Ridge Hill Capital

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

hes been short for the alst 300 bucks

gold is sharing the place of the US dollar as a currency

right now gold is NOT up in all currencies but has been and will be as it enters a final bubble phase ie buy gold stocks

gold has been in a bull market this decade so all his conditions havent been met yet we have one bull market

he falsely uses the fall in gold last year during liquidation of everything as a scenario .... yet gold is now higher than the last peak...only the colombia stock market is higher than its last peak

for a real investors view on why to be long gold check out

www.scribd.com/doc/217...

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

david rosenberg writes this morning formerly chief economist merrill lynch now gluskin sheff writes

WHAT IT IS ABOUT GOLD?

After all, you can’t calculate a P/E. There is no dividend discount model. There is no interest rate or income stream. No — gold is a store of value and one that has been durable and reliable for thousands of years. No fiat currency system has outlived gold. The question is what is so sacred about fiat paper money? A backing of the government printing press, is that the alluring factor? The Fed has been pumping money into the system at an unprecedented fashion and even if it is sitting idle on commercial bank balance sheets as excess reserves, that money is still in the system.

So what about gold? How much of that is in the system? How about the fact that global gold production, after doubling from 1980 to 1999, has completely stagnated over the past decade? Has fiat currency done that? And, how long does it normally take for a gold mine to yield production? Answer -- five years or so? Do you think it takes Bernanke et al that long to print greenbacks? At least we know with some degree of confidence about the supply of gold; there are reserves equivalent to about 40% of the total amount of gold above the ground (and half of that is in South Africa).

As we said, it takes time, usually five years, and plenty of financial resources to bring gold mines into production. In this sense the supply side of the gold equation is relatively constant — in economic parlance. Fiat government-issued currency is not — especially in the context of a U.S. monetary and fiscal authority that will stop at nothing to revive a cycle of overspending and overborrowing.

In the current sense, the pullback in consumer spending is being replaced either by government spending or incentives to prevent households from modifying their spending behaviour away from frugality; and the pullback in credit demand by the consumer sector is being offset by the Fed’s involvement in the mortgage market to ensure that borrowing costs remain very low, and by the FHA to ensure that down-payment requirements are as close to zero as possible. The supply of gold is reasonably easy to figure out — the supply of fiat currency is less easy to figure out. The behaviour of not just the U.S. government but governments everywhere seems to be that reflationary policies will ultimately be the key towards redressing the ongoing private sector deleveraging cycle.

Back to the gold market. There is an estimated 120,000-140,000 tons of gold above ground. That would equate to roughly $4 trillion. The total amount of U.S. dollars in circulation globally is estimated at $8 trillion, and the total size of the global money supply would thereby be closer to $30 trillion. The size of the world stock market is around $40 trillion. At last count, the total size of the global bond market was north of $80 trillion. The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $800 trillion, face or nominal value. Hopefully all this places the total value of gold above ground into a certain perspective.

So, here is what makes gold so attractive, beyond the fact that it is a hedge against irresponsible fiscal, monetary policies and reckless trade policies, is that relative to fiat currency, bonds and equities, it is scarce. We can also get into geopolitical uncertainties and reckless trade policies, but they are just the proverbial cherry on the ice cream.

Scarcity. That is the answer to the question "why gold?" End of story. Just to back the amount of currency that is out there right now, gold has the potential to triple from here, never mind merely double. Sounds outlandish, to be sure, but when gold was carving out its bottom at $255/oz in September 1999 (when the S&P 500 was flirting near 1,300 — sorry to have to add that one in), was anyone calling for it to rise four-fold in the next decade? Secular bull markets usually last 16 to 18 years and this one is just in year 10, so let’s say that we are barely past the halfway point in both duration and magnitude in this gold cycle

Why a Gold Bug Isn't Buying Gold Now

gold hasnt had any move in the last year and half......like gold at 400 and then 700 .... gold consolidated and then moved higher

at 1050 the same it consolidated and is now ready to move higher

a quiet bull market for 8 years

US dollar is well above its lowes set in 2007/08 long before the crisis....the flight to liquidate is over....and ongoing

a gold bug i am not....invested in commodity cycle vs avoiding us equities I am...recall the 70s ....

in the next month this forecast may be true....but

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

gold is in a quiet bull market for 8 years

i dont see a bubble ... most commercials is sell your gold..CNBC hates gold

gold in way underowned

i own two small gold/silver stocks...simply they represent value...fortuna silver and dynasty mines DMM...both growth stories and most small cap producers are being valued at discounts to NAV ...whereas both stocks wer valued in 2007 at mult to future cashflow like 10/14...if they receive those valuations (as they are now producing cashflow) they will be triples...so much for bubble in the smaller stocks

i think gold is another currency (secular) and from a cyclical basis with negative or zero real rates always cause gold to go higher

seasonality - gold does well in sept and from middle nov to feb

Three Asset Classes that Can Actually Outpace Coming Inflationary Price Increases

lt interest peaked in jume at 470 and now 421

nice rally

not sure why you say lt rates have been rising for 9 mths

so your arguments are wrong

stay informed

Doubting RIM: Time to Do a Pair Trade With Apple?

why not a pair trade..short apple long rim

it has worked

i am looking at buying rim at 60 or less depending on my analysis

i ahve traded rim since the ipo in 1998...and usually missed the excitement phase when rim is loved......apple is hated...........the reverse is true now ...thats why i am looking at rim

dont like apple...........in fact dont care it made a new all time high last night

3 Promising Gold Stocks

barrick just sold their silver stream to silver wheaton and turned around and bought el morro a copper project....i know el morro as i was an original investor in mettalica who owned 30% (now new gold)
so what the hay is barrick doing???????

the previous terrible management at barrick tried to buy novadog and they were lucky to get out.....novadog has large capital costs etc......it has big leverage asa result




On Oct 14 11:46 AM Dr. Stephen Leeb wrote:

> I should have made it clear that Barrick is under new management.
> The first decision by the new CEO was not to just stop hedging but
> to eliminate all previous hedges. For that purposes the company raised
> several billion dollars. In view of the company's long term history
> of hedging this was certainly a courageous decision - which had to
> be approved by a board that has favored hedging for about a generation.
> I think it likely that Barrick be revalued relative to other majors
> in the next six months. They have wonderful gold and PGM properties.
> As for Nova - see my comment above. This is a junior with world class
> deposits of gold and copper and the backing of very deep pockets
> including Barrick. As an aside the company fended off a takeover
> by Barrick, who was willing to pay 20 for the company pre credit
> crisis. Today the company's assets are better defined than then but
> we doubt that the new stakeholders would even listen to a bid of
> 20. It has home run potential but is risky.

First Majestic: The First of Many Majestic Quarters to Come

fortuna silver is a better play

3 Promising Gold Stocks

Jeff

Fortuna silver is a homer and Dynasty Mines could be a 5 bagger....
both junior producers growing in the next year

i own tonnes of both at much lower prices

as a experienced canadian pro investor I have been investing in gold stocks for decades never have i seen a disconnect between small caps to large gold stocks

in 2007 small caps emerging producers were given 10 mult to cash flow and now a discount to NAV....fortuna was 5 buck target based on 14 times cash flow and now NAV while it has finally proced cash flow and looks like 40 cents next year jumping to 80 cents with a new mine in mexico for a stock at 160cdn..with 40 cents in cash


On Oct 13 01:54 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:

> Agreed, E.D. If this is the best the author can come up with among
> precious metals miners, he should stick with pumping Wall Street
> banks.
>
> Barrick has "eliminated its hedging" a few times already, and many
> are unconvinced that its latest declaration of being "unhedged" is
> any more accurate.
>
> NG requires BILLIONS to get its project(s) off the ground. Yes, partnership
> with Barrick obviously helps, but there are DOZENS of lucrative deposits
> all over the Earth which require far LESS capital AND will provide
> superior rates of return.
>
> The vast majority of upside-potential in this sector is among the
> JUNIOR miners (especially the junior producers). These companies
> require both more RESEARCH, and a better understanding of the sector
> than with the large-caps - which is why pseudo-'experts' on precious
> metals (like this author) scrupulously AVOID them.

3 Promising Gold Stocks

novagold is a dog........insider selling ...bark bark

fortuna silver and dynasty mines

to the moon

Silver Wheaton: A Hidden Gem

FRANCO was around since the 80s taken private by newmount and then IPOed


On Jul 02 09:31 PM Hyperinflation wrote:

> Their dyanmic management made this possible. Silver Wheaton had been
> so accomplished by the time other entered the market, they merely
> bought them. By the way their are many copy cats like royal gold
> and Franco-Nevada.

Silver Wheaton: A Hidden Gem

sorry i didtn check my spelling I cant type


On Jul 04 09:06 AM Ridge Hill Capital wrote:

> theres GOLD WHEATON same guys GLW.v
>
> once again it started by buying the palladium/gold streams from FNX
> mining and FNX, while didnt close the mines associated with the palladium/gold
> streams , closed its other mines.
>
> Gold wheaton went on to buy First Uranium gold streams and had to
> issue stock a well below NAV.........now First Uranium is delaying
> production.......INCO is set to strike? and no ore will processed
> for FNX......
>
> this demosntrates the riskyness of royalty streams....
>
> also FRANCO and SLW are very expesnive stocks relative to producers...........in
> a deflationary environment watch these stocks collapse like they
> did in the fall 2008
>
> BUYER BEWARE
>
> FRANCO is the KING of royalties....it was silver wheaton that emulated
> FRANCO.....franco was taken private by Newmount and then newmount
> new ceo sold franco assets back into FNV and it went public........
>
>

Silver Wheaton: A Hidden Gem

theres GOLD WHEATON same guys GLW.v

once again it started by buying the palladium/gold streams from FNX mining and FNX, while didnt close the mines associated with the palladium/gold streams , closed its other mines.

Gold wheaton went on to buy First Uranium gold streams and had to issue stock a well below NAV.........now First Uranium is delaying production.......INCO is set to strike? and no ore will processed for FNX......

this demosntrates the riskyness of royalty streams....

also FRANCO and SLW are very expesnive stocks relative to producers...........in a deflationary environment watch these stocks collapse like they did in the fall 2008

BUYER BEWARE

FRANCO is the KING of royalties....it was silver wheaton that emulated FRANCO.....franco was taken private by Newmount and then newmount new ceo sold franco assets back into FNV and it went public........



On Jul 02 09:31 PM Hyperinflation wrote:

> Their dyanmic management made this possible. Silver Wheaton had been
> so accomplished by the time other entered the market, they merely
> bought them. By the way their are many copy cats like royal gold
> and Franco-Nevada.

Silver Wheaton: A Hidden Gem

silver wheaton derives its revenue from by product silver streams of base metal producers

genreally SLW pays 1 times NAV and trades at two times nav so there is a mathimatical accretion to earnings....slw got into trouble with too much debt and had to iisue shares.....

as such in an environment where gold/silver shines and all else fails..the base metal mines where SLW gets their income will close....for instance silverstone was recently acquired by SLW and its big source of silver was a copper mine by product.....

in an environment where all commodities are rising and more so silver slw will do well....

i owned silverstone (a smaller junior silver royalty) and now moved in fortuna silver fvi.v ...

Timber ETF: Solid in All Seasons

if you like the chinese buying timber....well buy Sino-forest

they ahve their own timber and lots of it right in china