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BDUBS

BDUBS
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  • Why Coffee May Start Percolating Again Soon [View article]
    Great set up and call- any thoughts on an exit level for the futures?
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Entravision Communications Corporation [View article]
    You are correct in that evc's trading at a significantly higher EV/EBITDA multiple than 2.7X. In fact it has traded over 3X that multiple for many years. Currently, the EV is roughly 930M and EBITDA is on track to approach 100M in 2016, when political ad spending will be a record for EVC. This is 9.0-9.5 X ebitda (625M market capitalization+@300M in "net" debt). What is really interesting about EVC is the spectrum values of "excess spectrum"(EVC has 20 duopolies) could be as much as 500M+. Should EVC monetize this spectrum, IMO it would be a huge positive.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fidelity National Financial Ventures: Harvesting Has Begun, Shares Are At A Steep Discount [View article]
    I like Foley too-over the years, he's been a huge moneymaker for shareholders. Also, the 5.9M J.Alexander's Ebitda is incorrect. Its well over 20M(and will be spun off tax free in the 2nd half). You may be using a 4th quarter figure. Lastly, the share count is now under 80M shares outstanding and the company has a 10M share buyback in place.
    Apr 5, 2015. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial 10-K: Business As Usual [View article]
    "Discussion?"-actually I would consider most of these posts emotion filled rants) Here's a little news flash for you- in a world of generationally low interest rates, most securities that yield in excess of 10% do so for a very good reason. Wouldn't you agree? In Taxi's case I would submit it has everything to do with the fact that the dividend is linked to an asset that may ultimately have little to no value. Maybe you can enlighten me and explain why a car ride from a driver with a small plate sized piece of metal is preferable to one without, from either a passenger or drivers point of view? BTW- Peter Lynch, manager of Fidelity Magellan in its best decades when that fund crushed the market wrote a very popular book "One up on Wall Street" almost entirely devoted to the value of "anecdotal information".
    Mar 20, 2015. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial 10-K: Business As Usual [View article]
    Is that the best you can do?…2+2 "has to"=4
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial 10-K: Business As Usual [View article]
    I really don't understand how people can say with a straight face, that the Ubers of the world will not have a profound detrimental impact on the yellow cab market. According to economics 101, when supply rises, all else being equal, pricing will fall. Obviously, supply has exploded in NYC as people now have a myriad of choices. Those choices have almost no differentiation nor customer loyalty, similar to airlines. Anecdotally, I have two kids in their twenties who were frequent users of yellow cabs(I live in NYC). They tell me they still use Taxis but their usage is down by over half. They use taxi's when they have an immediate need to travel and will "hail a cab", but will almost always choose Uber when the travel is planned in advance. They tell me the "experience" is generally better, at a similar or slightly higher price, though somewhat "hit or miss", depending on the driver and vehicle. Apparently, their are a significant number of these "ride share" companies and consumers can pay substantially lower fares if they are willing to carpool, which will also pressure the yellow cab market. The net effect of this must be a significant pay cut for traditional yellow cab drivers. This has to lead to an a reduced ability to service their loans, and ultimately, lead to defaults. To quote historical data on defaults is, in my opinion, rear view mirror investing. When people are under financial duress they usually "hang on" for quite some time as they "beg borrow or steal" to keep the asset they are protecting afloat. This can last for years (e.g. home mortgages) until people run out of options and default.
    Mar 20, 2015. 08:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial's Recovery No Surprise, A Sign Of Positive Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    I don't believe medallions are trading at $800,000. Where is there any evidence one can SELL for close to that.
    Mar 5, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial's Recovery No Surprise, A Sign Of Positive Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    If that wasn't clear, yes, $500,000 is the maximum loan on a NYC medallion
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial's Recovery No Surprise, A Sign Of Positive Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    I mean they will only value a NYC medallion at $ 625,000 and they underwrite an 80% or $500,000. The reasons are well documented in these notes. IMO, It is ludicrous to suggest UBER is not having an impact. The market for transactions has dried up partly as a result of this.
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial's Recovery No Surprise, A Sign Of Positive Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    At the present time, one could not sell any medallions at 800K(you could BUY PLENTY) and numerous lenders have cut the values they are willing to underwrite at to 80% of $625,000.
    Mar 2, 2015. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SFX Entertainment Worth The Patience As It Seems On The Cusp Of Delivering Results [View article]
    don't own vggl-my average on sfxe is $3.37
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SFX Entertainment Worth The Patience As It Seems On The Cusp Of Delivering Results [View article]
    Here's a little newsflash for Sillerman haters: while he may be a different cut from most C.E.O.'s, he's a proven moneymaker where shareholders who follow HIS money routinely do well. No one forced anybody to buy the I.P.O. which was obviously aggressively priced. Conversely, today with an enterprise value of about 550M and likely 2015 ebitda of around 80M, or slightly under 7X,the stock is cheap on expected numbers. Additionally, the strategy of taking proven large festivals into new geographies and lengthening their duration, while tailoring sponsorship deals to advertisers who are desperately trying to reach cord cutting millennials, makes perfect sense.
    Feb 8, 2015. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Safeway-Albertsons Merger Receives FTC Clearance [View article]
    I believe most of the proceeds(SWY has a very low tax basis as they have owned their stake over 30 years) from Casa Ley will be taxed at 39.5%-this should be factored into any valuation of this asset.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Not-So-Obvious Way To Make Money With Safeway [View article]
    Thanks for the quick response. Yes, its a married put to long shares (1 for 1).
    I was able to buy some Febs. at a nickel yesterday.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Not-So-Obvious Way To Make Money With Safeway [View article]
    Thanks for the very interesting idea- Whats your best guess on timing of the close? Am I missing something or can one buy a $34 strike put (Feb. or Mar.) at $.05 and create the CVR for about $.30? while, at the same time cutting the "deal break" risk (however unlikely) to about $1.20/share. I imagine virtually NOONE(sans an opportunistic individual investor) wants this in there portfolio(valuation+ tax+ liquidity issues) which is creating this opportunity. Thanks again-well done!
    Jan 22, 2015. 05:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
94 Comments
27 Likes