Gold: It's OK To Be Wrong, It's Not OK To Stay Wrong [View article]
The dollar has only been off of a gold standard since 1971, and it has not held its value since then. It is only hubris that you write of gold's irrelevance. It is actually the dollar that has no intrinsic value. Promises by politicians and central bankers not to inflate are also free of intrinsic value. Every fiat currency ever issued has eventually failed. Gold is anti-fragile, and is held as an insurance policy...it really is not an investment. 5,000 years of human history is not likely to be proven wrong by a blip of a weekly sell-off.
Cramer's Mad Money - Does Your Portfolio Have FANGs? (2/5/13) [View article]
FANGS? Flashback to Cramer in 2000....the Winners of the World...great lesson in predictability (link to original article is below...not to be missed). When a press release from Cramer said $300 NFLX was possible, it reminded me of $1000 or $1111 AAPL predictions. Everybody hated NFLX 6 months ago in the 50s, and now they love it.
Will LinkedIn's International And Job Postings Earnings Growth Support Its Stock Price? [View article]
After the market went full retard post NFLX earnings, does anyone have the desire and the will to short LNKD here? Even a bear call spread seems unrewarding.
Herbalife Company Statement Regarding Ackman Allegations [View article]
I have no skin in the game, but there appear to be some ethical issues here. The put volume is suspicious and the timing of the conference tomorrow is suspicious. Frankly, he could have bought the puts, made the announcement, and made 400-500% gains in one day...even if he has nothing new to say. Any major hedge fund manager can do this with today's internet and news distribution. With full respect to freedom of speech, perhaps any professional should only be permitted to publicize portfolio positions after a delay of so many days. This is yet another example of a crooked market weighing against the small investor. Wall Street is losing a generation of stock investors, and they won't return with all of this "carnie" type action, HFT quote stuffing, crazy FB IPO action, etc...
Netflix: Morgan Stanley Correct That Concerns Over Competition, Streaming Costs Are Overblown [View article]
Fundamentally I agree with the other commenters...the valuation seems rich at these levels, and the greater fool theory seems to be at work here. Technically, I can take a ruler and trace what looks like an HFT Skynet autobot buy program. The chart looks as straight as CMG from January-April 2012 before that tanked. As much as an easy target as this should be to short, it looks as though some type of computer program is controlling stocks like NFLX. There is no human pattern to the chart. I just take my ruler out and sell OTM bear call spreads above the target point. Full disclosure: I am dumb money.
Thanks for the article and the analysis. Negativity seemed to peak with the Sunday night downgrade by Citi's TRIO of analysts (as opposed to the Palm Treo).
I would like to see an increased buyback with the selloff and the accumulating cash pile. Obviously a decreased outstanding share count would increase your EPS and growth rate over time.
Given that this stock trades at a CSCO-INTC-MSFT PE multiple, something has to change.
A Simple Options Bet On Apple That Could Make 62% In One Month [View article]
Thanks for the article and the idea. I had been using naked put options on AAPL but given the volatility lately, I will sleep better with the bull put spread in place. I opened a $495/490 this AM and will see how that goes. Any thoughts to rounding out the iron condor on the call side after AAPL gets run up some more?
Lululemon Perhaps The Best Buy In Retail [View article]
Thanks for the link. I agree that competition leads to P/E compression. Simple capitalism. One competitor not mentioned is North Face...my kids bought what looked like LULU pants but were in fact North Face branded. I don't assume a selloff is warranted but I expect the "E" to have to catch up with the "P."
Netflix Could Go Bankrupt In Less Than 5 Years [View article]
Thanks for the article. Clearly the crowd has been polarized by it. I agree with the general premise that the streaming costs are going up and the subscription base may be flattening. That will be a problem any way you slice it. P/E compression will likely occur as well.
Netflix is risky for so many reasons. They are forced to ante up for content repeatedly, as they never purchase anything into perpetuity. They are also dependent on broadband technology - at some point if significant subscriber growth resumes, the broadband networks get stretched and overuse charges could accrue to the consumer as a result. NFLX will not be able to piggyback for free and for unlimited usage forever.
Speaking of technology, the quality of NFLX isn't 1080 as far as I know. With the advent of 3D home TVs coming, will this company become obsolete as many tech companies do? Three to five years is a long time in techland, and this IS a tech company.
With so many questions, I am shocked that stockholders will pay such a high multiple for promises. I think the stock is supported for an upcoming secondary....just like last year. Good luck to all; I remain short low delta OTM calls.
8 Reasons To Buy Gold And Other Inflation Protection Now [View article]
"Never let 'em hold your gold and never let 'em hold your wife." Take it from me; I have neither now! Seriously, there are enough questions about GLD to raise some eyebrows. CEF, PHYS and SGOL seem to be actually allocated and safer.
The Performance Of Diamond Food's Brands Could Lead To Oak Tree Buyout [View article]
Thanks for the informative article, and I appreciate the dissenting opinions as well. I am by definition "dumb money" and am short $11 puts for DEC and JAN as of today.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Lingering Disconnect Favors The Bear Case [View article]
There is no need for Nestle or KO to buy GMCR. The k-cup patent is kaput. KO knows how to market, and Nestle already has a single serve machine. The accounting issues are still a concern with respect to any takeover; witness the HP debacle.
What's Going On With Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
Would the makeup of various indices that sector ETFs use be affected by this purchase of non-core assets?
Maybe the company will spin off it's copper and gold holdings into a new company...the whole thing sounds absurd and unnecessary. There is a conflict of interest and incestual relationship between the boards apparently. If it is not self-serving, then FCX may know what the market does not and it becomes a good deal in the future.
Netflix Strikes Streaming Deal With Disney, Gains Exclusive Access To New Titles Beginning In 2016 [View article]
How can one value a business deal without knowing the cost? As a public company, they should be forced to inform investors of the cost of the deal. It is absurd that the stock jumped almost 15% without knowing the details. I suspect that they paid an awful lot of money since the deal was exclusive AND Disney was willing to accept the money even three years away. Shouldn't Disney shareholders have the right to know how much money the company's content was loaned out for?
All of the comparisons to HBO are fine, but if the stock trades at a media HBO-type multiple or P/E, look out below. I suspect that NFLX has pretty well saturated the US market, and their revenue stream may not pay for their off balance sheet content obligation costs in the future - but we won't get a report until January or February during the next earnings release. Buyer beware until then.
Mall-based retailers and department stores are holding up relatively well in early trading after the effect of Hurricane Sandy was lined up as a major Q4 headwind. The trick now is to figure out which retail firms can recover lost sales. Two notables exceptions to the subdued trading pattern - J.C. Penney (JCP -4.8%) and Sears (SHLD -6.5%) - had a slightly higher percentage of stores in the path of Hurricane Sandy than the average in the sector. [View news story]
What is keeping this stock afloat? Up over 10% in two weeks...even before the storm came.
Gold: It's OK To Be Wrong, It's Not OK To Stay Wrong [View article]
Cramer's Mad Money - Does Your Portfolio Have FANGs? (2/5/13) [View article]
http://bit.ly/gghLmE
Will LinkedIn's International And Job Postings Earnings Growth Support Its Stock Price? [View article]
Herbalife Company Statement Regarding Ackman Allegations [View article]
Netflix: Morgan Stanley Correct That Concerns Over Competition, Streaming Costs Are Overblown [View article]
Apple Now Priced For 4% Growth [View article]
I would like to see an increased buyback with the selloff and the accumulating cash pile. Obviously a decreased outstanding share count would increase your EPS and growth rate over time.
Given that this stock trades at a CSCO-INTC-MSFT PE multiple, something has to change.
A Simple Options Bet On Apple That Could Make 62% In One Month [View article]
Lululemon Perhaps The Best Buy In Retail [View article]
Netflix Could Go Bankrupt In Less Than 5 Years [View article]
Netflix is risky for so many reasons. They are forced to ante up for content repeatedly, as they never purchase anything into perpetuity. They are also dependent on broadband technology - at some point if significant subscriber growth resumes, the broadband networks get stretched and overuse charges could accrue to the consumer as a result. NFLX will not be able to piggyback for free and for unlimited usage forever.
Speaking of technology, the quality of NFLX isn't 1080 as far as I know. With the advent of 3D home TVs coming, will this company become obsolete as many tech companies do? Three to five years is a long time in techland, and this IS a tech company.
With so many questions, I am shocked that stockholders will pay such a high multiple for promises. I think the stock is supported for an upcoming secondary....just like last year. Good luck to all; I remain short low delta OTM calls.
8 Reasons To Buy Gold And Other Inflation Protection Now [View article]
The Performance Of Diamond Food's Brands Could Lead To Oak Tree Buyout [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Lingering Disconnect Favors The Bear Case [View article]
What's Going On With Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
Maybe the company will spin off it's copper and gold holdings into a new company...the whole thing sounds absurd and unnecessary. There is a conflict of interest and incestual relationship between the boards apparently. If it is not self-serving, then FCX may know what the market does not and it becomes a good deal in the future.
Netflix Strikes Streaming Deal With Disney, Gains Exclusive Access To New Titles Beginning In 2016 [View article]
All of the comparisons to HBO are fine, but if the stock trades at a media HBO-type multiple or P/E, look out below. I suspect that NFLX has pretty well saturated the US market, and their revenue stream may not pay for their off balance sheet content obligation costs in the future - but we won't get a report until January or February during the next earnings release. Buyer beware until then.
Mall-based retailers and department stores are holding up relatively well in early trading after the effect of Hurricane Sandy was lined up as a major Q4 headwind. The trick now is to figure out which retail firms can recover lost sales. Two notables exceptions to the subdued trading pattern - J.C. Penney (JCP -4.8%) and Sears (SHLD -6.5%) - had a slightly higher percentage of stores in the path of Hurricane Sandy than the average in the sector. [View news story]