there is no accountable recourse, but I think Lehman, Ponzi, and Enron probably made the same arguments. They're going to run out of Barclays scapegoats soon....
    Jul 27, 2014. 12:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over  [View article]
    No manipulation? I'll bet you (Gentlemans bet) we get monkey hammered around 8:00-8:30am tomorrow going into options expiration, followed by FOMC Tues and Wed. Let say ~$1Bil notional dumped at a market order in under 2 seconds? Maybe I'm wrong this time?
    Jul 27, 2014. 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment