AlfieJr

Apple May Find Itself at Risk in Legacy Core Business

Good timing! you worried about the future of Apple "legacy core" desktops just minutes before the stunning new iMacs were announced, which once again demonstrate Apple makes the world's best consumer computer. actually, the real star of this show may be the bundled new Magic Mouse, which for the first time really makes touch UI work on a desktop (HP's Touchsmarts are ergonomic disasters). and this $69 little critter will also work with any older Mac that is running Snow Leopard!

It's All About the Apple Ecosystem

you're right, it is about the "ecosystem." but you missed the #1 overarching marketing message Apple was launching at WWDC, which we will hear all this year leading to the SL/Win7 showdown in the fall:

Speed.

Apple extensively emphasized the much faster speeds of Safari 4, Snow Leopard, and iPhone 3GS throughout the presentation. it even included speed comparisons with other browsers.

i've got to think Apple intends to focus on the speed issue for the SL/Win7 showdown. Windows 7 beta users have not reported big speed improvements over Vista, which has been generally criticized for being somewhat slow, and multitasking remains particularly weak. if Apple can legitimately claim that SL is significantly faster ("snappier" for consumers), it has the "premium" marketing factor it needs to continue to say OS X is superior.

the #2 marketing message from WWDC was price - lower prices. but everyone did notice that.

Three Strikes from Apple and Palm May Be Out

The whole premise that the Pre is competing head-to-head in the market with the iPhone in 2009 is very wrong.

with the initial restriction to USA Sprint users only, the Pre is instead going directly against the other Sprint smartphone options - RIM, WinMobile, Nokia, Android, etc. this is the battle it has to win to survive this year. it is only competing with Apple for the smaller market fraction of likely "switchers" to/from any telco, but that is a side issue for it in 2009.

Palm is very happy, tho, to see all the iPhone vs. Pre write ups in the press like this one. because that gives it tons of free publicity that it needs to make a real market impact. it can't afford to buy its own. that's why it will release the Pre two days before Apple's WWDC next month, to really set up those comparison pieces. and if the Pre gets a lot of positive reviews, that strategy is likely to work.

yes, the Pre needs to sell 8 million units a year - in 2010. but in 2009 it just needs to sell half that to get established, and then expand sales internationally. that should be achievable if it is a good product compared to the other non-Apple 2009 smartphones.

on price, the rebate approach is a drawback. but Sprint apparently has chosen to compete instead on the monthly service plan cost, pushing that down somewhat. over the lifetime of the contract that is a notably bigger number of course. we'll see how the market responds to this approach.

if the Pre with its apps is a good consumer product - we don't really know yet - it has a good chance because the smartphone market outside of Apple and RIM is really up in the air. and if it expands its availability in 2010 internationally and then to other US telcos, Palm actually could come back from near death.

as to stock prices, that is all BS speculation gaming anyway. i'm amazed anyone still thinks the short term market is anything more than that.