ecoco

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

We are making too many complex irrelevant comments to explain the state of the economy and job market, and many are forgetting to mention the source of all evils for the present situation being irrational exuberance on part of the consumer for the past 15 years.

We have to earn more than we consume (save), and here I blame the financial institutions that made all this possible and not the consumer.

America needs to work its butt out of recession, and this is to become possible once the whole economy is deleveraged and the US$ value falls to levels attractive to bringing back business to mainland USA.

We need to introduce tariffs and limit imports, promote local consumption and local products, screw the WTO and World Bank, reduce outsourcing and tax US corporations working outside the US. Give tax incentives ONLY to those bringing back business to the US and create jobs. This will immediately put the economy back on track.

Prolonging unemployment and unemployment benefits will make US workforce lazy, complacent and inefficient, and may lose skills that took years to learn.

Billions should be taken back from financial institution INVESTING the cash on Wall Street and commodities, and use it to go into partnership with companies willing to INVEST in people and US Jobs. Promote export and subsidies if need be, everyone else is doing it in a different form and guise.

For economic recovery, the administration should have three things on their priority list, 1. JOBS, 2. JOBS 3. JOBS.

Cause for Concern: No Change from the Fed

What do you expect, at fed rate 0-0.25 the Fed ran out of ammunition and not much can be done, and with trillions of $$ created, the printing press must stop now, otherwise we will witness the demise of the $ and the US economy forced into depression.

FOMC Statement: English Translation

Here is my translation


In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant

Should read

In these circumstance of pathetic growth following trillions of wasted intervention, the Federal Reserve admits that he has already employed all available tools to promote the economy and with the federal fund rate at 0 to ¼ has run out of ammunition to fight the recession. We now hope that things will sort themselves out as we can do nothing without promoting inflation, and pray now with all the liquidity being created the inflation does not creep it’s head out and the $ maintains a viable value for a reasonable time for things to sort on their own and avoid depression.

Bear Market Rallies and Lessons of History

Radio alone was not the cause,

It was the automotive industry evolution
Commercial air travel, trains and transportation
Fast Food, restaurants, leisure, hotels and GAMBLING
Music, film and theatre industry.

Drugs, mafia, ponzi schemes, insider trading and crooks (we still have these now)

And most importantly the consumer indulging in the above and spending more than earning

That was the cause of the roaring 20’s bubble!!

On Nov 02 03:30 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> Don't recall Radio ever having been cited as the cause of Stock Market
> crash. Do you have any evidence on that one? I don't think we had
> commercial radio in the UK until the 1960s, but I am sure you would
> have been ahead of us.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

If you read the disclamer at the end of the article, you migh get a hint!!!

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: SPY, VTI, RSP, TZA, XLY, FAZ, SRS, UDN, GLD, DBC, USL, XLE, EFA, EEM, IEV, EWC and FXI


On Oct 29 05:56 AM fjpenney wrote:

> David:
>
> Yesterday, your article that was posted before the market opened
> indicated that you expected a rally. After yesterday's sell-off,
> your article today indicates that you expected the sell-off. Are
> the two articles contradictory?
>
> You are the most followed contributor here on SA and you deserve
> credit for that. If you wouldn't mind, I kindly ask that you explain
> what insight you hope investors are going to gain from all the charts
> and commentary. Do you hope to educate them on your expectations
> for the market's move the next day, the next week, the next month,
> ...?
>
> Personally I think investors would hope that at the end of your posts
> you would offer an opinion of the market's future direction. That's
> easier said than done of course.

Apple F4Q09 (Qtr End 9/26/09) Earnings Call Transcript

Apple earnings are impressive, and with such a performance in all sectors, mainly Computers, Phones, MP3 players and Music retail, we should be looking for the losers (competitors). In this market of limited growth Apple must have eroded market shares of competitors :

In computers, we should worry about SONY, DELL and Microsoft.

In Phones, expect bad results from the likes of Motorola, Nokia and SONY-Erricson

In MP3 players, look at SONY, LG, Creative, Samsung and many others in the far east.

In Music and content retail, I’m not sure but Amazon might be hurt.

I feel SONY with drop the Bomb with it’s coming earnings

I would have liked Apple to outline Domestic U.S. Market earnings growth, this was clearly avoided as the earnings call concentrated on Global results including the U.S.

Will Cheaper Laptops Snuff Out Netbooks?

Most of us grownups seem to forget a major market segment, OUR KIDS, I have three of them and they all prefer the smaller lighter longer battery life netbooks, and for me I bought 3 for the price of a decent laptop, and I don’t get the kids to fight over computer usage.

As for us grownups, netbooks are a very useful on the move, they are light and have much longer battery life, I would not consider traveling or even visiting a friend carrying 15.4” notebook.

The sad thing is Dell, Apple, Sony and many other BIG names underestimated the market potential of netbooks, they are both angry and jealous as they lost market share to the likes of Asus, Acer, Samsung and LG.

The next generation of netbooks are on the way, smarter, powerful with more storage and a larger higher resolution 12” LCD panel. The 1st generation had a limitation imposed by Microsoft XP license agreement to limit screen size and processing power (to protect Vista), this I believe is no longer the case.

As I see it, Desktops are dead and are to be replaced by laptops. Netbooks are to replace cheap laptops and stupid PDA’s for people on the move.

Finally, I can say the overall winner is INTEL who captured 100% market dominance over AMD in this market segment.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

WHERE IS THE BEEF link

www.youtube.com/watch?...


On Oct 14 08:34 AM ecoco wrote:

> This is fun, earnings season is here to stay, and we have 20 trading
> days each with few BIG CAP earnings to "IMPRESS" driving the market
> UP by 1 to 2% each day.
>
> Guess what??, we have 30% rally out of beating crappy earnings by
> a mere 0.5% terrific.
>
> This brings me back to an old Burger Comercial with a big BUN but
> "WHERE IS THE BEEF", I mean the CONSUMER.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

This is fun, earnings season is here to stay, and we have 20 trading days each with few BIG CAP earnings to "IMPRESS" driving the market UP by 1 to 2% each day.

Guess what??, we have 30% rally out of beating crappy earnings by a mere 0.5% terrific.

This brings me back to an old Burger Comercial with a big BUN but "WHERE IS THE BEEF", I mean the CONSUMER.

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Present valuation has overtaken high end expectations, to keep things boyant at these levels we need top notch data, otherwise good news is not good enough, bad news is catastrofic.

Remember few weeks ago when markets sheered bad news as not as bad as expected, now expect the oposite.

Has the Rally Already Exhausted Itself?

You are right Rick, and you said,

We made our money on "absurd fundamentals"

For me 40% was good enough, and it is stage exit left

Don't know about you, you are still holding the matches.





On Aug 19 08:46 AM rick12345 wrote:

> Its amazing how nobody was complaining about the pace of acceleration
> when markets surged 30% in the span of 2 months, on the back of completely
> absurd fundamentals - i.e. better than expected losses. Is this because
> everyone was happy making money at the time, whereas presently they've
> adjusted their strategy to making profits by shorting the market.
>
> Boys who play with matches can have their fingers seriously burned
> if not careful.

Has the Rally Already Exhausted Itself?

This article is about Sep2007 bubble with a time frame of 5-10 years after.

We are now in a micro bubble up 50% from March 2009 lows, don’t wait for DOW 10000, cash you money and run away.
On Aug 19 06:17 AM rick12345 wrote:

> I'm still frustrated at how people can call this a massive bubble;
> We haven't even recoverd back to December levels, which represented
> the absolute peak of the economc crisis. My play on all of this is
> that we see a quick rise to over 10000 in the next few months, once
> the market finally finds its footing, probably over the next day
> or two.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Given market data and sentiment, it looks like nice head is forming in SPY, the H&S may takes us down to SPY 90-87 and god knows where next.

Why Another Stock Market Collapse Could Be Imminent

At 50%, a smart man knows when to take profit.

If you have a better argument, let us have it, otherwise no need to be offensive.


On Aug 05 03:41 PM CLH wrote:

> A smart man knows that making money is the name of the game. The
> market is up nearly 50%, if you are too frightened to buy then dont
> read garbage like the above.

Commerce Department's Revised GDP Shows a Delineated Story for the Recession

I started at SPY 82 with a lot of SSO's, QLD's and some UYG's, exit all at SPY 97 with good profits to last me 3 years.

If this is a BEAR rally or a BULL rally I don’t care, it is enough for now and I can afford to wait for a correction.

On Aug 03 01:41 PM Greyowl wrote:

> I am going long for one, making wonderful profits.
>
> If you read mostly bearish comments on SA, do not assume that there
> are no buyers. They are not commenting that much, they are busy making
> money. ;-)
>
> On Aug 03 01:22 PM ecoco wrote: