Jan S

Jan S
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  • Macro Wars  [View article]
    it took 60 years for Detroit to fail. You can only ignore reality for so long. Quite a while it turns out.
    Jul 23, 2013. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Europe Outlook: How The Fiasco Will Unfold, Part 1  [View article]
    Thanks. Thats going to save me some time.
    Jan 18, 2012. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tebowing The S&P 500  [View article]
    Funny.Thanks. Great idea that Teebow is influencing the stock market.
    Jan 18, 2012. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Grid-Scale Energy Storage Boom  [View article]
    thanks! Just to add to the Joke I recall a french outfit working on a CAES auto in an IEEE Journal article. It didnt look too good there but of course it would never be so boldly stated that something was a bad idea esp if it was sponsored by the French gov;t.
    Dec 24, 2011. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Grid-Scale Energy Storage Boom  [View article]
    Thanks, Nice article as usual. My question - what IS CAES?
    My comment to AXPW holders is buy what you can afford to lose and hold it until it is clearly failed and dead and you lost it all or until it turns into a normal company with normal P/E assessments and perhaps you made a bundle. At this stage it's a spec and has to be treated that way.
    Dec 23, 2011. 11:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Christine Richard's Confidence Game: How a Hedge Fund Manager Called Wall Street's Bluff  [View article]
    Hi Tom, A year + later and I find your lengthy and informative reply. I agree with you that in many cases financials are not capable of analytic analysis except for short periods of an expanding economy. Otherwise they are fundamentally unstable.. Good to hear you think MBI has something real behind it. I still hold it. Lose it all or come whole on this one. Dumped BAC a while back while things were calmed down. I dont have much good to say about any of these large banks. Best thing would be for them to go bankrupt and start the whole game over with new managers and an express no government back stop. As if that would ever happen. I'll put blame all around now. No one party gets it all. There are 2 "quotes" I've read in the last couple years with regard to financials. The 1st one was near the end of Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis" where he says due to the fundamental instability of financial institutions they should not be part of the investment portfolio of risk adverse investors !! Big learning there for me. 2nd one, source I've lost, was to the effect that if taken as a whole the banking sector has realized no net profits over time -ie when recession/depression hits the loses easily wipe out the gains over prior expansions. Makes some sense really since the financials all make money out of leverage on the upswing it should go away quickly as soon as the trend is adverse. If you know the source of that one let us know. Tom Gardner at Motley Fool would like to know too. Thanks.
    Sep 5, 2011. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency War: A View From the Trenches  [View article]
    Interesting. Best one of yours I've read yet. Any further insight into what really drives currency markets is greatly appreciated. Thanks.
    Oct 9, 2010. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mutual Funds Are 'All In'  [View article]
    That would support the market stalling around here as from what I have read so far there is not much new money coming into the funds for them to deploy. Thats the big move signal I'm looking for and that could take months or years. On the other hand, there have not been any serious distributions nor big negative news to provide a "theme" for a down leg. So, the market direction is more or less aimless depending on the mood swing of the week. BTW IBD's still calling it an uptrend and their market direction method is good and not prone to much whip saw. I take no position on any macro or fundamental point of view.
    Sep 14, 2010. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does GM Really Think About the Volt?  [View article]
    John, I thought I was filling in my "bio" in that comment! In any case I appreciate your writings on battery technology , EV's etc.
    Aug 25, 2010. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does GM Really Think About the Volt?  [View article]
    Individual Investor. Mainly looking at market timing and CANSLIM type stocks picks. Also interesting in what traders are doing. Continue learning about valuation methods, technology trends, macro trends, economic theory etc for general interest sake and also in terms of portfolio management. Basically I want to buy what is going up and sell what is going down all the rest is for fun.
    Aug 22, 2010. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does GM Really Think About the Volt?  [View article]
    John, thanks . Interesting S-1 observations. I wasnt interested in it until now. Now its a good case study for analysts and accountants.
    Aug 22, 2010. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FinReg Fallout: Like a Bad Drug Interaction  [View article]
    Things are getting quite ludicrous. Thanks for the laughs. Feel like I'm laughing while "Rome is burning".
    Jul 29, 2010. 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will There Be Life After Rating Agencies?  [View article]
    Thanks for the reference. The more info the better. I think the situation now is :how much can be made before it comes down and when.
    May 13, 2010. 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manhattan Bridge Capital: An Actual Ben Graham Value Stock  [View article]
    Interesting, not sure G&D would go near it since they dont speculate in financial's. I like these sorts of ideas as the tangible value is quite definitive (a loan is a clearly defined asset) IF the speculations about realiazable value on the loans or default rate is correct. Now, if we have a recovery, then ,this is a good bet so I could add it to the "if we recover" bets. However, if there is another huge financial system shock etc or 2nd leg down and worse then they could go under, although the fact they survived the last one is a good sign. Not to argue on that too much. Its all speculative. On the subject of whether G and D would approve, i think not. I have actually been reading that book - it takes on real significance post 2008 and I now agree it is a masterpiece of philosophy and insight into the workings of finance. That said, one of my take aways was what I read in that book midway thru the "equity" section where he says that insurance and financials are inherantly speculative. Why? How many financials went under vrs non-financials? At least among what would have appeared to be "solid" companies prior to the shock? You dont see any MS, INTC, PG ,KFT, etc going under but you do see ,C, BAC,WF,GS,LEH,Bear,MS,... etc almost ,for the grace of TARP insolvent or near so. Big lesson here, as G&D surmised in their masterpiece written after the last big financial blow up in 1929 (and 1921 for that matter). So, although this may be a good selection, I wouldnt put in the G&D class for that reason. In any case, welcome to Seeking Alpha, Appreciate your article. These true "Graham and Dodd" ideas are what I am after and I totally agree with you that 99% of the ideas here are speculations.
    May 13, 2010. 03:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Christine Richard's Confidence Game: How a Hedge Fund Manager Called Wall Street's Bluff  [View article]
    Tom. I am interested in your take on the MBIA situation. It got my attention as a bond holder of "AAA" bonds that turned sour during the crisis and still trade way below par. At the time when Ackman was attacking MBIA, of course, I hated him but I don't know enough to know whether MBIA would be able to withstand the crisis on its merits or not (shorts attack adding to the burden). Just prior to the real blow out Barrons was saying what a good business MBIA had and how it would surely survive if only in runoff mode- at least it would keep paying on its commitments. So far so good thanks to bail out supports I suppose and as you recently noted they are getting some recovery from the real fraudsters in this deal -and I hope the succeed. I've been looking around for any presentations from Ackman from that time period but cant find any - just to see when and what he was saying specifically and what data he had to back it up. I'd be interested in any explanation you have to offer on what MBIA's situation really was then and now if you care too or have any links of note for further reading. For what its worth I think the real "enablers" of this crisis were the democrats in terms of pushing easy credit and setting up a system for debt ratings loaded with conflict of interest. Ironic how they take the lead now on "reform". Any insight on BAC would be nice to hear too.
    May 11, 2010. 04:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment