Seeking Alpha

AJBaker

AJBaker
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View AJBaker's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Vringo's Brazilian injunction against ZTE upheld [View news story]
    The battle between VRNG and ZTE goes to whether ZTE will follow the rule of law worldwide.
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Successful Was The Neuralstem Phase II Trial? [View article]
    The argument is that the CUR intervention did not produce a bell curve of response ... rather something closer to a dumbbell distribution.

    It's kinda like a problem of aggregation in learning theory.... putting all the results of individual learners together made it appear as though the learning occurred gradually but it reality the individuals either got it or they didn't and the appearance of gradual learning was because different individuals got it at different times.

    To illustrate the aggregation problem another way, in my hypothetical drowning problem another way A.F.'s style of reasoning would aggregate the two outcomes and if the average survival time for the whole group at the time of the conclusion did not show a significant difference from an untreated group,(remember some in my example live longer and some die quicker) he'd maintain that nothing effective was done.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Successful Was The Neuralstem Phase II Trial? [View article]
    Assuming that the results remain as they are.... about half are helped substantially and the others are hurt somewhat, would more good than harm be done if the procedure was made available to patients who wanted it?
    Mar 17, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Successful Was The Neuralstem Phase II Trial? [View article]
    That would be worth looking at but the likelihood is that all the patients whether treated with Selegine or nor show pretty much the same pattern of response.

    In other words, no patients in the Selgine trial look like the responders in the CUR trial ... they all look like the non-responders which is basically the natural course of the disease.
    Mar 17, 2015. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Successful Was The Neuralstem Phase II Trial? [View article]
    Your analogy is false because we have no reason to know what the outcome will be for the duckies but in the case of those with this illness we do know. For a better analogy consider that all mice dumped in a pail of water will eventually drown. Then attach air balloons to all the mice. Half the mice survive much longer but half the mice die as before. It is fair to describe the intervention as successful for the mice that survive. It would be better yet if you could tell beforehand which mice would be helped and which wouldn't. Perhaps the mice which survive are the old ones with out teeth who cannot pop their own balloons. This is the state of the CUR research ... disease progression is much reduced in half of a population known to be subject to a rapid decline and the company is currently looking to see whether they can tell why some are helped and some are not.
    Mar 17, 2015. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Feuerstein takes issue with Neuralstem's report of ALS study results [View news story]
    If you are stuck in quick sand and you stop sinking, how much argument do you want to make about whether the situation is going to continue to improve?

    There are times when just maintaining the status quo is a vast improvement.

    They accomplished something like that for slightly less than half the patients. The patients now face the question of whether they wish to continue to die or whether they want to undergo the procedure for a roughly 40 some percent chance of markedly slowing their rate of decline.
    The researchers believe they have a clue as to which people the procedure can help which would make that decision a lot easier.

    Sure, everybody lives is vastly preferable to some live some die but some people live is also vastly preferable to everybody dies.
    Mar 12, 2015. 05:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron getting some Acadia-stoked love [View news story]
    With Gern I was the proud owner of potential source of the aspirin for cancer -- inhibiting the ability of the cancer cells to multiply which is virtual definition of cancer. Then Gern sold at least most of that product to JNJ opting to take a stream of income and dismantled their own group of associated scientists. So now I am the proud -- if involuntary -- owner of a well-funded group of bio-tech oriented venture capitalists?
    Mar 11, 2015. 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Hold In The Face Of Deflation [View article]
    The Bridge to nowhere was a Palin idea. Meanwhile, our infrastructure is crumbling and bridges are actually falling down. Government spending can get me safe highways which is not something I can buy on my own. The question is always whether I can get more bang for my buck by spending it out of my pocket or by buying more government activity by spending it as taxes. Currently, there is more value spending it as taxes.
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tanker Tanks: Term Structure In Oil Screams 'Buy The Dip!' [View article]
    President Obama was elected by a majority of the country... so by your definition that means that a majority of the country is far left?

    Maybe it would be safer for you to invest in solar rather than in oil.
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tanker Tanks: Term Structure In Oil Screams 'Buy The Dip!' [View article]
    Effects of a Pipeline Failure:

    ?In July 2012, the National Transportation Safety Board, the U.S. federal agency with regulatory authority over the failed pipeline, issued a report representing the official conclusion of the investigation into the incident. The investigators found that the operating firm, which had received an automated signal from the pipeline that a breach had occurred, misunderstood or did not believe the signal and attempted to continue to pump dilbit oil through the pipeline for 17 hours after the breach. Local firefighters were notified, and tried to locate the southern Michigan wetland site of the breach, but were initially unable to do so, further delaying the shutdown of the line.[10]

    The NTSB investigation synopsis pointed to corrosion fatigue as the underlying cause of the catastrophic breach. The incident was exacerbated by the pipeline's disbonded polyethylene tape coating. In July 2012, the cost of the cleanup operations was estimated at $767 million.[10] The NTSB stated the Enbridge dilbit oil spill is, as of 2012, the costliest onshore cleanup in U.S. history.[11] NTSB Chair Deborah Hersman likened "Enbridge's poor handling" of the spill to the Keystone Kops, asking: "Why didn't they recognize what was happening, and what took so long?" NPR reported that "NTSB investigators determined that the six-foot gash in the pipe was caused by a flaw in the outside lining which allowed the pipe to crack and corrode. Now, in 2005, Enbridge actually had learned that this section of pipe was cracked and corroding. ... That same 2005 internal report pointed to 15,000 defects in the 40-year-old pipeline. And Enbridge decided not to dig up this [Talmadge Creek] area to inspect it."[12]

    In 2013, in opining on the Keystone XL pipeline proposal, the EPA recommended to the State Department that pipelines that carry tar sands oil should no longer be treated just like pipelines that carry any other oil. Stephen Hamilton, an ecology professor at Michigan State University and the independent science adviser at Talmadge Creek, detailed the challenges and expense of the still-ongoing Michigan cleanup"

    You were saying.....?
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tanker Tanks: Term Structure In Oil Screams 'Buy The Dip!' [View article]
    "What they really want is for the oil to be left in the ground. "

    Gee, I wonder why?

    Actually what they want and we need is to keep CO2 out of the atmosphere. There is ongoing research on how to recapture CO2 and store it in rocks in the ground. It does seem a little ridiculous to dig the stuff up, burn it and then try to recapture the CO2 and stick it back down in the ground. Oil and coal are excellent, stable pre-existing means of disposing of excess CO2 in the ground and it costs no energy to leave it there.

    It seems likely that after you go through all the extraction procedures and all the CO2 recapture provisions if they prove feasible, that you might very well have been ahead putting the money into energy conservation and renewables than on the Keystone.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Deflation Update [View article]
    Birds of a feather with no concern for other people and a gift for celebrating pure selfishness.
    Jan 29, 2015. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Deflation Update [View article]
    Just how many consumers without debt are you aware of?

    The one percent are going to be reduced to taking in each other's washing since no one else is going to have any money to buy anything with.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Hold In The Face Of Deflation [View article]
    Oh, really? And how do you explain the fact that the US which did QE first is doing best?

    Also, check your historical data:

    "Two years after the Greek program began, the I.M.F. looked for historical examples where Greek-type programs, attempts to pay down debt through austerity without major debt relief or inflation, had been successful. It didn’t find any."

    Krugman quoting I.M. F.
    Jan 26, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Ditch Vringo On This Pop [View article]
    If I buy a hopper of grain and someone steals some of it, taking them to court is not playing "gotcha". It's defending my property. Nor would you object if I made money selling that grain.

    How is it different if I buy a basket of intellectual property?
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:18 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
94 Comments
163 Likes