Seeking Alpha

Hiway

Hiway
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Hiway's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Nutrisystem Partnership With Wal-Mart And New CEO Are Game Changers [View article]
    What did she say about the divvy?
    Jun 22 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks carve out new session lows 90 minutes before the bell, the Dow (DIA -1.9%) now off 300 points, but outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY -2.1%) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -2.2%). Long-term Treasury yields have come off their peaks, but remain sharply higher, the 10-year at 2.43%. The 5-year (IEI, FIVZ, TBZ, VGIT) at 1.32% must be starting to look good to anyone who believes the Fed isn't hiking rates for another 2 years. The Dec 2015 Fed Funds futures contract is pricing in 100 bps of hikes between now and then. [View news story]
    China.
    Jun 20 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend And Hires A New CEO [View article]
    I sold my position. I do think that they can and will sustain the divi thru at least this year and into 2014. The problem, as I see it, is that they are selling company assets to pay the divvy, so it's more like a return of capital. There is just too much uncertainty around asset disposition and the PWE entrance as an asset seller adds risk. Finally, there are too many 'ifs'. If the environmental permits come thru, if there is funding, if the BOE (not proven) hit projections, If they can figure out transport. Not saying its not a good or well run company, just think its a bit too speculative. Good luck to all.
    Jun 8 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend And Hires A New CEO [View article]
    Got that. But, their assumption (slide 25 on the website presentation) expects $700mm dispositions by July 1 - 3 weeks away - for their model to work. So, what will give, Lindbergh or capex? If either, the divi is more like return of capital as opposed to a reflection of operations. Another general question for all of these companies is how they move their product without Keystone and without a western route thru BC. (Don't think China is in a buying mood). Thanks.
    Jun 6 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend And Hires A New CEO [View article]
    I'm a shareholder of PGH at a $14 cent profit. Is it troubling that they have not been able to move the assets they have for sale? I think that was expected to fund the distribution and/or capes for this year. Wondering whether I should bail. Thanks.
    Jun 5 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy the (big) dip in the mREITs, say both KBW and RBC Capital. "We think the bond market has over-reacted and mREITs have over-reacted to that over-reaction," says KBW (presumably Bose George). Stocks to buy if the Fed cuts back earlier-than-expected: CMO, HTS, MFA, ANH, DX. Stocks if the Fed continues with the status quo: AGNC, NLY, WMC. RBC favors NLY, MFA, and HTS, but warns AGNC's higher leverage magnifies losses as well as gains. The sector (MORT +1.1%) is continuing with yesterday afternoon's bounce. [View news story]
    Thanks. Today, EFC is taking another hit. Do you think it is adversely impacted by the slowdown in mortgage apps (released today). Trying to figure out why this is tanking....
    Jun 5 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs - Where From Here? [View article]
    Great piece. I'm in EFC, mainly because of what ive read about management. The big worry seems to be more capital raises. Don't think the Fed is going anywhere with PCE and jobs at such low velocity. Haven't been in very long, so my question is what happens when the mREITS issue more shares? Is the dilution reflected in BV? Thanks.
    Jun 5 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy the (big) dip in the mREITs, say both KBW and RBC Capital. "We think the bond market has over-reacted and mREITs have over-reacted to that over-reaction," says KBW (presumably Bose George). Stocks to buy if the Fed cuts back earlier-than-expected: CMO, HTS, MFA, ANH, DX. Stocks if the Fed continues with the status quo: AGNC, NLY, WMC. RBC favors NLY, MFA, and HTS, but warns AGNC's higher leverage magnifies losses as well as gains. The sector (MORT +1.1%) is continuing with yesterday afternoon's bounce. [View news story]
    Does anyone have a take on EFC? selling well less than book,
    Less than 2x levered, 12% yield. Thanks
    Jun 3 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Driving the Increase in Oil Prices [View article]
    "The ONLY CULPRIT is the OIL FUTURES TRADERS PERIOD."

    Are they the culprit or the salvation, pointing out a fundamental change to an economic system running on cheap energy? Assuming that speculation, as opposed to present valuing the recovery, is moving the market's direction and amplitude, the run-up, if not supply and demand is simply pricing the fact of Peak Oil.

    We (the world) are way beyond the ability to provide cheap energy. There is no audited data on how much oil is left in reserves and the peak of production was 2005. Populations are growing and a huge slug of people are moving up the consumerist ladder in India, China and the Gulf nations. Any hope of alternative cheap energy to offset falling production, increasing demand, rusting infrastructure, and an aging workforce is wishful thinking. How should oil be priced? The oil pricing we are witnessing is a transition from oil as a plain old commodity a level spotted at the intersection of supply and demand to pricing as a scarcity that is running out of its economic viability.

    So, if oil is being priced as a scarcity as opposed to commodity, we can expect the price to rise until the next recession, whether it causes it (as Chu is warning) or not. Then it will crash down to higher lows and, upon economic recovery, fairly quickly reach higher highs (until stopped by the next recession).

    The big question, IMO, is not what is causing oil to rise but whether the "new normal" is boom/bust due to the abrupt switch from plenty to scarcity. $147 to $33 to $67 may be de rigeur for an average 10 month period. If so, we're not in Kansas anymore.....
    Jun 1 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Oil Going the Wrong Way, Or Do We Need to Adjust Our Perceptions? [View article]
    -You forgot the one thing that may actually be moving prices, namely the destruction of the US dollar. The dollar is getting killed vs. the $CDN, Euro, etc.
    -Also, I don't think there is a unified global movement or shape to the recovery; China, the Mideast, Canada (at least) seem to be on the road to a V shaped recovery, while "old" Europe may be slower and "new" Europe and the non-OECD a lot slower, if at all.
    -There is also the "Vacuum Theory" (newly named but probably not new in itself) that say that SOMETHING has to lead the markets if we are going to recover. (Notice the conversation is not if, but when, a huge psychological difference from the massive doom and gloom when the banks were teetering a few months ago). If the market leader is not housing, not durable goods, not consumer discretionary spending, not dot.com - what is it? Uh, how about commodities!! Clearly, almost everyone thinks that commodities will do well in a recovery and since we are closer to recovering, people who are buying are buying commodities. Is this speculation? Not if you are in at $33 BOE (March).
    -The question, as always, is whether we are now early or late. The oldest adage of don't fight the tape may likely now apply. Until there is a change in leadership away from commodities there will not be a change of leadership away from commodities. Many energies have gotten killed and are selling at historically low P/Es, even though they've doubled in the last couple of months. (For example, the Canroys). Prudence suggests being long with reasonable stops. There doesn't seem to be anything in the way right now.
    May 28 05:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is an Oil Storm Brewing? [View article]
    Todd - do you have a comment on the Canroys? Particularly HTE and PGH? Thanks
    May 21 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
11 Comments
7 Likes