Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • ECRI's Recession Call: Proprietary Indicators Still Not Cooperating  [View article]
    Trillions of monetary easing and the money pumping train continues??? ... we are in a recession or the economy could survive on higher interest rates and no money printing to create economic gains. However, it appears to me that the only economic activity moving the US economy forward is debasing the dollar creating the fraud that is called economic growth .......

    it is either that or the worlds largest ponzi screaming, "feed me"
    Mar 17, 2013. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    "home prices are not inversely related to inflation and higher interest rates, but will rise in parallel."

    if home values are rising in parallel with inflation the how did we have low inflation during the run up to the housing bubble bursting? The 10 percent gains in real estate prices were not matched or even close to the official inflation numbers? How can we have 2 percent inflation with housing prices rising at 5-7 percent? This would make the above statement false..... is this more BS concerning the real world and inflation?
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    Thaizole, I don't believe that it was a conspiracy to stack the numbers but stuff happens. I agree that the model is showing some out of line numbers.

    It might sound dumb but this is part of my own education on financial matters. There is so much information out there it is hard to believe what is the truth. I have found when educating yourself there three basics. The school world, the "way it is suppose to be" world and then there is the real world application. Thank You, for the information and food for thought as my real world education continues.

    What started me on this track was reading Bernanke's speech to the Kansas FED about Japanese stagflation. I understand most of the speech in basic terms but creating inflation to drive aggregate demand as Bernanke eluded to in that speech will never work if people do not have the disposable income.
    Jan 15, 2013. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    No Puka shells for me, I want to go back to the Dutch tulip standard..... LOL I don't see any difference between paper and gold money just the "perception" of which is money..... both are in essence a shifting paradigm......
    Jan 15, 2013. 08:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    Thiazole, Oh, and by the way, John Williams did not invent the formula ..... the government did. And if that methodology is sssssssooooooo wrong then how can we trust the new government methodology?
    Jan 14, 2013. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    Hi Thiazole, According to you the original methodology is wrong? I wonder what the previous CPI numbers would look like if the numbers from the old methodology was used ? I do not claim to be an expert and I do not completely trust any of the CPI numbers from anyone.

    I do see a total disconnect with the current CPI and reality.

    As far as housing being grossly under priced if using William's/governments old methodology would be a misnomer because the limiting factor keeping people from buying homes their ability to pay not the CPI. Now, if you look at the wage growth, or lack of you will see a growing gap in income and price which was closed with zero percent interest from the FED. The gap was closed in 2001 when Greenspan dropped interest rates making homes seem more affordable. However, lower payments, do not make a house affordable if you do not have the income to buy.
    Jan 14, 2013. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    HI AB, I would say that there is plenty of blame to go around. From the bankers to the wankers; to the real estate agents to their clients; to the halls of Congress and the regulators; To the lobbyists who had regulators back off..... Yes there is plenty of blame to go around and few have been found prosecuted.

    I have watched our economic decline over the last 30 years as our manufacturing base was moved overseas. I remember many economists said that the service economy would provide for robust economic growth however by 2001 it was evident that a service based economy was a failure. The FED under Greenspan dropped interest rates in 2001 and the "borrow and spend" economy lit a fire creating an asset bubble that I believe is still deflating today. Economically we are screwed ..... monetizing bank debt onto the taxpayer using the FED as a back door bailout will not revive an economy that has been on the downward trend for 30 years. Of course this is the view from the street and not the white ivory towers of Wall Street.
    Jan 12, 2013. 05:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    I quit my job in 2005 to start a small business working on foreclosed homes. I thought it was obvious the market was going to crash! I remember telling everyone in the newsroom about the coming housing bust and they laughed at me. Today, we are seeing new wave after new wave of people losing homes. The shakeout is not yet done but today the people that are losing their homes are those that had good jobs until the 2008 bust and their cash and savings is now gone and many are losing the fight to stay in their homes. This is not the ones who over-bought or scammed their way into home they could not afford.

    The FED plan of "trickle down chump change" will never revive an economy if they just buy bad bank debt.
    Jan 12, 2013. 03:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    In reality you can not use the government CPI because of the changes in methodology. I have been doing some research on poverty and poverty levels that were set back in 1963. I have found a wide disparity between the gov CPI calculator and those of John Williams of shadowstats.com. The continual under-reporting of actual inflation since the CPI methodology was changed has created a wide disparity in perception poverty.
    Jan 12, 2013. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Today Is More Affordable Than At Any Time In History  [View article]
    I have to laugh at how business people think just because the payments are low ... it is a good market .....

    Have you looked at how many people already bought in the cheap money bubble? I see this a lot in the economy today cars and appliances are two other examples where people who were in the market to purchase have already made their purchase....

    what do idiots not realize that the forward type of selling that is used today is just stealing future customers tomorrow? I guess they didn't realize that that pool of potential buyers would dwindle down.

    And with 50 percent of the population making under $50K per year don't expect many more future sales when wages don't rise.
    Jan 11, 2013. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Less Good Reason To Be Bearish On Inflation  [View article]
    Thank You Lawrence,

    " If Joe Sixpack cannot raise his price, he is not a victim of inflation; he is a victim of lost bargaining power attributable to a shift in the supply and demand for what he has to sell"

    I guess pay raises for the lower half of working people are lost. I mean that between the high unemployment and an open border there is a more than adequate supply of semi-skilled and non-skilled labor. There is a large contingent of college graduates looking for work too.

    I suppose that is why I work for myself in a small business because I value my labor and knowledge more than someone is willingly to pay. However, I have seen much price suppression in my business during the last 5 years as banks and mortgage service providers cut costs.
    Jan 11, 2013. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Less Good Reason To Be Bearish On Inflation  [View article]
    IT, Isn't the FED induced inflation fake ruse? I mean it doesn't add value to the dollar but actually reduces value. Is FED induced inflation just smoke and mirrors to keep the numbers in the right range?

    From what I gathered from Bernanke's FED speech, Japanese Stagflation, a case of self-induced Paralysis .....
    Jan 10, 2013. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Less Good Reason To Be Bearish On Inflation  [View article]
    Bernanke said he has never seen a currently that could be debased by money printing in his speech to the Kansas FED about Japanese Stagflation. If you read that speech you can see that it is the game plan he is following. However, I do not believe that our economy can be moved forward by dragging it along. The artificial growth from inflation is pure waste in my opinion. Ben doesn't even follow the advice he gave the Japanese.

    This money pumping is driven to produce one thing and that is aggregate demand. It will fail. The simple false belief that because of inflation moves wages up and the people feel richer because they have been paid a few more dollars is suspect at best. I see the results of this policy have suppressed profit margins as corporate retailers strive to push profits from smaller and smaller margins. I am sorry but this is not sustainable.

    My small business working on foreclosed homes is floundering. The profit margins have been devastated through inflation and competition. I see this happening through out the economy where the only way to compete today is with economies of scale.
    Jan 10, 2013. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Less Good Reason To Be Bearish On Inflation  [View article]
    HI IT, I enjoy this thread. I wonder if wage growth for much of the population has been gutted through inflation after many years if disparity between the rise of wages and and the growth of inflation. If you look at facts. I see the working stiff is been losing 1-2 percent income per year against inflation. This long term trend has eaten away at disposable spending and has made the poor even more poor. The funny thing to me is that the poor don't even realize it.

    I would use the food stamp program as an example.... Established in 1984 the SNAP program had a cap of $2000. The cap was never tied to the inflation index so in 2013 (here in Virginia) the cap is still $2000. I find it asinine that today the people on the SNAP program are still at the $2000 asset cap. If adjusted for inflation the cap would be about $5500 and if you look at the value of the $2000 in inflation adjusted 2013 dollars it is only $750.

    Today' poor are much poorer and the poor working man is waking up homeless in a country his forefather built.
    Jan 10, 2013. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Less Good Reason To Be Bearish On Inflation  [View article]
    I am not a trader but are the commodities markets becoming maxed out because of the FED money printing and the games played with "paper commodities"?

    It would seem that all of the money printing by the FED blows up an asset bubble in the commodities market. I have suggested before on other sites that the FED is trying a strategy of blowing money into the collapsing asset bubble (includes housing) hoping and praying the rest of the economy will catch up to the inflated prices within the bubble. However, the FED is doing nothing more than robbing the future to balance the books today.
    Jan 8, 2013. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment