Seeking Alpha

wheatvschaff

wheatvschaff
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View wheatvschaff's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • MoneyGram: Impact Of Wal-Mart News Underappreciated, 40%+ Downside [View article]
    You are welcome. The 12% increase in transaction volume was stated by the CEO in the conference call (you did listen to that, right?) and the lack of change to guidance seems obvious to me given (1) the strength in Q1 results, (2) the very short period in which to assess the impact on MGI's business (a handful of days) and (3) the CEO's point about the fact that 75+% of their transaction are in the under $200 category, resulting in a modest potential savings for a customer to switch to another service provider and receive at a WMT. To clarify, when I referred to not changing guidance I meant operating guidance. The accretive effect of the block share repurchase might allow them to actually raise EPS guidance for 2014, but I think they might hold back on that until they get farther in the year and have a better sense on their business trends

    The WMT news is a clear negative, but the stock price has already adjusted considerably and the point at which we might know the revenue impact, potential price matching and cost reductions are still months away. In my experience, shorting is at least as much about timing than it is about being fundamentally right in the long run. I don't think this is a smart time to be short. We will find out tomorrow.
    Apr 28 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MoneyGram: Impact Of Wal-Mart News Underappreciated, 40%+ Downside [View article]
    Nice "analysis". Back when i was running a hedge fund, if one of my analysts presented what you just did, I would have thrown it back in his/her face with instructions to re-think the most basic assumptions and then come up with something realistic.

    You've eliminated all the revenue that in question, without any drop in operating expenses? How realistic is that?? It looks to me that the only intellectually honest portion of your "analysis" is that your disclose that you are short the stock.

    You may wish to hold off on shorting more ahead of the earnings call on April 29 (4 trading days from now), so you can find out how astute your short call is when the company reports 12% increase in transaction volume in Q1, makes no change to 2104 guidance, and notes the accretive affect of the recent block share repurchase. You should be able to short lots more at $14.50-$15.50 at that time.
    Apr 24 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Muddy Waters NQ Mobile Report Card [View article]
    Right on the money and very well written. Thanks for exposing the distortion based front-running that somehow is accepted as hard hitting and insightful analysis. If a legitimate sell side firm took a position before publishing such a one-sided and self-serving piece of "research", the SEC would be all over them. Why do they look the other way when MW does it?
    Nov 11 02:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChinaCast Education: Curious Dealings Raise Red Flags [View article]
    Mr. Boyd says... Disclosure: I have no economic engagement with this company's "securities, long or short......."

    Oh really?? How delicately put. So, you want us to believe that you write these short-biased stories as a public service? How ironic that someone who insinuates deception by a public company engages in that very act himself. "You have no economic engagement with this company's securities"... literally means you do not personally have a long or short position. Ok, I can accept that might be true. But I truly doubt that you have no economic incentive to write these stories. Instead, what I believe is that you work for a fund that is short or that you work for a "research firm" that is compensated by someone who short.

    Oh and by the way, someone else wrote a series of similar "articles" beginning about a month ago. She also claimed not to be "holding a position" in ChinaCast. Probably also true, but highly misleading as I know it to be true she is being paid by those who are short to write these stories.

    I guess her hit pieces were losing the battle in the face of continuous and heavy insider buying. So, you were brought in as second voice. Same tired argument from another paid mouthpiece.

    My disclosure: I'm long CAST (a lot of it).
    Mar 30 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite 20% Rally, FUQI International Still Heading for Delisting [View article]
    try visiting the company, as i have. you might find it useful and informative. and you might see the situation quite differently
    Mar 14 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acorn International: The Most Undervalued Chinese Stock [View instapost]
    Agreed. Holding this stock in my portfolio. Here's how I see it:

    ATV has 172 million in net cash and investments, which is $5.90 per ADS. It also carries its 33% interest in the stock software company at cost, which undervalues that asset. And, of course it has a TV shopping business that will do about $290 million in revs and $10+ million in net income. Hard to see how the sum of these parts are worth anything less $8 per share. Finally, the Guthy-Renker deal could add a lot to 2010 revs and earnings.
    Dec 15 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Acorn International to Grow into a Mighty Oak [View article]
    look for increasing institutional interest in ATV as they will make three conference appearances in the US next month and will conduct a non-deal road show thru several cities
    Sep 23 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Marine Foods Group Builds on Its Solid Reputation [View article]
    Have a look at LTON and ATV. Both are profitable, cash generating businesses trading at a discount to net cash.


    On May 26 11:20 AM WhiteTiger wrote:

    > You make a valid point and one I have gone back and forth on several
    > times. Since we use valuation assumptions typically used for United
    > States stocks and U.S. Listed Chinese stocks are generally attracting
    > American funds we have decided to bring financials in parity with
    > United States companies. As you probably know Chinese stocks that
    > are just listed in the Shanghai tend to have higher P/E ratios than
    > their counterparts in the USA. Does this mean that we should apply
    > the same P/E? With that being said I see no problem with investors
    > who prefer to use a 25% tax rate for Chinese EPS conversions. Regardless,
    > I think we can both agree that CMFO seems like a pretty compelling
    > opportunity, even when using an aggressive tax assumption. We are
    > in the process of including valuation calculators on our website
    > so investors can use their own assumptions to develop their own scenarios.
    >
    >
    > What else are you buying?
    >
    > The GeoTeam
    May 27 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Marine Foods Group Builds on Its Solid Reputation [View article]
    I am also following CMFO. In my opinion, the points made are quite good, wtih one exception. China Marine generates zero revenues and income in the US... it is all in mainland China. Thus US tax rates are not applicable. The tax rate in China is approximately 25%, unless the company qualifies for tax relief, which China Marine does. CMFO's tax rate is approximately 15%, although it may trend up toward 25% over time if certain tax incentives are not extended by the PRC govt. Regardless, using a 36% tax rate is much too high, and understates the company earnings and overstates its PE. This company's stock is super cheap, especially in relation to its growth and its cash of $1.40 per share and growing.
    May 22 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9 Comments
5 Likes