Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View azatlin's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Caesars losses mount on weakness in Atlantic City, regional markets [View news story]
    (Disclaimer: I don't have a position in CZR but I did recommend shorting them)

    This is a real estate company, not a gambling den. Most of their properties are old and in dire need of TLC, but that's like saying that they are the worst house in a neighborhood where values always go up.

    As long as they can make the interest payments, there's money here.
    And if cash flow becomes a problem, they can sell off some properties. Bally's Vegas alone would go for at least $2B (undeveloped land and the New Frontier (a crappier casino across from the Wynn) just went for $1.2B and Blackstone paid $1.7B for the Cosmopolitan).

    And cash flow is very much a problem.
    Instead of rising revenues or better gross margins or both, they face flat revenues and falling gross margins.

    The story is a bit muddied by the casino closings and some financial shell-game activity. But overall the debt-load is putting a squeeze on them at a time when they are losing money.

    And they have a bad mix of properties, unlike MGM. CZR has concentrated on the low-end, and lower-income gamblers are AWOL.

    Worse, this is the economic peak. We are now into the 6th year of a recovery. That means revenue growth isn't likely to improve much.

    The problem for CZR is that they are a real estate company behaving like a gambling company. They don't want to sell-off properties, but that's exactly what real estate is all about.
    Aug 11, 2014. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trades Only Institutional Investors Get To See [View instapost]
    Not sure what your questions are. Please expand:
    What do you mean 'odds'?
    What do you mean by 'spread'?
    Why do you think I can't watch all these?

    This is very simple: I am giving you a 3 day trade with specific open/close dates
    Not every trade works, obviously. But most yield positive returns.

    I am watching each of these trades and the specific entry/exit price. You can as well.
    (Note: the actual earnings release dates may vary sometimes from the dates listed, so do be careful)

    When you do the math, you will show the results I show.
    For example, in the prior week, there were 50 trades. The cumulative 1 week yield for all those 50 trades - assuming same dollar per trade - was 53%. Averaged across all 50 trades, 1.06%.

    Please let me know if you have any more questions.
    May 10, 2014. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trades Only Hedge Funds Get To See [View instapost]
    In response to questions about the strategy: it all comes down to math.

    The average return when a company surprises on earnings = 5%

    At 60% accuracy, for every 10 calls, I will be right 6 times and wrong 4 times. On average, the wrong calls are offset by the right calls, and that leaves 2 right calls or 10% return (5% * 2).
    That 10% is 1% on average per trade. That's about what I have been getting the last 8 months.

    How good is a 1%? Considering that this is a 3 day trade, 1% translates into a 235% annualized return. And that's before any compounding.

    The focus is always on improving accuracy.
    When accuracy falls below 50%, returns go negative. The weeks of Feb 17 and 24 saw a 45% accuracy rate.
    Conversely, the latest 2 weeks saw 67% and 60% accuracy. Returns averaged 2%+.

    Over time, I have come to know how to achieve 70% accuracy. That is for fee
    Mar 14, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Akamai Technologies Is Overvalued [View article]
    You misunderstood what Leighton and Chambers said. You fundamentally misunderstand their businesses. Cisco has never been in the space occupied by AKAM.

    But you have an agenda and I have none
    Oct 29, 2013. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Akamai Technologies Is Overvalued [View article]
    Cisco competing with AKAM? How? Cisco is a hardware vendor. AKAM deploys that hardware to provide their service.
    In fact, CSCO has an equity position in AKAM

    That mistake alone shows that this analysis has no merit
    Oct 21, 2013. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: The Chipmaker Of The Future? [View article]
    Intel's latest chips have unleashed a storm of pro-Intel vs Pro-ARM arguments. And AMD is hanging their hat on ARM

    Pro-Intel: Manufacturing strength (process and scale), deep pockets
    Anti-Intel: Expensive, does not play well with other companies, not a good mobile solution (no LTE or graphics), customers actively seek an alternative source

    Pro-ARM: Cheap, perfect for mobility, well-known (lots of ARM-savvy engineers), strong ecosystem of support
    Anti-ARM: Intel competition, not a power performance leader

    Sometimes the 'best' doesn't win. Business considerations are key, especially price and accessibility. Sony's Betamax lost to the VCR because Sony wouldn't share whereas a consortium supported the VCR. Intel is notorious for wanting to dominate the pie instead of gaining more money by growing the pie but with a smaller size.

    The price/performance issue is up in the air. As Feldman notes, cost and time to market favor ARM much more dramatically than Intel. Intel won a space on Samsung's tablet by dropping the price dramatically and offering 50 engineers for free.
    Price - not horsepower - was infinitely more important. And ARM will always have the edge. And that matters more as the growth markets are in China and India.

    Another barrier to entry is familiarity. How easy is it to get engineers who can design-in the chip and develop software? ARM-savvy engineers are everywhere. If Whirlpool wants to offer an internet-ready fridge, they can use ARM chip easily. Not so with Intel.

    So ARM can continue to get design wins across a broad spectrum of products. And they can expand into servers as well. As AMD shows, there is a market for ARM-based products that will erode Intel's dominance.
    Jun 20, 2013. 04:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ARM Singularity [View article]
    Well said.
    Having the biggest, baddest engine is not important in the mobile space. Other considerations beyond price and power efficiency are easy adoption. ARM is expanding its reach because they are a known entity. If a company wants a MPU designed in, getting an ARM experienced engineer is easier than getting an Intel savvy engineer.

    This is why Intel had to boost their 6 person engineering team supporting tablets to 50. There aren't enough engineers at potential customers who can integrate Intel's solution, so Intel essentially has to bring their own.

    And this is a tablet. The consumer market doesn't need a stronger CPU to read emails and watch Netflix. The gamer market wants solid graphics chips, something Intel lacks and something NVidia already offers with ARM integrated.

    It's not the first time Intel has pushed something (IvyBridge),claimed to have amazing specs, but misread the market.
    Jun 12, 2013. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Most Innovative Products Have Intel Inside [View article]

    Intel is struggling. Why not mention that their CPU has no LTE solution - it is DOA in the mobility market. The Samsung tablet is a joke: they paid Samsung to get included in a tablet. That's desperation.

    And they aren't just failing technically. They are failing from a marketing standpoint. They have priced themselves out of the mobility market, as well as the commoditizing MPU market. ARM, on the other hand, keeps executing flawlessly in these growing markets. That's why they dominate today and for the next 3 generations.

    It's easier to find an ARM SDK savvy engineer than an x86 one.

    I will buy every ARM share you want to sell.
    Jun 10, 2013. 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings Starts To Sound Desperate [View article]
    You are cherry picking your data. If anything, Intel has been caught red-handed exaggerating their specs. A few months back they announced their chip was better than the Tegra...Tegra 2 that is. An obsolete chip.

    Intel is desperate to get into the market and they offered massive free resources (50 engineers) and dirt cheap prices to Samsung. The need to buy position suggests that the chip doesn't perform as well as ARM. Which is a given based on Intel's worse GPU performance

    It's like Android vs. Apple. There are now tons more Android savvy engineers and so designing for Android is cheaper and more broadly supported. Same with ARM. It's just easier to do ARM.

    Intel's pricing also showed that they still don't get it. ARM has them beat for the next 2 generations (2+ years). And the China/India markets will be a major boost for them.

    Sorry, you got a short term win. But behind the recent Intel PR blitz is the fact that they will fail again.

    Intel not ARM is desperate.

    (yeah, I own ARM)
    Jun 5, 2013. 10:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment